编者按： 在谋划中国经济下一个五年发展的过程中，如何在复杂环境下稳增长稳预期，是各界关注的核心议题。 近期，各方特别是经济学界对消费和投资在宏观调控中的作用有一些讨论。清华大学中国发展规划研究 院常务副院长董煜，曾深度参与多轮五年规划编制，对宏观经济运行逻辑与政策落地路径有着深刻理 解，本文围绕上述议题提出一些想法和建议。 无论看消费还是看投资，都要算大账。在促消费工作中，既要做好增加投入的"加法"，也要做好减少限 制的"减法"。在稳投资工作中，要更多加入对未来收益和综合效益的考量，给民间资本更好的回报预 期，也要努力遏制无效和低效投资。还要看到，消费和投资之间本来就存在相互促进的关系，消费增长 点可以拉动新的投资，投资也能通过传导机制创造新的就业和消费。 近期各方讨论中国稳增长的举措时，对以促消费还是稳投资为主做好宏观调控有一些不同观点，请问您 如何看待这些声音，宏观政策应该如何取舍？ 董煜：当前经济运行的主要矛盾在需求侧，解决有效需求不足问题需要持续扩大内需，在宏观政策的目 标和手段上，促消费和稳投资都是非常重要的着力点。 消费和投资在增长中的作用，一直是宏观学界高度关注的问题。在不同的阶段，问题的表现、 ...

从最新数据来看，前8个月，固定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下 降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下降；8月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降；8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.9%。 展望四季度，宏观政策将坚持"稳中求进"总基调，财政政策与货币政策协同发力，重点在于提升政策效 能与市场预期。 当前，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，短期波动不改长期向好基本面。四季度是全年经济收官的冲 刺阶段，更是政策发力的重要窗口期。《证券日报》记者采访了多位业内人士，深入剖析四季度宏观经 济走势，精准探寻政策发力点。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平认为，为推动经济平稳增长，保障实现年初确定的预期目 标，四季度需尽快完善、下达"两重"建设和中央预算内投资项目清单，加快地方专项债、一般国债、超 长期特别国债等的发行与资金落地，尽快形成扩大内需的实际政策效果。 货币政策方面，伍超明预计或将保持连续性、稳定性，维持宽松基调和流动性充裕状况不变；但面对银 行息差压力、居民存款收益下降、政策效果不佳等制约，加之经济循环改善、物价回 ...

人头攒动的活动现场 活动期间的时代广场，从清晨展区开市到夜晚灯光亮起，70个参展商家的展位前始终人头攒动。市民们携家带口穿梭在展区中，询价、体验、下单的声音交 织成热闹的节日乐章，满是地道的"人间烟火气"。丰富多元的展销商品，让现场成为名副其实的"长寿特色宝藏集市"，其中四类展位尤为亮眼： 河塘残疾人创业团队展位 10月7日晚，重庆市长寿区时代广场灯火璀璨，为期8天的"爱尚重庆·购在长寿"2025金秋消费季活动圆满落下帷幕。这场集购物、公益、科创、文化于一体 的消费盛宴，以"政府引领、平台支持、商户让利"为核心模式，最终实现销售额突破千万元大关、日均客流量超3万人次、带动周边餐饮住宿等相关消费提 升30%的预定目标，品牌曝光量等核心指标也全部达标。这次活动不仅点燃了国庆期间的消费热情，更在经济、产业、民生层面彰显出了深远意义。 2025金秋消费季活动圆满收官现场 公益与科创展区温情涌动。河塘残疾人创业团队展位前，负责人夏兴兵细致地为市民介绍手工编织篮与刺绣挂件。这个成立于2023年的创业团队，已建 成"1+N"助残生态链，作为长寿区"残疾人阳光就业帮扶基地"帮扶200余名残疾人就业增收，他们的工艺品凭借精湛工 ...

Group 1 - The city government emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to drive high-quality economic development, aligning with national strategies and local policies [1][3] - There is a focus on adapting to new consumer demands driven by demographic changes, such as aging and declining birth rates, by enhancing management and service quality in various sectors [3][5] - The government aims to foster new business models and enhance the competitiveness of local enterprises through innovation in commercial practices and infrastructure improvements [5][7] Group 2 - The promotion of electric vehicle sales is prioritized, with incentives and comprehensive services being implemented to stimulate consumer interest during holiday periods [7] - The logistics sector is encouraged to integrate with manufacturing and agriculture, developing new business models like cold chain logistics and cross-border e-commerce to create vibrant consumption scenarios [7] - The government plans to establish a modern logistics system to reduce costs and improve efficiency, while actively attracting businesses in e-commerce and logistics to the region [7]

同时，依托松山湖万象汇等商业综合体及商圈区位优势，东莞中行推出"锦绣中行"收单商户消费 季、"中银智慧付支付有温度"、"双节同庆支付有礼"以及信用卡商户类微信营销等多重活动，进一步刺 激消费需求，助推消费市场持续升温。 在推行消费补贴的同时，东莞中行还主动对接政府贴息政策，精准推出消费贷款贴息服务，降低居民融 资成本，并配套发放微信立减金等惠民福利，提升民众消费意愿，自9月1日贴息政策实施以来，仅11天 即为700位客户成功投放消费贷款近1亿元，切实拉动消费增长。 针对汽车、家电、家装等大宗消费领域，东莞中行推出"中银汽车·焕新分期""中银惠分期""中银家装·安 居分期""中银家居家电焕新分期"等服务方案，为客户打造更契合以旧换新需求的特色模式，助力提振 消费。此外，积极联合保时捷、极氪、蔚来等汽车品牌，开展"试乘试驾"活动，营造多样化消费氛围， 释放汽车消费潜力。截至2025年8月末，东莞中行累计开展"试乘试驾"活动超50场，吸引近1000人次参 与。 支付是居民消费交易中必不可少的一环。东莞中行积极响应国家关于提升支付服务便利化的号召，今年 7月份，在中国人民银行东莞市分行、东莞市商务局和东莞市委金融办的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies by the central government aims to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand through financial collaboration, reducing credit costs for residents and businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The new subsidy policies provide a 1% interest subsidy for one year, with potential extensions or expansions in support scope [1]. - As of August, the government allocated approximately 420 billion yuan in subsidies, leading to over 2.9 trillion yuan in goods sales [2]. - The policies are designed to enhance consumer willingness and capacity, benefiting upstream and downstream industries [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - China's consumption sector has significant growth potential, transitioning from goods to service consumption, with areas like elderly care and high-quality services presenting market opportunities [3]. - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in growth momentum [3]. - The balance of consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, stood at 21.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.34%, which is relatively low compared to previous years [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Coordination - Stakeholders are encouraged to ensure the effective implementation of the subsidy policies, focusing on simplifying processes and enhancing efficiency [4]. - Banks are advised to manage credit funds responsibly, ensuring they are used for genuine consumption or business activities [4]. - A coordinated approach among fiscal, financial, industrial, and investment policies is essential to support consumption and improve living standards [5].

特朗普从2018年就开始搞关税壁垒，对中国商品加税，目的是逼企业把生产线挪回本土。 可现在，美国制造业就业只剩1200多万，产业链不全，成本高企。苹果之类的公司宁可去印度设厂，也不愿全回美国。智库报告显示，关税推高了美国通 胀，消费者物价指数在2025年4月同比涨2.3%，制造业成本涨了2%到4.5%，不少工厂关门，职位流失。 特朗普的金主马斯克都公开反对，说这伤了电动车供应链。美联储主席在国会听证会上承认，关税带来的通胀压力会延续到2026年。 美国想重振制造业没错，但底层逻辑有问题，它已经是金融帝国，精英都跑去华尔街了，底层工人适应不了高科技生产线。 结果呢，2025年美国制造业职位继续下滑，劳工部数据说连续四个月丢了上万个岗位。 我国正好相反，从制造大国转向消费大国已经是国家战略。过去中国靠出口和投资，工业产量占全球45%，但消费只占13%，美国3.3亿人消费却占全球 29%。 中国从2023年起就大力推内需，2024年出台贸易升级方案，补贴家电汽车消费。2025年更猛，3月设5%增长目标，300亿人民币补贴启动，覆盖以旧换新。 5月麦肯锡报告说，中国城市家庭消费涨2.3%，7月发1500亿特别国债刺激 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 猜想一：量的增长，对应"十五五"规划时期，经济增速目标维持在4.5%-5%区间，兼顾远景目标与潜在增 长水平。 核心观点： "十五五"时期是我国乘势而上迈向基本实现社会主义现代化的关键五年，规划将致力于实现质的提升与量 的增长协同并进，其最终目标则锚定于人的全面发展与全体人民共同富裕。我们理解，"十五五"规划将围 绕三大核心主线展开：科技引领、内需提振与安全发展；而稳定经济增速、提升全要素生产率、加速人工 智能应用落地、稳定制造业占比、更多资源"投资于人"则是重要政策抓手。 五年规划对中国经济发挥着重要的引领性作用 十四个五年规划，服务于不同时期的发展诉求。从"一五"到"五五"，奠定工业化基础；自"六五"至"十二 五"，着重解 ...

Core Viewpoint - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for economic stability and security, with a series of policies implemented to address challenges such as insufficient effective demand and the coexistence of demand shortages and overcapacity in certain industries [2][3][10]. Group 1: Historical Context and Importance - Since the implementation of the coastal opening policy in 1978, external demand has played a significant role in domestic economic growth. The Asian financial crisis in 1998 prompted the first emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a fundamental strategy for economic development [5]. - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the importance of "comprehensively expanding domestic demand" as a key task, reflecting an evolved understanding of its urgency and significance [5][10]. Group 2: Role of Consumption - Consumption is identified as a vital engine for economic growth, with historical data showing a low consumption rate of 35.6% in 2010. Recent policies have aimed to enhance consumption's foundational role in economic development [6][10]. - The 2022 Central Economic Work Conference prioritized the recovery and expansion of consumption, indicating a shift towards recognizing its importance in driving economic growth [6][10]. Group 3: Investment's Contribution - While consumption is emphasized, effective investment remains critical for long-term economic stability. Historical responses to financial crises have shown the importance of investment in infrastructure and other sectors [7][10]. - The 2024 government report indicated that investment plays a key role in optimizing supply structure, reinforcing the need for a balanced approach between consumption and investment [7][10]. Group 4: Synergy Between Consumption and Investment - The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference called for a focus on creating a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment, emphasizing the need for policies that integrate both aspects [8][10]. - The government aims to combine the strategy of expanding domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms to enhance the overall economic growth impact [8][10]. Group 5: Challenges in Expanding Domestic Demand - Despite efforts, challenges remain, including insufficient effective demand and a lack of robust mechanisms to stimulate consumption. The current consumption rate is around 40%, significantly lower than that of high-income economies [12][10]. - There is a notable overcapacity in certain industries, with low utilization rates in traditional manufacturing sectors, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [12][10]. Group 6: Policy Recommendations - The government is urged to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, to stimulate demand and investment [15][10]. - Specific strategies include enhancing consumer confidence, promoting service consumption, and investing in infrastructure to support economic growth [16][17][10]. Group 7: Long-term Mechanisms for Demand Growth - Establishing a sustainable mechanism for demand growth involves reforming income distribution systems and removing administrative barriers that hinder consumption [19][10]. - The focus should be on creating an environment conducive to private investment and improving the overall investment climate to stimulate economic activity [19][10].

325家世界500强投资湖北 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 李璟 坚持对内对外开放并重、打造内陆开放高地，是中央赋予湖北高水平开放的重大使命与战略定位。 9月28日，湖北省政府新闻办召开"决胜收官'十四五' 谋篇布局'十五五'"系列新闻发布会第十五场：市场枢纽篇， 介绍"十四五"期间湖北省商务事业发展情况，并回答记者提问。 近年来，湖北聚焦聚力全省支点建设大局，深入实施枢纽提能战略，以拼的姿态、抢的劲头、实的作风，推动各 项工作提质效、上台阶。总体来看，"十四五"重大任务和重大项目进展顺利，2021—2024年，全省进出口接连跨 越5000亿元、6000亿元、7000亿元台阶，年均增长13.2%，贸易规模稳步攀升；14项主要指标中，货物贸易、网 上零售额等7项指标已于2024年提前完成，消费主引擎作用更加凸显、支点开放辐射力持续提升、双循环枢纽功能 不断增强，商务高质量发展取得显著成效。 展望"十五五"，湖北将强化支点意识，坚定不移实施扩大内需战略、坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放、坚定不移开 展全球精准招商，奋力推动"十五五"商务高质量发展，在支点建设新征程中开新局、建新功。 实施自贸试验区提升战略，以制度创新为 ...