证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 进击的"中游"：来自供给力量的呐喊 ——战略看多中游制造系列一 我们首先回应市场的争议：当中国的商品贸易顺差达到 1.18 万亿美元（2025 年全年数据），出口份额达到 14.6%（2024 年的数据）之际，中游出口的空间 在哪？基于历史可比经济体的回顾不足以打消市场的顾虑（如日本、韩国、新 加坡等经济体在跨国中等收入国家行列之际，出口份额仍继续增长，但其体量 远小于中国）。对这一问题，我们思考如下：出口额的空间受限或并不代表出 海空间的受限、不代表出口品牌空间受限、不代表附加值空间受限、不代表利 润空间受限。 首先，我们计算包含出海在内的广义出口，目前中国相比美国依然偏低。其次， 我们比较主要经济体上市公司的海外收入占比，中国目前偏低。再次，从产品 的技术含量角度，我们计算各国出口的前向参与度（后向偏劳动密集型，前向 偏技术密集型），中国低于主要经济体。再次，从产品品牌的角度，在服装、 电子、半导体、航天与国防、汽车、化工、汽车零部件等领域与第一甚至第二 第三名差距较大。出口有望从以往的贴牌加工持续转向自有品牌出口。最后， 结合章节三所讨论的大国、中等强国、新兴国家的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fading significance of traditional celebrations like the Spring Festival in contemporary society, attributing it to various factors including societal pressures and technological advancements [6][7]. Group 1: Societal Changes - The article suggests that the essence of the Spring Festival has diminished due to a shift from living in the present to focusing on the future, leading to a lack of anticipation for traditional celebrations [6]. - It highlights the complexity of modern problems, indicating that despite advancements like AI, societal issues remain prevalent and unresolved [6][8]. Group 2: Technological and Political Dynamics - The piece notes that while technological advancements, particularly AI, provide a clear direction amidst economic stagnation, they also pose significant challenges to existing social orders [8][9]. - It emphasizes the potential dangers of becoming overly reliant on technology as a solution to societal issues, warning that this could lead to neglecting the imbalances created by such advancements [9]. Group 3: Personal Reflections and Choices - The article reflects on the importance of individual agency in creating meaning and connection in life, suggesting that personal experiences and choices are crucial in navigating the complexities of modern existence [10][11]. - It concludes with a call to action, encouraging individuals to take responsibility for their experiences and contribute positively to their communities, even in challenging times [12].

春晚的机器人，我们可以看清楚的看到中国技术进步的速度。去年的机器人还是傻傻的，今年的机器人 早已经非常灵活。进步的速度远远超出我们的想象。 想一想10年前，波士顿机器人在翻跟头，现在还是在翻跟头，中国只要在形成了基本的能力之后，技术 创新的速度喷薄而出，对这种能力，很多人不相信。然而这就是事实。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Milan Winter Olympics showcases innovation through the use of drones for first-person perspective filming of snow and ice sports, enhancing viewer engagement with the speed and characteristics of the events [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The integration of drone technology in the Winter Olympics represents a continuous pursuit of innovation in global sports events [1] - Future technological applications may include sensors in curling stones to resolve disputes, as demonstrated in a recent conflict between Canadian and Swedish athletes [1] Group 2: Event Conflicts - A dispute arose during a curling match where a Canadian athlete allegedly touched the stone, leading to complaints from the Swedish team, highlighting the limitations of current technology in adjudicating such incidents [1]

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by the economist Fan Gang emphasizes that the anxiety surrounding AI replacing human jobs should be viewed historically, as technological advancements have historically created new industries and demands rather than reducing employment opportunities [2][3] - Fan Gang argues that while AI may cause short-term employment shocks, society should focus on building a safety net welfare system to maintain social stability and embrace the opportunities presented by AI-driven new industries [3][4] - The issue of "involution" in industries is attributed to the diffusion and imitation of innovation, leading to product homogenization and intense price competition, which diminishes profits and stifles innovation [3][4] Group 2 - To address the problem of "involution," Fan Gang suggests following market principles and pursuing mergers and acquisitions, citing the example of the U.S. steel industry in the late 19th century, where numerous steel mills consolidated after crises, leading to technological advancements [3][4] - The purpose of mergers and acquisitions is not only to eliminate outdated production capacity but also to reduce the number of enterprises in an industry, allowing resources to concentrate on more efficient entities [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - Focus on the **AI industry** and specifically on **NVIDIA** as a leading company in the AI sector [1][12][17] Core Points and Arguments - **Market Volatility and Investment Strategy**: The stock market experienced significant volatility, particularly during the crash from August 5 to August 7, 2025, with the fear index (VX index) reaching 42.8, a rare occurrence in 31 years. Buying quality stocks like NVIDIA during panic periods has proven to yield returns, as evidenced by a 10% gain after purchasing NVIDIA at $92 [1][2][3][4] - **Comparison of US and A-shares**: The US stock market generally trends upwards, supported by dividends and buybacks, while A-shares exhibit a zigzag pattern with shorter bull markets and longer bear markets. This difference significantly impacts investment returns over the past 30 years [1][5] - **Bitcoin Investment Insights**: Bitcoin's volatility can be mitigated by observing its long-term upward trend. Despite its non-yielding nature, it has shown overall growth, but stocks and other yielding assets are considered more stable and potentially more rewarding [1][6] - **Gold vs. Other Assets**: Gold has historically served as a store of value but lacks the yield that stocks provide. The average return on US stocks, adjusted for inflation, has been 6.6% over 200 years, with earnings growth contributing significantly to this return [7] - **Technological Progress as a Growth Driver**: Technological advancements are identified as the core driver of wealth growth and capital market development. Historical examples illustrate the importance of investing in line with technological changes [10] - **Opportunities in the AI Era**: The advent of AI presents substantial investment opportunities, akin to previous technological revolutions. Investors are encouraged to seize these opportunities, with NVIDIA highlighted as a potential high-return investment similar to past successes like Tencent [11][12] - **NVIDIA's Competitive Edge**: NVIDIA is positioned as a leader in AI, with significant R&D investments projected to reach $15 billion in 2026. Its profit is expected to be $120 billion in 2026, with a potential 50% growth in 2027. The company’s rapid product iteration and introduction of quantum chips enhance its competitive advantage [12][13] - **Absence of AI Bubble**: Current capital expenditures and profit growth among US tech giants, including Google, do not indicate an AI bubble. Historical patterns suggest that major themes drive asset classes every decade, with AI being the current theme [13] - **Future Economic Growth and China's Role**: AI is anticipated to significantly boost global economic growth rates, particularly in China, where companies like Huawei and Alibaba are advancing in AI. This development is seen as crucial for sustaining economic growth amid competition with the US [14] - **Long-term Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, planning for 20 to 30 years to navigate market fluctuations. Historical examples, such as Buffett's investment in Apple, illustrate the potential for substantial returns through patience and strategic planning [15][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Wealth Management and Currency Fluctuations**: Currency changes can drastically affect wealth management, as illustrated by the depreciation of the Turkish lira. Investing in stable markets can significantly enhance wealth [9] - **Investment in Tesla vs. Bitcoin**: Investing in Tesla, a yielding asset, is viewed as potentially more rewarding than Bitcoin due to its growth potential linked to technological innovations [8] - **Oriental Harbor's Investment Strategy**: The firm plans to focus on AI technologies, with significant investments in Google and NVIDIA, anticipating these companies may become the first to exceed a market cap of $10 trillion [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the record trade surplus of over $1 trillion in China for 2025 is not primarily due to enhanced export competitiveness or global supply chain restructuring, as commonly suggested [6][7]. - The trade surplus increased by over 20% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than market expectations, indicating an unusual economic trend [6]. - The article challenges the notion that increased trade surplus should correlate with rising employment and wages, as there is no substantial evidence of such changes in the labor market [7]. Group 2 - The nominal exchange rate of the Chinese yuan showed a slight depreciation in 2025, contradicting the expectation that a stronger trade surplus would lead to currency appreciation [7]. - The article suggests that significant changes in industrial upgrading and technological advancement cannot occur within a single year, indicating the need for alternative explanations for the trade surplus [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential employment impacts of AI and suggests three strategies to address these challenges, emphasizing the need for a proactive approach to technology integration and labor market optimization [1] Group 1: Embracing AI and New Economy - The first strategy is to embrace AI and the new economy to avoid the "Turing Trap," where technology either enhances human value and efficiency or replaces it. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting comprehensive human development, suggesting that technology policies should focus on empowering rather than replacing people [1] Group 2: Strengthening Social Security - The second strategy involves preparing for the future by strengthening the social security network. The benefits of technological advancements will not be distributed evenly, necessitating attention to vulnerable groups such as entry-level workers, youth, middle-aged individuals facing unemployment, and flexible workers. This includes improving systems for pensions and unemployment [1] Group 3: Optimizing Labor Market - The third strategy is to address internal competition and optimize the labor market by enhancing the enforcement of labor laws. Technological progress should ideally reduce labor intensity, and through institutional design, it is possible to minimize ineffective labor and shorten average working hours, which can stabilize employment and create space for service consumption [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Market Sentiment**: Improved significantly entering 2026, supported by a stronger CNY and ample liquidity [1][5] Core Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: The weighted MSASI increased by 26 percentage points to 77% compared to the previous cutoff date, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment [2] - **Turnover Metrics**: - ChiNext turnover increased by 14% to RMB 569 billion - A-share turnover rose by 15% to RMB 2,129 billion - Margin transaction outstanding increased by 2% to RMB 2,519 billion - Equity futures turnover decreased by 14% to RMB 386 billion [2] - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading saw net inflows of US$2.8 billion from December 18 to January 7, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows both reaching US$2.4 billion [3] - **Earnings Estimates**: Consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remained negative but showed slight improvement compared to the prior cutoff date [2] Macroeconomic Context - **Growth Projections**: Early 2026 growth is expected to be led by public capital expenditure, with consumer and property sectors remaining weak. A 1Q growth pull towards 5% is deemed unsustainable [4] - **Policy Support**: Beijing released guidelines to ensure policy continuity, with expected annual subsidies around RMB 300 billion, although advanced allocations are smaller than in 2025 [4] - **Deflation vs. Reflation**: The outlook for 2026 is characterized as a year of less deflation rather than reflation, due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [4] Market Drivers - **Key Drivers for Market Strength**: 1. Portfolio re-grossing in the new year after a volatile 4Q25 2. A stronger CNY, beneficial for offshore markets 3. Robust Hong Kong IPO activity and a healthy pipeline of high-quality issuers 4. Abundant liquidity in the A-share market, driven by increased onshore equity mutual fund AUM and rising equity allocations by insurance companies [5] Additional Insights - **Earnings Momentum**: Continuous monitoring of earnings momentum and potential fiscal support measures, particularly related to housing mortgage subsidies, is crucial [15] - **Sentiment Metrics**: The new MSASI is based on 12 individual indicators capturing various dimensions of investor sentiment and market activity, normalized for better comparability [16][18] Conclusion - The outlook for the A-share market in China remains constructive over the next six to twelve months, driven by liquidity support, technological advancements, and thematic investment opportunities [1][15]