美国《华尔街日报》8月29日文章，原题：美联储独立性堪忧之际，"抛售美国"交易势头增强 在美国总 统攻击美联储独立性的背景下，全球货币市场一直感到不安。市场担心，如果参议院顺从地放行他提名 的候选人接替鲍威尔出任美国联邦储备委员会主席，情况可能会恶化。 减少美国资产敞口的讨论增多 拉扎德资产管理公司在全球管理的资金规模约为2480亿美元，该公司的全球投资策略师罗恩·坦普尔在 接受采访时表示，近日美国总统特朗普试图解雇美联储理事莉莎·库克的举动，正值投资美国资产的外 国投资者设法削减美国风险敞口（未加保护的风险）之时。坦普尔说："在非美国客户中，关于减少美 国资产敞口的讨论肯定更多了。" 坦普尔说："很多人担心美联储的独立性现在是否受到质疑。投资者正在认识到，它不像以前那么独立 了。而且即使美联储像以前一样独立，损害可能也已经造成。这完全是观念问题。"坦普尔还表示，随 着长期市场利率上升，"债券市场在传递这样的信号——这不是我们所期待的。我们想要的是一个独立 的美联储"。 坦普尔近日正在澳大利亚对该公司的客户群进行广泛巡访，他对于参议院将否决特朗普提出的候选人一 事不抱什么希望。坦普尔说："本届美国参议院比特朗 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that there are no signs of a "sell-off in the US" in the credit market, with strong capital flows recovering [1] - The firm maintains a neutral stance on the dollar-euro interest rate spread, noting that the total return potential of the dollar market is more advantageous for investors seeking total returns [1] - Dollar corporate bonds, particularly investment-grade bonds, are significantly superior compared to historical levels following the global financial crisis [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs continues to recommend reducing exposure to energy company dollar high-yield bonds, despite a recent surge in WTI oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2] - The performance of energy company euro investment-grade bonds remains relatively stable, attributed to a more diversified business mix and better hedging operations among European energy companies [2] - Future developments in the energy sector will largely depend on the progression of ongoing conflicts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the upward trend in oil prices may not be sustainable [2]

Core Viewpoint - The TIC report from the U.S. Treasury reveals that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.0134 trillion as of April, showing a year-over-year increase but a month-over-month decrease, with Japan, the UK, and China being the top holders [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - As of April, foreign holdings of U.S. debt totaled $9.0134 trillion, an increase of $977.2 billion year-over-year but a decrease of $36.1 billion month-over-month [1]. - The top three holders of U.S. debt are Japan ($1.13 trillion), the UK ($807.7 billion), and China ($757.2 billion), with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China decreased its [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Since April, there has been significant market volatility attributed to a sentiment of "selling America," raising questions about whether this is a temporary shift or a long-term reallocation of global capital [5][7]. - The report indicates that 12 of the top 20 foreign holders reduced their U.S. debt holdings by a total of $125.2 billion, while 8 increased their holdings by $66.9 billion, suggesting mixed trends among foreign investors [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Concerns over U.S. fiscal issues have led to an increase in term premiums, as investors demand additional compensation for taking on term risk, which has affected the correlation between stocks and bonds [5][12]. - The long-term attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may be challenged if fiscal imbalances are not addressed, potentially leading to higher yields on long-term bonds [12]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. debt are seen as a strategic asset for trade negotiations, although officials have stated they do not intend to use these holdings as leverage [10]. - The ongoing discussions about U.S. fiscal sustainability and its impact on Treasury yields highlight the delicate balance between maintaining investor confidence and addressing budget deficits [12].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange options market indicates a potential slowdown in the recent aggressive selling of the US dollar, despite the dollar index trading at a three-year low [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The pessimism in the foreign exchange options market reached extreme levels in May, but signals of relative calm have emerged as the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision approaches [1][4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's risk reversal indicators for one-week and one-month terms have hit their lowest bearish points in over two months [1]. - Despite the recent calm, the dollar's spot price fell to its lowest since April 2022 due to confirmed moderate producer price inflation and limited cooling in the US labor market [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI/PPI, suggest that the US economy is showing unexpected resilience, leading to increased expectations of a "soft landing" and minimal changes in Fed rate cut expectations [6]. - The market anticipates only two rate cuts this year, which explains the retreat from extreme bearish positions in the foreign exchange market over the past two months [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite a temporary slowdown in selling pressure, the consensus on Wall Street remains that the dollar will continue to weaken, with projections indicating further declines through 2025 [9]. - Investment confidence in the US is perceived to be declining, with macro traders reassessing the US as a high-risk market due to tariff threats, softening data, and fiscal deficit concerns [10]. - Major investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, warn of significant depreciation of the dollar in the coming year, with predictions of a potential 9% drop in the dollar index [10].

Group 1 - The financial market is facing unprecedented challenges with U.S. assets, as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has surpassed 5%, and demand for 20-year Treasuries has significantly declined [1][4] - The U.S. government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, and the fiscal deficit is rapidly expanding, with the tax cut plan proposed by the Trump administration expected to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, further increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% to 125% [3][4] - The surge in U.S. Treasury yields has caused notable impacts on global financial markets, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing their largest declines in a month, and the 20-year Treasury yield reaching 5.1% [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish outlook on U.S. assets, upgrading U.S. stocks and Treasuries to "overweight," citing relative advantages amid a slowing global economy [5] - The firm anticipates that U.S. corporate earnings will soon hit a bottom, and easing inflation along with potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will support U.S. equities [5] - Morgan Stanley projects the S&P 500 index to reach 6,500 points by Q2 2026, while forecasting a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.45% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent sentiment among international investors is increasingly negative towards U.S. assets, driven by Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating and uncertainties surrounding new spending legislation [1][2] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - A survey conducted by JPMorgan among 700 investors from 45 countries revealed that 36% expect European stock markets to outperform by 2025, while only 17% favor U.S. markets [2] - Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook have led to a cautious stance among global investors, despite the absence of a recession as a baseline expectation [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Stoxx Europe 600 index has risen by 7% this year, contrasting with a decline of approximately 1% in the S&P 500 index [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. will maintain its dominant position until at least 2026, driven by improving profit sentiment and ongoing growth in artificial intelligence [3] Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - Current uncertainty persists regarding interest rates, recession probabilities, trade agreements, and geopolitical developments [4] - JPMorgan estimates a 40% chance of a U.S. economic recession, with GDP losses already evident, and highlights concerns over tariffs impacting business investment and consumption [5] Group 4: Trade and Investment Risks - Ongoing trade negotiations introduce further uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S.-EU relations, with potential retaliatory tariffs looming [5] - Foreign selling of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to continue due to inflation and policy instability, which may benefit gold as an alternative investment [5][6]

Group 1 - The current market sentiment has turned cautious, leading to increased inflow of safe-haven funds into gold due to heightened risk aversion [3] - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and potential large-scale tax cuts proposed by President Trump are exerting continuous pressure on the US dollar [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel's potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, are further supporting gold prices, which have reached an eight-day high [3] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices are influenced by news events, with a recent peak at 3321, approaching a short-term resistance level [6] - The market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations of fluctuations within a range of 3320-3280 [6] - A trading strategy suggests buying on dips around 3285-80 with a target of 3305-10, while also considering short positions based on pressure levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. is threatening the positive atmosphere on Wall Street, with significant budget deficits and rising interest costs leading to a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Situation and Market Reactions - Investors sold U.S. government bonds and dollars following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, which was attributed to large budget deficits and increasing interest costs [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5%, reflecting a continued upward trend in yields due to concerns over recession, inflation, and increased bond issuance from larger deficits [1][2] - The recent budget deficits are particularly alarming as they occur during a period of economic strength rather than during a recession, which typically sees a drop in tax revenues [1][3] Group 2: Legislative Developments and Economic Implications - The House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, with a proposal to extend expiring tax cuts and introduce new ones [1][3] - The projected increase in the budget deficit is approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the long-term imbalance between U.S. spending and tax revenues [3] - The total publicly held federal debt is around $29 trillion, nearly double the amount when the initial tax cuts were signed into law in 2017 [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Despite rising Treasury yields, the stock market has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posting gains [2] - Investors are closely monitoring changes in policies and interest rates, indicating a level of uncertainty that is reflected in market behavior [4] - Factors such as trade policy changes are seen as more likely to impact the market in the short term compared to long-standing concerns about U.S. fiscal health [4][5]

Group 1 - The financial markets experienced a significant sell-off, termed "Sell America," due to President Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, leading to investor disappointment and uncertainty [1][10]. - The period of "Sell America" occurred from April 4 to April 22, coinciding with Powell's remarks about the potential negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy [1][10]. - The S&P 500 index formed a "death cross" for the first time in three years on April 14, indicating potential further declines in the market [10][11]. Group 2 - Economic indicators show a mixed outlook, with March's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 2.8%, below expectations, suggesting a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - Consumer spending is declining across various income levels, with households cutting back on non-essential purchases, indicating economic strain [3][4]. - Economists predict a 40% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, with concerns that rising tariffs could exacerbate inflation and hinder economic growth [4][5]. Group 3 - Trump's administration has created uncertainty regarding trade policies, which has negatively affected business sentiment and consumer confidence [3][7]. - The potential dismissal of Powell raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [9][8]. - The recent turmoil in financial markets reflects a broader loss of confidence in U.S. economic policies and the safety of American financial assets [10][11].