美国政府结束停摆之后公布的最新美债持仓数据显示，9月份海外国家所持有的美国国债规模仍接近历史最高位，这也意味着此前不久在 8月创下新的美债持仓历史最高位之后，海外国家整体持有的美国国债规模仅仅呈现出略有回落。最新的海外国家美债持仓凸显出那些嘴 上说着"抛售美国"与"美国例外论已经处于崩塌进程"的海外主权财政机构以及大型私人投资机构们实际上正在趁着美债价格在降息预期催 化之下的上行时期疯狂买入美债资产或者在收益率反弹时候趁机大举逢低买入美债。 "期限溢价"持续大幅缓解叠加美联储降息预期升温之下的借贷成本下降，美债投资回报持续上升，而且迄今为止最为糟糕的那些经济预 测展望，尤其是关于通胀的悲观预测，基本上都未能成真。事实上，规模达30万亿美元的美国国债交易市场持续火热，以美债价格波动 计价的投资回报今年迄今接近7%，正朝着自2020年以来的最佳美债投资年份迈进。 据了解，具体的细节数据显示，美国国债第二大持有国英国选择了在9月份缩减持仓，而日本的美债持仓则升至三年多来的最高水平。 9月份，海外投资机构们合计持有价值约9.25万亿美元的美国国债，而前一个月则为9.26万亿美元这一历史最高持仓规模。值得注意的 是，持 ...

2025年临近尾声，有一个趋势势必伴随投资者进入新一年：普遍不愿全仓押注美国资产。 这一趋势始于4月，当时美国总统特朗普所谓的"解放日"关税引发市场恐慌，美国股票、国债和美元遭 遇抛售。这类交易被称为"抛售美国"（Sell America），在部分圈子里还被称作"ABUSA"——即"除了美 国，哪儿都行"（Anywhere But the USA）的缩写。在此后的几个月里，随着一系列政策先宣布后撤 回，又出现了"TACO"交易（即"特朗普总是半途而废"（Trump Always Chickens Out）的缩写）。 即便到了10月，白宫不可预测的政策仍在搅动市场，关于美国股票估值——以及美股是否处于人工智能 驱动的泡沫中——的质疑持续涌现。 "我知道我们的客户担心的一点是美国股市的极端集中度，尤其是与多元化程度高得多的欧洲股市相 比，"丹麦投资管理公司SimCorp的投资决策研究首席负责人克里斯托夫·舍恩（Christoph Schon）告诉 CNBC。 "普通投资者把太多资金放在了美国，"ETF.com的戴夫·纳迪格（Dave Nadig）上月告诉CNBC，"我听到 越来越多投资者在谈论，无论如何都要撤出美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's attacks, leading to increased discussions about reducing exposure to U.S. assets among foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are increasingly discussing the need to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [2]. - U.S. domestic investors are less motivated to reallocate funds away from U.S. assets, attributed to a sense of complacency [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is a lack of evidence supporting inflation driven by tariffs, despite average tariffs nearing 20% [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, potentially undermining hopes of alleviating U.S. debt repayment pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The stability of the $37 trillion U.S. bond market is at risk due to increasing uncertainty, with potential liquidity panic in the short-term bond market as international investors signal a desire to limit exposure to long-term U.S. bonds [3]. - Despite concerns reflected in the bond and forex markets, the U.S. stock market is currently performing well, indicating a disconnect in pricing [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that there are no signs of a "sell-off in the US" in the credit market, with strong capital flows recovering [1] - The firm maintains a neutral stance on the dollar-euro interest rate spread, noting that the total return potential of the dollar market is more advantageous for investors seeking total returns [1] - Dollar corporate bonds, particularly investment-grade bonds, are significantly superior compared to historical levels following the global financial crisis [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs continues to recommend reducing exposure to energy company dollar high-yield bonds, despite a recent surge in WTI oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2] - The performance of energy company euro investment-grade bonds remains relatively stable, attributed to a more diversified business mix and better hedging operations among European energy companies [2] - Future developments in the energy sector will largely depend on the progression of ongoing conflicts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the upward trend in oil prices may not be sustainable [2]

Core Viewpoint - The TIC report from the U.S. Treasury reveals that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.0134 trillion as of April, showing a year-over-year increase but a month-over-month decrease, with Japan, the UK, and China being the top holders [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - As of April, foreign holdings of U.S. debt totaled $9.0134 trillion, an increase of $977.2 billion year-over-year but a decrease of $36.1 billion month-over-month [1]. - The top three holders of U.S. debt are Japan ($1.13 trillion), the UK ($807.7 billion), and China ($757.2 billion), with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China decreased its [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Since April, there has been significant market volatility attributed to a sentiment of "selling America," raising questions about whether this is a temporary shift or a long-term reallocation of global capital [5][7]. - The report indicates that 12 of the top 20 foreign holders reduced their U.S. debt holdings by a total of $125.2 billion, while 8 increased their holdings by $66.9 billion, suggesting mixed trends among foreign investors [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Concerns over U.S. fiscal issues have led to an increase in term premiums, as investors demand additional compensation for taking on term risk, which has affected the correlation between stocks and bonds [5][12]. - The long-term attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may be challenged if fiscal imbalances are not addressed, potentially leading to higher yields on long-term bonds [12]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. debt are seen as a strategic asset for trade negotiations, although officials have stated they do not intend to use these holdings as leverage [10]. - The ongoing discussions about U.S. fiscal sustainability and its impact on Treasury yields highlight the delicate balance between maintaining investor confidence and addressing budget deficits [12].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange options market indicates a potential slowdown in the recent aggressive selling of the US dollar, despite the dollar index trading at a three-year low [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The pessimism in the foreign exchange options market reached extreme levels in May, but signals of relative calm have emerged as the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision approaches [1][4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's risk reversal indicators for one-week and one-month terms have hit their lowest bearish points in over two months [1]. - Despite the recent calm, the dollar's spot price fell to its lowest since April 2022 due to confirmed moderate producer price inflation and limited cooling in the US labor market [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI/PPI, suggest that the US economy is showing unexpected resilience, leading to increased expectations of a "soft landing" and minimal changes in Fed rate cut expectations [6]. - The market anticipates only two rate cuts this year, which explains the retreat from extreme bearish positions in the foreign exchange market over the past two months [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite a temporary slowdown in selling pressure, the consensus on Wall Street remains that the dollar will continue to weaken, with projections indicating further declines through 2025 [9]. - Investment confidence in the US is perceived to be declining, with macro traders reassessing the US as a high-risk market due to tariff threats, softening data, and fiscal deficit concerns [10]. - Major investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, warn of significant depreciation of the dollar in the coming year, with predictions of a potential 9% drop in the dollar index [10].

Group 1 - The financial market is facing unprecedented challenges with U.S. assets, as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has surpassed 5%, and demand for 20-year Treasuries has significantly declined [1][4] - The U.S. government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, and the fiscal deficit is rapidly expanding, with the tax cut plan proposed by the Trump administration expected to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, further increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% to 125% [3][4] - The surge in U.S. Treasury yields has caused notable impacts on global financial markets, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing their largest declines in a month, and the 20-year Treasury yield reaching 5.1% [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish outlook on U.S. assets, upgrading U.S. stocks and Treasuries to "overweight," citing relative advantages amid a slowing global economy [5] - The firm anticipates that U.S. corporate earnings will soon hit a bottom, and easing inflation along with potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will support U.S. equities [5] - Morgan Stanley projects the S&P 500 index to reach 6,500 points by Q2 2026, while forecasting a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.45% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent sentiment among international investors is increasingly negative towards U.S. assets, driven by Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating and uncertainties surrounding new spending legislation [1][2] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - A survey conducted by JPMorgan among 700 investors from 45 countries revealed that 36% expect European stock markets to outperform by 2025, while only 17% favor U.S. markets [2] - Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook have led to a cautious stance among global investors, despite the absence of a recession as a baseline expectation [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Stoxx Europe 600 index has risen by 7% this year, contrasting with a decline of approximately 1% in the S&P 500 index [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. will maintain its dominant position until at least 2026, driven by improving profit sentiment and ongoing growth in artificial intelligence [3] Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - Current uncertainty persists regarding interest rates, recession probabilities, trade agreements, and geopolitical developments [4] - JPMorgan estimates a 40% chance of a U.S. economic recession, with GDP losses already evident, and highlights concerns over tariffs impacting business investment and consumption [5] Group 4: Trade and Investment Risks - Ongoing trade negotiations introduce further uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S.-EU relations, with potential retaliatory tariffs looming [5] - Foreign selling of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to continue due to inflation and policy instability, which may benefit gold as an alternative investment [5][6]

Group 1 - The current market sentiment has turned cautious, leading to increased inflow of safe-haven funds into gold due to heightened risk aversion [3] - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and potential large-scale tax cuts proposed by President Trump are exerting continuous pressure on the US dollar [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel's potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, are further supporting gold prices, which have reached an eight-day high [3] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices are influenced by news events, with a recent peak at 3321, approaching a short-term resistance level [6] - The market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations of fluctuations within a range of 3320-3280 [6] - A trading strategy suggests buying on dips around 3285-80 with a target of 3305-10, while also considering short positions based on pressure levels [8]