商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 18 日 LLDPE：农需或趋见顶，关注供应压力 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6843 | -0.15% | 272216 | 1540 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -23 | | -23 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -59 | | -62 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6820 | | 6830 | | | | 华东 | 6950 | | 6950 | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年11月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14350，基差-695 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints PTA - Cost side: The expectation of supply-demand surplus remains, but it will take time for the surplus pressure to materialize. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The increase in PX due to the restart of short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some device maintenance is significant. With the compression of PTA profit margins, the postponement of new device launches and clear maintenance plans will further affect PX demand. PXN is expected to show a weak performance, and the cost support is average. - Supply - demand: In October, INEOS and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the restart time of Yisheng Dalian and Hainan is undetermined, so the supply - side operating rate is average. After the sales volume increased in late September, the significant decline in polyester factory inventory may delay the expected reduction in polyester production, and the supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state [5]. MEG - Before the holiday: Driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market was booming, the inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable, and the sales volume of filament yarn was only 10% - 20%. It is expected that the inventory will increase by more than 5 days in 8 days on average. - Future outlook: With the successful launch of Yulong Petrochemical, ethylene glycol has entered a new launch cycle. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is weak in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to increase by about 70,000 - 80,000 tons in October. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans for devices such as Fulaian and Shenghong. The inventory increase will be more obvious from November to December, and there is also an expectation of new device launches in the far - month, so attention should be paid to the macro - level and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the PTA market showed a pattern of "weak supply and demand, price under pressure", with unstable cost support, loose supply, and the recovery of downstream demand falling short of expectations [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4545, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 49, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main position: Net short position, and short positions are increasing [6]. MEG - Fundamental: Before the holiday, driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market was booming, and the inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn decreased rapidly to about half a month, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable, and the sales volume of filament yarn was only 10% - 20%. It is expected that the inventory will increase by more than 5 days in 8 days on average. In terms of polyester load, attention should be paid to whether bottle chips will restart in October. Due to the improvement in pre - holiday sales, the inventory of filament yarn has decreased significantly, and the short - term pressure to further reduce production is not large, but the physical inventory still has pressure. From November to December, attention should be paid to demand changes, and filament yarn and chips may still reduce production [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4275, and the basis of the 01 contract is 68, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 404,300 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main position: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap [12]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, port inventory, and supply - demand gap [13]. 5. Price The report presents multiple price - related charts, including bottle - chip spot prices, bottle - chip production margins, bottle - chip capacity utilization, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, MEG basis, spot spreads, and the processing margin of p - xylene [15][29][32]. 6. Inventory Analysis The report includes inventory - related charts of various products, such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory [41]. 7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates The report shows the operating rate charts of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [52][56]. 8. Profit Analysis The report presents profit - related charts of various products, including PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, polyester fiber short - fiber production margins, and polyester fiber long - fiber production margins [61][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, rising domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bearish, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is bullish on the disk, the main position is bearish, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply starting to increase, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is - 110 with a spot price of 14900, showing a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with the SHFE inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increasing week - on - week and year - on - year. The market is bullish on the disk as the price is running above the 20 - day line. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal. Short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is starting to increase [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 29. The US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline [6][8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [14][17]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and the tire production reaching a new high in the same period, but the tire industry's exports have declined [23][26][29]. - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Basis - The basis weakened on July 29, with a spot price of 14900 and a basis of - 110, showing a bearish signal [4][35]. Multi - empty Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and the non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PP market showed a weak and narrow adjustment, with some prices dropping by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The futures were mainly in a low - level oscillation, suppressing the spot market trading atmosphere. Due to the off - season of demand, downstream new orders were insufficient, and the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, resulting in overall poor trading in the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PP Fundamental Data - **Futures Information**: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7067, with a daily decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 229,429, and the position decreased by 2340 [1]. - **Price Spread Information**: The basis of the 09 contract was - 57 (compared to - 19 the previous day), and the price spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 0 (compared to 15 the previous day) [1]. - **Important Spot Price Information**: In the North China region, the spot price range was 7020 - 7100 yuan/ton (compared to 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7010 - 7160 yuan/ton (compared to 7050 - 7180 yuan/ton the previous day); in the South China region, it was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton (compared to 7050 - 7220 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market was weakly adjusted, with some prices falling. The futures' low - level oscillation dampened the spot market trading atmosphere. Traders sold goods as usual, and some quotes were slightly weaker to promote transactions. Downstream demand was weak due to the off - season [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, similar to fuel oil) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent crude above $70 per barrel is limited. For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the unilateral and crack spreads are weakening. The asphalt fundamentals are weakening, and its upside space is restricted. LPG is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Crude oil futures continued to be strong, with the SC08 contract rising 0.54%. Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 7.07 million barrels. Although OPEC+ is increasing production and the global oil inventory is accumulating, the peak - season demand for refined oil in the third quarter, the relatively small impact of macro - level tariffs, and the increased frequency of Houthi ship attacks in the Red Sea support the price. The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, crude oil led the rise in refined oil futures, with the strength order being SC>BU>LU>FU. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand for power generation in the Middle East and North Africa in summer fails to boost it. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply benefit from the diversion effect due to the decline in coking profit has disappeared, and the demand lacks a clear driver, with the crack spread declining [2] Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory started to accumulate in late June. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase in cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The overall demand recovery is expected to be delayed. The asphalt price mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit its upside space [3] LPG - The international market supply is generally loose, and the price is stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH gross profit. The supply pressure continues in summer, and the upside power of the futures price is limited, so it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with market sentiment dominating and short - term trading recommended. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventory rising, and tire operating rate at a high level [6]. - The basis is - 145 (spot price is 13950), indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [6]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the exchange has changed little recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has also changed little recently [16][19]. - **Import**: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have a seasonal increase [25][28][31]. 3.3 Basis - The basis widened on July 1st [37]. 3.4 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (not for delivery) decreased on July 1st [10]. 3.5 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the zinc market, indicating that zinc is in a narrow - range adjustment. The trend strength of zinc is 0, showing a neutral state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21,920 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,686 dollars/ton, up 1.40%. The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 185,998 lots, an increase of 74,593 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 12,083 lots, an increase of 5,268 lots [1]. - **Position and Premium**: The position of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 121,470 lots, an increase of 10,602 lots; the position of LME zinc was 212,837 lots, an increase of 2,923 lots. The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 26 dollars/ton, down 1.35 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 7,471 tons, a decrease of 248 tons; LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons [1]. 3.2 News - Powell's first day of congressional hearings: Reiterated a wait - and - see approach, considering action under certain conditions, not ruling out the possibility of an early interest rate cut. There are many possible scenarios, but the data for June and July are important. "New Fed Wire" reported that Powell did not rule out a rate cut in July but hinted that it was more likely to wait until at least September [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report anticipates that the short - term price of coking coal may weaken. The terminal demand release is limited, affecting the profit compression of some steel mills, which reduces the procurement of coke. After the second round of coke price cuts, some coke enterprises' profit losses intensify, and they have production reduction expectations, slowing down the procurement of raw coal. Currently, they mainly consume in - plant coking coal inventory [2]. - Coke is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term. The continuous decline in coking coal prices further releases the profit margin, and coke enterprises maintain a high operating rate. However, due to two consecutive rounds of price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises narrows. With weak downstream demand, some coke enterprises in the production area have inventory accumulation, and the cost support of coke continues to weaken [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mines are operating normally with little output fluctuation. Downstream coke and steel enterprises reduce coking coal procurement due to poor expectations, resulting in poor new orders for mines, increased sales pressure, and a pessimistic market sentiment. Mines are actively selling with expected price cuts [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1000, and the basis is 198.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coke enterprises is 1838.4 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from last week [2]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The continuous decline in coking coal prices releases profit space, and coke enterprises maintain a high operating rate. However, due to two consecutive rounds of price cuts, profit narrows, and there is no obvious intention to increase production. With weak downstream demand, some coke enterprises in the production area have inventory accumulation [5]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 41.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coke enterprises is 956.8 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons from last week [5]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [5]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [4]. - Bearish: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - On May 28 (17:30), the prices of most types of port metallurgical coke decreased, with a decrease of 50 in some cases [8]. - On May 28 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal at ports showed different trends, with some rising and some remaining unchanged [9]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [19]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [22]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [25]. Other Indicators - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [36]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][10][11][13][14][16][17][19][20][22][23][25][26][28][29][31][32][34][35] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling. The overall situation is neutral. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices. Negative factors include increased supply, increased market inventories, and a bearish external environment [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided [2] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling [4] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are seasonally increasing, and Qingdao region inventories have resumed increasing. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao region inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) rose on May 14th [8] 3. Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Positive Factors**: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [6] - **Negative Factors**: Supply is increasing, market inventories are increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 15,150, and the basis is - 85, indicating a bearish situation. The basis narrowed on May 14th [4][35]