研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 【粕类日报】基本面整体稳定 盘面走势较强 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | 粕类价格日报 | | | | 2026/1/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期 | 货 | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | | 0 1 | 3171 | 2 1 | 天津 | 370 | 340 | 3 0 | | | 0 5 | 2811 | 3 5 | 东莞 | 330 | 330 | 0 | | 豆粕 | 0 9 | 2888 | 1 7 | 张家港 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 300 | 310 | -10 | | | 0 1 | 2677 | 4 0 | 南通 | 8 1 | 110 | -2 ...

截至2025年12月30日收盘，天合光能(688599)报收于16.77元，下跌2.16%，换手率1.56%，成交量36.65 万手，成交额6.17亿元。 当日关注点 交易信息汇总 资金流向 12月30日主力资金净流出1481.78万元；游资资金净流出3218.12万元；散户资金净流入4699.9万元。 公司公告汇总 北京市金杜律师事务所上海分所关于天合光能股份有限公司2025年第六次临时股东会之法律意见书 北京市金杜律师事务所上海分所出具法律意见书，确认天合光能股份有限公司2025年第六次临时股东会 的召集、召开程序，出席人员资格、召集人资格及表决程序、表决结果均符合相关法律法规及公司章程 规定。本次股东会于2025年12月29日召开，审议通过了关于2026年度开展期货期权及外汇套期保值业 务、变更注册资本并修订公司章程、申请综合融资及担保额度等议案，表决结果合法有效。 天合光能股份有限公司2025年第六次临时股东会决议公告 天合光能股份有限公司于2025年12月29日召开2025年第六次临时股东会，审议通过了关于公司2026年度 开展期货、期权及外汇套期保值业务的议案、关于变更公司注册资本并修订《公司章程 ...

Core Insights - The launch of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27 and 28, 2025, respectively, fills a gap in China's derivatives market for these metals and establishes an efficient pricing mechanism for domestic platinum and palladium [1][4] - The initial trading day saw palladium prices rise by 1.53% and platinum by 6.25%, indicating strong market participation and trading volume [1] - The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive catalytic sector is significant, with platinum accounting for 40% and palladium for 80% of the demand in 2024 [1] Industry Impact - The introduction of these contracts aligns with China's industrial strategy and is expected to accelerate the development of the domestic supply chain [4] - The new products provide effective risk management and hedging tools for market participants, enhancing the capital market's focus on the investment attributes and price volatility of palladium and platinum [4] - The low abundance of platinum and palladium in the earth's crust, primarily concentrated in South Africa, Russia, and North America, highlights China's high dependency on imports, particularly from South Africa and Russia [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the rubber market in the week of November 2025, covering aspects such as price trends, supply and demand, inventory, and downstream consumption. It also provides trading strategies and discusses the impact of events like African rubber becoming a substitute for NR futures and Thailand's abnormal weather. Overall, the market shows complex trends with both positive and negative factors affecting different segments of the rubber industry [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Supply - Demand Analysis - **Price**: Natural rubber in Qingdao (Thai mixed) was reported at 14,620 yuan/ton (-36 yuan/ton), and Shanghai full - latex at 14,850 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton). For cis - butadiene rubber, Shandong Daqing BR9000 was at 10,530 yuan/ton (+160 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Supply**: Yunnan's natural rubber production stopped early, and continuous rainfall in southern Thailand led to higher overseas raw material prices. For cis - butadiene rubber, Zhenhua restarted, Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance continued, and Maoming Petrochemical will start a 50 - day maintenance soon [2]. - **Demand**: Tire production decreased overall, with semi - steel tire production at 69.36% (-3.63%) and full - steel tire production at 62.04% (-2.25%). The end - market resisted price increases, and trading weakened [2]. - **Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory was 106.2 tons (+0.5 tons), and cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprise inventory was 3.15 tons (+0.07 tons, +2.24%) [2]. 3.2 Key Events - **Thailand's Rainfall**: On the 19th, the weighted rainfall of natural rubber production reached 55.52mm/day, a new high in nearly a year. The market may not have priced in the extreme weather [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of SHFE RU contracts decreased by 50.2% to 7.87 tons after centralized cancellation, reaching a new low since November 2012, which is favorable for natural rubber [22]. - **African Rubber as Substitute**: African rubber will be a substitute for the NR contract. The key lies in its premium or discount. A larger discount has less impact on existing contracts, while a smaller discount or par value may attract more deliveries and impact the NR contract's pricing [27]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side Trading**: Consider short - selling the RU main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at 15,280 points. For the NR main 01 contract, also consider short - selling and set a stop - loss at 12,285 points. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for the BR main 01 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider intervening in the BR2601 - RU2601 (2 - to - 1) spread at - 4,850 points and set a stop - loss at - 4,910 points [4]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.4 Downstream Consumption - **Stock Market and Index**: As of November 2025, the China Securities 1000 Index rose for 7 consecutive months, reaching 7,506 points, a year - on - year increase of 45.1%. In November 2025, the European automotive industry index rose slightly to - 29.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 39.9 points, and also increased year - on - year for 5 consecutive months [65]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In September 2025, domestic rubber and plastic industry electricity consumption increased for 4 consecutive months, reaching 17.71 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, with the growth rate hitting a new high since January 2024 [65]. - **Tire Production**: In September 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 1.5% year - on - year, with a smaller increase than in August [65]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - **Qingdao Port**: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31 tons (0.70%). The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 6.66 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 38.6 tons [71]. - **Mixed Base Spread**: In October, domestic mixed rubber imports decreased by 10.2% year - on - year, which is favorable for the mixed base spread. In September, global automobile sales increased by 9.1% year - on - year, also favorable for the mixed base spread [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market shows fluctuations, with various products such as polyester, alcohol, and related chemical products experiencing price changes and trading volume adjustments. The supply - demand relationship is complex, affected by factors like production, inventory, and market sentiment [1][2] Summary by Related Information Price and Quantity Information - There are multiple price data for different products including polyester, alcohol, etc., with values like - 1466.31, 6000.00, 2080.00, etc., and percentage changes such as (10.76)%, (10.00)%, etc. [1] - The trading volume and price of products like ethylene glycol are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, with prices ranging from 466 - 472 dollars per ton in some periods [2] Market Conditions - Recently, the trading of polyester yarn and alcohol has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and market sentiment. The market is in a state of adjustment, with some products showing price increases and decreases [2] Investment and Business - Investment and business operations in the industry are influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy, and resource allocation. Enterprises need to make decisions based on comprehensive considerations of various factors [2]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,535, 13,575, and 13,740 respectively, with the price of CF01 down 5, CF05 down 25, and CF09 down 30. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 19,760, 19,745, and 20,085 respectively, with the price of CY01 down 15, CY05 down 50, and CY09 unchanged [3]. - The CCIndex3128B spot price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; the CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30. The Cot A price was 75.65 cents/pound, and the FCY IndexC33S was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 [3]. - The 1 - 5 - month cotton spread was -40, up 20; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -165, up 5; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 205, down 25. The 1 - 5 - month棉纱 spread was 15, up 35; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -340, down 20,135; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 325, up 20,100 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,225, down 10; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,170, down 25; the CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,345, up 20,115. The 1% tariff - based internal and external cotton spread was 1,317, down 218; the sliding - duty internal and external cotton spread was 493, down 120; the internal and external yarn spread was -743, up 17 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of October 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock cotton industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the end of last month. The available cotton inventory was 971,200 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days from the end of last month, and the grey fabric inventory was 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days from the end of last month [6]. - Since the new cotton acquisition started on September 26, 24 cotton acquisition and processing enterprises in Hutubi County had acquired 242,000 tons of seed cotton as of October 10, and the acquisition was expected to be completed by early December. As of mid - October, 35 cotton processing enterprises in Shaya County had acquired 215,000 tons of seed cotton, achieving the expected acquisition volume, with an average daily acquisition volume of over 20,000 tons [6]. - During the holiday, as new flowers entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the Xinjiang cotton output was high and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition was average, with no large - scale rush for acquisition. The acquisition price in some markets was around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new flowers, it was expected that there would be certain selling and hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season performance of the demand side was average. Although the downstream demand had slightly improved, the improvement range was relatively limited, so the peak season performance this year was not expected to be very prominent, and the peak season demand was expected to have a relatively limited boosting effect on the market [7]. - The trading strategies were as follows: for unilateral trading, it was expected that the future trend of US cotton would mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton was also expected to show a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, it was recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated steadily, the hedging pressure gradually emerged, and the cotton spot price was stable with a slight increase. However, due to the expectation of a bumper new cotton harvest, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines, mainly replenishing raw materials on a just - in - time basis. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market slightly recovered, with small orders selling well, but traders were still cautious in purchasing. Affected by Zhengzhou cotton, some manufacturers continued to adjust their quotes, and the pure cotton yarn price slightly recovered. However, due to the poor orders of weaving factories, the actual transaction price did not change much. There was little change in inventory, and the inventory of some spinning mills in the inland slightly increased. It was necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand. In addition, factors such as the China - US presidential meeting and the Fed's possible interest rate cut at the end of the month might also have an impact on external demand [8]. - The current ex - works price of Xinjiang - produced combed compact siro - spun R/JC 50/50 50S was around 25,000 yuan/ton, and the ex - works price of high - grade ring - spun C32S was 21,200 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Real - order negotiations were available [10]. - Cotton weaving factories generally reported that the recent market was significantly worse than in September. Currently, they were in the inventory accumulation stage, and there were discounts on the actual transaction price of grey fabrics. The in - production orders were mainly for medium - and thick - type fabrics, but the profit was poor, and there were few sampling orders for thin - type fabrics. Since the new downstream orders were mainly small and urgent orders, and large orders were hard to find, weaving factories mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis [10]. Group 3: Options - On October 21, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 247, up 32.1%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 45, down 29.7%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 15, down 42.3%. The 120 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 8.542, with the volatility slightly decreasing compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7255, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6021. Today, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. The option trading strategy was to wait and see [13][14].

Core Insights - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced the launch of options for Solana (SOL) and XRP futures on October 31, pending regulatory review [1] Group 1: Product Launch - CME will offer options for trading SOL, Micro SOL, XRP, and Micro XRP futures with expiration dates available for every business day, monthly, and quarterly [1] Group 2: Trading Volume - Since March 17, over 540,000 Solana futures contracts have been traded [1] - Since May 19, over 370,000 XRP futures contracts have been traded [1]

Core Points - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is planning to draft the "Dalian Commodity Exchange Coking Coal Futures Options Contract (Draft for Comments)" and is currently seeking market feedback [1] Group 1 - The DCE's initiative is based on relevant laws and regulations, including the "Futures and Derivatives Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Futures Trading Management Regulations" [1] - The public consultation aims to gather opinions from the market participants regarding the proposed contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The methanol market has a loose supply situation, with high domestic methanol开工率 and increasing imports. Port inventories are at a record high, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Against this backdrop, the strategy is to short at high prices rather than chase short positions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures price fluctuated and closed at 2372 (+13/+0.55%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2040 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 2030 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2250 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From August 23 - 29, 2025, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 1,066,107 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 73.08%, a 1.19% increase from the previous week. During this period, Iranian plants were operating normally, while some plants in other regions had different operating conditions [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The coal - producing areas in the northwest have increased coal mine开工率 and falling coal prices. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 650 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is loose. Import prices decreased slightly last week, and the import profit margin expanded. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, and non - Iranian plants have stable operations [5]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season with a decline in开工率, while the MTO device开工率 has rebounded. Some MTO plants have different operating loads [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are increasing due to more imports, and the basis is strong. Inland enterprise inventories fluctuate slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Short at high prices, do not chase short positions [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Sell call options [9].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, rising by 1.04% to close at 3766.21 points, with the STAR Market leading the gains, particularly the STAR 50 index which surged by 3.23% [1] - Chipmaker Chip Origin Co., Ltd. saw a significant increase of 15.52% in its stock price, hitting the daily limit before experiencing a sell-off at the close [1] - ByteDance denied rumors of a collaboration with Chip Origin Co., Ltd. regarding AI chips, clarifying that no such partnership exists [1] Group 2 - In the futures market, lithium carbonate, pure alkali, coking coal, and coke saw the largest declines, with lithium carbonate futures hitting the daily limit down [2] - A participant in the "National Futures Simulation Championship" achieved a remarkable return of 332.71% through trading lithium carbonate options, showcasing the potential for high returns in the futures market [2][7] - The competition aims to provide a platform for investors to learn trading strategies and improve their skills, with various rewards for participants [4][19] Group 3 - The "National Futures Simulation Championship" offers participants a virtual fund of 1 million yuan for trading, allowing them to practice without financial risk [18] - The competition features a dual reward system for weekly and monthly performance, with cash prizes available for participants achieving positive returns [20] - Participants can join a community for real-time discussions and learning opportunities, enhancing their trading knowledge and skills [19][21]