文 | 对冲研投编辑组 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 信息来源 | 鹰眼快讯 十一长假即将结束，假期间全球金融市场发生了哪些重要事件？跟着对冲研投内容团队一起复盘 假期外盘行情，回顾国内外重要资讯及数据，为明天的开盘做充足的准备吧！ 常规数据资讯监控请点击 现在 来跟我们一起做全球宏观 &大宗商品的开盘准备吧！ 大类资产整体走势一览 0 1 全球股市普涨，黄金价格再创新高，国际油价下挫 1. 全球股市：海外主要股指集体上涨，日经表现突出。 国庆假期期间，国内外基本面及宏观局势相对稳定，全球风险资产普遍上行。纳指涨0.87%，标普500 指数涨0.8%，道指涨0.62%，VIX指数跌4.55%；日经225指数大涨6.72%，恒生指数涨0.56%。欧股 方面，德国DAX指数涨2.57%，欧洲50指数涨2.01%，法国CAC40指数涨1%。 2. 外汇市场：美元指数小幅回升，日元兑美元大幅贬值。 文末 "阅读原文" 进入鹰眼快讯产品 多重因素使避险资金等的惯性流入驱动贵金属价格进一步走高，COMEX黄金涨3.31%至4012.3美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银涨1.61%。有色金属整体大幅上行，伦锌涨超4%， ...

Group 1 - The recent government policy report did not introduce significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" were not implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Among property owners, the most favored are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China State Construction Engineering Corporation (China State Construction) has shown steady growth in its business operations for the first eight months of 2025, with a total new contract amount of 2879.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [1] - In the construction business, the new contract amount reached 2664.4 billion yuan, up by 1.8% year-on-year, with the housing construction business contributing 1760.6 billion yuan (0.2% increase) and infrastructure business 895.4 billion yuan (5.0% increase) [1] - Domestic business accounted for 2530.6 billion yuan, marking a 2.2% year-on-year growth, while the physical indicators included a housing construction area of 155615 thousand square meters, new construction area of 18041 thousand square meters, and completed area of 12479 thousand square meters [1] Group 2 - In the real estate sector, China State Construction reported a contract sales amount of 215.5 billion yuan and a contract sales area of 8.12 million square meters, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [1] - The company acquired land reserves of 576 thousand square meters, bringing total land reserves to 7473 thousand square meters by the end of the reporting period [1] - Recent major projects amounting to 8.59 billion yuan are progressing steadily, including significant housing projects in Saudi Arabia and China, which are expected to support the completion of annual targets [2] - The real estate market in August 2025 has been influenced by policies aimed at stimulating market activity, with expectations for a seasonal rebound in September due to relaxed purchase restrictions in core first-tier cities [2] - As a leader in the construction and real estate industry, China State Construction is expected to maintain strong development resilience, supported by its robust construction capabilities, technological innovation, and quality real estate project reserves [2]

Market Overview - The current real estate market is characterized by price differentiation and ongoing policy adjustments, with national housing prices under pressure but structural opportunities emerging [3][4] - In July, first-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 1.1% year-on-year, while Shanghai experienced a 6.1% increase, indicating a divergence in market performance [3][4] - The government has implemented various policies to stabilize the market, including subsidies for families with multiple children and adjustments to housing loan policies [4][5] Policy Impact - Demand-side policies include significant subsidies for families purchasing homes, such as Wuhan's 60,000 to 120,000 yuan subsidies for families with two or three children [4][6] - Supply-side measures involve extending housing loan limits and introducing new transaction transparency measures to reduce risks [5][6] - Financial policies maintain low mortgage rates, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the lowest mortgage rates at 3.15% for commercial loans [5] Market Trends - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, with 26.5% of residential sales being existing homes in 2024, up 16 percentage points from 2020 [10] - The conversion of existing homes to affordable housing is impacting the second-hand market, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where prices are declining [10][11] - The definition of "good housing" is evolving, with a focus on quality upgrades and smart home features, leading to increased demand for modern properties [10][11] Seller Strategies - Sellers in urgent need of cash should consider pricing strategies and tax optimization to facilitate quick sales [12] - Investors holding non-core assets are advised to liquidate these properties and reinvest in prime locations or new developments with growth potential [12] - Awareness of the timing of subsidy policies is crucial for sellers to maximize benefits before potential reductions [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a surge in transactions, with new sales volume reaching over 80% of last year's total within the first seven months of this year [1] - Analysts predict that the new sales volume will hit a record high for the year, while secondary market transactions are expected to reach 45,000, the highest in four years [1] - Local buyers are driving the market, particularly in the small to medium-sized unit segment, with registrations for properties priced at HKD 6 million or below increasing to 76.9% in the first seven months of the year, up from 73% last year [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Factors - The one-month HIBOR has rebounded, but remains lower than last year's peak; potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. could lead to a decrease in HIBOR, further boosting local buying power [2] - The rising unemployment rate is currently the biggest negative factor for the property market, although recent data shows a decline in unemployment within the financial sector, which is a key buyer demographic [2] - The September Policy Address is expected to significantly influence local buyer sentiment and market dynamics [2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The government is encouraged to consider restoring the old stamp duty payment method, allowing buyers to pay after the transaction is completed, which would provide greater financial flexibility [3] - There is support for establishing a channel to facilitate cross-border property purchases between mainland China and Hong Kong, which could introduce new buying power and alleviate inventory pressure [2] - Suggestions include fully relaxing investment immigration policies to encourage property purchases, thereby attracting capital and high-quality talent to Hong Kong [2]

Group 1 - In July, Shenzhen's new housing transaction volume decreased by 18.7%, while second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 3.4% [1] - A total of 14 new projects were approved for sale in July, with a total supply of 6,405 new homes, marking a 252.6% month-on-month increase [1] - The decline in new home transactions is attributed to the traditional off-peak sales season and adverse weather conditions affecting buyer enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - In July, the average transaction price for second-hand homes in Shenzhen was 52,987 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 1.3% month-on-month decline and a 3.6% year-on-year decline [2] - The decrease in average prices is linked to a cautious mindset among sellers and an increase in negotiation space due to reduced market activity [2] - The number of second-hand homes sold in July reached 5,624 units, with residential transactions accounting for 4,656 units, indicating a 5.4% month-on-month increase [2] Group 3 - The rental market in Shenzhen remains stable, with average rental prices in July at 74.9 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.4% month-on-month [3] - The average monthly rent per unit rose to 5,608 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 0.9% year-on-year increase [3] - The rental market is experiencing a seasonal peak during the summer, with increased transactions in core areas like Futian and Luohu contributing to rising average rental levels [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the real estate sector, recommending selective investments in companies with strong fundamentals and potential policy benefits [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a slight increase of +0.3% while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by +1.7% during the week of June 28 to July 4, 2025 [3][18]. - The land market's premium rate has decreased, with a total of 762,000 square meters of residential land sold across 300 cities, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 35% and a year-on-year decline of 15% [3][29]. - The first half of 2025 showed a significant improvement in land market performance, with a total supply of 21,930 million square meters and a total transaction of 17,390 million square meters, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous years [5][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights that the sales volume of commercial housing in 47 cities reached 514,000 square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% and a year-on-year decrease of 8% [4][34]. - The average new home price in May showed a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, indicating a gradual stabilization in the market [4]. Land Market - The average transaction price for residential land in the first half of 2025 across 300 cities was 4,953 yuan per square meter, with significant year-on-year increases across different city tiers [5][14]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount included Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 41.4 billion, 40.1 billion, 39.3 billion, 34.1 billion, and 31.3 billion yuan respectively [29][33]. Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of 2025 was 1,782 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [6][16]. - The report notes a divergence where the decline in sales is greater than the decline in investment, indicating a challenging sales environment for real estate companies [6][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in real estate stocks during market dips, particularly focusing on developers with strong operations in core first and second-tier cities [7]. - Suggested companies include Jianfa International Group, China Overseas Development, and Binjiang Group for developers, and Beike for real estate intermediaries [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of the Fuzhou real estate market in June 2025, highlighting that despite a series of policy measures, the market did not meet expectations in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Fuzhou real estate market has seen a significant increase in contract signing in June, with a total of 2,811 units signed, representing a month-on-month increase of 713 units, or 33.98% [9]. - The total contract signing from January to June 2025 reached 7,289 units, with a total area of 770,701 square meters [5]. - The highest contract signing in June was recorded in the last three days of the month, contributing to a "tail-end" effect [6]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The effectiveness of previous policy measures is diminishing, leading to a challenging environment for future market stabilization efforts [4]. - The State Council's June meeting emphasized the need for a multi-faceted approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market [4]. Group 3: Regional Analysis - In June, the districts of Cangshan and Jin'an led in contract signings, with 826 and 794 units respectively, accounting for a significant portion of the market [10][14]. - Excluding the data from affordable housing projects, the changes in the commercial housing market were minimal, indicating a lack of substantial growth [7][9]. - The area of contracts signed in the eight county-level districts exceeded that of the five urban districts by 190,000 square meters, primarily due to larger average unit sizes in the counties [7].

Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities is transitioning to a stable development phase after the traditional peak sales season, with increased attention on new housing due to improved regulations and supportive policies [1][3][4] - Sales data shows mixed performance among first-tier cities, with Beijing experiencing a decline in second-hand housing transactions while new housing transactions are on the rise [1][3] - The introduction of new housing projects is crucial for short-term sales performance, with high-quality new developments attracting significant buyer interest [3][4] Sales Performance - In May, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions decreased by approximately 8.3% month-on-month to 14,277 units, while new housing transactions increased to 3,917 units [1] - Shanghai's total housing transactions reached 2.23 million square meters in May, a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - Shenzhen's total housing transactions amounted to 7,849 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.7% but a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [1] Market Dynamics - New housing projects with favorable regulations are performing well, while older projects face significant challenges in sales [3] - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 1.44 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8% [3] - The land acquisition strategy of real estate companies is becoming more focused on projects with high revenue certainty and quick cash flow recovery [3] Policy Environment - Since May, there has been an increase in supportive policies for the real estate market, including interest rate cuts and measures to stimulate housing demand [3][4] - Various second-tier cities have introduced comprehensive measures to boost the real estate market, such as increasing tax support and promoting "old-for-new" housing exchanges [3] - The policy environment is expected to remain accommodative in June, with real estate companies likely to increase their sales efforts and promotional activities [3][4] Future Outlook - The supply of projects catering to improvement needs is expected to increase in June, with companies likely to launch more high-quality housing and enhance promotional efforts [4] - New housing prices in first and second-tier cities are anticipated to remain high, with transaction hotspots concentrated in well-located and high-quality areas [4] - The current real estate market is undergoing a phase of differentiation and adjustment, requiring companies to optimize product structures and respond effectively to market challenges [4]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a package of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [3] - The four major first-tier cities have simultaneously lowered the housing provident fund loan interest rates, signaling continued easing in the real estate market to stimulate demand [3][4] - Several funds have seen gains exceeding 40%, with a focus on the robotics and innovative drug sectors, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations [6] - Moody's warned of increasing risks to the retail sector due to rising exposure to private credit, highlighting a shift in the credit market since the pandemic [6] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced adjustments, with technology stocks generally underperforming, while bank and power stocks showed strength, resulting in an overall increase in major indices [8] - The total number of newly issued bank wealth management products reached 513, with a total establishment scale of approximately 41.7 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [17]