记者丨李依农 杨雨莱 编辑丨李莹亮 在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，亚洲经济仍显韧性。面对挑战，亚洲经济体保持稳健的动力是什 么？ 近日，牛津经济研究院亚太首席经济学家卢姿蕙在接受南方财经记者专访时指出，今年亚洲多国经济表 现亮眼，部分得益于美国关税政策引发的"提前下单"效应，支撑了出口的表现。 她同时强调，"对未来几个季度部分亚洲经济体的增长势头保持相当乐观"，原因在于更多积极因素正陆 续显现：一方面，各国政府的支持性政策将陆续落地；另一方面，已有研究表明，亚太区域合作的深化 可部分对冲美国保护主义政策的负面冲击，从而缓解全球波动带来的压力。 谈及中国，卢姿蕙认为，提升生产率的关键在于科技进步与创新。凭借人工智能等前沿技术的持续突 破，中国经济有望保持长期增长动能。 卢姿蕙。资料图 南方财经：近年来，中国正在加快推动科技创新，推动高质量发展。如何评价科技创新对中国长期增长 的作用？ 卢姿蕙：科技创新非常重要。在中国，要提升生产率，核心途径可以是依靠科技进步和创新。中国本身 拥有庞大的工业基础，制造业大约占国内生产总值的四分之一。如果能够推动制造业升级，提升工业生 产水平，将对中国的长期增长产生深远而积极的影 ...

记者丨 李依农 杨雨莱 编辑丨李莹亮 在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，亚洲经济仍显韧性。面对挑战，亚洲经济体保持稳健的动 力是什么？ 近日，牛津经济研究院亚太首席经济学家卢姿蕙在接受南方财经记者专访时指出， 今年亚洲 多国经济表现亮眼，部分得益于美国关税政策引发的"提前下单"效应，支撑了出口的表现。 她同时强调，"对未来几个季度部分亚洲经济体的增长势头保持相当乐观"，原因在于更多积极 因素正陆续显现：一方面，各国政府的支持性政策将陆续落地；另一方面，已有研究表明，亚 太区域合作的深化可部分对冲美国保护主义政策的负面冲击，从而缓解全球波动带来的压力。 谈及中国，卢姿蕙认为，提升生产率的关键在于科技进步与创新。凭借人工智能等前沿技术的 持续突破，中国经济有望保持长期增长动能。 卢姿蕙。资料图 南方财经： 近年来，中国正在加快推动科技创新，推动高质量发展。如何评价科技创 新对中国长期增长的作用？ 卢姿蕙： 科技创新非常重要。在中国，要提升生产率，核心途径可以是依靠科技进步和创 新。中国本身拥有庞大的工业基础，制造业大约占国内生产总值的四分之一。如果能够推动制 造业升级，提升工业生产水平，将对中国的长期增长产生深远而 ...

（原标题：牛津亚太首席经济学家：科创将长期支撑中国增长｜全球财经连线） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 李依农 杨雨莱 在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，亚洲经济仍显韧性。面对挑战，亚洲经济体保持稳健的动力是什 么？ 近日，牛津经济研究院亚太首席经济学家卢姿蕙在接受南方财经记者专访时指出，今年亚洲多国经济表 现亮眼，部分得益于美国关税政策引发的"提前下单"效应，支撑了出口的表现。 她同时强调，"对未来几个季度部分亚洲经济体的增长势头保持相当乐观"，原因在于更多积极因素正陆 续显现：一方面，各国政府的支持性政策将陆续落地；另一方面，已有研究表明，亚太区域合作的深化 可部分对冲美国保护主义政策的负面冲击，从而缓解全球波动带来的压力。 谈及中国，卢姿蕙认为，提升生产率的关键在于科技进步与创新。凭借人工智能等前沿技术的持续突 破，中国经济有望保持长期增长动能。 全球财经连线：近年来，中国正在加快推动科技创新，推动高质量发展。如何评价科技创新对中国长期 增长的作用？ 卢姿蕙：科技创新非常重要。在中国，要提升生产率，核心途径可以是依靠科技进步和创新。中国本身 拥有庞大的工业基础，制造业大约占国内生产总值的四分之一。如果能够 ...

Group 1: Economic Transformation - In 1978, China had a GDP per capita of only $156, but by 2024, it has risen to $13,400, marking a significant transformation into an open economy [3] - China is now the world's largest exporter, the second-largest importer, and the third-largest foreign investor, with its manufacturing GDP share increasing from approximately 8% in 2004 to around 30% in 2021 [3][4] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - China's total export and import values grew from about $10 billion each in 1978 to $3.56 trillion in exports and $2.71 trillion in imports by 2023, representing 15% and 11% of global trade, respectively [3][4] - The trade surplus for China in 2024 is projected to be $800 billion [3] Group 3: Import and Export Categories - The import composition has shifted, with raw materials now being the largest category, while capital goods' share has decreased from a peak of 40% in 2004 to 30% [4][6] - Exports have transitioned from labor-intensive consumer goods to capital-intensive products, with capital goods accounting for 41% of total exports by 2004 [5][6] Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - China's direct foreign investment has grown significantly from a few billion dollars in the early 2000s to $170 billion in 2024, surpassing foreign investment into China [6][7] - The share of manufacturing investment in China's foreign direct investment rose from 7.8% in 2014 to 13.7% in 2015, maintaining an average of 15.5% from 2015 to 2023 [7] Group 5: Global Industrial Shifts - Global industrial transfer follows a pattern where production concentrates in central areas to leverage economies of scale, with China currently experiencing an outward industrial transfer phase [8] - Chinese investments are diversifying into Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and North America, reflecting a multi-directional development trend [8] Group 6: Belt and Road Initiative - The Belt and Road Initiative is crucial for infrastructure development in low-income countries, which often struggle with industrial capacity despite low labor costs [9][10] - A World Bank report indicates that investments in transportation infrastructure under the initiative have significantly reduced transport times and increased foreign direct investment, aiding millions in escaping poverty [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual standards in U.S. trade policy towards China and India, highlighting the economic and geopolitical implications of these differences in treatment [1][10]. Trade Dynamics - In 2023, China's exports to the U.S. reached $500 billion, while India's were only $86 billion, indicating a significant disparity that affects the impact of any potential tariffs [3][4]. - Imposing high tariffs on China would lead to immediate price increases in U.S. supermarkets, while similar measures against India would have a more diluted effect, potentially unnoticed by American consumers [3][4]. Financial Relations - China holds $800 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and plays a crucial role in providing liquidity to the U.S. Federal Reserve, making it a significant player in U.S. financial markets [6]. - In contrast, India's financial assets in the U.S. are relatively limited, reducing the potential for significant market disruptions if sanctions are applied [6]. Supply Chain Considerations - Major U.S. companies like Apple and Tesla rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing, making it risky for the U.S. to impose sanctions on China due to potential supply chain disruptions [6]. - India's manufacturing capabilities are still developing, and it cannot yet replace China in critical supply chains, making it a more expendable partner in U.S. calculations [6]. Military and Strategic Factors - The U.S. military's strategic calculations are influenced by China's advanced military capabilities, which necessitate a cautious approach, while India's military does not pose the same level of concern [7]. - The difference in international influence is evident, as China can leverage its energy imports to affect global prices, while India lacks similar capabilities [7]. Political Implications - The U.S. is facing political pressures, especially with the upcoming 2024 elections, which complicate its ability to take strong actions against China without risking backlash from voters [7][8]. - India's role as a counterbalance to China is becoming increasingly questioned domestically, with rising skepticism about the reliability of U.S. support [8]. Long-term Consequences - The dual standards in U.S. policy may undermine its credibility globally, as countries may seek alternative partnerships if they perceive unfair treatment [8][11]. - The ongoing situation could lead to a shift in global economic alliances, with countries like India exploring more independent strategies, including increased use of alternative currencies for trade [11][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights Japan's manufacturing industry characterized by regional specialization, forming a "one county, one industry" model, which is a deep industrial cluster development strategy [2][6] - In the transportation machinery sector, Aichi Prefecture serves as the base for Toyota, creating a complete ecosystem from vehicle manufacturing to parts supply, while Gunma Prefecture also focuses on automobiles and parts, demonstrating high spatial concentration [2][6] - The report emphasizes the structural changes in manufacturing and regional response strategies, with regions facing challenges such as population decline and international market shifts, actively promoting transformations from manufacturing to non-manufacturing sectors [2][6] Group 2 - Japan's manufacturing industry is compared with China, the U.S., and Germany, noting that China's advantage lies in its complete industrial chain and scale effects, while Japan excels in lean production and precision manufacturing [7][9] - The report indicates that Germany shares similarities with Japan, focusing on quality craftsmanship and having many "hidden champion" companies in niche markets, while the U.S. emphasizes technological innovation and brand value [9][10] - Future competition in manufacturing will depend on how countries leverage their strengths while achieving transformation and upgrading, with Japan needing to integrate better into global innovation networks [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - China's role in global trade is shifting from a "manufacturer" to a "creator" and "developer," with knowledge-intensive service exports expected to become a new growth point following traditional goods exports [1][3][12]. Group 1: Current Status of Knowledge-Intensive Service Exports - China's knowledge-intensive service export scale still lags behind developed economies like the US, UK, and Germany, indicating significant room for improvement [4][12]. - In 2023, China's service exports reached $381.8 billion, a 74.4% increase since 2015, surpassing the global service trade growth of 57.2% during the same period [4]. - The highest service export sector in China is scientific research, technical services, and other business services, amounting to $104 billion, but still lower than the US, UK, and Germany by $150.1 billion, $126 billion, and $110.6 billion respectively [7][8]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Knowledge-Intensive Services - China's technological innovation capabilities are rapidly increasing, transitioning from a scarcity of technical and knowledge factors to a more abundant state [13][30]. - The country has a large pool of high-quality labor, providing a relative cost advantage in developing knowledge-intensive services [19][26]. - In 2024, China is expected to produce 10.59 million university graduates and 1.084 million master's and doctoral graduates, indicating a strong talent supply [20][30]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Promoting Knowledge-Intensive Service Exports - Align service trade standards with high-level free trade agreements like CPTPP to enhance international competitiveness [31]. - Improve cross-border data flow regulations to facilitate digital service exports [32]. - Strengthen mutual recognition mechanisms for professional qualifications in service sectors to reduce compliance costs [33]. - Enhance cooperation in digital infrastructure with Belt and Road economies to stimulate service demand [34]. - Establish regional overseas intellectual property protection centers to safeguard companies' intellectual property rights abroad [35].

Core Insights - The book "The Ideas of Economics" focuses on the evolution of economic thought over the past 200 years, presenting a collective biography of influential economists [1][4] - It features 13 prominent economists, including Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, and Joseph Stiglitz, highlighting their contributions to modern economic theory [1][5] Summary by Sections - **Historical Context**: The book emphasizes the need for a comprehensive historical understanding of economic theories to appreciate their relevance and application in contemporary contexts [4] - **Influential Theories**: Key theories discussed include labor division, comparative advantage, marginal utility, and Nash equilibrium, which have shaped discussions on market intervention, taxation, and monetary policy [4] - **Selection Criteria**: The selection of the 13 economists is based on their significant contributions to modern economic thought rather than their radical ideas, acknowledging the challenge of choosing from numerous influential figures [5]

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The direct effect of tariffs may reduce the U.S. economic growth rate by 0.5% to 0.75%, with a negative impact of approximately 0.1% on global economic growth [5] - Tariffs are expected to raise commodity prices and increase the cost of production components, affecting both domestic production and global exports [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and international relations has led many domestic and foreign companies to postpone significant investments, which may have a more substantial impact on U.S. economic growth than the tariffs themselves [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Trade Policy and Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration is characterized by aggressive unilateral actions, which may lead to long-term damage to global trade relationships [6][8] - The potential for a restructuring of global trade networks is anticipated, similar to past global shocks, although this may slow down globalization rather than reverse it [6][8] - The U.S. may not fully withdraw from the WTO but could adopt a less active role, which might encourage other member countries to push for rule reforms [9] Group 3: Future of the Dollar and Global Currency Dynamics - The dollar is expected to maintain its dominant position for the next 10 to 20 years, but its supremacy may be challenged due to U.S. fiscal imbalances and concerns over investment safety [10] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy and the safety of U.S. debt could weaken the dollar's status in the global economy [10][11] Group 4: WTO Reform and Global Trade Rules - There is a pressing need for WTO rule updates to address new global challenges such as climate change and health crises, as current rules do not adequately reflect these issues [8][9] - The cooperation of major economies, including the U.S., China, and the EU, is essential for establishing a new, acceptable rule system within the WTO [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding intrinsic value in investment decisions, particularly in the banking sector, amidst recent valuation recovery and market skepticism towards banks [2][3]. Summary by Sections Intrinsic Value and Its Determinants - Intrinsic value is determined by both internal and external factors, with the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) being a conservative approach to assess it through current and future dividends [2]. - Internal factors include current dividends and their growth, which should be viewed over a long-term horizon of fifty to sixty years rather than just short-term fluctuations [2][3]. Current Banking Environment - The banking sector is currently experiencing a challenging period with low growth due to a declining interest rate cycle, which has led to a zero-growth scenario for banks [2]. - Despite this, the long-term perspective suggests that as interest rates stabilize, banks will resume growth in line with M2 money supply, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][3]. Comparison with Market Average - The article highlights that while bank profit growth has decreased, the average profit levels in the economy have decreased even more, suggesting that banks remain relatively more profitable [3][4]. - The concept of relative advantage is crucial; even if a bank's absolute performance declines, its valuation can still increase if it outperforms the average [4]. Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - Investors should adopt a long-term view and consider comparative advantages when analyzing banks, recognizing the unique characteristics of different banks based on their regional and operational factors [5]. - Many strong banks currently offer dividend yields around 5%, and despite the challenges of a declining interest rate environment, they still exhibit growth potential, leading to attractive annualized returns [5]. Economic and Social Implications - The recovery of bank valuations is supported by economic fundamentals and aligns with the needs of the broader economy, contributing to the stability of the capital market and promoting economic growth [5]. - The article posits that the valuation recovery of banks can help repair the balance sheets affected by the real estate crisis, providing a solid foundation for credit expansion and wealth creation [5].