周五油价上涨，原因是市场担忧伊朗产量可能中断，以及委内瑞拉供应存在不确定性。 布伦特原油期货上涨1.35美元，涨幅为2.18%，收于每桶63.34美元。 两位消息人士称，石油巨头雪佛龙公司、全球贸易商维多公司和托克公司等企业正在竞标美国政府合 同，以销售委内瑞拉国家石油公司在严重石油禁运期间库存中累积的至多5000万桶石油。该禁运已涉及 四艘油轮被扣押。 Moomoo ANZ市场策略师蒂娜·滕表示："未来几天市场将关注库存委内瑞拉石油的销售和交付结果。" 互联网监测组织NetBlocks报告称，周四伊朗全国范围遭遇互联网中断。此前，首都德黑兰、主要城市 马什哈德和伊斯法罕以及全国其他地区因经济困境引发的抗议活动仍在持续。 俄罗斯军方周五表示，已向乌克兰目标发射了高超音速"小锤"导弹。俄罗斯国防部在声明中称，目标包 括支持乌克兰军事工业综合体的能源基础设施。 纽约商品交易所2月交割的西得州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1.36美元，涨幅为2.35%，收于每桶 59.12美元。 两大基准油价在周四连续两日下跌后反弹逾3%。 盛宝银行大宗商品分析主管奥勒·汉森表示："伊朗抗议活动似乎愈演愈烈，引发市场对供应中断的担 ...

【现货方面】 需求：截止1月8日，装置暂无明显变化，个别装置提负，PTA负荷在78.2%。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【行情展望】 1月8日，亚洲PX价格跌幅较明显。原料走势震荡，但PX效益处于高位，促使供应增加的同时，下游聚 酯日内减产计划明确，需求侧预期松动使得PX价格回调明显。现货方面，2、3月现货月差在扩至-3，2 月浮动继续下跌，跌至-6/-5，3月现货预计偏弱维持在-1/+0.5左右。尾盘实货2月在883/886商谈，3月在 879/888商谈，2/3换月在-12/+2商谈。两单2月亚洲现货分别在885、884成交，两单3月亚洲现货均在888 成交。(单位：美元/吨) 目前PX效益较好，国内外部分PX工厂提负生产，1月PX供应维持高位；需求来看，元旦后终端开工继 续下 ...

· 国都港股操作导航 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49266.11 | 0.55 | | 标普 500 指数 | 6921.46 | 0.01 | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 23480.02 | -0.44 | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 10044.69 | -0.04 | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 25127.46 | 0.02 | | 日经 225 指数 | 51117.26 | -1.63 | | 台湾加权指数 | 30360.55 | -0.25 | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 4082.98 | -0.07 | | 深证成指 | 13959.48 | -0.51 | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 26149.31 | -1.17 | | 国企指数 | 9039.34 | -1.09 | | 红筹指数 | 4094.58 | -0.50 | | 恒生科技指数 | 5678.34 | -1.05 | | AH 股溢价指数 | 122.6 | 0.05 | | 恒生期货 (1 月) | ...

【1月8日调查：欧佩克12月原油产量稳定，多因素影响市场】1月8日一项调查显示，欧佩克12月原油产 量保持稳定。虽委内瑞拉产量降至两年来最低点，但被伊拉克等成员国增产抵消。欧佩克日均产量略高 于2,900万桶，与上月基本持平。 受美国拦截扣押油轮施压策略影响，委内瑞拉日产量下降约14%，降 至83万桶。目前伦敦油价在每桶60美元上方波动，处五年来最低水平附近，挤压了欧佩克+成员国财政 空间。 在此不确定背景下，八个主要成员国本月再次同意一季度冻结产量，暂停去年大规模供应复苏 计划。12月增产最多的是伊拉克，日产量增加8万桶，达平均每日437万桶。 伊拉克产量大幅超过其议 定的欧佩克+配额，不过该组织数据显示其仍符合目标。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜受油价下跌影响，加元兑美元汇率跌至四周低点，挪威克朗亦走软。此前，美国总统特 朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美国移交多达5000万桶受制裁的原油。特朗普指出，这些原油将按市场价格出 售，并由他亲自掌控相关资金，以确保其惠及美国和委内瑞拉。此前，美国在周末采取了旨在驱逐委内 瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的军事行动。 ...

截至2026年1月6日 11:02，国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨1.45%，成分股洲际油气(600759)上涨 9.21%，上海石化(600688)上涨4.36%，大众公用(600635)上涨3.35%，招商南油(601975)，石化油服 (600871)等个股跟涨。油气ETF(159697)上涨1.44%，最新价报1.2元。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油 (601857)、中国石化(600028)、中国海油(600938)、杰瑞股份(002353)、广汇能源(600256)、招商轮船 (601872)、新奥股份(600803)、九丰能源(605090)、中远海能(600026)、大众公用(600635)，前十大权重 股合计占比67.11%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin International indicates that the recent capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the US military and President Trump's encouragement for US oil companies to invest in Venezuela's oil industry may negatively impact oil prices due to the potential doubling of Venezuela's oil production to 2 million barrels per day over time [2] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Trump's statements are expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices [2] - Zhongyin International believes that WTI crude oil prices will not remain below $50 per barrel in the long term, as this would hinder US companies' investments in Venezuela [2] Group 2: Market Monitoring - Close attention is required on the situations in Iran and Ukraine, as they may influence market dynamics [2] - Zhongyin International maintains a "neutral" rating on the Chinese oil industry, anticipating potential selling pressure on China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro has created uncertainty in Venezuela's oil sector, impacting crude oil prices and U.S. investment strategies in the region [1][2]. Oil Prices - U.S. crude oil prices decreased by 31 cents (0.54%) to $57.01 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent fell by 22 cents (0.36%) to $60.53 per barrel [1]. U.S. Investment Objectives - The Trump administration aims to facilitate U.S. investment in Venezuela's oil sector, with plans for major U.S. oil companies to invest billions to repair the country's oil infrastructure [2]. Venezuela's Oil Reserves - Venezuela holds the largest proven crude oil reserves globally, totaling 303 billion barrels, which accounts for approximately 17% of the world's total [3]. Production Trends - Venezuela's oil production has significantly declined from a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to about 800,000 barrels per day currently [4]. Current U.S. Operations - Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company currently operating in Venezuela, exporting around 140,000 barrels per day as of the end of Q4 2025 [4]. Short-term Price Impact - The short-term impact of Maduro's removal on oil prices is uncertain; production may increase if a U.S.-backed government is established and sanctions are lifted [5]. Long-term Production Outlook - Long-term U.S. investment could lead to increased production, potentially exerting downward pressure on oil prices, although recovery is expected to be gradual and partial [6]. Investment Requirements - It is estimated that $10 billion annually is needed to restore Venezuela's oil production to historic levels, with a stable security environment being crucial for growth [7]. Potential Production Recovery - Full sanctions relief could result in several hundred thousand barrels of production returning within a year, provided there is an orderly transition of power [7]. Risks of Chaotic Transition - A chaotic change of power could lead to significant disruptions, similar to past scenarios in Libya or Iraq, complicating recovery efforts [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on crude oil is to focus on short - term sentiment - driven positives and consider adding short positions on rallies. The market may open high and then decline, with short positions recommended to be held. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI are under significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks, testing 380 yuan per barrel. Although the decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, a long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may lead to increased volatility in oil prices [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply features "regional differentiation + geopolitical disturbances". The demand is dominated by the Asia - Pacific region, showing significant regional disparities. The overall view is that the market may open high and then decline, with short - term sentiment - related upside and long - term downward pressure on prices [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - The gold - to - oil ratio has strengthened again. Short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to "re - inflation" trading in the medium to long term. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [18][20][21]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The production of some countries has changed, such as the increase in production in Guyana and Brazil, and the potential impact of sanctions on the supply of Venezuela and Iran. The export volume of OPEC + core members reached a peak in September and declined in the fourth quarter. US shale oil drilling and production have stabilized [8][9][23]. 3.4 Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe have rebounded, and those of Chinese state - owned and private refineries have also increased. The global refining capacity has a net increase of 3.6 million barrels per day. The demand in China is shifting from fuel to chemical raw materials, and the demand in Europe is weak [10][63][65]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have stabilized, while Cushing inventories remain significantly below the historical average. European diesel inventories have decreased, and gasoline inventories have increased. Global in - transit crude oil inventories have declined from a high level, and global crude oil floating storage is high [67][71][73]. 3.6 Price and Spread - The spot market was weak during the holiday season. The Dubai spot spread entered a contango for the first time in two years. North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the valuation of SC is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [83][94][95].

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela may lead to a significant shift in the global oil market, with potential implications for oil supply and prices. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Production and Impact - Venezuela, a key oil-producing nation with proven reserves of approximately 303 billion barrels, accounts for about 17% of global oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia [1] - Current oil production is around 1 million barrels per day, with exports at approximately 900,000 barrels per day, which could face disruption if the country continues to resist U.S. influence [2] - Historically, Venezuela's oil production peaked at 3.75 million barrels per day, indicating substantial long-term growth potential if stability is restored [3] Group 2: Market Predictions and Supply Dynamics - Analysts predict that if U.S. oil companies return to Venezuela, production could increase by 500,000 barrels per day over the next two years, potentially raising the total global oil supply [3] - The international oil market is expected to experience oversupply, with oil prices projected to fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel by 2025, and further decline to $50 to $70 per barrel by 2026 [4] - The process of restructuring Venezuela's oil industry is anticipated to be lengthy, as past political instability and sanctions have led to a significant decline in production and aging infrastructure [4]