互联网巨头的线下支付数据于2025年二三季度转正，其中三季度线下支付增长加速。 高端消费呈现回暖，Hermès、Prada 同店销售持续增长。Louis Vuitton、Burberry上半年同店降幅收窄， 三季度同店转正。其他高端品牌，同店降幅持续收窄。LVMH集团旗下四大品牌——路易威登（Louis Vuitton）、迪奥（Dior）、蒂芙尼（Tiffany） 和诺悠翩雅（Loro Piana）于2025年12月在北京开设全新 旗舰店，这是中国奢侈品市场复苏的重要风向标。 餐饮消费方面，头部火锅品牌翻台率降幅持续收窄，2025年8月份后逐步恢复至持平区间。知名鱼火锅 品牌翻台率降幅持续收窄，2025年11月回到持平，12月进一步实现正增长。 专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 从2023年以来，传统消费板块整体经历调整，供需结构逐步匹配，库存去化也较为充分。从2025年三季 度开始传统消费在多个维度都呈现了触底回升迹象。展望2026年，传统消费在政策支持、周期规律以及 较低基数的作用下有望呈现一定的复苏态势。 行业中观：传统消费景气度触底有望复苏 从2023年开始，消费的主 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|商贸零售 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中国硬折扣零售的行业"奇点"已 至？ 中国零售渠道变革跟踪系列报告（一） [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-28 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 商贸零售 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]嵇文欣 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260520050001 | | SFC CE No. BUA982 | | 021-38003653 | | jiwenxin@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 曹敦鑫 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525080002 | | 021-38003743 | | caodunxin@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，曹敦鑫并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | ...

交汇点讯 1月24日，ALDI奥乐齐位于南京的四家门店：巧刻广场店、仙林金鹰店、景枫中心店、江北印象汇店正 式开业，遍布南京市建邺、栖霞、江宁、浦口四大人流密集的主要城区。开业当天吸引了大量"超会省"的南京市 民前来采购一日三餐买菜做饭的必需品。 植根本土，服务消费者需求，多款本地特色产品时令上新。奥乐齐不仅供应日常高频刚需好物，还坚持深耕本 土，密切关注中国消费者的喜好和需求，应需推出了响应质价比和健康消费趋势，以及具有本土风味特色的产 品：紧贴当下消费者对甄选食材及健康饮食日渐增长的追求，奥乐齐近期推出了两大新自牌美食家和好生活系 列，致力于让品质与好生活触手可及。 此次伴随着南京开业，奥乐齐本着服务本土的理念，特别带来一系列具有南京特色风味的产品，如樱桃谷鸭腌制 的金陵风味盐水鸭、皮脆肉嫩的南京烤鸭、甜糯芳香的桂花糖藕、新鲜采摘的南京本地杨花樱桃萝卜等。让南京 消费者在家附近的社区超市就能买到好品质还不贵的地道风味。 此次进驻南京，奥乐齐推出了一系列面向消费者的开业活动："新会员首单实付满99元返10元优惠券""月累积消费 满200元送鸡蛋""加入会员到店实付满129元即可参与惊喜抽奖，100%中奖"等 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Mingming Hen Mang (鸣鸣很忙) Industry Overview - The hard discount retail channel is rapidly emerging in response to the trend of consumer downtrading, focusing on cost control and efficient operations to meet the demand for quality-price ratio among consumers [1] - The Chinese leisure food and beverage retail market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - By 2024, chain retailers are expected to account for 57.1% of the total GMV in the Chinese leisure food and beverage retail industry [1] Key Financial Metrics - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 46.37 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 75% [2] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.81 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 241% [2] Market Position - Mingming Hen Mang holds a market share of 1.5% in the industry, positioning itself among the leading players [1] Product Strategy - The company has diversified its product offerings, with 34% of its SKUs being customized products and 38% available for bulk purchase [1] - The ongoing exploration of the "snack+" strategy includes the introduction of a dual-brand 3.0 store model [1] Store Network - As of Q3 2025, Mingming Hen Mang operates a network of 19,517 stores across 28 provinces and all tiered cities in China, with approximately 59% of the stores located in county and town areas [2] Additional Insights - The company is expanding its product range to include categories such as daily necessities, stationery, baking products, and fresh and frozen items [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's snack retail industry is projected to see store numbers double by 2024 and grow over 30% to 42,000 and 56,000 stores by 2025, with industry sales expected to exceed 220 billion yuan by 2025. The competition is expected to intensify in 2024, but ease in 2025, with a significant focus on store expansion and price wars among leading companies [1]. Group 1: Store Expansion - The snack retail industry has significant room for expansion, with leading companies continuing to open new stores. The estimated number of stores is expected to double to 42,000 in 2024 and further expand to 56,000 by the end of 2025, although the growth rate will slow down. Based on saturation levels in Hunan province and other demographic factors, the industry could potentially expand to 70,000 to 80,000 stores, indicating over 30% expansion potential [1]. - The industry is experiencing a concentration trend, with the top two companies currently holding 71% of the market share, which is expected to rise to over 80%, indicating that there is still over 50% room for new store openings [1]. Group 2: Competition - In 2024, competition in the snack retail industry is expected to intensify, with leading companies employing various subsidies to accelerate store openings and capture market share. Following the intense price wars of 2024, a dual-leader competitive landscape has emerged, leading to a significant improvement in competition by 2025, with a notable reduction in store opening subsidies [2]. - The era of price competition is considered over, with future competition likely to focus on brand strength, product assortment, digital operations, and private label products [2]. Group 3: Store Efficiency - Despite a decline in single-store revenue due to increased store density, there are signs of improvement. In the first half of 2025, store sales are expected to drop by over 10%, extending the payback period for new stores from 1-2 years to 2-3 years. Companies are responding by diversifying product offerings, increasing store sizes, experimenting with discount supermarkets, and enhancing private label products to improve average transaction values [3]. - The expansion of non-food categories and optimization of product structures are ongoing, with leading companies showing signs of improvement in same-store sales in the second half of 2025, with a noticeable narrowing of the sales decline compared to the first half [3]. Group 4: Insights from BIM - BIM, a leading discount retailer in Turkey, has demonstrated robust store expansion through a limited SKU strategy, focusing on private label products, and efficient supply chain management. The company has maintained a high-value retail model, proving resilient in various economic conditions [4]. - The study of BIM suggests that adapting to consumer demands for variety and quality is crucial, necessitating SKU optimization and store renovations to support same-store sales. BIM has successfully expanded its SKU count from 600 to 900, while also introducing new store formats to meet diverse consumer needs [4]. - As purchasing volumes increase, discount retailers may find it reasonable to establish their own production and processing supply chains for better cost and quality control. BIM has entered upstream manufacturing, enhancing its private label product offerings [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's snack retail industry is highlighted, with projections indicating significant growth in store numbers and sales revenue in the coming years [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Projections - It is estimated that the number of snack retail stores will double year-on-year by 2024 and grow over 30% to 42,000 and 56,000 stores by 2024 and 2025, respectively [1] - The industry sales scale is expected to exceed 220 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Increased competition is anticipated in 2024, with leading snack retail companies accelerating store expansion through store openings and price wars [1] - By 2025, competition is expected to ease, although leading companies may experience a decline in same-store sales in the first half of the year, with improvements noted in the second half [1] Group 3: Strategic Insights - The analysis of Turkey's leading hard discount retailer BIM suggests that domestic hard discount retail formats can withstand economic cycles and maintain resilient growth [1] - There remains over 50% potential for store openings among leading snack retail companies, with key future development tasks including category expansion, private label product management, store format optimization, and refined operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is accelerating its strategic transformation by opening 14 new hard discount stores in November, bringing the total to 65, enhancing its community-focused retail network and providing consumers with high-quality, low-price shopping options [1][9]. Group 1: Store Expansion and Strategy - The new stores are strategically located in key communities in Wuhan and surrounding areas, targeting family and young consumer groups to meet high-frequency shopping needs [3]. - The company is leveraging its operational experience and proven models to accelerate expansion, focusing on core livelihood categories while optimizing product structure and supply chain [5]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement and Promotions - During the opening period, the new stores are offering promotional activities such as a lottery for purchases over a certain amount, alongside a diverse range of high-quality private label products, leading to a surge in customer traffic [7]. - The company is utilizing its "Baobao Life" app to enhance customer engagement, allowing new customers to register and receive exclusive offers, further stimulating consumer interest [7]. Group 3: Commitment to Value and Community - The opening of these 14 hard discount stores reflects the company's commitment to its mission of benefiting the public, aiming to establish hard discount stores as a new growth engine while enhancing product offerings and service quality [9].

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou is expanding into offline retail to seek growth amidst declining e-commerce performance and increasing competition from major players like Alibaba and JD.com [1][3] E-commerce Performance - Kuaishou's GMV growth has slowed from 78% in 2021 to 17% in 2024 [3] - The company is under investigation for violations of e-commerce laws, highlighting issues like false marketing and counterfeit products [3] - Kuaishou's AI business, seen as a new growth avenue, generated only 250 million yuan in Q2 2025, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue [3] Offline Retail Strategy - Kuaishou's entry into offline retail appears to be a response to competitive pressures rather than a confident expansion [4] - Unlike competitors who have established various offline formats, Kuaishou has primarily relied on third-party products without building its own brand [6][8] - The company has opted for partnerships with supermarkets rather than launching its own discount retail brand, indicating a cautious approach [8] Market Dynamics - Kuaishou's local life services have seen significant growth, with GMV in new tier cities increasing by over 220% [9] - The company is focusing on new tier cities, where it has a greater impact compared to higher-tier cities [9] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Alibaba and JD.com have developed integrated online and offline ecosystems, while Kuaishou has yet to establish a strong presence in instant retail [8] - Kuaishou's "store-in-store" model may reduce exploration costs but could also affect its brand perception [8] Conclusion - Kuaishou faces significant challenges in its offline retail strategy, needing to navigate competitive pressures and internal limitations to achieve sustainable growth [11]

Core Insights - Recent price wars have erupted among supermarkets in major cities, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai, driven by aggressive discount strategies from new entrants like Meituan's "Happy Monkey" and established players like Wumart [1][4][5] Group 1: Price War Dynamics - Meituan's "Happy Monkey" has initiated a tiered discount strategy, offering significant reductions such as 60% off on certain items, attracting customers eager to take advantage of the deals [1][4] - In Shanghai, supermarkets like Aoleqi have also slashed prices on imported meats by nearly 30%, leading to increased consumer purchases of these products [5][15] - The competition has intensified, with local residents actively sharing their shopping experiences and discounts in community groups, indicating a strong consumer engagement in the price war [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Strategies - "Happy Monkey" strategically opened stores in less competitive areas to avoid direct competition with established giants like Wumart, which has been rapidly expanding its discount store format [7][8] - Wumart has been proactive in opening new discount stores, with plans to increase its total to 25 by the end of the year, leveraging its existing infrastructure to minimize costs [8][11] - Wumart's cost-saving measures include reducing product variety and increasing the share of private label goods, allowing for lower prices and faster inventory turnover [12][11] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The hard discount market in China is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, with a current penetration rate of only 8%, indicating significant growth potential [14] - Major players like JD.com and Hema are also preparing to enter the hard discount space, suggesting a broader competitive landscape [14][16] - The success of hard discount models relies on high sales volume to maintain low prices, with companies like Wumart aiming for hundreds of stores to achieve economies of scale [15][16] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Expectations - Consumers are increasingly focused on long-term value and quality, seeking not just low prices but also assurance of product freshness and service quality [18][19] - The ongoing price competition is expected to benefit consumers, as companies strive to balance affordability with quality to retain customer loyalty [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The management change at Aldi China, with Christoph Schwaiger stepping down and Chen Jia taking over as CEO, reflects the urgent need for the company to adapt to the rapidly evolving discount retail market in China, where competition is intensifying with new entrants like Meituan and JD [1][5][6]. Company Overview - Aldi China has only 79 stores after six years in the market, significantly lagging behind competitors like Super Box NB, which has nearly 300 stores [5][8]. - The company’s sales per store are approximately 36 million yuan, indicating a viable business model, but its slow expansion has hindered its ability to capitalize on market opportunities [6][12]. Market Context - The hard discount market in China is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, with Aldi facing fierce competition as it transitions from a pilot phase to a scale-up phase [8][12]. - Aldi's slow pace of expansion has resulted in missed opportunities and increased supply chain costs, widening the gap with local competitors [8][19]. Management Transition - Chen Jia's appointment is seen as a strategic shift from establishing a business model to aggressively capturing market share, as he has a strong background in local market dynamics [10][14]. - The retirement of Chen Yougang marks the end of Aldi's foundational phase in China, necessitating a more agile and efficient management approach [10][14]. Strategic Focus - Aldi plans to expand its presence in the Yangtze River Delta, aiming to increase its store count to 200 by 2026, with a focus on cities with high GDP [16][19]. - The company is also working on improving its supply chain efficiency to reduce costs, with a target of achieving a logistics cost below 5% [19][22]. Challenges Ahead - Aldi faces significant challenges in maintaining product quality during rapid expansion, as evidenced by recent consumer complaints regarding food safety [22][23]. - The company must balance speed and stability in its growth strategy to avoid being outpaced by local competitors [23].