2026年1月25日上午，北京市十六届人大四次会议开幕。北京市市长殷勇作政府工作报告，针对2026年 房地产工作作出明确安排，围绕稳定房地产市场、发展住房租赁、建设更多好房子、大力推动城市更新 等多个关键词，划定了北京楼市全年发展方向。 业内人士分析认为，从政府工作报告中能清晰看出，北京将通过优供给、补齐居住短板的举措，重点满 足不同家庭的居住需求，尤其是聚焦青年人和城市基层服务人员的住房保障。在好房子打造上，做品质 升级，实现改善引领，进而满足更多家庭的个体化居住需求，形成量身定制的居住生活改善支持体系， 最终带动房地产市场真正走向企稳状态。 聚焦两类人群，打造多梯度租赁供给体系 相较2025年政府工作报告的表述，今年的楼市部署有哪些新亮点？合硕机构首席分析师郭毅解读道，当 前房地产市场正处于调整阶段，2026年楼市核心关键词为"着力稳定房地产市场"，工作关键在于稳定市 场预期、筑牢行业发展根基，后续政策层面大概率会以更大力度出台。 租赁住房是今年政府工作报告的一个重点，尤其是青年人的住房问题。郭毅称，政府工作报告中"一张 床、一间房、一套房"的描述，通过打造多梯度的租赁住房产品体系，能够精准匹配青年人、城 ...

经济观察网据人民财讯消息，1月26日，广东省十四届人大五次会议在广州开幕，广东省省长孟凡利向 大会作政府工作报告。报告指出，2026年将着力稳定房地产市场。因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给， 推动闲置商业办公用房盘活利用，加强保障性住房建设和筹集，健全住房租赁市场制度。系统推进好房 子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，提升房屋品质和物业服务质量。鼓励推广智能建造、装配式建筑、 模块化建筑，做大做强建筑业。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the commitment to stabilize the real estate market in the current year [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will implement city-specific and precise policies to address local market conditions [1] - The "white list" system for real estate financing will be leveraged to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [1] Group 2 - There will be a focus on supporting both rigid and improvement housing demands from residents [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, led by Minister Ni Hong, emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market this year through targeted and precise policies, including the effective implementation of the "white list" financing system for real estate companies to support reasonable financing needs and meet the housing demands of residents [1] Group 1 - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market this year [1] - The approach will involve city-specific and precise policy measures [1] - The "white list" financing system will be utilized to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [1] Group 2 - There will be support for residents' rigid and improved housing demands [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing until December 31, 2027, to support the construction and operation of public rental housing [1] Tax Incentives Summary - Exemption from urban land use tax during the construction period and after completion for public rental housing [1] - Exemption from stamp duty for public rental housing management units related to construction and management [1] - Exemption from deed tax and stamp duty for public rental housing purchased by management units [1] - Exemption from stamp duty for both parties in the rental agreement of public rental housing [1] - Exemption from land value-added tax for organizations transferring old houses as public rental housing, provided the appreciation does not exceed 20% of the deductible amount [1] - Exemption from personal income tax for housing rental subsidies received by eligible urban housing security families from local governments [1] - Exemption from property tax for public rental housing [1] - Exemption from value-added tax on rental income obtained from operating public rental housing [1] Policy Context - The announcement reflects a continued commitment to support the real estate market despite the national fiscal work meeting's emphasis on standardizing tax incentives [1] - Experts anticipate more policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market to be implemented following the central economic work meeting's directive [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS published a research report indicating that the article titled "Improving and Stabilizing Real Estate Market Expectations" in the Qiushi magazine highlights the crucial role of the real estate industry in China's economic development, which led to a significant rise in domestic property stocks by up to 7% on January 5th [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector plays a vital role in the economic landscape of China [1] - The content of the article does not present much new information but reaffirms the importance of the real estate industry, contrasting with market expectations following the recent Politburo meeting that suggested a decline in the sector's significance [1] - There is speculation that authorities may introduce policies to stabilize rental prices, aiming to narrow the gap between rental yields and mortgage rates, which could enhance market sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - UBS estimates that the authorities may lower the mortgage interest rate by 40 basis points this year [1] - In terms of stock selection, UBS favors companies with business model transformations, specifically China Resources Land, and those benefiting from the recovery of high-end shopping malls, such as China Resources Mixc Life, both receiving "buy" ratings [1]

Group 1 - The overall performance of real estate companies is expected to continue bottoming out in 2025, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. Among typical real estate companies, 24% reported year-on-year growth, with 12 companies showing growth rates exceeding 30% [1] - The confidence and expectations of homebuyers are still in the process of recovery, prompting real estate companies to focus on improving their internal capabilities and product quality [1] - Recent meetings held by various ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, have outlined key work for 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality industrial development, and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments, such as the announcement from the Ministry of Finance regarding the value-added tax on personal housing sales and changes to purchase and loan restrictions in Beijing, are expected to enhance market activity [2] - The real estate market fundamentals remain weak, but there are small, positive developments in policy, necessitating ongoing observation of the interaction between policy and fundamentals. Short to medium-term patience is advised for the real estate development sector, with a focus on core assets in commercial real estate [2] - Recommendations include real estate stocks with "good credit, good city, good product," companies that manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments, local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, and property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages [2] Group 3 - Relevant companies in the real estate industry chain listed on the Hong Kong stock market include Sunac China (01918), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081), Longfor Group (00960), Vanke (02202), China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Overseas Development (00688), and Jianfa International (01908) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The new housing value-added tax policy, effective from January 1, 2026, aims to lower transaction costs by reducing the tax rate from 5% to 3% for properties held for less than two years, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of second-hand housing transactions and stabilize the real estate market [1][2][3]. - The policy reflects the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and is anticipated to create opportunities for capable real estate companies by improving the demand-side replacement chain and optimizing supply-side quality [1][4]. Summary by Sections Tax Rate and Policy Adjustments - The new policy significantly reduces the short-term holding tax rate from 5% to 3%, representing a 40% decrease in transaction costs. For a property priced at 1 million (excluding tax), the tax burden decreases from 53,000 to 31,000 [2]. - The policy eliminates regional differences in tax exemptions, standardizing the exemption period to two years nationwide [2]. Market Dynamics and Demand - The adjustment primarily targets properties held for less than two years, which currently have low transaction willingness due to self-use demand. However, the policy is seen as a signal to stabilize demand and relax restrictions on short-term transactions [3]. - The report notes a shift in the market from new housing to second-hand housing, with a 5% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while new housing transactions have decreased by 4% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several real estate companies based on their creditworthiness, product quality, and operational capabilities. Key recommendations include: - Companies with strong credit and product quality such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group [5][9]. - Companies with robust cash flow management during market adjustments like New City Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Link REIT [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life [5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies, including the new VAT policy and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's meeting, align with the central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market, aiming to enhance market stability and reshape competitive dynamics in the industry [1] Group 1: Policy Implications - The new VAT policy and related government meetings are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the real estate market as outlined in the Central Economic Work Conference [1] - The unblocking of transaction chains is expected to create momentum for market stability [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investments include real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products" [1] - Companies that can maintain cash flow through operational capabilities during market adjustments are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms are expected to benefit from the recovery of the Hong Kong market [1] - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages are also recommended for investment [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel products have limited contradictions, and steel prices will fluctuate in the short term. The profitability of steel mills has improved, iron - water production has slightly increased, and the production of rebar has continued to rise. However, demand is weak in the off - season. The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded, but its sustainability is questionable, and exports are expected to face pressure. The inventory of steel products is being depleted, but there is still pressure on hot - rolled coil inventory. [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production and Supply - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace operating rate is 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The electric furnace operating rate is 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. [5] - **Output**: The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills is 184.39 million tons (+2.71), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 293.54 million tons (+1.63). The iron - water output is 2.2658 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons. [5] 3.2 Demand - **Rebar**: The demand for rebar is seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 202.68 million tons (-5.96). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 9.49 million tons. [5][49] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 307.04 million tons (+8.76). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 3.05 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled output was 86.48 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39 million tons. [5][53] 3.3 Inventory - **Rebar**: The total inventory of rebar is 434.25 million tons (-18.29), the social inventory is 294.19 million tons (-18.81), and the steel mill inventory is 140.06 million tons (+0.52). [5] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 377.22 million tons (-13.5), the social inventory is 296.7 million tons (-10.6), and the steel mill inventory is 80.52 million tons (-2.9). The inventory decline has increased, but it is still at a high level. [5] - **Overall**: The inventory of major steel products is being depleted. As of December 26, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.35 million tons, and the inventory of major steel products is 8.7279 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.9 million tons. [56] 3.4 Price - **Spot Price**: As of December 26, the average price of rebar in major national cities is 3316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the average price of hot - rolled coils in the country is 3288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. [9] - **Basis**: The basis has shrunk. The basis of the rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton (-9), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton (-14). [5] 3.5 Other Market Information - **Steel Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. [66] - **Automobile Market**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons. [70] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started area of houses was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed area of houses was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales amount of commercial housing was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 11.9%. [73]