投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究 |（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-03-04 美元指数⾛强，铂钯承压回落 2026年3⽉3⽇收盘，⼴州期货交易所铂⾦主⼒合约下跌8.44%，报 570.30元/克；钯⾦主⼒合约下跌6.16%，报433.90元/克。 铂观点：美元指数走强，铂价承压回落 主要逻辑：美伊局势持续扰动贵金属市场。当前霍尔木兹海峡局势紧张， 导致全球能源运输成本大幅抬升，国际油价出现大涨。若霍尔木兹海峡封 锁时间延长，油价继续快速上升，或引发全球通胀、美联储降息延后及经 济衰退风险加大。短期避险情绪对贵金属的提振作用边际趋弱，市场转而 交易降息预期推迟，导致美元指数走强，铂价出现明显回调，建议对美伊 局势保持密切关注。中长期来看，特朗普造成的美联储独立性受损和全球 政治经济秩序松动，将促使美元指数长期走弱，利于铂价弹性释放，但美 伊地缘冲突的持续时间及烈度也对美元和铂价施加了额外影响。 展望：震荡偏强。基本面韧性叠加美元信用走弱，中长期维持价格震荡偏 强预期。 钯观点：市场情绪转弱，钯价跟随铂价下跌 主要逻辑：当前钯金供应端不确定性持续：根据中国贸易救济信息网，2 月10日，美 ...

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Monday that the next credit cycle will be “worse than a normal one” due to widespread complacency among lenders.Speaking at JPMorgan’s Global Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami Beach, Dimon said individuals and corporations are in good shape, but governments “have far more debt than they’ve ever had before.”“Asset prices are very high. Credit spreads are very low,” he said. “I don’t think a lot of people have seen a credit cycle. Not everyone who makes loans is ...

本周五美国经济分析局公布的最新数据显示，2025 年年末，美国经济急剧降温，GDP年化季环比增长 率初值降至1.4%。这主要是由于关税政策以及长达数周的政府停摆削弱了其先前的增长势头。 根据最新数据，去年全年，美国经济总体增长了2.2%，低于前一年的 2.8%。与此同时，即便在特朗普 关税影响下，美国去年的进口额依旧增加，贸易逆差扩大的情况仍在持续。 同时，美国联邦财政支出也有所下降，部分原因是去年10月开始的、持续43天的史上最长政府停摆事 件。 不过，这些削减在很大程度上被美国家庭的强劲支出所抵消，尽管关税和工资增长疲弱削弱了美国居民 的财务状况，但他们仍热衷于消费。 "经济状况看起来还算稳健，但仔细观察就会发现，实际情况却相当不稳定。"威尔明顿信托公司的首席 经济学家卢克·蒂利（Luke Tilley）如是说，他估计美国未来出现经济衰退的可能性约为 45%，"当我们 看到就业增长极其缓慢、消费者在信用卡、房贷和汽车贷款方面出现违约现象时，就能看出经济形势已 经变得相当疲软。" 经济的这些复杂信号使美联储在未来的道路上面临更多困难。去年，美联储已三次降低借贷成本，但目 前仍暂停进一步降息，直到能更准确地把 ...

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on February 19, with an opening price of $4998.09 per ounce, a high of $5022.21, a low of $4960.62, and a closing price of $5013.83 [1] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, exceeding economists' expectations of 225,000, indicating a stabilization in the labor market [3] - Continuing claims rose to 1.87 million, the highest level since early January, suggesting some underlying weakness in the labor market despite the drop in initial claims [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that most policymakers see signs of stabilization in the labor market, although concerns about downside risks remain [3] - The probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is estimated at 20%-25%, down from 30% in September [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump indicated that a decision on a potential agreement with Iran could be made in about ten days, emphasizing that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons for peace in the Middle East [5] - Reports suggest Trump is considering limited military strikes against Iran to compel compliance with nuclear agreement terms, with discussions shifting towards larger-scale actions [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.14 tons to a total of 1078.75 tons [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 5.9%, with a 94.1% chance of maintaining current rates [7] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 49.8% [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with short-term indicators suggesting a gradual upward crossover [11] - The trading strategy includes cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for aggressive and conservative traders [11]

然而，这一政策并非没有显而易见的副作用。对于许多抗风险能力较弱的美国企业和个人来说，额外的 利息负担很可能成为压垮他们的最后一根稻草。即使这些企业不至于破产，它们的盈利能力也无疑会受 到严重影响。如果大量企业倒闭，生产体系的崩溃将使得美国经济陷入更加深重的危机之中。加息，虽 然旨在遏制通胀，却有可能成为经济深陷泥潭的催化剂。 实际上，美国联邦储备委员会在很早之前就 已经预告了加息的计划，但导致市场剧烈反应的并非加息本身，而是加息幅度的超预期。此前，美国社 会普遍预测此次加息幅度最多为50个基点，而美联储最终宣布了75个基点的加息幅度，远远超出了市场 的预期。这一差距让市场感到震惊，市场信心也因此受到极大冲击。 根据观察者网的报道，6月15日，美国联邦储备委员会正式宣布将基准利率上调75个基点，目的是应对 美国当前严峻的通货膨胀问题。加息政策的效果并不单一、简单，但我们可以通过一个直观的标准来理 解它。通俗来说，降息就像印钱和大放水，而加息则是收钱和大缩水。 从根本上讲，美联储通过提高 贷款利息的标准，迫使所有美国企业和个人在借款后偿还时支付更多的利息。这些额外的利息将通过银 行回流美国政府。随着市场上的美元减 ...

Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the monetary policy meeting on January 28, with a focus on potential adjustments to economic growth forecasts amid a complex trade environment [1] - The Canadian economy heavily relies on manufacturing, high-tech industries, and services, supported by natural resources, with steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors being critical [3] Steel and Aluminum Industry - Canada's steel and aluminum industry faces significant challenges, with over $12 billion in annual exports to the U.S., where more than 40% of revenue is dependent on the U.S. market [4] - U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are set to increase from 25% to 50% by 2025, severely impacting export competitiveness and leading to a reduction in orders and idle machinery [4] - The automotive industry, which relies on steel and aluminum, is also experiencing a slowdown, with annual production nearly halving compared to a decade ago [4] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector's decline is exacerbated by high tariffs, which are expected to reduce the share of U.S. imports from Canada from nearly 50% to one-third by 2025 [6] - High interest rates are dampening consumer enthusiasm for vehicle purchases, contributing to a shrinking automotive market [4] Economic Impact and Consumer Sentiment - The decline in manufacturing is expected to negatively affect related sectors such as mining, logistics, and technology services, ultimately lowering national economic growth [6] - Canadian consumer prices are projected to rise, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to exceed the 2% target, reaching 2.6% by February 2025 [7] - Consumer spending has shown a decline, with a notable drop in September and October 2025, despite a slight rebound in November [7] Employment Market Dynamics - A survey indicates that the percentage of Canadians expecting an economic recession within a year has increased from 15% to 32%, with 66.5% of consumers expressing pessimism [9] - The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in December 2025, the highest in over two years, with a record number of job seekers entering the market without a corresponding increase in job creation [9] - The job market shows a dichotomy, with growth in sectors like healthcare and education, while manufacturing and construction, particularly in steel, aluminum, and automotive, face significant job losses [9][10] Steel Industry Export Decline - Canadian steel exports to the U.S. are projected to plummet by 36.6% year-on-year by October 2025, leading to reduced hiring and investment in the sector [10] - The cycle of external shocks leading to low employment and subsequent consumer spending decline is creating a negative feedback loop for the economy [10]

Let's start with a very recent chart with the latest recession. We've used February 3, 2020 for our start date (this is the official NBER recession start). Eight of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through February 9, 2026. Japan's Nikkei 225 is in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 12.0%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a year-to-date gain of 5.5% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year-to-date gain of 4.6%. On the opposite end, India's BSE S ...

Group 1 - In January 2023, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 108,000, a year-on-year increase of 118%, marking the highest level for the same month since the severe economic recession in 2009 [2] - Major companies affected by the layoffs include Amazon, which plans to cut 16,000 jobs, and UPS, which announced layoffs of up to 30,000 employees [2] - The primary reasons for these layoffs include contract losses and poor economic conditions, indicating a lack of optimism among employers regarding the economic outlook for 2026 [2] Group 2 - A recent survey by the Pew Research Center indicates that 72% of Americans view the current economic situation as "fair" or "poor," with 38% fearing that the economic situation will worsen in the next year [3] - 52% of respondents believe that the current U.S. government's policies have led to a deterioration of the economic situation, and 60% disapprove of the government's tariff policies [3] - Commentary from German media suggests that the U.S. government's tariff policies are pushing the global economy towards recession, highlighting a perceived lack of capability to maintain prosperity and peace [3]

板块方面，大消费板块涨幅靠前。其中，思摩尔国际 6969.HK 涨 8.99%，名创 优品 9896.HK 涨 6.18%，毛戈平 1318.HK 涨 5.29%，达势股份 1405.HK 涨 5.21%， 周黑鸭 1458.HK 涨 4.46%，古茗 1364.HK 涨 3.86%，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）涨 2.9%，青岛啤酒股份 168.HK 涨 2.82%，茶百道 2555.HK 涨 1.75%。商务部等多 部门印发《2026「乐购新春」春节特别活动方案》，鼓励各地增加春节期间消费 品以旧换新补贴数量，加大线下实体零售支持力度，在一定程度上提振了市场 信心。 港股晨报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：热门交易全面退潮，裁员潮引发衰 退担忧 昨日，港股三大指数集体录得上涨。其中，恒生指数涨 0.14%，国企指数涨 0.5%， 恒生科技指数涨 0.74%。大市成交金额 3,151.12 亿元，主板总卖空金额 650.73 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 22.99%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易 净流入 249.77 亿港元。港股通 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is facing one of the most critical technical tests since the bull market began in 2024, with prices retreating to a steep trendline from September of last year and testing the 50-day moving average during a mini flash crash [1] Group 1: Market Structure and Price Levels - Gold prices need to stabilize around $4600 (with a fluctuation of $50) to maintain a constructive market structure, with the current decline attributed to excessive "fear of missing out" (FOMO) trading and lack of downside risk management [3] - The market structure remains fragile, with approximately $20 trillion in paper profits accumulated by gold holders over the past three years, while only about $1 trillion has driven the recent price increase, indicating that a mere 5% profit-taking could offset all global physical demand [5] - Citi maintains a target price of $5000 per ounce for the next 0 to 3 months but expects gold prices to decline to $4000 by 2027, a potential drop of 20% as geopolitical risks ease [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Risk Management - From a technical perspective, gold is at a critical short-term support level, with the focus on the $4600 mark; if prices fall below this, the next key observation point will be around $4250, near the 100-day moving average [6] - Market participants are facing emotional tests, with many traders hoping to break even during the recent sell-off, revealing a lack of genuine risk management frameworks [6] Group 3: Market Imbalance and Future Projections - The current gold market structure is extremely imbalanced, with the price rising from $2500 to $5100 driven primarily by investor capital allocation of about $1 trillion, while the physical gold market is too small to accommodate such large asset allocation shifts [8] - Citi forecasts that several geopolitical and economic risk factors supporting gold prices will ease by the second half of 2026, predicting a quarterly decline in gold prices from $5000 in Q1 2026 to $4200 by Q4 2026, with an average price of $4600 for the year [8] - In scenario analysis, Citi estimates a 60% probability that gold prices will fall to $4000 by 2027, with a bullish scenario reaching $6000 (20% probability) and a bearish scenario potentially dropping to $3000 (20% probability) [8]