2025 年 07 月 12 日 乐鑫科技 (688018) ——端侧 AIoT 领军，业绩高增下经营杠杆效应显著 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 154.33 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 290.00/88.33 | | 市净率 | 10.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.39 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 24,184 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,510.18/10,696.10 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 20.04 | | 资产负债率% | 23.09 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 157/157 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-11 08-11 09-11 10-11 11-11 12-11 01-11 02-11 03-11 04-11 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity of understanding bank profitability, highlighting that traditional metrics like interest margin, cost of expenses, and asset impairment losses do not provide a complete picture of a bank's true earning capacity [4][20][22]. Group 1: Understanding Bank Profitability - The profitability of banks cannot be solely determined by analyzing interest margins and impairment losses, as these metrics do not allow for effective peer comparison [4][22]. - For example, Bank A with a 2.5% interest margin and Bank B with a 2% interest margin can both achieve the same net profit of 1%, indicating that higher interest margins do not necessarily equate to better profitability [5][6][7]. - The article discusses the importance of understanding the underlying business model and risk management strategies of banks, particularly in the context of small and micro loans [14][18][19]. Group 2: Risk and Business Models - The article presents a case where high-interest loans can be associated with low risk, particularly in regions with strong micro-enterprise demand, suggesting that local knowledge can mitigate risks [11][13]. - It argues that small banks are better positioned to manage small and micro loans due to their flexibility and closer ties to local businesses [18][19]. - The discussion includes the notion that a bank's risk profile cannot be judged solely on its loan portfolio size or interest margins; rather, it requires a deeper analysis of the specific business practices and regional economic conditions [60][66]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The article introduces the concept of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) as critical metrics for evaluating bank performance, with ROA being influenced by interest margin, cost of expenses, and impairment losses [25][31][48]. - A comparison of two banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Hangzhou Bank, reveals that despite ICBC having a larger asset base, Hangzhou Bank demonstrates a higher ROA and ROE due to its effective use of leverage [34][48][55]. - The article concludes that Hangzhou Bank's higher valuation should be reflected in its price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to ICBC, suggesting that current market valuations may not accurately represent the banks' underlying performance [76][78].

Summary of SF Express City Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SF Express City - **Industry**: New Consumption and Delivery Services Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - SF Express City benefits from the rise of the new consumption delivery market and the significant growth in order volume from SF Holdings, leading to rapid order growth through deep collaborations with key accounts (KA) such as Lucky, Sam's Club, and Starbucks [2][4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company has revised its related party transaction limits with SF Holdings, increasing the limits to 12.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 20.6 billion yuan for 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 101% and 60% respectively [3] - The expected profit contribution from the increased transaction limits is approximately 100 million yuan in 2025 and 200-300 million yuan in 2026, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 350 million yuan for 2025 and 670 million yuan for 2026 [3][4] Growth Drivers - SF Express City is experiencing dual growth engines: the rise of new consumption delivery and the increase in order volume from SF Holdings [4] - Collaborations with major KA clients lead to rapid order increases and a focus on building private traffic, positioning SF Express City as an independent delivery platform [4] Operational Strategy - The company employs a hybrid model of stationed and crowdsourced delivery to balance service quality and operational flexibility, enhancing execution rates in traditional markets while penetrating the internet market [6] - The stationed model ensures service quality, while the crowdsourced model provides ample supply during peak demand [6] Profitability and Cost Structure - SF Express City has seen a continuous improvement in gross margin over the past seven years, with further potential for enhancement due to economies of scale, improved capacity utilization, and better negotiation power [8][9] - The company operates with high operating leverage, where increased revenue leads to a decrease in management expense ratio, thus improving net profit margins [9] Investment Recommendation - The company is recommended for investment due to its strong growth prospects driven by the new consumption delivery market and high order volumes, deep partnerships with KA clients, and effective market expansion strategies [10]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 公司 1Q2025 营收同比增长 18.9% ，期内利润同比下降 28.9% 5 月 23 日 , 公司公布 2025 年一季报： 1Q2025 公司实现营业收入 44.27 亿元，同比增长 18.9% ，实现期内利 润 4.17 亿元，同比下降 28.9% ，如果剔除股票挂钩证券发行开支及收购永辉超市股份的银行贷款相关利息开 支则期内利润为 5.62 亿元；实现经调整净利润 5.87 亿元，同比下降 4.8% 。 公司 1Q2025 综合毛利率同比上升 0.8pct ， MINISO 品牌收入同比提升 16.5% 1Q2025 公司综合毛利率为 44.2% ，同比上升 0.8 个百分点。公司毛利率同比增长主要由于： 1 ） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.00 [8][9] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 70.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, exceeding the forecast of 69.17 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit was 3.63 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 2.59 billion RMB, driven by the gradual recognition of deferred revenue from "Three Strategies" and stable growth in advertising revenue [1][2][4] - User engagement has significantly increased, with daily average usage time reaching a historical high of 108 minutes and daily active users (DAU) at 107 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The number of official members grew by 12% to 264 million [2][3] - The gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 17.31 billion RMB, a 76.1% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. The company anticipates continued high growth in H1 2025, supported by upcoming events and new game releases [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 36.3% in Q1 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to high growth in gaming and advertising businesses. The operating profit for Q1 2025 was 3.42 billion RMB, exceeding the forecast of 2.2 billion RMB [4][5] - The report projects revenues of 305.7 billion RMB, 336.1 billion RMB, and 363.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.99 billion RMB, 26 billion RMB, and 31.83 billion RMB for the same years [5][15] User Engagement and Advertising - The platform's user engagement metrics improved significantly, with a notable increase in the number of creators with over one million followers, growing by 20%. Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 19.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [2][3] - The company expects advertising revenue for 2025 to reach 97.67 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [2][5] Valuation and Market Position - The company employs a segment-based price-to-sales (PS) valuation method, resulting in a target market value of 101.28 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of $33.00, based on a PS ratio of 3.3x for 2025 [5][15]

网易于北京时间 5 月 15 日港股盘后发布了 2025 年一季度财报，又是一次保守预期下的超预期。除了游戏表现，最让海豚君惊讶的就是 内部组织整改后，费用端 的极致压缩 。 这并不是一次性的波动，虽然管理层提及短期受业务调整影响，后续会逐步恢复至历史常规水平，但我们认为，从经营效率角度，仍然具备改善的持续性。这将 直接促成，在手游 pipeline 平淡期，哪怕收入前景或有波动，至少在今年，可以支撑网易实现全年盈利双位数增长的穿越周期能力。 而从腾讯 + 网易的一季度报显示出的共性，海豚君可以得到两条真理和教训：1 ）游戏是真赚钱，一旦跑出，变现效率的提升空间非常可观。2）永远别低估长青 游戏的 "翻新价值 "。 具体来看： 考虑到游戏毛利率环比提高而非受暴雪高分成而下降，因此造成预期差的来源，主要是 自研端游以及手游。 其中，自研端游不用多说，最大功臣是《燕云》。自 12 月上线 36 天内，端游拿下超 4 亿流水。手游一季度下滑 4%，低于市场预期的手游下滑 8%，呈现逐步修 复的状态（Q4 同比下滑 11%）。 这其实值得深究，毕竟一季度手游只有《燕云》这个新游，并且蛋仔、逆水寒还是超高基数。从 Se ...

证券研究报告 1Q25 电商收入同增 28.3%至 35.2 亿美元,咯低于一致预期的同增 30.3%。 板块经调整 EBITDA 为 2.6 亿美元,对应经调整 EBITDA 利润率 7.5%，同 比改善 8.3pp,管理层表示利润改善主因规模扩张、成本优化和变现率提升。 1Q25 电商订单量与 GMV 分别同增 19%/22%,管理层表示正持续提升对卖 家的服务质量以推动更多商家使用广告工具,1Q25 参与投放卖家数量和平 均广告支出分别同增 22%/28%,并维持全年电商 GMV 增长 20%的指引。 电子支付:贷款规模实现快速增长,品牌更名以体现与电商协同性 1Q25 电子支付收入同增 57.6%至 7.9 亿美元,优于一致预期的同增 51.3%。 板块经调整 EBITDA 2.4 亿美元，同比+62.4%，对应经调整 EBITDA 利润 率 30.7%。1Q25末，Monee 贷款余额约 58 亿美元（4Q24:51 亿美元), 不良贷款占比约为 1.1%,环比咯有下降。管理层宣布将品牌名从 SeaMoney 更改为 Monee,以体现与 Shopee 的协同联系,我们期待该业务继续发挥 与电商的协 ...

1Q25 SEA 收入为 48.4 亿美元，同增 29.6%，略低于 VA（Visible Alpha） 一致预期（口径下同）的同增 31.2%，我们认为主因游戏递延收入较多和电 商收入略低于预期。经调整 EBITDA 9.5 亿美元，好于一致预期的 7.0 亿美 元。管理层维持 2025 年电商 GMV 增长 20%的指引，并表示游戏板块 2025 年活跃用户数和预定量有望实现双位数增长。建议关注规模效应逐渐显现后 的利润持续改善趋势。"增持"。 证券研究报告 SEA (SE US) 利润好于预期，电商规模效应显现 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 15 日│美国 | 互联网 | 电商：业务规模扩张推动利润率改善明显，广告工具渗透稳步提升 1Q25 电商收入同增 28.3%至 35.2 亿美元，略低于一致预期的同增 30.3%。 板块经调整 EBITDA 为 2.6 亿美元，对应经调整 EBITDA 利润率 7.5%，同 比改善 8.3pp，管理层表示利润改善主因规模扩张、成本优化和变现率提升。 1Q25 电商订单量 ...

以下文章来源于传媒互联网新视野 ，作者郑磊 传媒互联网新视野 . 以产业视角观察传媒互联网行业，提供前沿、及时、深度的报告和点评。 文章转自2025年3月16日太平洋传媒团队报告，分析师：郑磊；联系人：李林卉 投资要点 内容、用户、全球化是中美流媒体行业的差异所在 中美长视频流媒体龙头爱奇艺和奈飞的营收差距为10倍，利润差距为80倍，市值则相差180倍。我们认为，流媒体的"南橘北枳"反映的是中美两国行业层面的差 异。具体来看：1）内容：美国影视行业由于创作题材自由度较高，且长期积累的工业化制作体系成熟，因此能更好地支持优质内容持续供给。2）用户：美国消 费者对于内容付费的接受度高，且更偏好长视频等深度娱乐方式，使得长视频在美国的生存土壤相较于世界其他区域更加"肥沃"。3）全球化：凭借美国文化输 出的深厚积淀以及英语语言优势，美国流媒体公司能够突破国内单一市场规模限制，打开海外市场。 奈飞：凭借优质内容撬动全球市场的流媒体龙头 奈飞成立于1997年，以DVD线上租赁业务起家，后转型至在线流媒体订阅业务，并通过自制内容探索、全球化扩张、订阅体系变革不断优化业务发展，逐步成为 全球领先的流媒体播放平台。凭借丰富多元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]