#报告 #图表 摩根士丹利：值得关注的8份市场图表。（涉及美国散户情绪调查、美股/全球股票策略、AI驱动的美国/欧洲能源需求、美国制造业回流观察） https://t.co/70N2Sl5AJzNone (@None):None ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. manufacturing sector's attempts to return to domestic production have not yielded significant improvements, with the manufacturing GDP share declining from 12% in 2009 to 10.3% in 2022, and projected to remain around 10% by 2025 [2][4][21] Group 1: U.S. Manufacturing Policies - The U.S. government has invested heavily in manufacturing revival, with initiatives like the $23 billion infrastructure investment and $390 billion for chips during the Obama administration, followed by tax cuts and tariffs under Trump, and further subsidies under Biden [2][4] - Despite these efforts, the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has not significantly improved, indicating a slow recovery [2][12] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment in manufacturing has dropped from 24.5% in 1970 to 8.5% currently, with new job creation primarily in the service sector [4][12] - Reports indicate that while over $3 trillion in investment has been announced, job creation has been modest, with Boeing facing significant operational challenges [4][12] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Impact - The U.S. strategy to reduce reliance on overseas manufacturing, particularly from China, has disrupted global supply chains, leading countries like Japan and South Korea to attempt similar moves, which resulted in increased costs and delays [6][10] - Japan's manufacturing costs rose by 30% due to supply chain disruptions, while South Korea's profits fell by 15% as they struggled with a lack of skilled labor and components from China [6][10] Group 4: Lessons from Japan and South Korea - Japan and South Korea's experiences highlight the challenges of relocating manufacturing back home, including rising costs and labor shortages, leading some companies to reconsider their decisions and move production back to China [8][10] - The aging workforce and low birth rates in these countries exacerbate the labor shortage, impacting their manufacturing capabilities [8][10] Group 5: China's Response - In response to U.S. tariffs and the manufacturing shift, China is focusing on high-tech industries, with projections indicating that by 2025, it will produce 60% of the world's electric vehicle batteries and increase its self-sufficiency in chips [10][12][17] - China's strategy includes investing in high-tech sectors and enhancing its workforce's skills to remain competitive globally [12][17] Group 6: Future Outlook - The U.S. manufacturing revival is slow, with significant challenges remaining, while China is leveraging the situation to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities [21] - The global manufacturing landscape is shifting, with Southeast Asia gaining an advantage as companies reassess their supply chains in light of U.S. policies [21]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing push to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. is being driven by government policies aimed at reducing reliance on overseas supply chains, with significant commitments from companies like Stellantis and JPMorgan to invest in domestic manufacturing [1][3]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The U.S. government is promoting a "Made in America" strategy, particularly in key sectors like automotive, semiconductors, and critical metals, to revitalize domestic manufacturing [1]. - Stellantis has pledged to invest $13 billion, while JPMorgan has announced a $1.5 trillion initiative, indicating a strong commitment to transforming the U.S. into a manufacturing powerhouse [3]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Companies - Companies face significant obstacles when attempting to relocate manufacturing back to the U.S., including high tariffs on imported components, which increase production costs [8][10]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing job losses, with 12,000 jobs cut in August 2025 alone, highlighting the difficulties in achieving a successful manufacturing rebound [11]. - There is a shortage of skilled labor, with over 400,000 manufacturing jobs unfilled, particularly in high-tech fields like semiconductors and robotics [13]. Group 3: Policy and Support Issues - Companies are uncertain about the stability and reliability of government support, as many promised subsidies and tax incentives have been retracted or delayed, leading to hesitance in making long-term investments [15]. - The lack of a clear path for implementing manufacturing return strategies, along with insufficient supportive policies, hampers the ability of companies to effectively plan and execute their projects [17]. Group 4: Overall Outlook - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. is contingent upon resolving issues related to labor availability, cost management, and stable policy support, as current conditions leave many companies in a state of uncertainty [19].

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran has emerged as a distinctive voice in economic policy, challenging traditional economic theories and practices, particularly in monetary policy, through his roles at the Federal Reserve and the White House Council of Economic Advisers [1][3]. Group 1: Career Background - Miran's unconventional career path includes a transition from biochemistry at Boston University to deep economic thought, reflecting a unique mindset [3]. - He served as a senior advisor at the Treasury during the Trump administration, contributing to significant economic policies like the CARES Act [3]. - After leaving the corporate sector, he joined the Manhattan Institute, focusing on topics such as the return of U.S. manufacturing and global trade restructuring, becoming a key advisor in Trump's economic policy [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - At the September 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, Miran proposed a 50 basis point interest rate cut, contrasting with the 25 basis point cut supported by other members [4]. - He argues that the current tight monetary policy is hindering economic recovery, advocating for a federal funds rate closer to 2% instead of the current level [4]. - Miran's stance reflects a deep understanding of the U.S. economic situation, emphasizing that high interest rates are suppressing economic growth and credit market activity [4]. Group 3: Industrial Policy - Miran advocates for gradually increasing tariffs and lowering the dollar's exchange rate to promote the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and reduce trade deficits [4]. - He believes that the U.S. has a unique advantage in the global trade system, and tariff policies can effectively adjust trade structures and optimize economic layouts [4]. - Despite criticism from some economists, this approach has gained traction as a mainstream economic policy under the Trump administration [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Reform - Miran's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve challenge existing governance structures, which he believes are too closed and lead to "groupthink" [4]. - Suggested reforms include allowing the President to dismiss the Fed Chair and board members at any time, shortening board terms, and increasing legislative oversight of the Fed's budget [4]. - While some scholars criticize these proposals for potentially undermining the Fed's independence, they reflect Miran's desire for a more flexible and responsive decision-making process to address complex economic challenges [4]. Group 5: Controversy and Criticism - Miran's views have not been universally accepted, facing strong opposition from economists like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who critiques his tariff and monetary policies [5]. - Krugman argues that Miran's policy framework is controversial and may not succeed in practice [5]. - Nonetheless, Miran's perspectives provide a new lens on U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding the balance between globalization and domestic economic interests, challenging traditional free trade notions [5].

对此，一位有出口业务的国内工业机器人企业的董事长向第一财经记者回应称，该调查对其在海外业务 影响不大。他表示，关税压力下，工业机器人服务的部分下游领域，比如光伏、锂电、3C等行业可能 面临更多压力。"美国制造业回流将会是一个漫长的过程。"该人士表示，近年来，公司出口美国的产品 大多来自于该公司位于海外的子公司，"我们在多年前就已经展开海外市场的布局，包括通过收购一些 海外本土市场的公司来做业务调整，因此影响不大"。 微信编辑| 格蕾丝 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。专 用邮箱：bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 作者 |第一财经 乔心怡 截至今日午间收盘，机器人指数（884126）微跌0.01%。 当地时间9月24日，根据美国商务部工业和安全局官网上的两则联邦公报，美国商务部正依据《贸易扩 展法》第232条款，在9月2日启动了对进口机器人和工业机械以及对进口医疗设备等的232调查。根据该 法律，总统对被认定危及国家安全的商品有权加征关税，商务部需在270天内提交政策建议。 2025.09.25 本文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated a Section 232 investigation into the import of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, which may lead to tariffs on products deemed a threat to national security [3]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The robot index (884126) experienced a slight decline of 0.01% as of the midday close on September 25 [3]. - A chairman of a domestic industrial robot company indicated that the investigation would have minimal impact on their overseas business, as most exports to the U.S. come from their overseas subsidiaries [3]. - The chairman noted that downstream sectors served by industrial robots, such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and 3C industries, may face increased pressure due to tariff implications [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The chairman expressed that the process of U.S. manufacturing returning will be lengthy, suggesting a gradual shift rather than an immediate change [3]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in overseas markets for years, including acquisitions of local firms, which mitigates the potential impact of the investigation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated a Section 232 investigation into imports of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, which could lead to tariffs if deemed a national security threat [1]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The robot index (884126) experienced a slight decline of 0.01% as of midday closing [1]. - A domestic industrial robot company's chairman stated that the investigation would have minimal impact on their overseas business, as most products exported to the U.S. come from their overseas subsidiaries [1]. - The chairman noted that downstream sectors served by industrial robots, such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and 3C industries, may face increased pressure due to tariff implications [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The chairman emphasized that the process of U.S. manufacturing returning will be lengthy, indicating a cautious outlook on the potential changes in trade dynamics [1]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in overseas markets through acquisitions and adjustments, which mitigates the potential impact of the investigation [1].

Core Viewpoint - The investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce into imports of robots and industrial machinery, as well as medical devices, is not expected to significantly impact the overseas business of a domestic industrial robot company, according to its chairman [1]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a Section 232 investigation on September 2 regarding imports of robots and industrial machinery, as well as medical devices [1]. - Under the Trade Expansion Act, the President has the authority to impose tariffs on goods deemed a threat to national security, with the Department of Commerce required to submit policy recommendations within 270 days [1]. Group 2: Company Response - The chairman of the domestic industrial robot company stated that the investigation will have minimal impact on their overseas operations [1]. - He noted that certain downstream sectors served by industrial robots, such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and 3C industries, may face increased pressure due to tariff implications [1]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in overseas markets for years, including acquisitions of local firms, which mitigates the potential impact of the investigation [1].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium Americas' stock surged by 98.7% to $6.10 following news of potential government investment in the company, aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing [1][4]. Group 1: Government Investment - The U.S. government is negotiating to acquire a stake in Lithium Americas as part of a broader strategy to support domestic supply chains for critical minerals [3][6]. - The proposed government stake could be as high as 10%, and this move is part of a renegotiation of a $2.3 billion loan program initiated during the Biden administration [3][6]. - The investment aligns with the goals of the CHIPS and Science Act, which has already injected over $200 billion into the semiconductor industry since its enactment in 2022 [6]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Lithium Supply - The Thacker Pass mine in Nevada is considered a cornerstone for establishing a domestic lithium supply chain for electric vehicle batteries, reducing reliance on Chinese lithium refining [6]. - The U.S. government’s interest in lithium mining is part of a larger trend of investing in key industries, including defense, with potential future investments in companies like Lockheed Martin [7][8]. Group 3: Historical Context - Government equity stakes have occurred in exceptional circumstances, such as during the 2008 financial crisis when the government acquired significant shares in major automotive and financial institutions [7]. - Recent government actions include substantial investments in companies like Intel, positioning the government as a major stakeholder in critical sectors [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is negotiating with Lithium Americas Corp (LAC.US) to restructure a $2.3 billion Department of Energy loan, which could benefit miners and project developers [1] - Lithium Americas saw a significant stock increase of 71.50%, reaching $5.27, following reports of the negotiations [1] - The lithium industry has faced turmoil due to extensive supply disruptions in China, but recent news of early restarts at major Chinese mines has brought some optimism [1] Group 2 - The Thacker Pass lithium project, valued at approximately $3 billion, was approved at the end of Trump's first term, with the loan being allocated by the Biden administration last year [1] - General Motors invested $625 million in the Thacker Pass project last year, acquiring a 38% stake and rights to purchase lithium output, but is now being asked by Trump administration officials for purchase guarantees [2] - The potential equity stake by the Trump administration is part of a broader initiative to strengthen domestic manufacturing and attract more capital into the U.S. [2]