Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises are embracing a new global upcycle in the excavator market, with overseas excavator sales recovering from -15% in January 2025 to +14% in October 2025, indicating a synchronized global demand recovery [1] Group 1: Market Insights - Japan's construction machinery demand remains resilient despite a significant drop in downstream demand post-bubble economy, with excavator ownership only declining by 30% [2] - In Japan, domestic sales are decoupling from real estate, leading to a stable sales volume, with a shift towards rental and second-hand export models [2] - China's excavator operating hours are still at a high level, providing a buffer for demand, supported by replacement needs and decoupling from real estate [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. market faces a long-term shortage of excavator ownership, with stock replacement driving demand, supported by both residential and non-residential investments [3] - Future growth drivers include structural support from AI data center infrastructure, the return of U.S. manufacturing boosting large-scale infrastructure growth, and potential stimulation of the housing market following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Historical insights from Komatsu's entry into the U.S. market highlight the importance of macro factors, quality, company culture, and localization in overcoming market barriers [3] - Chinese manufacturers are positioned to capitalize on the shift of U.S. construction machinery from premium brands to more general industrial products, leveraging their supply chain advantages and manufacturing efficiency [3] Group 3: Asia, Africa, and Latin America Market - The Asia, Africa, and Latin America markets are primarily driven by mining and energy sectors, with Chinese brands capturing over 40% of the excavator market share in these regions by 2023 [4] - China's infrastructure investment is effectively replacing energy imports from these regions, indicating a strategic link between excavator exports and infrastructure development [4] - The potential for new excavator markets to grow by 60% exists if the share of second-hand excavators from Europe and the U.S. in these regions decreases from 50% to 20% [4] - Chinese enterprises are transitioning from commodity exports to capital exports, establishing local manufacturing in Indonesia to enhance market share and create new pathways into developed countries [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry (600031), XCMG Machinery (000425), Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), LiuGong Machinery (000528), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100) [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the global excavator market is entering a new upward cycle, with overseas excavator sales recovering from -15% in January 2025 to +14% in October 2025. The recovery point of the cycle has arrived, with major growth regions including the US, Western Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific experiencing acceleration in demand [18][20]. - Chinese companies have successfully established a presence in overseas markets, with their market share in Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Russian-speaking regions exceeding 30% by 2024, and over 5% in Europe and North America [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of tailored strategies for different markets, highlighting Japan, the US, and Asia-Pacific as key areas for in-depth analysis [20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The global excavator market is experiencing a new upward cycle, with significant recovery in sales and demand across various regions [18]. Long-Cycle Perspective on Global Market Differences - Mature markets show relatively stable demand, while emerging markets exhibit greater volatility. The global earthmoving machinery sales have increased from 450,000 units in 2000 to an estimated 1,170,000 units in 2024 [25]. - The report categorizes the global market into four types: emerging markets (India), semi-mature markets (China), mature markets (Europe and North America), and stock markets (Japan) [26]. Japan Market: Stock Market and Demand Growth - Japan's construction machinery market has stabilized after experiencing significant downturns, with a focus on replacement cycles rather than new demand. The report notes that even during economic downturns, the decline in excavator ownership was less severe than the drop in construction investment [60][67]. US Market: High Value and Market Barriers - The US market is characterized by long-term upward demand driven by insufficient equipment stock and ongoing investments in residential and non-residential sectors. The report discusses the potential for Chinese companies to penetrate the US market by leveraging their competitive advantages [60]. Belt and Road Initiative: Potential Market Space - The Belt and Road Initiative is identified as a key area for growth, with demand driven by mining and infrastructure projects. The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to increase their market share in these regions [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, indicating strong growth potential in the excavator market [20].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 西锐（02507）盘中涨超3%，截至发稿，股价上涨3.12%，现报54.5港元，成交额621.59万港元。 9月8日，西锐被剔除出港股通名单；11月6日，明晟公司（MSCI）公布了11月份指数审议结果，西锐获 纳入MSCI全球小盘股指数。 西部证券发布研报称，西锐资金面压力最大时点已过，明年回通信心足；业绩后手充足，G7+反响火 爆，在手订单有所恢复，销量预计全年高个位数增长，结构升级+规模效应下利润表现更好。该行指 出，公司长期受益美国制造业回流，自身α突出，成长确定性好，当前位置性价比十足，把握优质资产 错杀机会。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 责任编辑：卢昱君 客户端 西锐（02507）盘中涨超3%，截至发稿，股价上涨3.12%，现报54.5港元，成交额621.59万港元。 9月8日，西锐被剔除出港股通名单；11月6日，明晟公司（MSCI）公布了11月份指数审议结果，西锐获 纳入MSCI全球小盘股指数。 西部证券发布研报称，西锐资金面压力最大时点已过，明年回通信心足；业绩后手充足，G7+反响火 爆，在手订单有所 ...

到目前实际到位的钱，媒体算过账——不到1万亿，仅占承诺总额的11%。更别说已开工的项目还常遇工期拖延、成本超支，后续能不能成，谁也说不准。 最近特朗普政府晒出"成绩单"，称上任以来已吸引超9万亿美元投资承诺，涉及沙特、阿联酋、日韩、中国台湾等，聚焦半导体、AI、汽车等高端领域。 按这数据，美国制造业回流"指日可待"，可仔细一扒拉，这9万亿更像张"空头支票"。 专业人士早戳破了：制造业回流美国，本就是逆着全球产业链规律走。现在全球产业链已形成"成本最优、效率最高"的分布，美国建设成本高、运营成本 高，产业链还不全，想当全球制造中心？难。 沙特说投1万亿、阿联酋喊1.4万亿、台积电拍出1650亿……这些数字听着唬人，可大多是"未来时"。 阿联酋的1.4万亿是10年期承诺，到时候能有多少落实，真难说。 特朗普政府还拿这9万亿说事，说要"重振实体经济"，可实际落地的项目少之又少。制造业回流不是靠"画饼"就能成的，得看实际产能、持续投入和成本优 势。现在美国制造业空心化的问题，哪是几张支票就能解决的？ 说到底，这9万亿的承诺，更像是场"数字游戏"。美国想靠"空头支票"重振制造业，难度不小。毕竟，企业不是傻子，不会为了一 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 我们在再工业化开篇系列（一）、（二）中，聚焦美国产业回流进程，着重探讨美国在全球制造业版图中的定位，剖析其制造业"空心化"现象与供应链重 构挑战，并结合我们9月美国实地调研提供一线观察。 在本文中，我们通过宏观、微观多维数据分析当前美国基建和制造业景气度变化趋势，建议关注2026 年三条投资主线。主线一： 大型公共项目驱动，硬 基建建筑投资旺盛； 主线二： 时隔三年自动化设备周期触底回升，代表投产活动的工业设备投资指标回暖； 主线三： AI基础设施建设潮下的数据中心产 业链。 T正文ext 美国再工业化背景下，聚焦三条投资主线 在美国大型基建项目长周期建设、制造业回流、AI基建多重催化的背景下，我们建议关注2026年三条投资主线： 大型公共项目驱动，硬基建建筑投资旺盛，我们预计2026年非住宅其他领域如制造业、软基建的建筑投资也将全面回暖： 推动基建（如交通、电网）、 制造业厂房等投资， 受益环节包括工程基建EPC、工程机械、设备租赁、工业自动化及电气设备等产业链。 美国制造业回流带来再工业化需求，时隔三年自动化设备周期触底回升，代表工业生产活动的工业设备投资指 ...

Market Sentiment & Strategy - Morgan Stanley highlights 8 market charts to watch [1] - Focus on US retail investor sentiment [1] - Includes US/Global equity strategy considerations [1] AI & Energy Demand - Analysis of AI-driven US/Europe energy demand [1] Manufacturing Trends - Observation of US manufacturing reshoring [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. manufacturing sector's attempts to return to domestic production have not yielded significant improvements, with the manufacturing GDP share declining from 12% in 2009 to 10.3% in 2022, and projected to remain around 10% by 2025 [2][4][21] Group 1: U.S. Manufacturing Policies - The U.S. government has invested heavily in manufacturing revival, with initiatives like the $23 billion infrastructure investment and $390 billion for chips during the Obama administration, followed by tax cuts and tariffs under Trump, and further subsidies under Biden [2][4] - Despite these efforts, the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has not significantly improved, indicating a slow recovery [2][12] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment in manufacturing has dropped from 24.5% in 1970 to 8.5% currently, with new job creation primarily in the service sector [4][12] - Reports indicate that while over $3 trillion in investment has been announced, job creation has been modest, with Boeing facing significant operational challenges [4][12] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Impact - The U.S. strategy to reduce reliance on overseas manufacturing, particularly from China, has disrupted global supply chains, leading countries like Japan and South Korea to attempt similar moves, which resulted in increased costs and delays [6][10] - Japan's manufacturing costs rose by 30% due to supply chain disruptions, while South Korea's profits fell by 15% as they struggled with a lack of skilled labor and components from China [6][10] Group 4: Lessons from Japan and South Korea - Japan and South Korea's experiences highlight the challenges of relocating manufacturing back home, including rising costs and labor shortages, leading some companies to reconsider their decisions and move production back to China [8][10] - The aging workforce and low birth rates in these countries exacerbate the labor shortage, impacting their manufacturing capabilities [8][10] Group 5: China's Response - In response to U.S. tariffs and the manufacturing shift, China is focusing on high-tech industries, with projections indicating that by 2025, it will produce 60% of the world's electric vehicle batteries and increase its self-sufficiency in chips [10][12][17] - China's strategy includes investing in high-tech sectors and enhancing its workforce's skills to remain competitive globally [12][17] Group 6: Future Outlook - The U.S. manufacturing revival is slow, with significant challenges remaining, while China is leveraging the situation to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities [21] - The global manufacturing landscape is shifting, with Southeast Asia gaining an advantage as companies reassess their supply chains in light of U.S. policies [21]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing push to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. is being driven by government policies aimed at reducing reliance on overseas supply chains, with significant commitments from companies like Stellantis and JPMorgan to invest in domestic manufacturing [1][3]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The U.S. government is promoting a "Made in America" strategy, particularly in key sectors like automotive, semiconductors, and critical metals, to revitalize domestic manufacturing [1]. - Stellantis has pledged to invest $13 billion, while JPMorgan has announced a $1.5 trillion initiative, indicating a strong commitment to transforming the U.S. into a manufacturing powerhouse [3]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Companies - Companies face significant obstacles when attempting to relocate manufacturing back to the U.S., including high tariffs on imported components, which increase production costs [8][10]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing job losses, with 12,000 jobs cut in August 2025 alone, highlighting the difficulties in achieving a successful manufacturing rebound [11]. - There is a shortage of skilled labor, with over 400,000 manufacturing jobs unfilled, particularly in high-tech fields like semiconductors and robotics [13]. Group 3: Policy and Support Issues - Companies are uncertain about the stability and reliability of government support, as many promised subsidies and tax incentives have been retracted or delayed, leading to hesitance in making long-term investments [15]. - The lack of a clear path for implementing manufacturing return strategies, along with insufficient supportive policies, hampers the ability of companies to effectively plan and execute their projects [17]. Group 4: Overall Outlook - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. is contingent upon resolving issues related to labor availability, cost management, and stable policy support, as current conditions leave many companies in a state of uncertainty [19].

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran has emerged as a distinctive voice in economic policy, challenging traditional economic theories and practices, particularly in monetary policy, through his roles at the Federal Reserve and the White House Council of Economic Advisers [1][3]. Group 1: Career Background - Miran's unconventional career path includes a transition from biochemistry at Boston University to deep economic thought, reflecting a unique mindset [3]. - He served as a senior advisor at the Treasury during the Trump administration, contributing to significant economic policies like the CARES Act [3]. - After leaving the corporate sector, he joined the Manhattan Institute, focusing on topics such as the return of U.S. manufacturing and global trade restructuring, becoming a key advisor in Trump's economic policy [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - At the September 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, Miran proposed a 50 basis point interest rate cut, contrasting with the 25 basis point cut supported by other members [4]. - He argues that the current tight monetary policy is hindering economic recovery, advocating for a federal funds rate closer to 2% instead of the current level [4]. - Miran's stance reflects a deep understanding of the U.S. economic situation, emphasizing that high interest rates are suppressing economic growth and credit market activity [4]. Group 3: Industrial Policy - Miran advocates for gradually increasing tariffs and lowering the dollar's exchange rate to promote the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and reduce trade deficits [4]. - He believes that the U.S. has a unique advantage in the global trade system, and tariff policies can effectively adjust trade structures and optimize economic layouts [4]. - Despite criticism from some economists, this approach has gained traction as a mainstream economic policy under the Trump administration [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Reform - Miran's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve challenge existing governance structures, which he believes are too closed and lead to "groupthink" [4]. - Suggested reforms include allowing the President to dismiss the Fed Chair and board members at any time, shortening board terms, and increasing legislative oversight of the Fed's budget [4]. - While some scholars criticize these proposals for potentially undermining the Fed's independence, they reflect Miran's desire for a more flexible and responsive decision-making process to address complex economic challenges [4]. Group 5: Controversy and Criticism - Miran's views have not been universally accepted, facing strong opposition from economists like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who critiques his tariff and monetary policies [5]. - Krugman argues that Miran's policy framework is controversial and may not succeed in practice [5]. - Nonetheless, Miran's perspectives provide a new lens on U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding the balance between globalization and domestic economic interests, challenging traditional free trade notions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated a Section 232 investigation into the import of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, which may lead to tariffs if deemed a threat to national security [2] Group 1: Industry Impact - The robot index (884126) experienced a slight decline of 0.01% as of the midday close [2] - A chairman of a domestic industrial robot company indicated that the investigation would have minimal impact on their overseas business, as most products exported to the U.S. come from their overseas subsidiaries [2] - The chairman noted that downstream sectors served by industrial robots, such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and 3C industries, may face increased pressure due to tariff implications [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The chairman expressed that the process of U.S. manufacturing returning to the country will be lengthy [2] - The company has strategically positioned itself in overseas markets for years, including through acquisitions of local firms, which mitigates potential impacts from the investigation [2]