Core Points - The U.S. private sector added 32,000 jobs in September, which is below expectations, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has risen to 92.5%, with an 81.5% chance of another cut in December [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened recession fears and increased market demand for safe-haven assets [1] Employment Data - The ADP report shows a decrease in private employment, with 32,000 jobs lost in September, which is lower than market expectations [1] - Future employment data releases may influence the pace and magnitude of potential interest rate cuts [1] Monetary Policy - The CME FedWatch indicates a significant likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming months, reflecting market sentiment regarding economic conditions [1] Gold Market - Central banks globally are increasing gold purchases, with China's gold reserves rising for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by September 2025, which is 7.7% of its foreign reserves [1] - The average global gold reserve percentage is 15%, suggesting that China has room for further increases in gold holdings to optimize its international reserve structure [1] Gold Stocks ETF - The Gold Stocks ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stocks Index (931238), which includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of companies in the gold industry and is characterized by high industry concentration and a value investment style [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are becoming a significant factor in the pricing of the U.S. equity market, with expectations of a bull market rising among investors [1][2] - Following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding high stock indices, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average averaging a drop of 79 basis points over three trading days [1] - The Fed's monetary policy challenges are highlighted by the potential for a declining dollar index if interest rate cut expectations are reinforced, which could lead to reduced capital inflows into the U.S. and subsequent economic downturns [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government's increasing debt, which exceeds 123% of GDP, complicates the Fed's ability to manage monetary policy effectively while addressing inflation concerns [3] - The Fed's strategy may involve small adjustments to interest rates to gauge market reactions, balancing the need for economic growth against inflation control [3][4] - The challenge for the Fed lies in preventing a consensus on market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which could lead to frequent re-pricing of these expectations [4]

来源：21世纪经济报道 肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 整体来看，为了平衡经济增长的目标，接下来美国联邦基金利率（银行间的隔夜拆借利率）走低已经是 大概率事件。但如何避免市场形成单边的一致性预期，并且避免这种预期被频繁定价，这或许是摆在美 联储面前的最大挑战。 所以引导预期，或许是鲍威尔此番言论背后的深意。毕竟在美国的债务危机之下，美联储被动配合白宫 降息已经成为市场普遍共识。尤其是令美国政府举债上限名存实亡的"大而美法案"，其影响效应将逐渐 在2026财年兑现，美元资产的价值锚定效应日渐丧失。在这种背景下，如果美元持续降息，那么全球投 资者抛售美元资产或将成为避险本能下的占优策略。虽然距离离任只有8个月，但这显然不是鲍威尔愿 意看到的结局。由此，在力所能及的范围内影响市场对美联储接下来降息预期幅度和频次的判断，避免 市场形成一致性的单边预期，大概率是鲍威尔的初衷。 此外，美联储或许也是想向市场释放一个信号，那就是此次降息虽然是"情非得已"，但美联储不会妥 协。毕竟经济数据具有滞后性，所以关税推高通胀的出现都只是时间问题。如果遏制通胀的果实因为关 税而功亏一篑，那么美联储将如何向民众解释" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the weakening U.S. employment data, which has led to an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][54][62] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.4% during the week [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 13.0 basis points to 4.1%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 97.74 [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [62][73] - The ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, also below the expected 68,000 [62] - Job openings in July were reported at 7.181 million, lower than the expected 7.382 million, indicating a weakening demand in the labor market [62] Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of various sectors, with communication services, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors showing increases of 5.1%, 1.6%, and 0.3% respectively, while energy, financials, and utilities sectors declined [7][10] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors rose by 7.1%, 6.6%, and 3.6% respectively, while telecommunications and consumer staples fell by 3.7% and 0.4% [10] Group 4 - The article highlights that the market is shifting from rate cut expectations to recession trading due to the disappointing employment data [71][73] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance is reinforced by the recent employment figures, with expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September increasing [54][58]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed strong performance. On Friday night, COMEX gold first soared and then declined, with the main contract price dropping from around $3,500 to around $3,450. The prices of SHFE gold and London gold had little fluctuation, and the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold once widened to $100. The new US tariff policy led to a different trend of COMEX gold compared to London gold and SHFE gold. The short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range [3][24]. - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, which may increase the expectation of a US economic recession and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but specific trend details are not elaborated [6]. 1.2 Index Changes | Index | August 8 | August 1 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,458.20 | $3,416.00 | 1.24% | | COMEX Silver | $38.51 | $37.11 | 3.79% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 787.80 | 770.72 | 2.22% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,278.00 | 8,918.00 | 4.04% | | US Dollar Index | 98.26 | 98.69 | - 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 7.19 | 7.19 | - 0.02% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.88 | 1.90 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,389.45 | 6,238.01 | 2.43% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $63.35 | $67.26 | - 5.81% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 89.80 | 92.06 | - 2.46% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.91 | 86.42 | - 1.75% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 959.64 | 953.08 | 6.56 | | iShare Gold ETF | 452.61 | 450.04 | 2.57 | [7] 2. Gold Price Fluctuation - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, increasing the market's recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index weakened again. The US stock market maintained a strong performance, with high market risk appetite, which put pressure on the gold price [9][11]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to rise. As of August 5, the long position increased by 10,953 contracts, the short position decreased by 2,501 contracts, and the long net position increased by 13,454 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [13][14]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has started to climb. In early June, the silver price rose sharply, and the corresponding ETF positions increased significantly. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, the capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance. Last week, silver first soared and then declined. As the gold price fell back, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly [16][18]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range. The US economic recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation may increase, which is beneficial to the gold price, and it is expected that the gold price will run strongly [24].

Group 1 - Gold futures showed a strong performance with the Shanghai gold futures price at 786.58 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.41% [1] - The opening price for Shanghai gold futures was 784.18 CNY per gram, with a daily high of 788.30 CNY and a low of 783.34 CNY [1] - London gold approached 3400 USD, while Shanghai gold surpassed 785 CNY, indicating a bullish trend in gold prices [2] Group 2 - The increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 226,000, slightly above market expectations, and the rise in continuing claims to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, raised recession concerns [1] - The U.S. economic outlook has weakened, leading to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices [2] - The implementation of a new round of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. has decreased market risk appetite, benefiting gold prices [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - The report is optimistic about the short - term performance of both gold and copper, with a view of short - term strength for both metals [1][3][5]. - Gold is expected to have a short - term upward trend, a medium - term sideways movement, and an intra - day tendency to be slightly stronger. Copper is also expected to have a short - term upward trend, a medium - term sideways movement, and an intra - day tendency to be slightly stronger [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices remained strong, with London gold approaching $3400 and Shanghai gold reaching above 785 yuan [3]. - **Core Logic**: In early August, the US non - farm payrolls were unexpectedly weak, and inflation rebounded more than expected earlier, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession and driving a rapid rebound in gold prices. The expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to gold prices. On August 7, a new round of "reciprocal tariffs" in the US took effect, reducing market risk appetite and also benefiting gold prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the upper edge of London gold's sideways movement since the second quarter [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, with little change in open interest [5]. - **Core Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic situation is favorable, but recent US economic data have continuously fallen short of expectations, so there is a risk of overseas recession trading. The US stock market opened high and closed low yesterday, and precious metals were strong, reducing market risk appetite. At the industrial level, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased slightly on Thursday compared to Monday, which is beneficial to copper prices. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro environment and less impact from the industrial off - season, copper prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger sideways movement [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show a short - term upward trend, with a mid - term oscillation and an intraday oscillation with a stronger bias. The view is to be bullish in the short run due to the cold non - farm payrolls and increased market risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a short - term upward trend, a mid - term oscillation, and an intraday oscillation with a stronger bias. The view is to be bullish in the short run as the domestic atmosphere has warmed up and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation with a stronger bias; Reference view: Bullish in the short run. The core logic is that the unexpected non - farm payrolls in early August and the previous inflation rebound have increased the expectation of a US economic recession, driving the rapid rebound of gold prices. Also, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and the US dollar index may weaken, which is beneficial to gold prices. The market currently expects 3 rate cuts this year. Short - term attention should be paid to the upper limit of the oscillation of New York gold since the second quarter [1][3] Copper - Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation with a stronger bias; Reference view: Bullish in the short run. The core logic is that macroscopically, the domestic atmosphere is good, while overseas, US economic data has been continuously below expectations. The market atmosphere is still stable. At the industrial level, upstream production is high, downstream demand is in the off - season and is weakening marginally, and electrolytic copper inventories are rising. With macro - level benefits and industrial - level drawbacks, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [1][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be short - term bullish, mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a short - term bullish outlook due to the cooling of tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month, and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation, which have increased the expectation of a US economic recession and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and weakened the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be short - term and mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a wait - and - see attitude. The domestic long - buying sentiment has cooled, and factors such as the off - season of downstream industries, high production of upstream electrolytic copper, and a slight increase in social inventories have put pressure on copper prices [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: rising; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: short - term bullish [1]. - **Core Logic**: In the context of reduced tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation have increased the expectation of a US economic recession, leading to a rapid rebound in gold prices. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may rise with the weakening economic expectation, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to gold prices. Technically, gold prices are still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3]. Copper - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: wait - and - see [1]. - **Core Logic**: On Tuesday, the domestic market atmosphere was good, and the non - ferrous metal sector oscillated upward, causing copper prices to rebound. After the Asian session, LME copper continued to plunge, and SHFE copper opened lower at night and oscillated narrowly around the 78,000 - yuan mark. The decline in SHFE copper's open interest to 470,000 contracts indicates a decrease in capital attention. The domestic downstream industries are in the off - season, upstream electrolytic copper production remains high, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, attention can be paid to the technical support at the 78,000 - yuan mark [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, along with corresponding core logics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price View** - Short - term: The price is expected to rise; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - **Core Logic** - In early August, the 7 - month non - farm payrolls were disappointing, and inflation unexpectedly rebounded, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession and driving up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may rise, and the US dollar index may weaken, which is beneficial to the gold price. The market atmosphere on Monday did not continue to decline from the previous Friday night, and the equity market rebounded. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. Technically, the gold price is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range can be noted [3]. Copper - **Price View** - Short - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic** - On Monday, the overall market atmosphere improved, and Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. The disappointing US non - farm payrolls in the short - term reduced market risk appetite, which was negative for copper prices, while the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts was positive. It is necessary to continuously monitor whether the global market trades on the logic of a US economic recession. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. The US tariff policy excluded refined copper last Thursday, which is beneficial to Shanghai copper and LME copper in the medium and long term. It is the off - season for domestic industrial downstream, the upstream electrolytic copper maintains high production, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the copper price has strong support at the July low [4].