财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2026-1-5 研究员 姓名：李津文 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 5 页 行情回顾: 从业资格号： 上周四个股指期货品种走势以震荡整理为主，其中上上证 50 和沪深 300 的调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度 有所加深，全部主力合约保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货- 现货基差，IH 收于-6.1，IF 收于-30.1，IC 收于-102.8，IM 收于 -159.1。 F0244287 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场整体震荡整理，沪指虽未能延续九连阳，但整体 市场表现依然稳定。行业层面，资金最为集中的商业航天板块出现 较为明显的调整，但从调整过程来看，板块个股仍能维持较好秩序， 并未出现恶性杀跌局面。即便有新的主线机器人板块强势崛起，也 并未对商业航天板块产生十分恶劣的影响。另外，受期货品种短期 剧烈波动影响，有色板块低开幅度较大，但能够迅速收复失地，并 有龙头品种创出新高。由此来看，市场的热点板块并非简单的切换， 而是有所扩散。成交量连续三日维持在 2 万亿以上水平，当前市场 的热点具有量能上的实质支撑。 综合分析： 宏 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指震荡下跌。股市全市场成交额 21577 亿元，较上日缩量 234 亿元。随着股指 接近前期高点位置，股指继续上行面临技术面阻力，股指冲 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the compilation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing the planning of major projects to boost future development and current economic stability [2] - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for seven consecutive months [2] - Four futures exchanges will temporarily exempt certain handling fees for most futures varieties from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, and the China Financial Futures Exchange will halve some handling fees [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said the need for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened [2] - US President Trump will meet with senior national security officials, and Russia's Foreign Ministry is evacuating the families of diplomats in Venezuela [2] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, and PVC [3] - Night trading performance: different commodity futures sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with the precious metals sector leading at 33.87%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector at 24.53%, and the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector at 10.46% [3] 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is not described in text [4] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.69 | 0.74 | 16.87 | | | SSE 50 | 0.53 | 1.70 | 12.49 | | | CSI 300 | 0.95 | 1.88 | 17.20 | | | CSI 500 | 1.20 | 3.19 | 26.72 | | | S&P 500 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 16.95 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.43 | - 0.22 | 28.62 | | | German DAX | - 0.05 | 1.85 | 21.94 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.81 | 0.30 | 26.34 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.32 | 1.50 | 20.71 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.09 | 0.04 | - 0.87 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.06 | 0.11 | - 0.64 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.02 | 0.08 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | WTI Crude Oil | 2.49 | - 0.80 | - 19.45 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.37 | 5.34 | 69.35 | | | LME Copper | 0.25 | 6.58 | 35.64 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 4.40 | 12.78 | 50.89 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.46 | - 1.19 | - 9.42 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 8.81 | - 14.06 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents charts of stock market risk preference and major commodity trends, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, and agricultural futures, but specific data is not described in text [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, all stock indices oscillated and rebounded. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 233.5 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The key tasks for next year are to focus on domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, and to adhere to innovation - driven development and cultivate new growth drivers. Policy benefits in expanding domestic demand and supporting technological innovation will continue and intensify, which will play a positive role in stabilizing total economic demand and promoting structural transformation and upgrading. The risk appetite of the stock market has recovered, driving the stock index to rebound [3]. - External risk factors have eased, and the domestic liquidity environment is relatively loose. In the short term, the risk appetite of the stock market is relatively positive and optimistic. Overall, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and the stock index will be mainly oscillating and strengthening in the short term [3]. - For options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a moderately bullish view can be adopted [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On December 12, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.45% to 3.134; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.56% to 4.694; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.55% to 4.766; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.63% to 4580.95; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.81% to 7370.94; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.17% to 7.285; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.20% to 2.872; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.89% to 3.174; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.58% to 3.449; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59% to 2994.64; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.87% to 1.42; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.63% to 1.37 [5]. - **Volume and Position PCR**: The report provides the volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 12, 2025, and their values on the previous trading day, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The report presents the implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options [7][8]. 2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: The report includes charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][10][11]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: There are charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [32][33][34]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: The report shows charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [44][45][46]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: There are charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [57][58][59]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [71][72][73]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: The report provides charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [84][85][86]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: There are charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [97][98][99]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: The report shows charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [110][111][112]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts cover the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [123][124][125]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: There are charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [136][137][138]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: The report provides charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [145][146][147].

Hot News - In October, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale was 12.058 million, a growth of 29.9% [4]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China has suspended the implementation of countermeasures against the US Section 301 investigation on the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [4]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,464,452 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.44%, and the palm oil production was 2,043,886 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.02% [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of domestic gold ETFs was 79.015 tons, a year-on-year increase of 164.03%. The gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons from last Thursday, a decline of 0.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7977 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0169 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.9085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0089 million tons [4]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Soda ash, glass, coking coal, SHFE copper, SHFE gold [5]. - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 3.25%, precious metals rose 29.09%, oilseeds rose 9.52%, non-ferrous metals rose 23.21%, soft commodities rose 2.72%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.02%, energy rose 2.90%, chemicals rose 11.18%, grains rose 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.90% [5]. Large - Class Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.53 | Fetching... | 19.90 | | | SSE 50 | 0.51 | -0.12 | 13.75 | | | CSI 300 | 0.35 | -0.29 | 19.32 | | | CSI 500 | 0.22 | -1.39 | 28.26 | | | S&P 500 | 1.54 | -0.64 | 16.17 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.55 | 0.11 | 32.85 | | | German DAX | 1.65 | 0.38 | 20.35 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.26 | -4.20 | 27.62 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 19.75 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | -0.18 | -0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | -0.12 | -0.56 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.49 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.38 | -0.09 | 2.81 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.47 | -2.09 | -16.53 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.88 | -0.57 | 56.84 | | | LME Copper | 1.47 | -1.46 | 23.83 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.61 | -2.67 | 30.21 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.43 | -8.17 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 3.27 | 9.97 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 29, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.2907 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The stock market rebounded with increased volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, indicating a rapid rise in the risk appetite of stock market investors [4]. - Due to the policy emphasis on significantly improving the level of scientific and technological self - reliance during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and the mention of 4 emerging industries and 6 future industries in the suggestions of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the policy利好 expectations for the technology industry are fermenting. In addition, with the conclusion of the China - US economic and trade talks and the news of the China - US presidential meeting, the external uncertainty risk factors are gradually easing. The internal policy利好 expectations and the easing of external risk factors jointly drive the continuous upward movement of the stock market risk appetite [4]. - However, there are fewer incremental policies in November, and there is still a possibility of a technical correction in the stock indices. In general, the future trend of the market mainly depends on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy利好 expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. In the short term, the stock indices will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, the strategy of bull spread or covered call is maintained [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On October 29, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.44% to close at 3.210; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.25% to close at 4.862; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.17% to close at 5.013; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.19% to close at 4747.84; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.20% to close at 7569.12; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.06% to close at 7.594; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.05% to close at 3.031; the GEM ETF rose 2.96% to close at 3.300; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 2.00% to close at 3.677; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.41% to close at 3063.02; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.29% to close at 1.57; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.27% to close at 1.52 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on October 29, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous trading day are provided in detail, for example, the trading volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 93.07 (previous trading day: 93.02), and the position PCR was 97.12 (previous trading day: 97.23) [7]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the SSE 50ETF option in November 2025 was 14.78%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.75% [8]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Option**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [10][12][14][19]. - **SSE 300ETF Option**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [22][24][26][32]. - **SZSE 300ETF Option**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [35]. - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [38]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [40]. - **SSE 500ETF Option**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [54]. - **SZSE 500ETF Option**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [69]. - **GEM ETF Option**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [83]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [96]. - **SSE 50 Index Option**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [109]. - **STAR 50ETF Option**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [122]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Option**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 27, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.3566 trillion yuan, an increase of 365 billion yuan compared to the previous day. With the conclusion of the China - US economic and trade consultations, external uncertainty risks eased, and investors' risk appetite recovered. The release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee pointed out that the main goals during the 15th Five - Year Plan period include achieving significant results in high - quality development and greatly improving the level of scientific and technological self - reliance. Policy - driven positive expectations led to an increase in market risk appetite. However, as stock valuations rose, there was still a willingness among profit - taking funds to lock in profits. The future trend of the market depends on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - driven positive expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. In general, the stock indices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, the strategy of bull spread or covered call is maintained [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On October 27, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.75% to close at 3.216; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.17% to close at 4.826; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.24% to close at 4.977; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.19% to close at 4716.02; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03% to close at 7495.38; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.48% to close at 7.478; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.53% to close at 2.985; the GEM ETF rose 1.97% to close at 3.209; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.34% to close at 3.617; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.78% to close at 3069.53; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.50% to close at 1.56; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.48% to close at 1.51 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options on October 27, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous trading day are provided in detail, including those of 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are presented, such as the 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - For each type of option (e.g., 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, etc.), multiple charts are provided, including the underlying asset's trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and chart of at - the - money implied volatility for different tenors [9][21][33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall view of the report is that the treasury bond futures will show an oscillating trend. In the short - term, they will be mainly in an oscillating consolidation state, with an oscillating - up trend during the day, and the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating. The futures are influenced by monetary policy expectations and stock market risk preferences, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating - up, and the overall view is oscillating. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The daily view of varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is oscillating - up, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. - The core logic is that the treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. They are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and stock market risk preferences. Based on August macro - economic data, credit data is weak, consumption growth has marginally weakened, and inflation data is weak, leading to an increasing expectation of stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in the domestic market in the fourth quarter as the overseas Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation is gradually realized. Additionally, the stock market risk preference is high, and the capital side suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect. Overall, the treasury bond futures have both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly be in an oscillating consolidation state in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range from 4.25%-4.5%, amidst differing opinions on future policy directions [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the extent of the rate cut, with some advocating for a larger reduction due to concerns over economic growth, while others worry about inflation remaining above the 2% target [1]. - The overall trend indicates the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, which is seen as favorable for precious metals [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The gold price in Shanghai fell by 0.36%, closing at 835.08 yuan per gram [3]. - The current risks in the U.S. job market and the political instability in Europe are contributing to a decline in the dollar index, increasing institutional investors' demand for precious metals as a safe haven [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is likely to release dovish signals, which may lead to increased market volatility and differing interpretations of the decision [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]