金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20250925 当前（2025 年 9 月 25 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （ 11.7%） 、 通 信 （ 10.4% ）、综合（ 7.2%） 、 电 力 设 备 及 新 能 源 （6.6%）、有色金属（6.4%）、农林牧渔（6.3%）、电子（5.5%）、煤 炭（5.4%）、基础化工（4.9%）、钢铁（4.7%）、医药（4.7%）、国防 军工（3.7%）、综合金融（3.6%）、家电（3.0%）、汽车（2.8%）、机 械（2.7%）、纺织服装（2.6%）、交通运输（2.6%）、银行（2.5%）、 传媒（1.5%）、计算机（1.4%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤 ...

Group 1: Industry Index Pool Construction - The report outlines the construction of an industry index pool that combines investability and representativeness, focusing on passive products tracking strong industry attributes [10][12]. - Since 2020, the scale of industry ETFs has experienced explosive growth, increasing from 85.8 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to over 310 billion yuan by the end of 2020, and approaching 900 billion yuan by August 2025 [10]. - The report categorizes various industry ETFs, highlighting that TMT, financial real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors have surpassed 100 billion yuan in ETF scale [10]. Group 2: Economic Prosperity Investment Practices - The report discusses the calculation of expected ROE growth for industries based on analysts' profit forecasts, comparing two fiscal years (FY1 and FY2) [20][21]. - It emphasizes that the FY2 grouping shows stronger monotonicity in performance compared to FY1, indicating better returns for the former [23][24]. - The backtesting period for the economic prosperity factor spans from January 1, 2018, to September 12, 2025, with a focus on marginal changes in industry index prosperity [27]. Group 3: Economic Trend Resonance Strategy - The economic trend resonance strategy combines fundamental marginal improvements with capital consensus, utilizing trend factors to quantify market sentiment [36][38]. - The constructed economic trend resonance portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 12.33% since 2018, outperforming the CSI 800 index by 11.13% [40][42]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate stands at 64%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.30 [45]. Group 4: Economic Trend and Crowding Avoidance Strategy - The strategy integrates economic trend analysis with crowding avoidance to mitigate risks associated with overheated trading [49]. - The three-dimensional strategy has yielded an annualized return of 12.80% since 2018, exceeding the CSI 800 index by 11.60% [52][54]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate is 62%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.47 [57]. Group 5: Current Industry Characteristics - As of August 2025, the report identifies industries that align with the economic trend resonance and crowding avoidance strategy, including the transportation index, home appliances, livestock, media, and oil and gas sectors [60]. - The expected growth rates for these sectors range from 1.1% to 9.6%, with varying levels of crowding and valuation metrics [60].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on sector rotation and thematic ETFs, suggesting a focus on sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The model portfolio has shown a cumulative net return of approximately 3.12% for the period from September 8 to September 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 1.65% [4]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in the following ETFs: - Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF - Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF - Biomedicine ETF - Continued holdings are suggested for: - Pharmaceutical ETF - Aerospace ETF - Satellite ETF [3][12]. Performance Tracking - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 25.17%, with an excess return of about 6.13% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [4]. - The average return of the ETF portfolio for the recent week was 3.12%, with a notable excess return of 1.65% over the CSI 300 ETF [13]. ETF Holdings and Signals - The report details specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a continued hold or adjustment based on market signals: - Pharmaceutical ETF (58.63% weight) - continue holding - Semiconductor ETF (96.38% weight) - newly added - Aerospace ETF (58.23% weight) - continue holding - Satellite ETF (32.59% weight) - continue holding [12][13]. Market Timing Signals - The timing signals for the ETFs are based on volume and price indicators, with values of 1 indicating bullish signals, 0 neutral, and -1 bearish [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant positions in non-ferrous metals (15.5%), non-bank financials (12.9%), and comprehensive sectors (7.4%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries is reported at 4.1%, with the best-performing sectors being communication (10.9%), electronics (9.6%), and media (7.3%) [3][10] - The report indicates that the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 25.8% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 3.0% [3] Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors for the week include communication (10.9%), electronics (9.6%), and media (7.3%), while the worst performers are banking (-0.1%), oil and petrochemicals (0.9%), and coal (1.1%) [3][10] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of weekly and monthly performance across various sectors, indicating a strong performance in communication and electronics [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying sectors with high valuation risks. Currently, the retail, media, and computer sectors are flagged for high valuations, exceeding the 95% percentile [12][13] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy (S1) are non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture [15][16] - The report outlines the performance of various strategies, with S1 showing a significant excess return of 6.2% compared to the benchmark [3] Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The macro style rotation strategy identifies six industries with favorable macro indicators: comprehensive finance, computer, communication, national defense industry, electronics, and media [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic indicators in predicting industry performance, utilizing a multi-factor approach to assess exposure to different styles [23][24]

Market and Industry Overview - In the past month, major domestic market indices have risen, with the CSI 500, CSI 1000, National Index 2000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 increasing by 13.13%, 11.67%, 11.02%, 10.33%, and 7.22% respectively [2][12] - Almost all industry indices have risen, with 29 out of 31 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index showing gains. The telecommunications sector had the highest increase at 33.78%, while construction, coal, and banking sectors lagged behind with monthly changes of 0.77%, 0.57%, and -1.67% respectively [2][12] Industry Rotation Strategy Performance - The August performance of the expected enhancement industry rotation strategy yielded a return of 21.63%, significantly outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark return of 9.34%, resulting in an excess return of 12.33% [4][34] - The economic valuation industry rotation strategy achieved a return of 11.01%, with an excess return of 1.69% relative to the industry equal-weight benchmark [4][34] - The research industry selection strategy had a modest performance with a return of 6.71%, but an excess return of -2.61% [4][42] Factor Analysis and Performance - In August, six fundamental factors showed positive performance, with quality, valuation momentum, analyst expectations, and surprise factors being particularly notable, achieving IC averages of 46.31%, 23.89%, 43.35%, and 31.65% respectively [3][20] - All factors have positive IC values year-to-date, with quality, analyst expectations, and research activity factors standing out, achieving IC averages of 7.48%, 7.49%, and 10.92% respectively [21] - The multi-directional returns for quality, analyst expectations, and research activity factors reached 19.70%, 15.56%, and 11.56% respectively [21] Recommended Industries - For September, the expected enhancement industry rotation strategy recommends the electronics, media, non-bank financials, and computer sectors, with a shift from telecommunications to computers compared to the previous month [5][48] - The economic valuation industry rotation strategy recommends media, electronics, computers, retail, and real estate sectors, although real estate and retail did not receive recommendations from the expected enhancement strategy due to lower analyst expectations [5][48] - The research industry selection strategy for September includes construction, coal, steel, media, and retail sectors, with steel showing increased research activity and reduced crowding [5][53]

Group 1 - The macro timing strategy has an annualized return of 7.08% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.34 as of August 29, 2025, with the latest portfolio including various ETFs such as the CSI 500 ETF (8.35%) and government bond ETFs (38.21%) [2][4][8] - The momentum strategy has an annualized return of 20.22% since 2020, with a recent portfolio allocation including the CSI Digital Economy Theme ETF (19.51%) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF (20.37%) [10][14] - The industry rotation strategy has achieved an annualized return of 9.34% since 2020, with the latest holdings including non-ferrous metals ETFs and green power ETFs [19][16] Group 2 - The Copula-based second-order stochastic dominance strategy has an annualized return of 15.52% since 2020, with the latest portfolio including the Huaxia CSI Agricultural Theme ETF (6.71%) and the Guangfa CSI Major Consumption ETF (69.79%) [21][24] - The technology ETF allocation strategy based on quantile random forests has an annualized return of 12.33% since 2020, with a significant portion allocated to the Guangfa CSI All-Index Information Technology ETF (4.78%) and the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (76.51%) [27][31]

Group 1: Core Insights - The current industry allocation of the Bank of China multi-strategy system includes Electronics (11.6%), Comprehensive (11.6%), Non-Bank Financials (9.4%), and others, indicating a diversified investment approach [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries is 1.8%, with the best-performing sectors being Communication (17.3%), Electronics (12.2%), and Computer (7.0%) [3][10] - The cumulative return of the industry rotation composite strategy this year is 25.5%, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark return of 21.6% by 3.9% [3] Group 2: Industry Performance Review - The worst-performing sectors this week include Coal (-2.7%), Textile and Apparel (-2.4%), and Banking (-1.7%) [3][10] - The current PB valuation for the Retail Trade, Defense Industry, Media, and Computer sectors exceeds the 95% percentile of the past six years, triggering a high valuation warning [12][13] Group 3: Strategy Performance - The highest excess return strategy this year is the S2 "Unfalsified Sentiment Tracking Strategy," with an excess return of 14.7% [3] - The top three industries based on the S1 "High Prosperity Industry Rotation Strategy" are Non-Bank Financials, Agriculture, and Non-Ferrous Metals [15][16] - The current macro indicators favor the following six industries: Comprehensive Finance, Computer, Media, Defense Industry, Comprehensive, and Non-Bank Financials [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on the research reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) to construct a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20250811, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, games, and semiconductors. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products like Game ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF, and Satellite ETF, and continue to hold products like Bank ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF, and Gold Stock ETF [2] - As of last weekend, some ETFs and the trading timing signals of the underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Performance Tracking - During the period from 20250804 to 20250808, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 2.62%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.41% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 7.08%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.79% [3] Future 1 - Week Recommended ETFs (20250811 - 20250815) | Fund Code | ETF Name | Holding Status | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Heavy - Positioned Shenwan II Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800 | Bank ETF | Continue to hold | 151.38 | Joint - stock banks (44.73%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159869 | Game ETF | Transfer in | 73.17 | Games (81.29%) | 1 | 1 | | 588780 | Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF | Transfer in | 2.77 | Semiconductors (95.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159940 | Financial Real Estate ETF | Continue to hold | 7.99 | Securities (29.12%) | 1 | - 1 | | 517520 | Gold Stock ETF | Continue to hold | 46.34 | Precious metals (41.51%) | 1 | 1 | | 510000 | Central Enterprise ETF | Continue to hold | 1.21 | State - owned large - scale banks (18.11%) | 1 | 1 | | 512690 | Wine ETF | Continue to hold | 152.39 | Baijiu (85.37%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159206 | ZETF | Transfer in | 1.33 | Military electronics II (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 159786 | VRETF | Transfer in | 1.32 | Optoelectronics (26.64%) | 1 | 1 | | 159652 | Non - ferrous 50 ETF | Transfer in | 5.21 | Industrial metals (49.34%) | 1 | 1 | [9] Near 1 - Week ETF Holdings and Performance (20250804 - 20250808) | Fund Code | Current Holding Status | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Near 1 - Week Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562550 | - | Green Power ETF | 1.21 | 1.50 | | 512800 | Continue to hold | Bank ETF | 151.38 | 1.99 | | 512690 | Continue to hold | Wine ETF | 152.39 | 1.06 | | 159768 | - | Real Estate ETF | 6.13 | 2.14 | | 159940 | Continue to hold | Financial Real Estate ETF | 7.99 | 1.41 | | 515220 | Transfer out | Coal ETF | 80.20 | 3.78 | | 159996 | Transfer out | Home Appliance ETF | 12.72 | 2.55 | | 510060 | Continue to hold | Central Enterprise ETF | 1.21 | 1.42 | | 516550 | Transfer out | Agricultural ETF | 1.87 | 1.76 | | 517520 | Continue to hold | Gold Stock ETF | 46.34 | 8.91 | | - | ETF Portfolio Average Return | - | - | 2.62 | | 510300 | - | CSI 300 ETF | 3819.72 | 1.21 | | - | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | - | - | 1.41 | [10]

Group 1 - The report identifies six main categories of public quantitative products, totaling 919 products with a combined scale of 386.87 billion yuan, with the largest categories being index enhancement, active quantitative, and absolute return funds [4][10][11] - Active quantitative funds have shown a higher correlation with quality, growth, and small-cap factors in 2020, shifting to a stronger correlation with small-cap factors after 2022 [4][22] - The report outlines four main strategies for active quantitative funds, including equity fund enhancement, SmartBeta style strategies, industry rotation/all-industry quantitative stock selection strategies, and quantitative strategies from active equity teams [4][12][17] Group 2 - The report details the distribution of public quantitative products by strategy, highlighting that index enhancement funds account for 374 products with a scale of 194.32 billion yuan, while active quantitative funds consist of 343 products totaling 91.39 billion yuan [10][11] - The active quantitative fund strategies include equity fund enhancement represented by products like Baodao Qihang and Baodao Yuhang, SmartBeta strategies focusing on small-cap and dividend strategies, and industry rotation products like Huashan Event-Driven Quantitative Strategy [4][12][17] - The report emphasizes the differences in active quantitative product layouts among various fund companies, with specific companies focusing on different strategies such as full-industry quantitative stock selection or style funds [13][14] Group 3 - The report lists the top 20 active quantitative products by scale, with notable products including Zhao Shang Quantitative Selection A and Guojin Quantitative Multi-Factor A, highlighting their respective strategies and performance metrics [15][24] - It notes that many of the top-performing active quantitative products in 2025 have a tendency to invest in small-cap stocks, indicating a market trend towards smaller market capitalization [25][26] - The report also discusses the environmental adaptability of different strategies within active quantitative funds, indicating varying performance based on market conditions [26]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the current market adjustment is not expected to be sustained, presenting a potential short-term accumulation window, driven by high-growth sectors such as PCB, optical modules, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][3] - It is recommended to moderately increase positions in leading sectors in August, while also paying attention to potential rotation directions [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of semiconductor and medical device industries, which are currently at relatively low levels and closely related to the main logic of the current market trend, offering dual advantages of valuation recovery and sustained growth [6][8] Group 2 - The report highlights the automotive industry as worthy of attention due to its low valuation and potential for marginal improvement under the influence of policies aimed at reducing internal competition [6][8] - The report identifies several low-position industries with marginal improvements, including electric motors, automotive, and environmental protection, indicating positive trends in key indicators such as export amounts and production levels [7][8] - The report notes that the political bureau meeting's content did not meet expectations, leading to market corrections in sectors like anti-involution, real estate, and cyclical industries [6][8]