他强调，仅从供给侧理解规模经济是不充分的。规模优势能否转化为现实增长，关键在于需求端是否能 够形成有效匹配。历史经验表明，通过限制竞争、压缩供给来应对经济下行，并不能从根本上解决问 题，反而可能通过抑制收入和预期，进一步削弱需求。 通过限制竞争、压缩供给来应对经济下行，反而可能通过抑制收入和预期，进一步削弱需求。 在中国经济结构转型与内外部环境变化交织的背景下，如何理解产业优势、需求约束与宏观政策取向， 成为当前宏观讨论的重要议题。在1月10日举办的"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，中金公司首 席经济学家、论坛副理事长彭文生发表主旨演讲时表示，中国制造业尤其是绿色产业和人工智能，具备 典型的规模经济特征。 彭文生表示，自工业革命以来，规模经济始终是推动经济长期增长的核心载体之一。规模并非静态概 念，而是与技术进步和创新活动相互强化、持续演化的"动态规模经济"。在这一过程中，规模扩张通过 降低成本、提高效率促进技术进步，而技术进步又在新的基础上支撑更大规模的生产与应用，二者形成 正向循环，构成现代经济增长的重要动力。 他认为，当前中国经济面临的问题，并非单一的金融或产业问题，而是金融周期、需求不足与收入 ...

除对短期竞争压力的讨论外，部分韩媒从长期视角审视中国制造业竞争力变化的背景。韩国《中央日 报》称，过去十年中国在《中国制造2025》等政策框架下持续推进制造业与尖端技术升级，在电动汽 车、动力电池、工业机器人、风电装备等多个领域形成完整产业链和规模化优势。这种以长期政策连续 性、资本投入和应用场景扩展为支撑的推进方式，正在重塑东亚制造业的竞争基础，并引发韩国社会对 未来产业格局变化的讨论。 日本在多个领域垫底 韩国《金融新闻》称，日本制造业的处境同样不容乐观。日本仅机械领域的出口竞争力出现一定改善， 在汽车、半导体、钢铁和化学工业等主要品目上，过去5年整体呈下滑趋势。其中半导体、钢铁和化学 工业领域连续多年处于三国中竞争力最低水平，凸显了其在传统制造业核心领域的结构性局限。 【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银 环球时报驻日本特约记者 王军】中国制造业在东亚出口市场的优势 持续扩大，正迅速拉开与日韩的距离。2025年即将过去之际，韩国贸易协会国际贸易通商研究院发布 《韩中日五大主力产品出口竞争力比较》报告。报告显示，除半导体外，中国多项传统制造业领域的出 口竞争力已全面领先韩国和日本，"这一趋势正在重塑区域制造业 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：首席经济学家论坛 屈宏斌系汇丰银行大中华区前首席经济学家、首席经济学家论坛副理事长 规模经济是被低估的中国制造王牌 今年中美贸易战烽火狼烟，但前11个月我国货物贸易顺差突破万亿美元，创世界贸易史上新高，震惊全 球。那么到底为什么中国制造这么牛？说起中国制造的竞争优势，很多人会先想到成本、效率，但有一 个王牌常常被低估——规模经济。千万别以为这只是单个工厂开足马力摊薄成本的小把戏，真正的精髓 在于产业集群拧成的产业链生态：链上每家企业都能专攻一两个细分环节，把小优势磨成大杀器，最终 让整个集群在全球市场横着走。 黄岩，号称"中国模具之乡"，这可不是自卖自夸的宣传口号，而是全球制造业链条上盖章认证的"硬通 货"。这里扎堆了2200余家模具企业，光从业人员就超过12万人，2024年模具产业年产值突破480亿元， 是全球注塑模具领域密度最高、分工最细、响应最快的产业集群之一。你日常用的美的电饭煲外壳、戴 森吹风机的塑料组件、特斯拉车内的精密塑料件，甚至新冠疫情期间紧缺的医用注射器模具，十有八九 都出自黄岩的车间。 黄岩模具的"牛"，从来不 ...

环保有成本，中国是如何把成本转变为红利的？对此，曹远征指出，超大规模性是理解中国经济发展的 一把钥匙，它是中国经济集成创新的基础，也是其经济韧性的来源。 曹远征指出，超大规模性是中国经济集成创新的基础，也是其经济韧性的来源。 在12月18日举行的"2025第一财经资本年会"上，中国经济五十人论坛成员、清华大学管理实践访问教授 曹远征以"中国经济韧性及产业发展路径——对中国经济超大规模性的认识"为主题发表演讲。 曹远征指出，传统上，人们将碳减排视为一种发展的成本，中国却把绿色发展转变为红利，新能源车就 是典型的红利出现。 "电池加轮子在一百多年前就已出现，但中国把它变成与燃油车媲美的商业化大规模生产的新兴产业。 其技术路线既不是传统的电瓶车，也不是现代的燃油车。其零部件需要专门研发和配套生产。"曹远征 表示。 以比亚迪为例，曹远征指出，与其配套的专用零部件40%出产于在大湾区的企业。这意味着比亚迪生产 链和供应链上分工更加专业化，而更加细化分工预示着更为显著的规模经济，使在这一网络中专门生产 的特种配套产品，也因比亚迪的世界级规模而成为世界级量产，其中刀片电池就是例证。 曹远征认为，原创的高技术对国家经济发展固 ...

证券日报网讯 12月17日，浙文影业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，海外产能布局的完善将显著增 强产品国际竞争力，加速形成规模经济新优势。目前，公司出品的文旅题材微短剧《有间客栈》、公安 题材竖屏微剧《江南机动队》均杀青待播。 （编辑 丛可心） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on the DRAM market, highlighting how Japan and South Korea navigated challenges through long-term investments and strategic decisions, ultimately leading to shifts in market dominance. Group 1: Japan's Rise in DRAM - In 1976, Japan initiated a national program called VLSI to catch up with the U.S. in the semiconductor industry, focusing on DRAM as a standardized product with high capital requirements and significant scale effects [2] - From 1978 to 1984, Japanese companies expanded production during a downturn in the DRAM market, betting on long-term scale economies despite short-term financial losses [3] - By 1985, Japan's strategy paid off, capturing over 80% of the global DRAM market share, while U.S. companies like Intel exited the market due to unsustainable losses [5][6] Group 2: South Korea's Aggressive Strategy - In the 1990s, South Korea, particularly Samsung, adopted a similar strategy to Japan, investing heavily in DRAM during the Asian financial crisis, while Japanese firms opted for cost-cutting [7][9] - Samsung's aggressive investment during the crisis allowed it to gain a significant cost advantage over Japanese competitors, leading to a shift in market leadership by the 2000s [9][10] - The failure of Japan's Elpida to compete effectively against Samsung and SK Hynix resulted in the collapse of Japan's DRAM industry by 2012 [10] Group 3: Taiwan's Unique Approach - Taiwan's TSMC, founded by Morris Chang in 1987, focused solely on chip manufacturing without engaging in design, which was a departure from the integrated model prevalent at the time [11][13] - TSMC's strategy of maintaining neutrality and not competing with its customers allowed it to build trust and a strong customer base, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of growth [13][14] - By the late 2010s, TSMC became the go-to manufacturer for leading chip design companies, solidifying its position in the industry despite high capital expenditures [14] Group 4: Lessons from the Semiconductor Industry - Success in capital-intensive industries requires long-term patience and the ability to endure short-term financial pressures, as demonstrated by Japan and South Korea's strategies [16] - Industry competition is a long-term game, where decisions made at critical junctures can have lasting impacts, as seen with Intel's exit from DRAM [17] - The ability to tolerate long-term failures is crucial for industry success, as evidenced by the supportive environments in Japan and Korea during their respective rises [18] - In capital-intensive sectors, maintaining clear boundaries and focusing on core competencies can provide a competitive edge, as illustrated by TSMC's approach [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of Nova Coffee as a new benchmark in the Chinese coffee market, highlighting its rapid expansion and innovative business model that focuses on sustainable growth rather than mere scale [4][6]. Group 1: Growth Model - Nova Coffee has achieved a remarkable GMV growth of 400% year-on-year while maintaining a strong cup volume increase, indicating effective expansion rather than superficial growth [20][22]. - The company has a monthly store opening rate of approximately 1,000, with peak months reaching 1,800 new stores, surpassing historical expansion rates of competitors like Starbucks and Luckin Coffee [13][15]. - Nova's growth is characterized by a "speed and quality" model, breaking the traditional "scale paradox" where rapid expansion often leads to diminishing returns [10][11]. Group 2: Competitive Barriers - Nova Coffee has established a three-dimensional differentiation barrier by reconstructing "people, goods, and scenes," allowing it to maintain pricing power amidst fierce competition [30]. - The company focuses on health-conscious products, positioning itself against the trend of high-sugar offerings, thus capturing a unique market segment [31]. - Nova operates 24/7, maximizing asset utilization and enhancing ROI by breaking traditional time constraints in coffee shop operations [32][38]. Group 3: Digitalization and Delivery - Nova Coffee leverages its strong digital capabilities and delivery systems to capture online traffic, positioning itself as a "full-service flow operation center" [45][49]. - The company has amassed tens of millions of new members, creating a valuable digital asset that drives business decisions and enhances customer retention [47][48]. - Nova's external partnerships enable it to tap into the growing online food delivery market, which has seen daily orders increase from 100 million to 200 million [42][44]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The article posits that Nova Coffee's current scale is just the beginning, as it explores a "joint operation model" that allows for extensive market penetration without the traditional overhead costs [52][60]. - This model enables Nova to partner with existing retail outlets, significantly lowering the barriers to entry for coffee sales in various locations [53][59]. - The potential market for Nova is vast, with opportunities to penetrate millions of retail locations across China, far exceeding the limitations of traditional coffee shop models [60][64].

未来市场将由Waymo和特斯拉主导，合计占据2032年美国自动驾驶里程约70%。两者竞争焦点在于安全与成本的终极博弈：Waymo凭借NHTSA数 据估算的36万英里平均无事故里程，建立7倍安全壁垒；特斯拉Robotaxi当前仅5万英里，但每英里成本仅0.81美元，较Waymo第5代车型的1.36- 1.43美元低40%-43%。Waymo第6代车型预计2027年规模化后成本降至0.99-1.08美元，接近私人拥车成本0.70美元/英里。谁先补齐短板，谁将锁定 胜局。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克近期表示："FSD安全里程将很快追平Waymo，我们的成本优势无人能及。"传统网约车平台优步和Lyft面临"蚕 食"危机。目前Uber占网约车市场70%，Lyft为30%，但到2032年，在Waymo自营APP与特斯拉不合作假设下，二者仅捕获自动驾驶行程的22%和 7%。 格隆汇12月10日｜摩根士丹利最新研报勾勒出2026年自动驾驶33城落地的爆发图景，预计美国将有33个城市推出商业化服务，并将2026年定位为 自动驾驶行业的"奇点"时刻。这标志着从概念炒作向商业落地的残酷转变，投资者需警惕估值逻辑的重塑。报告强调，这一拐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized the need for China to become a consumer powerhouse, aligning its consumption-to-GDP ratio with international standards and enhancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [3][7]. Group 1: Key Points on Consumer Powerhouse - Liu Shijun outlined three focal points for building a consumer powerhouse: aligning consumption with GDP, prioritizing service consumption, and creating the world's largest consumer market [3][7]. - There is an urgent need to address structural consumption gaps to match the current per capita income levels in China with international standards [3][7]. - Development of service consumption, particularly human capital investment in education, healthcare, and social security, is crucial for driving innovation [3][7]. Group 2: Key Points on Manufacturing and Trade - China's manufacturing sector accounts for 30% of the global share, making it the largest goods exporter, yet there is a significant gap in the internationalization of the Renminbi [4][8]. - A new strategy is needed to balance imports and exports, allowing for increased imports paid in Renminbi while maintaining export competitiveness [4][8]. - In 2024, China's trade surplus is projected to approach $1 trillion, and by shifting to Renminbi for imports, it could significantly expand the offshore Renminbi market from over 1 trillion to more than 7 trillion Renminbi [9].

Core Insights - Didi's Q3 2025 financial results show total revenue of approximately 58.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, with a net profit of 1.5 billion, meeting expectations [1] - The core platform's order volume, including domestic and international businesses, grew by 13.8% year-on-year to 4.685 billion orders, with daily average orders exceeding 50 million [1] - Didi's domestic business remains robust despite macroeconomic challenges, holding the highest market share and demonstrating resilience [2][4] - The international business, particularly in Latin America, is expanding into a "mobility+" ecosystem, enhancing Didi's future growth potential [1][5] Domestic Business Performance - In Q3, Didi's domestic GTV increased by 10.1% to 86 billion, with a 10.7% rise in order volume and an 8% revenue growth [2] - Didi's scale provides a competitive advantage, with a projected market share of 70% in 2024 [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience and improving driver satisfaction as part of its growth strategy [2][4] Supply and Demand Strategies - Didi is launching various segmented services to stimulate potential travel demand while providing drivers with better order opportunities [3] - The upgraded driver welfare initiatives aim to enhance driver satisfaction and service quality, reinforcing the platform's operational foundation [4] International Business Expansion - Didi's international order volume grew by 24.3% year-on-year to 1.162 billion, with revenue increasing by 35% [5] - The relaunch of the "99 Food" brand in Brazil has expanded to over 30 cities, integrating ride-hailing and delivery services into a super app [5][6] - Didi's international strategy emphasizes local adaptation and ecosystem extension, with successful operations in Mexico validating the "mobility+" model [7][8] Sustainability and Future Outlook - Didi is actively promoting sustainable transportation initiatives in Brazil, including the introduction of electric vehicle services [10] - The company aims to invest 20 billion Brazilian Reais in its Brazilian food delivery business over the next year, targeting expansion to 100 cities by mid-2026 [6] - Didi's international operations are characterized by stable growth and profitability, contributing to its overall business resilience [9]