你可能没意识到，人民币现在已经稳稳坐上全球第二大贸易融资货币的宝座，在跨境结算、外汇储备领 域的存在感越来越强了。 货币的终极竞争力不是霸权 全球选择货币的底层逻辑从来没有变过：谁能保证交易安全、价值稳定、使用便捷，谁就会被认可。 人民币能超越欧元，本质是它满足了全球对"靠谱货币"的迫切需求。 过去几十年，美元靠霸权建立起垄断地位，但这种"靠武力背书、靠印钱转嫁风险"的模式，早已让全球 不堪重负。 企业做跨境生意，最怕的就是美元加息、放水带来的汇率波动，一笔订单赚的钱，可能因为汇率变动瞬 间蒸发。 人民币的崛起，恰好解决了这个痛点，它不依附于军事胁迫，不搞排他性捆绑，而是靠中国持续稳定的 经济增长、庞大的贸易体量，以及"不随意滥发货币"的承诺，赢得了市场信任。 很多人误以为货币地位是靠"排名"堆出来的，其实不然。 曾经美元一家独大的日子，真的要结束了吗？从能源大国到中小企业，为啥都开始扎堆用人民币？去美 元化到底要走多久，现在终于有了清晰的答案。 企业选择人民币，是因为直接结算能省去1%-3%的汇兑成本，还能避免被第三方清算机构"卡脖子"；国 家选择人民币，是因为它能让外汇储备多元化，不再把财富安全绑在单一货 ...

我们公司有个做外贸的同事小刘，最近经常跟我们聊起一个有趣的现象。他说这两年跟欧洲客户做生 意，越来越多的合同开始用欧元结算，以前清一色都是美元。小刘说，欧洲那边的采购商现在更愿意用 欧元付款，说是汇率风险小一些，手续费也便宜。 这个现象其实反映了一个更大的趋势。根据环球银行金融电信协会SWIFT发布的最新数据，2024年11月 全球货币支付占比出现了显著变化。欧元的占比已经上升到37.79%，而美元虽然仍居首位，但占比下 降至38.85%。这个数字让很多人感到意外，美元和欧元之间的差距已经缩小到只有1个百分点左右。 4.61%这个数字背后有着实实在在的支撑。我们了解到，2024年前11个月，人民币跨境支付金额累计超 过52万亿元，同比增长24.1%。这个增长速度在主要国际货币中是很突出的。 人民币占比提升的原因也很明确。中国作为世界第二大经济体和第一大货物贸易国，与越来越多国家的 贸易往来中开始使用人民币结算。我们身边就有这样的例子，小区里开贸易公司的张老板，现在跟东南 亚、中东的客户做生意，有30%左右都是用人民币结算的。 张老板告诉我们，用人民币结算有几个好处。第1个是汇率风险小，因为他的成本本来就是人民 ...

Core Insights - Russia is accumulating hundreds of billions of Indian Rupees, driving a transformation in the global trade settlement system [1] - The conflict in Ukraine has led to Western sanctions that cut off Russia's traditional settlement channels in USD and EUR, while India is promoting the internationalization of the Rupee through energy trade with Russia [1][3] - In FY 2022-2023, India's imports from Russia reached $41.5 billion, resulting in a significant trade deficit as exports to Russia were only $2.8 billion [1] Group 1 - The liquidity of the Rupee is severely lacking, with Russian central bank data indicating that these Rupee funds are difficult to exchange freely, depreciating by approximately 17% over three years [3] - In April 2023, Russia had to suspend Rupee settlements and requested payments in RMB or UAE Dirhams instead [3] - By May 2023, Russia resumed Rupee payments through Indian joint commercial banks for targeted procurement [3] Group 2 - Leaked documents reveal that Russia plans to utilize ₹82 billion (approximately $1 billion) to procure electronic components and servers, which can serve both civilian and military needs, effectively circumventing sanctions [5] - In FY 2023, Russia's imports of electronic and mechanical products from India surged to $66 billion, a fivefold increase compared to pre-war levels [5] Group 3 - Russia is exploring joint ventures in India to convert short-term Rupee reserves into long-term investments [7] - Russia is diversifying its settlement methods, with Indian state-owned enterprises expected to start using RMB for oil payments by 2025, while private enterprises have already adopted this approach [7] - The transformation of trade settlements between Russia and India reflects a broader trend of de-dollarization, with bilateral trade reaching $68.7 billion in FY 2024, largely bypassing USD [7] Group 4 - This shift aligns with a wider global trade trend, as the IMF reports that the share of the USD in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 72% in the early 2000s to 58% in 2024 [9] - The rapid development of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has attracted over 1,700 financial institutions by 2025, covering 107 countries and regions, providing foundational support for alternative settlement systems [9] - Since 2025, international financial markets have seen multiple instances of USD-denominated assets and exchange rates declining simultaneously, indicating investor concerns about USD assets [9] Group 5 - The trend is not limited to trade between Russia and India; Brazil and China are also using local currencies for soybean trade, and South Africa and Russia are attempting similar settlement models [11] - Although the USD maintains a dominant position, its absolute advantage is gradually weakening as countries actively seek to construct a diversified settlement system [11] - The core of currency internationalization lies in liquidity and stability, with the Russia-India case illustrating the gradual evolution of a diversified global trade system driven by economic interests and geopolitical considerations [11]

Core Insights - The news highlights the increasing use of the Chinese yuan in oil trade between Russia and India, amidst Western sanctions on Russia and its economic pressures [1][4] - The reliance on the yuan is not a voluntary choice by India but rather a response to Russian demands, indicating India's complex position in the global energy market [4][6] - The situation reflects India's urgent need for energy security and cost-effective oil procurement, despite the higher transaction costs associated with yuan settlements [4][6] Group 1: Russia's Economic Strategy - Russia is adapting its economic strategies in response to Western sanctions, seeking to stabilize its finances through unconventional means [1] - The use of the yuan in oil transactions, although currently minor, suggests a potential trend towards currency diversification in global trade [6][8] - Russia is actively seeking new trade partners, such as Vietnam, to mitigate economic risks and reduce dependence on any single market [8] Group 2: India's Energy Needs and Challenges - India, as the world's third-largest oil consumer, faces significant energy demands and is looking for ways to secure oil supplies at lower costs [4][6] - The Indian government is making concessions to use the yuan for Russian oil purchases, reflecting the pressures it faces in international negotiations [4][6] - The ambiguity in India's response to U.S. pressures regarding oil purchases from Russia indicates a complex geopolitical landscape [6][8] Group 3: Future Implications - The rise of the yuan in the India-Russia oil trade could signify a gradual shift in global currency dynamics, although the dollar remains dominant [6][8] - The evolving relationship between India and Russia is subject to change, particularly with increasing U.S. influence over India's energy procurement strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a surge in gold purchases in Japan, driven by rising gold prices and a loss of confidence in the yen due to inflation and currency depreciation [2][3][4] - Gold prices in Japan have doubled in two years and quadrupled in five years, reaching 22,400 yen per gram (approximately 1,057 RMB), leading to a collective anxiety among investors [2][3] - The demand for smaller gold bars (5g, 10g, 20g) has surged as the price of larger bars (100g) becomes unaffordable for average workers, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards gold as a safe haven [2][3] Group 2 - The gold buying frenzy has disrupted supply chains, with retailers like Tanaka Precious Metals halting sales of gold bars under 50 grams due to overwhelming demand [3] - Political uncertainties, including the election of a pro-expansion fiscal leader, have exacerbated fears of yen depreciation, prompting consumers to seek gold as a more reliable form of currency [3][4] - The article suggests that the current situation in Japan may reflect a broader global trend of distrust in fiat currencies, with gold being viewed as a more stable asset amidst economic turmoil [4]

Core Insights - The global currency payment market is experiencing a quiet shift in power, with the US dollar's share in global payments declining to 46.94% by August 2025, a decrease of 1 percentage point, while the euro's share increased by 2.5 percentage points to 25.61% [1][3] - Despite the dollar's continued dominance, its leading position is being eroded by a trend towards de-dollarization, with many countries seeking alternative payment solutions [3] - The eurozone's performance is notable, achieving a recent high of 25.61% in payment share, indicating economic resilience, while traditional currencies like the British pound and Japanese yen show limited growth [3] - The international status of the renminbi is steadily rising, being the only emerging market currency among the top six active currencies globally, facing competition from the euro [3] - The renminbi's cross-border payment system has reached 189 countries and regions, with the CIPS system processing 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating significant internationalization progress [5] - Recent currency swap agreements totaling 540 billion yuan with the European Central Bank, Switzerland, and Hungary further demonstrate the renminbi's growing international appeal [5] Summary by Category Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar's share in global payments has decreased to 46.94%, while the euro's share has increased to 25.61% [1][3] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries exploring alternative payment methods [3] Eurozone Performance - The eurozone has achieved a payment share of 25.61%, marking a recent high and showcasing economic resilience [3] Renminbi Internationalization - The renminbi is the only emerging market currency among the top six active currencies, with a cross-border payment system covering 189 countries [3][5] - CIPS processed 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating robust internationalization [5] - Recent currency swap agreements totaling 540 billion yuan highlight the renminbi's increasing attractiveness [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in global capital flows, with foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds while simultaneously reducing their investments in Chinese bonds, indicating a search for stability and better opportunities in uncertain times [1][3][25] - In June, foreign investors added $80.2 billion to U.S. Treasury holdings, bringing the total to $9.13 trillion, a record high, while foreign investment in Chinese bonds decreased by 370 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with over 90 billion yuan withdrawn in May alone [1][12] - The article suggests that the current trend of investing in U.S. Treasuries is driven by a combination of global uncertainties, including market volatility and geopolitical tensions, rather than a sudden increase in the attractiveness of U.S. assets [5][10][25] Group 2 - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a favorable opportunity for bond investors, as it could lead to higher prices for existing bonds, creating a "price difference" profit opportunity [7][8] - The reduction in foreign investment in Chinese bonds is characterized as a tactical repositioning rather than a complete withdrawal, with foreign investors still holding approximately 4.3 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds, which is less than 2.5% of the total market [12][13] - The article emphasizes that the capital outflow from the Chinese bond market is not indicative of a lack of confidence in China, but rather a strategic adjustment in response to market conditions and the performance of other asset classes, such as equities [17][19][25] Group 3 - The capital movement is framed as a global rebalancing rather than a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China, with international funds diversifying their investments across various markets, including Canada, Germany, and Japan [19][21] - The unique value of Chinese bonds is increasingly recognized, particularly their low correlation with bonds from developed economies, providing a valuable hedging opportunity for investors [21][23] - The article concludes that the current dynamics in the capital markets reflect a broader trend of seeking stability and risk diversification, with capital flows being driven by long-term strategic considerations rather than short-term market reactions [25][27]

Economic Performance - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2, returning to above 5% growth levels, driven by strong demand for exports in palm oil, base metals, electronics, and automotive parts [1] - The government has adjusted its economic growth target for the year to between 4.7% and 5% due to domestic economic weakness and lack of significant growth in household consumption [4] Trade and Investment Dynamics - ASEAN is promoting the use of local currencies in trade and investment, aiming for 25% of trade among member countries to be conducted in local currencies by 2024, up from 10% in 2019 [2][8] - The U.S. government's tariff policies are not expected to significantly alter global trade dynamics, as the U.S. continues to have a strong import demand due to its expanding fiscal deficit [3] Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The Indonesian central bank has cut interest rates four times since September last year, improving liquidity in the banking system [5] - The government is slowing down the issuance of government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with a projected fiscal deficit of 2.78% of GDP [6] Regional Economic Cooperation - The deepening economic cooperation between China and Indonesia has shown significant results, with Chinese imports of machinery from Indonesia increasing by 15.9% [10] - The establishment of a regional unified QR code payment system in ASEAN is expected to reduce reliance on dollar-dominated financial infrastructure [8] Future Prospects - The ongoing investment from China in Indonesia is expected to support the country's industrialization process, leveraging Indonesia's demographic advantages and market potential [12] - The trade relationship between China and ASEAN is strengthening, with ASEAN remaining China's largest trading partner, indicating a positive outlook for future economic collaboration [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of factors including the performance of the US dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchasing behavior [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The US dollar index has fallen below 98, reaching its lowest point since April, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped to a one-week low, reducing the holding cost of gold [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the impending US tariff deadline and ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - A significant increase in central bank gold purchases has been noted, with 19 out of 36 global central banks directly procuring gold from domestic mines, up from 14 last year, indicating a shift away from reliance on US dollar settlements [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends and Future Outlook - Gold prices have recently surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, driven by the weakness of the dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying [4]. - The upcoming tariff deadline and signals from the Federal Reserve are expected to increase market volatility, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [4]. - Long-term trends suggest that central bank purchases and diversification of monetary reserves will enhance the strategic value of gold, although high levels of net long positions in gold futures may lead to profit-taking if the Fed delays rate cuts or geopolitical tensions ease [4].

Group 1: U.S. Global Military Presence - The U.S. has approximately 750 military facilities in over 80 countries, with a permanent troop presence of around 170,000, making it the most extensive military network globally [4] - The establishment of military bases has been a strategy to consolidate U.S. global hegemony, particularly in regions of strategic interest such as Europe and the Middle East [6][9] - Recent strategic adjustments include the withdrawal of troops from non-core interest areas, such as Niger and Chad, reflecting the challenges and costs associated with maintaining a vast military presence [9][10] Group 2: Economic and Financial Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has been a crucial pillar of American hegemony, serving as the world's primary reserve currency, allowing the U.S. to exert significant economic influence [10][12] - The U.S. federal debt reached $33 trillion by the end of 2023 and is projected to rise to $35 trillion in 2024, exceeding 122% of GDP, indicating a severe fiscal challenge [12][14] - Many countries are actively seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar, exploring alternative currencies for trade and investment, which could undermine the dollar's dominance [14] Group 3: Domestic Challenges - The U.S. faces significant internal issues, including political polarization and social unrest, which have been exacerbated by economic disparities and a lack of trust in government [17][18][20] - The widening wealth gap is evident, with the top 1% controlling 38.6% of the nation's wealth, while the bottom 50% holds only 2.4% [20] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline, with its GDP share dropping from approximately 12% in 2008 to below 10% in 2024, indicating a trend of industrial hollowing out [20]