特朗普2026年先是对委内瑞拉，接着对伊朗进行"精确打击"，目的就是希望提高对石油的控制权，维持石油美元的霸权地位，但特朗普低估了伊朗的反击 决心，现在伊朗的反击非常激烈。 除地缘冲突加剧外， 流动性挤兑与技术性回调也是 导致金价近期大幅波动的重要原因。 地缘冲突加剧后引发不少股市出现暴跌，进而导致机构抛售黄金 弥补保证金缺口，形成短期抛压。此外，部分投资者 "买预期卖事实"，获利了结导致金价高位回落。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 中东地缘冲突激化以来，金价呈现先涨后跌的震荡行情，主要原因在于， 市场起初将黄金视为避险工具，金价因此大幅上扬，而后市场担心 霍 尔 木兹 海峡关闭 时间会 长 于 预期 ， 或推 高美 国乃 至全 球通 胀， 金价 因 而回 落。中东局势还在不断演变中，不过目前看，金价长期升势未变。 据新华社报道， 2月28日，美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起"先发制人"军事打击，伊朗对以色列及中东地区多处目标予以还击，中东地缘局势进一步升级。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队当晚宣布，禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。霍尔木兹海峡是中东产油国的原油出口必经之路，通过这一海峡运输的石油约占全球石 油运输总量的五分之一。 ...

高市早苗以支持刺激政策、偏重经济增长并对加息持谨慎态度而闻名。早在2024年——即成为首相前一 年——她甚至表示，当时若日本央行加息将是"愚蠢的"。自去年10月上任以来，她在经济顾问小组中任 命了一些其导师安倍晋三曾安排进入日本央行委员会的再通胀派人士，包括前副行长若田部昌澄 (Masazumi Wakatabe)与片冈刚士(Goushi Kataoka)。 智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗正面临一项关键决定，即为日本央行政策委员会即将出现的空缺 提名人选。这些提名将为经济学家和投资者提供线索，显示她希望以多大力度影响央行政策。若高市早 苗选择两位"大鸽派"，可能引发日本汇债双杀。 据知情人士透露，高市早苗政府最早可能在2月25日的国会会议上，提议替换九人委员会中的野口旭 (Asahi Noguchi)和中川纯子(Junko Nakagawa)。野口旭的五年任期将于下月底届满，而中川纯子的任期 则将在6月29日结束。 在取得压倒性选举胜利后，高市早苗有机会效仿其导师、前首相安倍晋三的做法，在日本央行委员会会 中安排更多再通胀派成员。另一种选择则是挑选更为均衡的人选，以安抚担忧其经济计划可能影响公共 财政的 ...

当地时间2月18日，高市早苗当选日本第105任首相。 在宽松财政预期提振下，今天日股高开高走。 日债上涨，日本10年期国债收益率下行至2.134%附近。日元承压，美元/日元短线上行，报153.781。 日经225指数收盘上涨1.02%，报57143.84点；日本东证指数上涨1.21%至3807.25点。 | ■ .N225 分时 多日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 1天：分K v 显示 √ 〔〕 | | --- | | キャン・アット・ | 日本第105任首相 今天上午，日本政府召开内阁会议，高市早苗内阁集体辞职。 日本宪法规定，众议院选举结束后30天内须召集特别国会，进行首相指名选举。 在本届特别国会召开当日，现任内阁集体辞职，由新当选议员组成的众议院与现有参议院阵容分别进行投票，选出新一任首相，并据此重新组阁。 下午，在日本参议院首相指名选举第二轮投票中，自民党总裁高市早苗获得过半票数，确认当选日本第105任首相。 其中，在众议院首相指名选举中，高市在464张有效选票中获得354票；在参议院首相指名选举中，经过两轮投票，高市最终在246张选票中获得125票 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's statement that tariffs do not lead to inflation has sparked significant debate, especially given his previous stance that tariffs would raise prices [1] - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which is below market expectations and indicates a slowdown from December's 2.7% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 2.5%, marking the slowest growth since March 2021 [3] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, market expectations shifted towards the likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with predictions of two to three cuts in 2026 [4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts the first rate cut in June and a second in September, each by 25 basis points, while some analysts suggest the cuts could exceed current market expectations [4] Group 3 - The decline in inflation has led to a renewed focus on commodities, driven by three macro forces: changes in financial attributes, a shift in demand drivers, and a reallocation of capital [6][7] - The demand for commodities is now linked to broader themes such as the AI revolution, energy transition, and supply chain security, termed "supercycle 2.0" [6] Group 4 - The supply side of commodities is under pressure, with declining ore grades and a lack of large new projects, leading to historically low inventory levels [9] - The chemical sector is experiencing significant value differentiation, with high-end chemical products gaining pricing power compared to traditional petrochemical products [9] Group 5 - Gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against credit risk, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, reflecting concerns over the U.S. dollar's credit system [10] - Predictions for gold prices in 2026 range between $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce, while silver's industrial demand is also expected to rise due to its dual financial and industrial roles [10] Group 6 - The macroeconomic environment is shifting, moving away from reliance on single-country urbanization to a new paradigm driven by technological revolution, energy security, and geopolitical dynamics [11] - The focus is now on tangible "hard materials" that support these transformations, with attributes of copper, silver, specialty chemicals, and gold becoming critical for future wealth allocation [11]

Credit Data Overview - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5 trillion but lower than the seasonal average of 4.98 trillion[2] - New social financing (社融) reached 7.22 trillion, exceeding both market expectations of 6.51 trillion and the seasonal average[7] - The growth rate of outstanding social financing decreased to 8.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] Loan Structure Analysis - Short-term loans for residents increased by 1.097 trillion, indicating a potential marginal improvement in consumer spending due to early consumption subsidies[6] - Long-term loans for residents continued to decline for four consecutive months, with a decrease of 1.466 trillion, primarily due to weak real estate sales[6] - Corporate short-term loans surged to 2.05 trillion, reflecting increased cash flow pressures, while medium to long-term loans fell by 2.8 trillion, indicating weak corporate investment sentiment[6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on the effectiveness of fiscal policies and key economic indicators such as real estate and exports[3] - The overall economic environment is characterized as "weak reality," with significant downward pressure remaining due to insufficient domestic demand and weak confidence[3] Key Economic Indicators - M1 growth rose to 4.9%, driven by a lower base and accelerated activation of resident deposits[8] - M2 growth increased to 9%, supported by accelerated fiscal spending[8] - In January, total deposits rose by 8.09 trillion, with a notable decrease in resident deposits by 3.39 trillion, indicating a shift in deposit behavior[8]

推动投资者增持的主要因素包括：金价强劲上涨、定向降息与货币宽松预期下国债收益率走低，以及全 球与区域地缘政治不确定性高企。此前参与有限的国内机构投资者对黄金ETF的偏好亦明显提升。 据世界黄金协会，2026年1月，中国市场黄金ETF资金流入约440亿元人民币，实现连续第五个月净流 入，为历史第二高单月流入规模。受金价上涨推动，黄金ETF资产管理总规模（AUM）升至3330亿元 人民币，创历史新高，同时黄金持仓增加38吨至286吨，再度刷新纪录。 初步数据显示，2月初金价回落曾引发短期资金流出，但随后几日市场需求已恢复回升，整体态势仍具 韧性。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The social financing growth rate in January is 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month, indicating overall stability in financing conditions [3][6] - New social financing reached 7.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.4 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [6][9] - The monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in the first half of the year [4][5] Group 2: Financial Data Characteristics - The credit growth rate has slowed, with the year-on-year growth of credit balance at 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][12] - M2 and M1 growth rates have both increased, with M2 at 9.0% and M1 at 4.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two [4][15] - Government bond net financing increased by 976.4 billion yuan, supporting social financing growth [9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Structure - The structure of financing shows a shift, with government bonds and bills providing support while on-balance sheet credit and direct financing are still adjusting [3][8] - New loans in January amounted to 4.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 320 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weaker credit expansion [12] - Short-term loans for residents increased significantly, while medium- and long-term loans faced pressure, indicating a cautious approach to long-term borrowing [13]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy has emerged from deflation, and the government may not need to appoint strong proponents of reflation to fill upcoming vacancies on the central bank's board [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Honda Yoshihiro, an economic advisor to Prime Minister Suga, stated that inflation and rising government bond yields indicate that the economy is returning to normal [1] - The current challenge for Japan is to formulate a growth strategy, which is markedly different from the deflationary period during Abe's administration [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - Honda expressed that there is room for interest rate hikes this year by the Bank of Japan [1] - He does not believe it is necessary to appoint individuals who advocate for aggressive monetary easing as the new board members of the Bank of Japan [1] - This statement suggests that the current government may not obstruct a gradual increase in interest rates by the central bank, which is seen as essential to curb the undesirable depreciation of the yen [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in nickel prices driven by supply constraints from major production regions, with a notable reduction in export quotas for nickel mines expected in 2026 [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices rose by 2.93%, closing at $18,065 per ton, with a significant increase of $515 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a strong performance, with the main contract closing at 140,310 yuan per ton, up 3,150 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand balance in the nickel market is tight ahead of the Spring Festival, with domestic smelters reducing output due to maintenance, leading to a low circulation of spot supply [4] - Demand from downstream enterprises is strong as they actively replenish inventory before the holiday, contributing to a significant recovery in spot trading [4] - The nickel price is supported by dual drivers from the industrial chain, including strong demand from the new energy sector and stable demand from stainless steel [4] Group 3 - Leading companies in the nickel industry are expected to report improved earnings due to the current rise in nickel prices, benefiting from their resource advantages and integrated production capacity [4] - The recent downward trend in nickel prices has been reversed, indicating a potential for further price increases, with recommendations to focus on quality stocks in the industry [4] - Today's nickel price is predicted to continue its strong upward trend, supported by tightening supply, replenishment of demand, and macroeconomic recovery [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-12 节前或偏震荡 股指期货：节前缩量，涨价链领涨 股指期权：续持买权防御为主 国债期货：货币宽松预期⽀撑债市 股指期货方面，节前缩量，涨价链领涨。周三权益市场缩量震荡，建 材、有色金属为代表的涨价链领涨，传媒、硬件等方向弱势，市场风格出 现一定程度上的切换。个股方面，涨停家数较周二有所回落，结合量能跌 至2万亿附近，资金节前降低交易频率，预计节前维持震荡格局。另外， 针对是否持仓过节的问题，目前倾向中性仓位持有，从尾部风险角度来 看，前期风险主要来自于两个维度，一是商品波动而带来的连锁调整，二 是海外软件股回撤拖累科技股。而近期两大风险因素均有所缓和，其中贵 金属、有色金属波动率整体下移，同时美国散户开始关注超跌的软件股， 目前判断出现流动性尾部风险的概率相对不大。 股指期权方面，续持买权防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡整理。期权方 面，各个品种市场成交额再度回落。相较于前两周市场波动下的流动性升 温，本周期权交投量能相对平稳。隐含波动率日内走势有所反弹，考虑到 节假日和行权日的临近，期权端的主体观点保持不变，仍建议 ...