当地时间11月24日，美国白宫发布声明表示，总统特朗普签署了一项行政命令，启动一项旨在利用人工智能（AI）变革科学研究方式、加速科学发现的全 新国家计划"创世纪计划"（Genesis Mission）。 特朗普的AI野心，AI竞赛升级为国家战略 特朗普在任期内多次强调人工智能的战略价值，并将其发展作为本届政府的首要任务。"创世纪计划"也是其关于AI的最新重磅政策。 上述政策或将减轻监管负担，让企业更容易建立人工智能基础设施和数据中心。这也进一步强化了美股AI巨头的增长预期。受利好影响，美股AI板块集体 彪涨。当地时间11月24日收盘，AI领域定制化ASIC芯片龙头博通（AVGO.US）上涨11.1%；存储芯片巨头美光科技（MU.US）上涨近8%；谷歌 （GOOGL.US）上涨6.31%。 除了特朗普科技雄心之外，美联储降息预期在显著升温，这无疑也是推动资本市场回暖的关键因素之一。 近日，美联储官员戴利表态支持12月降息。戴利认为美联储可以将通胀率降至2%的目标，而就业市场突然恶化的可能性更大。 美联储理事沃勒也主张在12月降息，并表示9月份就业数据可能会被下修。沃勒目前是下一任美联储主席的候选人之一，据悉，大 ...

格隆汇11月25日｜由于近期供应紧张以及美国联储下月再次降息的预期上升，铜价小幅上涨。铜期货周 二上涨至每吨约10,860美元，此前一个交易日持平。在美联储理事沃勒因美国劳动力市场疲软而主张降 息后，人们对进一步货币宽松的信心增强。铜还在供应紧张方面得到了支持。现货铜价与三个月期货的 价差飙升至每吨20美元以上，创下约五周以来的新高，这表明交易商愿意为获得即时供应支付更高的价 格。 ...

上周，日本经济拉响警报，再度出现负增长。数据下滑的直接原因是美国关税政策对日本汽车等支柱产业出口造成打击。同时，日本经济长期积累的结构 性矛盾与短期政治风险交织，使得高市早苗政府试图通过大规模财政刺激"破局"的举措显得力不从心。 面对经济困局，高市早苗政府11月21日召开临时内阁会议，批准了规模达21.3万亿日元（约合1354亿美元）的经济刺激计划，旨在应对物价上涨，并扩大 半导体、人工智能、造船业等领域的投资。然而，这一方案核心依赖财政扩张与货币宽松，并未触及经济结构改革。 11月17日，日本内阁府公布的初步统计数据显示，今年三季度，日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年一季度以来再次出现负 增长，直接诱因是外需急剧收缩。数据显示，外需对三季度日本经济增长的贡献为－0.2个百分点。 今年以来，美国对日本输美商品加征关税，尤其是将汽车关税从2.5%提升至15%，令日本相关产业遭遇重创，特别是汽车产业链上下游的订单萎缩和经济 衰退形成恶性循环。 10月28日，在日本东京的首相官邸外，示威者手举标语表达对特朗普访日的强烈不满，贾浩成摄（新华社） 内需不振也是日本经济长期低迷的主因之一。 ...

11月20日早盘，日本金融市场止跌反弹，但是这并不代表高市早苗给日本经济造成的风险溢出效应会逐 渐消失。 在美国金融市场重大调整的时间点，高市早苗轻率挑衅中国这个日本最大贸易伙伴、第一大进口来源 国、第二大出口目的地和第二大债权国，势必让日本付出更大的经济代价。 近期高市早苗的一番闹剧式表演，让日本经济挂上了新一层寒霜。 据经济日报报道，11月17日，日本内阁府公布三季度GDP，按年率计算下降1.8%，为六个季度以来首 次萎缩。日本金融市场出现股债汇"三杀"，20年期国债收益率创1999年以来最高水平。 11月18日，日本金融市场再现股债汇"三杀"。日经225指数暴跌3.22%，日元对美元汇率当天一度下跌至 1美元兑换155.38日元，创今年1月以来最低水平。30年期国债收益率升至3.28%。 11月19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计下跌2700多点。 日本金融市场的震荡，是日本国内经济低迷，高市早苗财政刺激和货币宽松计划引发市场抛售美元，美 国金融市场抛售科技股、加密货币和黄金等多重因素叠加的结果。其中，高市早苗的妄语妄行毒化了中 日关系，也是新生的市场重大风险。 高市早苗是在做空日元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].

Jul-08 the first and the first the first to the state of th （作者薛洪言为星图金融研究院副院长） 时近2025年尾声，全球资本市场正经历着罕见的复杂变局。经济复苏步伐不一，地缘政治扰动频发，货币政策转向在即，多重因素交织下，投资布局难度显 著加大。在此背景下，聚焦具备"强逻辑、高壁垒、稳需求"特征的优质赛道，已成为机构资金穿越宏观波动的关键策略。随着2026年，这一被业内视为"货 币宽松周期"与"产业升级浪潮"深度叠加的关键节点临近，一批政策支持明确、需求刚性突出且供应壁垒显著的行业，正凭借其"抗周期能力强、成长确定性 高"的核心优势，脱颖而出。 本文将深入剖析有色金属、电力设备、航空航天、生物医药及AI硬件五大高确定性赛道，从产业周期、政策红利、技术突破与供需格局等多维度，系统解 构其内在投资逻辑与价值实现路径，拟为投资者布局2026年提供一份清晰的行动指南。 一、有色金属：三重共振驱动资源品价值重估 2025年以来，申万有色金属指数累计上涨77.71%，领涨所有一级行业。这一强势表现并非偶然，而是货币环境、需求结构与供应刚性三重因素共振的必然 结 ...

美元方面，美联储计划大幅缩减检查人员对银行安全稳健性的监管范围，引发市场关注。在人事方面，特朗普暗示美联储主席人选已确定，并抱怨解雇鲍威 尔遭遇阻力。财长贝森特表示，特朗普可能在圣诞节前宣布下一任美联储主席提名。 英镑方面，政治不确定性有所上升。《泰晤士报》民调显示，近半数工党选民希望首相斯塔默在下次大选前离职。货币政策层面，英国央行首席经济学家皮 尔强调不应忽视通胀持续高于目标的情况，预计未来通胀将逐步回落。货币政策委员会认为中性利率水平介于2%到4%之间。 日元方面，日本政府经济战略顾问表示，日本央行在明年3月前不太可能加息。今日日本央行行长植田和男、财务大臣片山皋月和经济大臣城内实举行三方 会晤，商讨经济政策。植田和男在与高市早苗会晤后表示，央行仍在逐步调整货币宽松力度，暗示加息意图明确但将采取渐进方式。 货币政策层面，里士满联储主席巴尔金支持鲍威尔观点，认为12月降息并非既定事实。监管方面，美联储理事巴尔担忧放松监管可能导致风险积聚，为未来 危机埋下隐患。 ...

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市场依然维持震荡格局，沪指在4000点上下拉锯。上周一与上周四沪指表现强势，一度试图向上突破；然而市场未能形成持续的做多动能，上周五受外围 市场大跌影响，沪指再度回调，失守4000点。上周顺周期方向表现活跃，创业板和科创50均累跌超3%。 经济数据方面，上周公布10月社融和经济数据。 10月新增人民币贷款2200亿元，同比少增2800亿元；10月新增社会融资规模为8150亿元，同比少增5970亿元。 10月社融数据整体表现偏弱：新增信贷和社融规模双双不及预期，也低于季节性常态。从结构上看，居民部门信贷再度收缩，呈现"去杠杆"特征，短期与 中长期贷款同比均有所回落；企业部门信贷虽实现同比多增，但主要依赖票据融资支撑，政策性金融工具对实体信用扩张的拉动作用尚未充分显现。政府 债券成为拖累社融的主要因素，但随着后续地方政府专项债结存限额的加快使用，该项压力有望逐步缓解。根据国盛证券分析，需求不足的问题仍然突 出。往后看，货币宽松还是大方向，降准降息可期、节奏上"相机抉择"，紧盯基本面的变化。 10月工业增加值同比4.9%（前值6.5%），社零同比2.9%（前值3%）；1-10月固投同比-1.7%（前值-0.5%）， ...

Core Insights - Major hedge funds on Wall Street reduced their holdings in the "Big Seven" U.S. stocks during Q3 while increasing investments in software, e-commerce, and payment sectors [1] - The shift in strategy comes after a period of optimism regarding large tech stocks, which saw inflated valuations due to AI hype, but these valuations have since begun to decline [1] - The S&P 500 index rose nearly 8% and the Nasdaq 100 index increased by approximately 9% during the third quarter, indicating overall market growth [1] Fund Adjustments - **Bridgewater Associates**: - Significantly cut its Nvidia (NVDA.US) holdings by nearly two-thirds to 2.5 million shares and halved its Google (GOOGL.US) position to 2.65 million shares [1][2] - Reduced Amazon (AMZN.US) holdings by 9.6% to about 1.1 million shares and cut Broadcom (AVGO.US) shares by approximately 27% to 845,391 shares [1] - Increased exposure in software and payment sectors by adding positions in Adobe (ADBE.US), Dynatrace (DT.US), and Etsy (ETSY.US) [2] - **Discovery Capital**: - Established new positions in Google, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US), Cigna (CI.US), and Elevance Health (ELV.US) during Q3 [3] - Cleared out positions in several energy exploration companies while increasing holdings in Baker Hughes (BKR.US) and Ramaco Resources (METC.US) [4] - **Berkshire Hathaway**: - Reported holding Google shares valued at $43 and further reduced its Apple (AAPL.US) holdings [5] - **Balyasny Asset Management**: - Increased its Apple holdings significantly while reducing Amazon shares by about 41% [7] - Added positions in American International Group (AIG.US) and Allstate (ALL.US), and established a new position in American Tower (AMT.US) [7] - **Tiger Global Management**: - Substantially reduced its Meta (META.US) holdings to 2.8 million shares valued at approximately $2.1 billion and cleared out positions in Eli Lilly (LLY.US) and CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) [8] - Initiated new positions in Netflix (NFLX.US) and Klarna (KLAR.US) [8] - **Coatue Management**: - Followed the trend of reducing Nvidia holdings by 14.1% to 9.9 million shares and also cut positions in Tesla (TSLA.US), Amazon, CoreWeave (CRWV.US), and Arm (ARM.US) [9] - Increased investments in Microsoft (MSFT.US), Meta, and maintained a strong position in Alibaba (BABA.US) [9]