2025年9月，美联储决定降息25个基点，这是继2024年三次降息后，时隔九个月再次降息。考虑到2025 年8月，美国新增非农就业仅2.2万人，失业率上升至2.9%，客观上而言，美联储本次降息主要是应对就 业市场疲软的风险。 更为严重的是，美元作为全球储备货币的信誉也将受到冲击。当其他国家央行和国际投资者对美联储政 策的独立性和专业性产生怀疑时，可能加速推进货币体系多元化进程，寻求美元替代方案。 但深入分析其背后的政治、经济和制度逻辑，可以发现这一决策还蕴含着深刻的结构性变化和潜在风 险。具体而言，美联储正面临以下多重挑战。 如果统计偏差频繁出现，将严重影响美联储决策的科学性和公众信任度。 最后，美债市场信心和美元信誉可能承受系统性冲击。美联储独立性的削弱和政策可预测性的丧失，将 直接动摇国际投资者对美国货币政策稳定性和可信度的信心。 传统货币政策框架遭遇理论挑战，单一工具难以应对复杂局面。传统理论框架下，劳动力市场疲软通常 伴随通胀压力减小，应当实施宽松政策；而劳动力市场强劲时通胀压力上升，需要收紧政策。然而，当 前美国出现了劳动力市场疲软与通胀压力并存的罕见组合，同时劳动力市场呈现供需双降的"奇特平 衡" ...

Group 1 - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan in PSL, and a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, with no public market treasury transactions conducted [1][3] - According to a recent report by Founder Securities, the importance of price targets has significantly increased in the new monetary policy framework, indicating a shift in focus from quantity-based targets like M2 and social financing [1][3] - A notable observation is that around the second quarter of 2024, the volatility of short-term money market interest rates represented by DR001 and DR007 is expected to decrease, suggesting that the central bank is beginning to treat short-term policy rates as a core adjustment target [1][3] Group 2 - Founder Securities also noted that the central bank's recent monetary policy reports show a clear decline in focus on quantity-based targets, emphasizing a balanced approach to the use of quantity tools [3] - Despite the de-emphasis on quantity-based targets, the central bank continues to prioritize liquidity management as a crucial tool influencing interest rate trends, indicating that it has not abandoned the use of MLF as a core liquidity management tool [3] - In response to significant fluctuations in treasury bond rates, the central bank has temporarily ceased treasury transactions and has resumed using MLF as a primary liquidity management tool [3]

Group 1 - The new BIS president, Pablo Hernández de Cos, emphasized the importance of central bank independence for controlling inflation and enhancing public welfare [1][2] - De Cos stated that independence allows central banks to make decisions based on economic considerations without short-term political interference, thus protecting monetary policy from becoming a tool for government financing [1][2] - The recent firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [1] Group 2 - De Cos compared clear price stability targets, independence, and accountability to the anchor, hull, and mast of a "monetary policy ship," highlighting the need for a solid legal framework to support central bank independence [2] - He stressed the importance of sustainable fiscal paths for central banks to fulfill their mandates, noting that uncontrolled government debt undermines central bank independence [2] - De Cos identified global challenges such as geopolitical tensions, debt burdens, trade barriers, aging populations, AI impacts, and climate change, emphasizing the need for robust policy frameworks in uncertain times [2]

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研究报告称，8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议的讲话被市场视为货币转松的 "鸽派"信号。不宜 过度往过于"鸽"的方面解读鲍威尔的言论，其鸽派发言更多是对于近期非农数据下修的"条件式回应"，并不能构成对于年内降息次数和幅度的有 效保障。即便美联储于9月降息25个基点，也不代表这将是一系列货币宽松的起点。相反，在就业与通胀风险并存，政策目标矛盾的情况下，更 需要充分认识到美联储面临的挑战。如果经济"类滞胀"导致决策者首尾难顾，市场波动也将进一步加剧。 鲍威尔的意思是，在就业风险大于通胀时，美联储将倾向降息。但如果通胀风险超越就业，那么美联储仍可以使用同样的"反应函数"叫停降息。 中金公司认为后一种情况并非不可能：当前美国面临显著更高的关税和收紧的移民政策，这两类政策均有抑制供给和推高价格的效果，只不过 目前的影响还较为温和。如果后续通胀率的上升使其进一步偏离美联储2%的通胀目标，那么暂停降息将是更加合适的选择。 中金公司认为，在显著更高的关税税率与收紧的移民政策之下，就业与通胀风险并存，如果通胀风险超越就业，鲍威尔仍可以使用同样的"反应 函数"叫停降息。由此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market interpreted Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as a dovish signal for monetary easing, but the company believes it does not provide strong guidance on the sustainability and extent of rate cuts, rather clarifying the Fed's "reaction function" in response to employment and inflation risks [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Reaction Function - Powell indicated that the Fed would lean towards rate cuts when employment risks outweigh inflation risks. However, if inflation risks surpass employment concerns, the Fed could halt rate cuts using the same "reaction function" [5][9]. - The current environment of higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies creates a scenario where both employment and inflation risks coexist, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [4][5]. Economic Context and Risks - Powell acknowledged that structural shocks are impacting the economy, with higher tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies slowing labor growth. He emphasized that while monetary policy can stabilize cyclical fluctuations, it is largely ineffective against structural shocks [8][9]. - The Fed's revised monetary policy framework for 2025 emphasizes a balanced approach to employment and inflation, moving away from the previous average inflation targeting that allowed for higher inflation in pursuit of more jobs [5][9]. Comparison with Previous Guidance - Compared to his 2024 speech, Powell's current guidance reflects a lack of confidence in the ability to achieve the 2% inflation target, indicating a more cautious stance on monetary easing [6][7]. - The current economic situation is described as challenging, with inflation risks tilted to the upside and employment risks to the downside, contrasting with the more confident tone of the previous year [7][9]. Market Implications - The company suggests that the market should not overly interpret Powell's dovish comments as a clear signal for a series of rate cuts. Even if a 25 basis point cut occurs in September, it does not imply the beginning of a broader easing cycle [9]. - The potential for "stagflation" could lead to increased market volatility as the Fed navigates conflicting employment and inflation targets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cautiously lower policy interest rates in the short term, as indicated by Richard Clarida from Pinhao Investment [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference did not disappoint the market, and the revised monetary policy framework was not unexpected [1] - Clarida, who served as Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2018 to 2022, emphasized the Fed's long-term commitment to its dual mandate, with only minor clarifications made to the monetary policy framework [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Investment Management Company suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower policy interest rates in the short term, adopting a cautious approach [1] Group 1 - Richard Clarida, a global advisor at Pacific Investment Management Company, indicates that the recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole annual symposium did not disappoint the market [1] - Clarida, who served as Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2018 to 2022, states that the Fed has reaffirmed its commitment to its dual mandate while only making minor clarifications to its monetary policy framework [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cautiously lower policy interest rates in the near future, as indicated by Richard Clarida, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Richard Clarida's report suggests that the Federal Reserve's recent actions indicate a potential rate cut, but with a careful approach [1] - Market reactions to Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium were positive, reflecting satisfaction with the Fed's communication [1] - The Federal Reserve has reiterated its commitment to its dual mandate while making only minor clarifications to its monetary policy framework [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has shifted its monetary policy framework from "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) to "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT), reflecting the need to adapt to changing economic conditions and persistent inflation challenges [2][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Evolution - In the 1970s, high inflation in the U.S. reached 13.3%, prompting then-Fed Chair Volcker to raise interest rates to 20%, which ultimately led to a GDP contraction from 5.5% in 1978 to -1.8% in 1982 [2]. - Powell's tenure has seen a significant inflation surge post-pandemic, with the Fed's initial response being slow, as they underestimated the persistence of inflation driven by supply chain disruptions and demand recovery [4][5]. - The Fed's previous framework, established in 2020, was designed for low inflation and low interest rates, which became irrelevant as inflation surged to levels not seen in decades [7][8]. Group 2: New Monetary Policy Framework - The transition to FIT involves a more stringent approach to inflation targeting, reinstating the 2% inflation goal while allowing for proactive measures in response to inflation risks [10][11]. - Key modifications in the new framework include the removal of references to "employment shortfalls," allowing for preemptive actions against rising inflation, and a commitment to regular evaluations of the policy framework every five years [10][11]. - The FIT framework emphasizes a more generalized policy response, moving away from the low-rate world assumptions, and acknowledges uncertainties related to tariffs, supply chains, and neutral interest rates [10][11]. Group 3: Legacy and Future Implications - Powell's legacy may include the formal closure of the FAIT framework, the modernization of the Fed's toolkit, and the institutionalization of policy reviews, which are seen as sustainable assets for future monetary policy [13][14]. - The new framework aims to establish a more robust inflation anchor while allowing for flexibility in response to economic shocks, with expectations of a world characterized by moderate inflation and higher neutral rates [15][16]. - The Fed's approach is shifting towards a more data-driven model, focusing on leading indicators and allowing for timely adjustments to monetary policy, which reflects lessons learned from the pandemic era [16].

来源：滚动播报 8月22日，美联储公布了其五年一次的货币政策框架审查结果。该框架是一份旨在指导其货币政策决策 的战略文件。 1、政策制定者澄清了2020年的一项转变，即官员们不会在失业率较低时加息以抑制潜在 通胀。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，官员们一致认为，货币政策决策不应"仅仅"基于他们对长期失业率应稳 定在何处的估计。但他表示，2020年的这一变化从未旨在"永久放弃"在劳动力市场因预期通胀上升而强 劲时加息的能力。 2、官员们删除了表示他们只会应对充分就业"不足"的措辞。长期目标和货币政策战 略声明现在更加明确地指出，"就业率有时可能高于对充分就业的实时评估，但这并不一定会对物价稳 定造成风险"。 3、美联储官员重申了2%的通胀目标以及稳定通胀预期的重要性。但政策制定者放弃了 2020年推出的"补偿策略"方案，该方案要求容忍高于目标的通胀，以弥补低于目标的时期。 4、该战略 文件现在表示，"货币政策战略旨在促进广泛经济条件下的充分就业和物价稳定。" 鲍威尔表示，这与 之前将低利率描述为"经济格局的决定性特征"的措辞形成了鲜明对比。 该框架的更新已获得联邦公开 市场委员会（FOMC）的一致批准，官员们表示，他们计 ...