1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has increased due to the in - line US August PCE data, and precious metal prices are in a strong - side consolidation. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, suggesting support for precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payroll data released on Friday [6][9][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The price of US gold continued its strong - side consolidation. As of last Friday, it closed at $3,790 per ounce, up 1.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3,850, and the lower support level is $3,700 [6] - The price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly gain of 6.9%, closing at $46.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $45, and the upper resistance level is $48.5 [9] 3.2 Weekly View - Due to factors such as the in - line US August PCE data, the downward revision of the total non - farm employment in March, the indication of two more rate cuts in the dot - plot of the FOMC meeting, market expectations of monetary policy easing have increased. The precious metal prices are expected to be supported at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payroll data released on Friday [11] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - No specific text summary information provided, only charts are shown 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The annual rate of the US August PCE price index was 2.7%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 2.6% [26] - The final quarterly annualized rate of the US second - quarter real GDP was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3% [26] - The preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI was 52, in line with expectations and slightly lower than the previous value of 53 [26] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The overall US August PCE data increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with market expectations and slightly higher than the previous value. The market is still betting that the Fed will cut rates in October, with an 86% probability [27] - The annualized growth rate of the US second - quarter GDP reached 3.8%, the fastest in nearly two years. The expected growth rate of the third - quarter GDP is generally around 2.5%. US consumer spending in August increased by 0.6%, exceeding expectations [27] 3.6 Inventory - For gold, the COMEX inventory increased by 15,019.10 kg to 1,242,473.18 kg this week, and the SHFE inventory increased by 8,397 kg to 65,826 kg [13] - For silver, the COMEX inventory increased by 195,990.93 kg to 16,495,571.19 kg this week, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,177 kg to 1,158,266 kg [13] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC speculative funds in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13][35] - As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC speculative funds in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13][35] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (October 1), at 22:00, the US September ISM manufacturing PMI will be released [37] - On Friday (October 3), at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in US September non - farm payrolls and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 834.22 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.10% and a trading volume of 170,217 lots [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on September 12 is quoted at 830.80 CNY per gram, reflecting a discount of 3.42 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the month-on-month CPI rose by 0.4%, slightly above the expected 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The latest data indicates that the core CPI in the U.S. is 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with expectations and previous values [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [1][2] - The European Central Bank has maintained its current policy for the second consecutive meeting, suggesting that inflation pressures are effectively contained and the Eurozone economy remains stable [2]

Macro News - On August 12, the Shanghai gold futures price was reported at 777.18 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.97%. The opening price was 777.52 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 778.78 CNY and a low of 775.62 CNY [1] - Following a statement from U.S. President Trump that "gold will not be subject to tariffs," precious metal prices experienced a significant drop. As of the report, COMEX gold futures fell by 2.78% to 3394.1 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 2.29% to 37.66 USD per ounce [1] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that gold imports would be subject to tariffs, which could have profound implications for the global gold market if the ruling is upheld [1] Institutional View - In the long term, precious metal prices are expected to operate with a volatile upward trend. The combination of risk premium and policy easing is driving gold prices to break through previous highs. Key technical levels to watch include the ability to maintain above 3500 USD per ounce, with 3400 USD per ounce likely forming a solid technical base [2] - Silver is expected to follow the upward trend of gold, effectively breaking through the critical resistance level of 38.5 USD per ounce. If it stabilizes at this level, the price may challenge the 39 USD per ounce mark due to recovering industrial consumption sentiment and financial attributes [2]

Group 1: Tariff War and Economic Implications - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and weapons, which he claims is for profit [1][3] - Trump threatened additional punitive tariffs on India, stating that if India continues its current purchasing behavior, a 25% import tariff would be imposed [3] - India's government responded by emphasizing that its oil imports from Russia are part of long-term contracts and are necessary for stabilizing energy costs for consumers [4] Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Trump accused the U.S. Labor Department of manipulating employment data to favor Democrats, leading to his decision to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] - The recent non-farm payroll report showed only a 73,000 increase in jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [8][9] - The disappointing employment data has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to a spike in market volatility and increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [9][10] Group 3: Precious Metals Market Trends - Following the employment report, gold and silver prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.85% to $3428.6 per ounce [8] - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 94.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [8] - Analysts predict that if the U.S. economy continues to weaken, it could lead to a favorable environment for precious metals, with gold prices potentially breaking above $3500 per ounce in the second half of the year [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which remains unchanged, leading to a significant price drop in gold futures [1][2]. Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to a stronger dollar index, which may negatively impact gold and silver prices [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding tariffs on imports from India and potential sanctions on Russia, are increasing market risk aversion [2]. - Despite expectations of a rate hold, high interest rates and persistent core inflation in the U.S. are keeping real yields and the dollar index strong, which is bearish for precious metals [2]. Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.46 billion last week, with a total net inflow of $8.5 billion year-to-date, indicating strong institutional interest in gold during price corrections [3]. - In China, despite a record high in gold prices, major funds have seen significant net redemptions, totaling approximately 3.2 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high [3]. - The outlook for gold prices may improve if the Federal Reserve provides clearer signals regarding future rate cuts, potentially aligning overseas and Chinese capital flows [3]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term resistance for gold prices is noted due to resilient U.S. economic data and reduced inflation risks, with the Fed not in a hurry to cut rates [4]. - In the medium to long term, gold prices are expected to rise due to anticipated declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, strong physical demand, and limited growth in gold supply [4].

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements in the second half of the year, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while boosting consumption and promoting domestic circulation [1] - The Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately easing monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [2] - The meeting outlined five key strategies, including monetary easing, promoting consumption, advancing reforms, expanding openness, and risk prevention, with a specific mention of stabilizing the capital market [3] Group 2 - The State Council announced a budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for a new childcare subsidy program, which is expected to stimulate consumer spending and support optional consumption [6] - The average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans in the second quarter of 2025 was reported at 3.09%, a slight decrease from 3.11% in the first quarter [9] - The China Coking Industry Association announced a price increase for various types of coke starting July 31, aimed at improving the industry's profitability [10] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China reported significant growth in cross-border financial activities in Hainan, with the establishment of 273 new EF accounts and a total business volume of approximately 917.97 billion yuan [14] - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" achieved over 700 million yuan in box office revenue, ranking among the top five films of 2025 [15] - The successful launch of low-orbit satellites for satellite internet in China marks a significant advancement in the industry [16] Group 4 - Companies such as XGIMI Technology reported a projected net profit increase of over 20 times for the first half of the year, indicating strong performance [18] - Jinhe Biology and Changjiang Electric Power also reported substantial net profit growth for the first half of the year, with increases of 51.52% and 14.22% respectively [18] - However, companies like Zhongwang Software faced legal challenges, highlighting potential risks in the industry [18]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the price trends of silver and platinum may align closely with those of gold [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's forecast suggests a correlation between the price movements of silver, platinum, and gold [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the price trends of silver and platinum may align closely with those of gold [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates a potential correlation between the movements of precious metals, particularly highlighting the similarities in price behavior [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council predicts an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with a potential rise of 20% in 2024, leading to historical highs in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investment demand amid a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Analysts expect gold prices to consolidate with a slight upward potential of 0%-5% in the second half of 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - In a bullish scenario, gold could rise by 10%-15% in the second half of 2025, potentially ending the year with a nearly 40% increase [5] - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, gold prices could retract by 12%-17%, resulting in a lower double-digit or single-digit return for the year [6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The performance of gold in 2025 has been remarkable, with a nearly 26% increase in the first half, attributed to a weak dollar, anticipated interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Increased demand from OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs has led to a record average daily trading volume of $329 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold at a strong pace, contributing to a 41% increase in total assets under management in gold ETFs, reaching $383 billion [2] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The macroeconomic outlook suggests global GDP will remain below trend, with inflation rates potentially exceeding 5% in the second half of the year [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high, contributing to a generally uncertain market environment [4][5] - The weak performance of the dollar, which has seen its worst annual start since 1973, has further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 4: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand is anticipated to significantly outpace consumer demand, especially in a risk-averse environment [5] - The current net long positions in COMEX futures indicate substantial room for further accumulation if market conditions worsen [6] - The potential for new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, could provide additional support for gold prices [7]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a strong performance, with silver futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.90% [1] - The main contract for silver opened at 8784.00 yuan/kg, reaching a high of 8964.00 yuan and a low of 8781.00 yuan during the trading session [1] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected negative ADP employment data has raised concerns about the economy and increased the likelihood of quicker interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports precious metal prices [1][2] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, as discrepancies between this data and ADP figures could shift market expectations [2] - Current market sentiment indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut in July, influenced by the recent ADP data [2] - Analysts caution that while silver prices are trending upwards, the strength of this trend should be approached with caution, pending further economic data [2]