Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the North Certificate 50 index rising the most by 2.79%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [5][6] - The bond market saw a collective decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.84 basis points to 1.840% [10][13] - The fund market reflected the equity market's influence, with the equity fund index increasing by 0.71% and the secondary bond fund index rising by 0.06% [16] Equity Product Allocation Strategy Event-Driven Strategy - The joint announcement by three departments to boost consumption suggests a focus on consumer-related funds such as Jiashi New Consumption A and Industrial Bank New Generation Consumption [18] - The release of the "Action Plan for Enhancing Elderly Care Service Capacity" indicates potential investment in the healthcare sector, with funds like Jiashi Mutual Selection A and Penghua Medical Innovation A being highlighted [19] - The opening of the "Robot World" emphasizes investment opportunities in AI and robotics, with funds like Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing Upgrade A and Jiashi Frontier Innovation being recommended [20] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including Anxin Dividend Selection A and Jiashi Hong Kong Internet Core Assets [21][26] - The dividend assets are highlighted for their value in a low-interest-rate environment, supported by national policies encouraging regular dividends from companies [21] - The technology growth direction is emphasized due to government support and the global trend towards AI development, making tech companies increasingly attractive [22][23] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The analysis indicates a continued net injection by the central bank, maintaining a loose monetary environment, which is favorable for the bond market [27] - Recent CPI and PPI data show a slight increase in consumer prices, while the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut aligns with expectations for a supportive monetary policy [28] - Recommended products include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond A, with a focus on maintaining a conservative risk profile [33]

【 宏观】美联储如期降息，开启技术性扩表——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评 美东时间 2025 年 12 月 10 日，美联储发布议息会议声明和经济预测表格（ SEP ），随后鲍威尔例行召开新闻发布会，我们认为主要有四处边际变化： 一 是美联储降息 25BP 基本符合预期，但是美联储内部分歧加大。 12 位 FOMC 投票委员中， 3 人反对， 9 人赞成，这是 2019 年以来首次美联储利率决议 遭到三名投票委员反对。此外，在美联储点阵图中， 12 月的对于 2026 年降息预测比 9 月份更离散，也反映内部分歧加大。 二是美联储对美国经济和通胀 边际上更加乐观。 根据经济预测表格，相对于 9 月份来说，本次美联储全面上修 2025 至 2028 年的 GDP 增速预测，下修了 2027 年失业率预测，同时全 面下修了 2025 年和 2026 年 PCE 和核心 PCE 预测，美联储对美国经济和通胀更加乐观。 三是美联储开启技术性扩表，主要为应对短期隔夜市场出现的 压力。 美联储会后宣布，将在 12 月开始扩大资产负债表，购买 400 亿美元的短期国债，购买规模预计会在几个月内保持高位，随后会显著缩减 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the cyclical resonance of the Kondratiev and Juglar cycles to capture long-term trend opportunities in asset allocation for 2026 [1][18] - It advocates for a defensive base using high-quality fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment to hedge against inventory cycle risks [1][18] - The article suggests that structural opportunities should be prioritized over total volume, avoiding real estate adjustments and traditional capacity clearance while embracing policy guidance and technological iteration [1][18] Strategy Implementation Rules - Clear planning for the next year's strategy is essential, balancing "strategy" and "action" to achieve the highest level of execution [19] - Understanding asset pricing fundamentals is necessary but not sufficient; strategies must focus on future pricing rather than past norms [20] - The core of investment lies in balancing risk and return, with a disciplined approach to risk management being paramount [20] 2025 Strategy Review - The restructuring of risk premiums was a significant change in asset allocation for 2025, transitioning from "conflict premium" to "repair premium" due to the stabilization of US-China trade tensions [22] - AI+ has emerged as a core technology driving structural opportunities across various sectors, enhancing production efficiency and demand scenarios [23] - A supportive funding environment characterized by abundant liquidity has facilitated the concentration of capital in high-certainty and high-growth areas [24] 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - The risk premium for Chinese assets is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan" and adjustments in US global competition strategies [27] - Liquidity conditions are shifting from abundance to structural adaptation, with a focus on high-certainty sectors [28] - The alignment of inflation and profitability is expected to highlight the value of yield strategies, making fixed-income assets a core choice for asset allocation [29] - The focus will shift from total economic volume to structural opportunities, with fiscal policy expected to play a more significant role than monetary policy [30] - The narrative-driven trading approach is anticipated to weaken, with market pricing returning to profitability verification as the core driver [31] - The strategy will evolve towards a focus on midstream industries, driven by policies that constrain supply and enhance profitability [32] 2026 Asset Allocation Conclusions - The effectiveness of the 2026 asset allocation strategy is rooted in the threefold resonance of declining risk premiums, rising profitability, and structural differentiation [14] - The allocation will emphasize yield strategies while focusing on midstream manufacturing and technology-enabled sectors [14] - Industry selection will hinge on three dimensions: certainty of profitability recovery, overseas business share, and adaptability to technological innovation [15] - Tools like ETFs will remain efficient vehicles for implementing strategies and capturing structural opportunities in niche areas [16]

Core Insights - Copart (NASDAQ: CPRT) is set to announce its earnings soon, with a current market capitalization of $40 billion and revenue of $4.6 billion over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $1.7 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.6 billion [2] Earnings Analysis - Historical data shows that Copart has had 19 earnings data points over the last five years, resulting in 7 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a 37% chance of positive returns [6] - The percentage of positive 1D returns increases to 45% when considering the last 3 years, with a median of 2.6% for positive returns and -1.8% for negative returns [6] Trading Strategy - A strategy to consider is to analyze the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns post-earnings announcements, as a positive 1D return suggests a potential long position for the following 5 days [7] - The correlation between 1D and 5D returns is noted to be the highest, which can guide trading decisions [7] Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Copart's post-earnings stock reactions, with historical data reflecting the performance of peer stocks that reported earnings just before Copart [7]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement sector's profitability is primarily driven by overseas performance, particularly in regions like Africa, where companies such as Huaxin Cement are seeing significant advantages [3] - Domestic demand and prices have weakened compared to Q2, indicating a potential bottoming out in 2024, with supply-side restrictions being a key focus for industry improvement [3] - Shareholder returns are expected to improve due to industry stock incentive plans [3] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - There is a noticeable divergence in revenue growth rates among various sub-sectors and companies within the consumer building materials industry, influenced by real estate and local debt issues [4] - Companies are exploring new revenue paths through overseas expansion, market penetration, and renovation projects [4] - Price recovery and structural upgrades in the paint and waterproofing sectors are leading the way, although full realization will take time [4] Group 3: Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass industry is experiencing dual differentiation in production and sales, with larger companies maintaining better performance amid price wars [5] - The glass sector is nearing a turning point, with float glass prices stabilizing and photovoltaic glass showing signs of recovery due to industry self-discipline in production cuts [5] - The market characteristics of the glass sector, dominated by private enterprises, contribute to a more effective market-driven clearing mechanism [5]

Core Viewpoint - The National Social Security Fund Council reported that in 2024, local pension funds generated investment returns exceeding 100 billion yuan, reflecting a robust investment strategy and positive market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Pension Fund Performance - In 2024, the total assets of the basic pension insurance fund reached 28,396.52 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 5,046.49 billion yuan, resulting in total equity of 23,350.03 billion yuan [2][3]. - The local pension fund achieved an investment return of 1,056.88 billion yuan, with an investment return rate of 5.52%, and a cumulative investment return of 4,123.59 billion yuan since its operation began in December 2016 [3][4]. - The risk fund, which started operations in 2023, reported a return of 3.32 billion yuan in 2024, with a return rate of 3.46% [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Social Security Fund Council adopted a flexible investment strategy, focusing on early investments to capture returns, while maintaining a stable equity exposure in the stock market [2][3]. - The investment strategy includes a comprehensive asset allocation system that encompasses strategic and tactical asset allocation, as well as asset rebalancing [3]. Group 3: Fund Contributions and Growth - In 2024, local pension funds received net contributions of 4,055.44 billion yuan, with significant contributions from both enterprise employees and urban residents [4][5]. - The total number of insured individuals in the basic pension insurance system reached 1.072 billion by the end of 2024, with a participation rate exceeding 95% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the need for a shift in investment strategies towards high-tech sectors rather than traditional sectors like liquor, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on alcohol for economic growth [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Liu Jipeng, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, advocates for high-tech investments, stating that relying on liquor for revitalizing China's economy is insufficient [1] - The liquor sector has dominated the market for the past five years, but there is a call for diversification into high-tech investments [1] - High-tech investments are acknowledged to carry higher risks, and investors are encouraged to be selective and rational in their participation [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - A recent incident involving a senior investor questioning the profit forecasts of a leading optical module company led to a backlash from younger analysts, highlighting a generational divide in investment preferences [1] - The term "Old Deng" has emerged to describe investors who prefer high-dividend sectors like liquor and energy while being conservative towards technology growth stocks [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate level, reflecting its policy dilemma between a weak labor market and persistent inflation pressures [1] - Early initiation of a rate-cutting cycle could further elevate inflation expectations, while maintaining high rates for an extended period may suppress consumption and investment, increasing economic downturn risks [1] - For ordinary investors, this policy stance suggests that interest rates on savings products may remain stable in the short term, but mortgage rates will stay high, making repayment pressures difficult to alleviate [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend, with the "Evening Star" pattern prompting a drop below 1.3500, increasing the likelihood of testing the convergence of the 100-day and 50-day moving averages around 1.3477/63 [2] - A daily closing price below this convergence would clear the path for testing the low of 1.3332 from September 3, while a closing price above 1.3600 could reinforce the rationale for challenging the annual peak of 1.3788 [2]

Overall Performance - The average seven-day annualized yield of RMB public cash management products is 1.447% as of September 4, 2025, while USD cash products have an average yield of 3.942% [5] - There are a total of 4,922 RMB public cash management products, with only 55 products (1.1%) yielding over 2% in the past six months [5] - 1,561 products (31.7%) fall within the yield range of 1.5% to 2%, while three products yield below 1% [5] Highlighted Product Analysis - The top three products in terms of average seven-day annualized yield over the past six months are "Qiyuan Cash No. 5 J" and "Qiyuan Currency No. 2 (ESG Theme) F" from Su Yin Wealth Management, and "Cash Management Product No. 83 D" from Huaxia Wealth Management, with yields of 2.897% and 2.809% respectively [6] - "Qiyuan Currency No. 2 (ESG Theme)" focuses on low-risk assets such as bank deposits and repos, utilizing moderate leverage and a tiered strategy to maintain static returns amid declining market interest rates [6] - Huaxia Wealth Management's "Cash Management Product No. 83 D" capitalizes on high bond yields and employs leverage strategies while maintaining liquidity through cash and easily convertible assets [6]

Core Insights - CITIC Securities reported a record high net profit of 13.72 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, achieving over 20% year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit, leading the brokerage industry in performance [1][2] - The company emphasized its commitment to international expansion, with international business revenue increasing by 53% and net profit rising by 66% compared to the previous year [2][3] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached approximately 33.04 billion yuan, up from 27.43 billion yuan in the same period last year, marking a growth of 20.44% [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.72 billion yuan, a significant increase from 10.57 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 29.83% [2][4] - Major business segments showed strong performance: - Brokerage business revenue was 9.32 billion yuan, up 21.11% - Asset management revenue reached 6.02 billion yuan, increasing by 22.32% - Securities investment revenue was 14.50 billion yuan, growing by 8.15% - Securities underwriting revenue was 2.05 billion yuan, up 19.16% [1][4] Strategic Outlook - The company addressed investor concerns regarding potential mergers and acquisitions, stating that it will maintain strategic focus and enhance competitive advantages despite increasing market pressures [3] - In terms of asset allocation strategy, CITIC Securities plans to actively manage market risks and deepen forward-looking research to ensure stable returns [3] - The company also highlighted the importance of optimizing risk control systems in securities investment, aiming to enhance proactive risk assessment [3] Dividend Announcement - CITIC Securities announced a cash dividend plan of 2.9 yuan per share, totaling 4.30 billion yuan, which represents 32.53% of the net profit for the period, aimed at boosting investor confidence [6]