2026 年 01 月 06 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260106 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260106 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6400 | 6476 | -76 | PF01-02 | -62 | -38 | -24 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6462 | 6514 | -52 | PF02-03 | 6 | -42 | 48 | | | 短纤2603 | 6456 | 6556 | -100 | PF主力基差 | રેં રે | 31 | 22 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 173239 | 242013 | -68774 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.515 | 6. 545 | -30 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 153152 | 166489 | -13337 | 短纤产销率 | 53% | ...

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 2025 年 12 月 31 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,915 | 200 | 135 | -215 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） Si2605持仓量（手） | 366,201 | -16,214 | 14,776 | 168,310 | | | | | 216,220 | -4,845 | 2,444 | 4,421 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） PS2605成交量（手） | 57,890 | 1,390 | -1,335 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,713 83,335 | -26,715 -12,296 | -110,600 -48,268 | - - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -35 | 0 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 29 日 铂：多头情绪仍然饱满 钯： 震荡上行 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | | | | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 705. 30 | 铂金期货2606 | | | | 2. 67% | | 662. 15 | 金交所铂金 | | | | 11. 99% | | 2513. 90 | 纽约铂主连(前日) | | | | 10. 60% | | 2459. 50 | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | | | | 9.17% | | 515. 65 | 纪金期货2606 | | | | -2.53% | | 429.00 | 人民币现货纪金 价格 | | | | 3.13% | | 2, 060. 50 | 纽约兜主连(前日) | | | | 13. 15% | | 1.925.00 | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | | | | 11. 69% | | 昨日成交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: p-Xylene, PTA, rubber, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][10][79] - **Neutral Trends**: MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, short fiber, bottle chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene [2][15][25] - **Negative Trends**: None 2. Core Views - **PX**: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite polyester factory plans to cut production, the tight supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short term [8]. - **PTA**: Supply tightens, cost support is strong, and the unilateral trend is upward. The PX price continues to rise, squeezing downstream profits [8]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The current valuation is low, but the high operating rate and high port inventory restrict price increases [9]. - **Rubber**: The market is oscillating strongly. Although the price of Thai glue has declined, the cup rubber price is relatively firm, and the raw material price in Yunnan is stable [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a weak current situation but has strong future expectations, entering an oscillatory pattern. The previous rise was due to improved butadiene fundamentals and strong far - month expectations, but the current fundamentals have weakened marginally [15]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable. The overall supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in refinery operating rates and inventory rates [17][26]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot trading has declined. The raw material price is oscillating, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply side has some new production and maintenance, and the medium - term supply - demand pressure is still large [27][28]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is compressed again, and the market is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [30][31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating. The pulp price has increased weekly, but the intraday price is stable. The futures and spot markets show differentiation, and the port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The downstream demand is average, and the float glass factory is mainly focused on shipping at a price - for - volume strategy [47]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the spot price shows a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Urea**: The medium - term price center will move up. Although the production has gradually recovered, the downstream demand lacks continuous upward momentum [55][57]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026, but there are also risks of downstream inventory back - pressure [58][61]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [63]. - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [66]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen slightly, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract is oscillating, and the far - month contract should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and freight rates are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics and market demand [81][93]. - **Short Fiber**: It is strong in the short term, and the processing fee is compressed. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is relatively stable, and the cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The current inventory is high, but it is expected to improve in 2026, and the price may show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [59][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: PTA device restarts and load reductions coexist, MEG operating rate increases slightly, and polyester load is at a high level [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA are 1, MEG is 0 [8]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is long - biased, and attention should be paid to multi - PX and short - downstream positions; PTA is long - biased, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and multi - PTA and short - downstream positions; MEG is bearish in the medium term [8][9]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price of Thai glue has declined, and the cup rubber price has increased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The refinery operating rate and inventory rate have decreased slightly [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25]. - **Market Information**: The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 will decrease, the factory inventory will decrease, and the social inventory will increase [26]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has increased, and the open interest has increased. The basis is weak, and the spot price has increased slightly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material price is oscillating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large in the medium term [28]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is under pressure, and the spot price has increased slightly [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [32]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [31]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 2233, the spot price is 710, and the basis is - 14. The factory inventory has decreased [33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [36]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has increased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [40]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price has decreased slightly [47]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [47]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass price has decreased in some areas, and the downstream demand is average [47]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is stable, and the spot price has shown a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [53]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has increased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price is stable [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [57]. - **Industry News**: The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market price center has moved up [56][57]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, and the spot price has some changes. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026 [58][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [58]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has increased, and the spot price is stable [63]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is weak and stable, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general [63]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [70]. - **Market Information**: The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 4469, the spot price is 4480, and the basis is 11. The social inventory has increased [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [77]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [79]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the freight rate index has increased. The shipping capacity has changed, and the geopolitical situation affects the market [81][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [98]. - **Macro News**: There are new developments in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation and shipping operations in the Red Sea [90][91]. Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The short - fiber sales are light, and the bottle - chip market trading atmosphere has declined slightly [99][100]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [100]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [103]. - **Industry News**: The market price in Shandong and Guangdong is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is general [104][106]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased [107][108]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [108]. - **News**: The Jiangsu pure benzene port inventory has increased, and the Shandong pure benzene price has increased slightly [108].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the macro - risk appetite for iron ore is boosted again, and it will be in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 780.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32%. The position of I2605 was 534,905 hands, with an increase of 16,750 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of 65% Carajás fines (Carajas) was 874.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; 61.5% PB fines was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 61% Jimbobara fines was 748.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 56.5% Super Special fines was 677.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of 66% Langna ore and 65% Laiwu ore remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.6 yuan/ton to 108.0 yuan/ton; the basis against Jimbobara fines decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton to 49.6 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 18.0 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 79.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Jimbobara fines remained unchanged at 47.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 118.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7,859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6,043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

2025 年 12 月 11 日 短纤：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251211 瓶片：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251211 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 短纤趋势强度：-1；瓶片趋势强度：-1(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 短纤：今日短纤期货弱势下跌，现货方面大多工厂报价下调 50~150 元/吨，半光 1.4D 主流报价在 6400~6500 区间。贸易商及期现商进一步走低，成交放量，半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心多在 6100~6400 区间。 今日直纺涤短工厂销售一般，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 55%，部分工厂产销：60%、80%、70%、80%、 30%、30%、20%、50%、50%，50%。 瓶片：上游原料期货弱势下跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价局部下调 30-100 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交尚 可。1 ...

2025 年 12 月 05 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：单边高位震荡市 MEG：价格创新低，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 【市场动态】 PX：尾盘石脑油价格偏强维持，1 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 552 美元/吨 CFR。12 月 4 日 PX 价格下跌，一 单 1 月亚洲现货在 844 成交。尾盘实货 1 月在 839/850 商谈，2 月在 841/855 商谈。12 月 4 日 PX 估价在 845 美元/吨，较 12 月 3 日下跌 3 美元。 PTA：中国大陆装置变动：本周装置基本无变化，至周四 PTA 负荷在 73.7%。另根据 PTA 装置日产/（国 内 PTA 产能/365) 计算，目前 PTA 开工率在 79.3% 附近。 MEG：江苏一套 100 万吨/年的 MEG 装置近期已停车，停车时间将持续至 2026 年二季度。 据悉，美国一套 110 万吨/年的乙二醇装置降负荷运行至 7 成附近，此外一套 36 万吨/年的装置仍在检 修中，暂无明确重启时间。 | 期货 | PX ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc., and gives trend judgments and market analysis for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the rubber main contract fluctuated, trading volume decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. The prices of some overseas rubber varieties increased slightly, while the prices of some domestic import varieties decreased. The orders of tire sample enterprises weakened [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [5] Synthetic Rubber - **Trend**: Short - term event - driven upward with narrowing upside space [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber increased, trading volume increased, and the opening rate of cis - butadiene rubber increased. The price of butadiene increased, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased [10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [12] LLDPE - **Trend**: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LLDPE increased slightly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the inventory of upstream factories accumulated passively. The supply in the near - term is stable, but there is supply - demand pressure in the medium - term [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [15] PP - **Trend**: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][16] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PP fluctuated slightly, the basis weakened slightly, and the overall market trading volume decreased. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [18] Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Still under pressure [2][20] - **Fundamentals**: The price of caustic soda futures decreased, the basis increased, and the spot market was weak. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand is weak [20][21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [23] Pulp - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][25] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pulp increased, trading volume increased, and the net long position of the top 20 members increased. The basis decreased, and the spot market showed a slight improvement [26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [26] Glass - **Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][29] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of glass decreased slightly, the basis increased, and the spot price increased in some areas. The reduction in production capacity has improved market confidence, but overall trading is average [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [30] Methanol - **Trend**: Oscillating with narrowing upside space [2][32] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of methanol decreased slightly, the basis increased slightly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The port inventory decreased significantly, and there is high supply pressure in the short - term [33][35][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [37] Urea - **Trend**: The price center moves up, pay attention to inventory during the day [2][39] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of urea increased, the basis decreased, and the factory price increased in some areas. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the market is supported by fundamentals [40][41][42]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [42] Styrene - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: The price of styrene futures increased, the profit of non - integrated and integrated production increased, and the inventory pressure of downstream products was high. The short - term pure benzene market oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [43] Soda Ash - **Trend**: Little change in the spot market [2][46] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of soda ash increased, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general [46]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [46] LPG - **Trend**: Under pressure [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LPG decreased, trading volume decreased, and the opening rates of some related industries were stable. The price of CP paper goods decreased [49][54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [53] Propylene - **Trend**: The pattern remains loose [2][49] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of propylene fluctuated slightly, trading volume and positions changed, and the basis of some regions increased. The opening rate of PDH was stable [49]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [53] PVC - **Trend**: Oscillating at a low level [2][59] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PVC was at a low level, the basis was negative, and the spot price was stable. The supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and there is a production reduction expectation [57]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [58] Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Declined at night, weakness reappeared [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of fuel oil decreased, trading volume decreased, and the inventory of the whole market decreased. The spot price of fuel oil decreased [61]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [61] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Weakened in the short - term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillated narrowly [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased, trading volume decreased, and the inventory decreased. The spot price of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased [61]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [61] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Trend**: Short - term valuation repair continues, medium - term oscillating market [2][63] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of the container freight index (European line) fluctuated, the trading volume of the main contract increased, and the spot market freight rate of some shipping companies increased. The overall shipping capacity is not low [63][73][74]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [75] Short - Fiber - **Trend**: Supported by cost, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of short - fiber fluctuated, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The factory's trading volume decreased, and the sales rate decreased [76]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [77] Bottle Chip - **Trend**: Supported by cost, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of bottle chip decreased, the basis increased, and the spot price was stable. The market trading atmosphere was light [76][77]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [77] Offset Printing Paper - **Trend**: Oscillating at a low level [2][79] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of offset printing paper increased, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The demand in the social end has not improved significantly [79][80][82]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [79] Pure Benzene - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation [2][83] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pure benzene fluctuated slightly, the inventory of the East China port increased, and the price decreased slightly. The demand is weak in December and may improve after January [83][84]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [84]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report is titled "Pigs: Reducing Volume and Realizing, Industrial Logic Will Return", but no clear core view is presented other than basic data tracking [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 11,430 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - Sichuan spot price is 11,500 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton [1] - Guangdong spot price is 12,260 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 900 yuan/ton [1] Futures Prices - The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 11,495 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Live Hogs 2603 is 11,205 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Live Hogs 2605 is 11,925 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2601 is 49,893 lots, a decrease of 15,052 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 101,740 lots, a decrease of 5,802 lots from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2603 is 32,662 lots, an increase of 4,905 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 138,362 lots, an increase of 2,391 lots from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2605 is 13,115 lots, a decrease of 374 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 74,155 lots, an increase of 291 lots from the previous day [1] Spreads - The basis of Live Hogs 2601 is - 65 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of Live Hogs 2603 is 225 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of Live Hogs 2605 is - 495 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between Live Hogs 2601 and 2603 is 290 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 75 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between Live Hogs 2603 and 2605 is - 720 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for integer values, representing a neutral view [2]