2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪带动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪带动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 787.0 | 17.0 | 2. 21% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 464. 830 | 12. 205 | | | | | 昨日 ...

2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 22 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 772. 5 | 3.5 | 0. 46% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 451.574 | 11.185 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 19 日 鸡蛋：远端预期较弱 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,098 | -2.91 | 30,030 | -5,261 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,492 | -2.21 | 20,763 | 5,386 | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | -15 | 2 | | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -394 | -391 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.30 | 3.10 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.62 | 2.62 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.10 | 3.00 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.31 | 3.27 | | | | | | 最新 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After a period of oscillation, index futures still have support for a rebound [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: On August 14, the closing prices of major indexes were as follows: CSI 300 at 4173.31 (down 0.08%), SSE 50 at 2829.47 (up 0.59%), CSI 500 at 6429.85 (down 1.20%), and CSI 1000 at 6976.49 (down 1.24%). The corresponding futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF down 0.07%, IH up 0.46%, IC down 1.11%, and IM down 1.02% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 26,975 lots, IH by 20,405 lots, IC by 5,277 lots, and IM by 36,064 lots. In terms of open interest, IF increased by 5,578 lots, IH by 3,248 lots, IC decreased by 9,652 lots, and IM decreased by 6,229 lots [2] 3.2 Index Futures Base Spread - The base spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends over a certain period, as shown in the corresponding base spread charts [4] 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - For different index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM), the top 20 members' long and short positions had various changes, including increases and decreases in different contracts [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6] - **Important Drivers**: The central bank plans to conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, and the total outright reverse repurchase in August has exceeded the roll - over amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the roll - over amount after the 300 - billion - yuan MLF matures this month. The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated as the US July PPI soared year - on - year and环比, and some Fed officials opposed a large - scale rate cut [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.46% at 3666.44 after breaking through 3700 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. A - share trading volume reached 2.31 trillion yuan, up from 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. Most stocks fell, and certain sectors showed different performance trends [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. Pay attention to the premium - narrowing market. The macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 13,965 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the price of the LH2511 contract is 14,230 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the supply pressure is high due to the increase in the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms and the forced pig - holding of small - scale farmers, while demand growth is limited. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb the supply [3] - **Contract Features**: The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing [3] - **Market Structure**: There is a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 6,369 lots (up 41 lots), and the open interest is 21,908 lots (down 2,631 lots); the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 26,871 lots (down 3,086 lots), and the open interest is 60,882 lots (down 1,419 lots); the trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 9,819 lots (down 928 lots), and the open interest is 44,835 lots (up 218 lots) [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 95 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2511 contract is - 195 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2601 contract is 30 yuan/ton, the spread between the LH2509 and LH2511 contracts is - 350 yuan/ton, and the spread between the LH2511 and LH2601 contracts is - 545 yuan/ton [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1][8][12][16][19][20] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Covered Commodities: Iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, with wide-range fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Expected to show a moderately strong upward trend [2][16] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 807.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.38%. Open interest decreased by 41,863 lots to 230,026 lots. Imported ore prices rose, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) increasing by 9 yuan to 888 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,258 yuan/ton and 3,484 yuan/ton, up 0.96% and 1.40% respectively. Rebar open interest decreased by 7,237 lots, while hot-rolled coil open interest increased by 6,551 lots. Spot prices in major cities generally rose [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. In late July, the daily average production of crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, while the daily average production of steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 (moderately strong) for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,820 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan and 8 yuan respectively. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,110 yuan/ton and 6,124 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan and 12 yuan respectively. The price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree to 40.5 yuan/ton degree [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' ferrosilicon and silicomanganese procurement prices increased [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,162.5 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton, up 5.1% and 2.9% respectively. Open interest decreased for both. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed slight fluctuations. Trading volume and open interest also showed different trends. Spot prices in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 (moderately strong) [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for index futures is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On August 11, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. The trading volume of index futures increased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has warmed up. The total positions of all types of index futures also increased [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and its Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4122.51, up 0.43%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4116, up 0.37% with a basis of - 6.51; IF2509 closed at 4104.8, up 0.43% with a basis of - 17.71; IF2512 closed at 4075.2, up 0.48% with a basis of - 47.31; IF2603 closed at 4044.6, up 0.56% with a basis of - 77.91 [1] - **SSE 50 and its Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2789.9, up 0.03%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2788.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 1.5; IH2509 closed at 2789.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 0.5; IH2512 closed at 2791, up 0.06% with a basis of 1.1; IH2603 closed at 2790.4, up 0.10% with a basis of 0.5 [1] - **CSI 500 and its Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6391.76, up 1.08%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6368.2, up 1.02% with a basis of - 23.56; IC2509 closed at 6298.8, up 1.07% with a basis of - 92.96; IC2512 closed at 6144.6, up 1.18% with a basis of - 247.16; IC2603 closed at 6006, up 1.20% with a basis of - 385.76 [1] - **CSI 1000 and its Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6943.94, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6925.6, up 1.56% with a basis of - 18.34; IM2509 closed at 6851.2, up 1.61% with a basis of - 92.74; IM2512 closed at 6663.8, up 1.72% with a basis of - 280.14; IM2603 closed at 6478.8, up 1.71% with a basis of - 465.14 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 29586 lots, IH increased by 9620 lots, IC increased by 23858 lots, and IM increased by 55757 lots [2] - **Positions**: The total positions of IF increased by 14212 lots, IH increased by 6800 lots, IC increased by 9202 lots, and IM increased by 25544 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF, the long - position changes of different contracts varied, such as 623 lots for IF2508, 8267 lots for IF2509, etc. The short - position changes also differed, like 1360 lots for IF2508 [5] - For IH, the long - position changes included 557 lots for IH2508, 3754 lots for IH2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] - For IC, the long - position changes were - 549 lots for IC2508, 5137 lots for IC2509, etc. The short - position changes were also different [5] - For IM, the long - position changes were 1995 lots for IM2508, 11368 lots for IM2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: Before the US CPI data, the market was cautious. The Nasdaq rose and then fell. Lithium mining stocks soared, and gold was under pressure. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%. The market was active with more than 4000 stocks rising [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has weak cost support [1]. - Propylene shows short - term weak and volatile trends [2]. - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,823 yesterday with a - 0.83% daily increase and 3,825 at night with a 0.05% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,291 yesterday with a - 0.58% daily increase and 4,296 at night with a 0.12% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,480 yesterday with a - 0.22% daily increase and 6,463 at night with a - 0.26% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,525 yesterday with a - 0.40% daily increase and 6,525 at night with a 0.00% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 75,511 yesterday, a decrease of 8,218 from the previous day, and the open interest was 105,762, an increase of 2,838; for PG2510, the trading volume was 27,905 yesterday, a decrease of 7,248, and the open interest was 87,463, an increase of 2,060; for PL2601, the trading volume was 1,118 yesterday, a decrease of 804, and the open interest was 4,534, an increase of 108 [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 527 (previous day: 495); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 517 (previous day: 485); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 205 (previous day: - 234); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 194); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 219) [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.8% this week (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% this week (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% this week (last week: 48.8%) [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 6, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectations were propane at 526 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day) and butane at 496 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton); the October Saudi CP expectations were propane at 541 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) and butane at 511 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) [11]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, also with an undetermined end - date [12]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises have device maintenance plans, like Shengli Heavy Oil Plant in Shandong having a full - plant maintenance from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 and a loss volume of 400 [13].