中信证券研报成，反内卷政策叙事下，通胀预测框架需兼顾自上而下和自下而上两类逻辑。结合存款活 化率、地产销售等领先指标，以及三类主要工业品价格预测，2026年PPI同比或呈现稳步上行的走势； 综合猪价假设，国补退坡对非食品项影响测算，2026年CPI同比或震荡为主。预计全年通胀温和回升， 对债市影响或更多取决于是否有需求端政策增量。 ...

来源：中国经济网 美联储将于10月28日至29日召开联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。目前市场普遍预计，继9月降息 之后，美联储还将再降息25个基点，以支撑不断走弱的就业市场，同时将利率维持在足以把高通胀拉回 至2%的水平。 10月降息预期抬头 尽管由于美国政府停摆，美国部分关键宏观数据难以及时获得，但近几周美国官员们的一系列表态显 示，短期内利率下调的概率很高，而劳动力市场似乎是推动货币政策调整的关键因素。 美联储主席鲍威尔近日在费城出席全美商业经济协会举办的活动时表示，美国劳动力市场有进一步降温 的迹象。这一表态被外界解读为，美联储或在本月实施今年以来的第二次降息，以应对就业增长的急剧 放缓。 美联储最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（也称"褐皮书"）称，美国经济正处于通胀压力与劳动力市场走 弱并存的复杂阶段。虽然劳动力市场总体保持稳定，但多数地区更多雇主通过裁员或自然减员减少员工 数量，原因包括需求疲软、经济不确定性持续，以及对人工智能的投资增加等。 近期报告裁员的企业数量有所增加，这一情况也加剧了市场对于劳动力市场走弱的担忧。 美国圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆在国际金融协会（IIF）年会上表示，他倾 ...

I do want to welcome in our next guest though for a more macro look at what we have going on in our 20th day of the government shutdown. Now Eddie Gabbor joining us of course the owner of key advisors wealth management. Eddie, thank you for being with us.You know I'd love to just get some general market thoughts for you on how we're starting off this fresh week. >> So this market continues to be in a bullish trend and we think that's going to really continue through the first half of 2026. Now, here in the ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous rally of gold and stocks is unusual and may be driven by excessive liquidity in the market, rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [2][6][12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historically, gold and stocks tend to move in opposite directions, but currently, both are rising together, indicating a unique market condition [1][9] - The current market resembles the tech boom of 1999 and the inflationary environment of 1979, with significant liquidity fueling momentum trades across various market segments [2][4] - There is over $1.5 trillion in excess liquidity in money market mutual funds, a remnant of pandemic-era monetary policies [4][15] Group 2: Gold Demand and Investment Trends - Recent demand for gold has shifted towards ETF investments, with the last quarter seeing the highest inflows into gold ETFs ever recorded [3][10] - The increase in gold prices is not solely driven by traditional investors seeking a hedge but rather by retail investors participating in a liquidity-driven speculative frenzy [6][12] - The correlation between gold and stocks may lead to unexpected outcomes if market conditions change, particularly if inflation resurfaces and central banks withdraw liquidity [6][14] Group 3: Future Outlook - If inflation returns and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, both gold and stocks may decline simultaneously, contrasting with their current upward trend [14][15] - The current market environment is characterized as an "everything rally," where various asset classes are rising together, but this may not be sustainable in the long term [9][15]

While the market seemingly features no shortage of headline-driving news, one of the most consequential developments stemmed from the Federal Reserve. In September, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, making good on a widely expected move. Of course, gambits in monetary policy are never free, placing income-focused investors in a particularly difficult position.One of the primary difficulties is inflation. Alongside the remarkable ascent of the technology sector was one of t ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the bond market is influenced by factors such as trade tensions and inflation readings, with expectations for continued support from fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed improvement from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with fluctuations in risk sentiment affecting bond yields [2]. - On Monday, bond yields rebounded due to shifting risk sentiment following easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2]. - Tuesday saw a correction in the equity market, leading to a recovery in the bond market as risk appetite shifted [2]. - On Wednesday, inflation data had minimal impact on the bond market, with slight increases in bond yields [3]. - Thursday continued the recovery trend in the bond market, with long-term bond yields declining significantly [3]. Group 2: Credit Market Dynamics - Short-term credit bonds performed better this week, with yields decreasing by up to 6 basis points [4]. - The credit spread for short-term bonds also narrowed, with notable reductions in the spreads for AAA-rated bonds [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Bond Market Recovery - The recovery in the bond market is driven by three main factors: changes in U.S.-China trade relations, lack of inflationary pressure, and the need for supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - The upcoming APEC summit and potential new tariffs are expected to increase market uncertainty, boosting demand for bonds as a safe haven [5]. - Current inflation trends show no signs of recovery, with PPI and CPI data indicating stability but not upward movement, necessitating further policy support [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Insights - Recent fiscal policy updates include the introduction of new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting effective investment [7]. - The early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026 indicates a proactive approach to fiscal management, with an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year [7]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts and the resumption of bond purchases to support fiscal measures [8]. - The central bank's emphasis on detailed implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy suggests readiness for further actions in the fourth quarter [8]. Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The current environment indicates limited risk of rising bond yields, with a strong need for favorable interest rates to support fiscal supply, suggesting a continued basis for the bond market's recovery [9].

大宗商品研究、咨询和投资管理研究机构CPM Group的中国 区总经理曲硕表示，当前，影响金价的因素里，避险需求是核 心因素，其次是通胀、货币等次要因素。此外，还有制造业需 求带来的负面影响，美联储降息的影响也比较小。 作者： 刘颖 封图：图虫创意 2019年，国际金价开启新一轮上涨，疫情后突破2000美元/盎司；2021年至2023年，国际金价进入横向波动期，其中2022年受美联储加息预期影响出现 回调；2024年，国际金价有效突破2000美元/盎司，当年3月因地缘风险增加，年内一度上涨突破2800美元/盎司，年均价2600美元/盎司；2025年，国 际金价屡创新高，4月达3500美元/盎司，10月7日突破4000美元/盎司。 经济观察报：回调周期的影响因素有哪些？ 曲硕： 黄金回调多由市场恐慌性抛盘引发，也容易受到其他市场波动的影响。当市场出现挤兑事件时，恐慌情绪会快速蔓延，投资者会集中抛售各类 资产，黄金往往会被连带抛售。如2020年金价先跌至近1000美元/盎司，后逐步回升。 10月17日，伦敦现货黄金触及4380美元/盎司的历史高点后，出现震荡调整。最终，当日报收4251美元/盎司，下跌1.73%， ...

记者 刘颖 10月17日，伦敦现货黄金触及4380美元/盎司的历史高点后，出现震荡调整。最终，当日报收4251美元/盎司，下跌1.73%，但仍处于历史高位水平。 在这一波黄金暴涨行情中，有人选择了高位变现，有人追高入市。 作为穿越经济周期的传统避险资产，黄金价格的每一轮剧烈波动都与全球经济格局、地缘政治风险、货币政策走向等核心变量深度绑定。当前，金价的凌厉 涨势背后，是避险资金加速涌入、资产配置逻辑重塑与市场情绪共振的多重作用。 10月16日，大宗商品研究、咨询和投资管理研究机构CPM Group的中国区总经理曲硕就金价历史运行规律、当前核心驱动力量、产业端供需变化及普通投资 者应对策略等问题，接受了经济观察报记者的专访。 【对话】 经济观察报：从历史数据看，国际金价走势有哪些规律？近年来，金价的具体波动情况如何？是否存在上涨或回调周期？ 经济观察报：当前推动金价上涨的关键力量是什么？是否有数据支撑？ 曲硕：当前，影响金价的因素里，避险需求是核心因素，其次是通胀、货币等次要因素。此外，还有制造业需求带来的负面影响，美联储降息的影响也比较 小。 从避险需求来看，主要有三方面推动：一方面是美国总统特朗普的政策预期 ...

日本央行审议委员高田创表示，尽管存在政治不确定性，但提高政策利率的时机已经成熟。此番言论重 申了他上个月投下反对票、反对维持政策不变时的坚定信念。 曾是资深经济学家和债券分析师的高田创表示，今年早些时候美联储降息后日元未能升值，这是支持日 本央行加息的另一个因素。日元汇率持续疲软，徘徊在150关口附近。 "我相信，现在是提高政策利率的绝佳时机，"高田创周一在日本西南部广岛市向当地商界领袖发表演讲 时说。"日本那种曾经根深蒂固的（通缩）常态已经减弱，价格稳定目标已基本实现。" 高田创说："尽管美联储在2025年9月采取了降息措施，但日元并未升值，反而出现贬值。此外，日美两 国股市均处于历史高位，也营造了有利的市场情绪。" 这是高田创在提出加息建议后的首次演讲。他指出，日本的通胀水平已连续三年多超过日本央行的目 标，解决这个问题至关重要。他的言论表明，即便支持货币宽松政策的高市早苗本周极有可能成为日本 新任首相，他依然坚定不移地支持加息。 高田创表示，随着日本持续的通缩时代告一段落，当局需要改变策略。他说："我开始相信，我们必须 重点关注整体通胀水平，过去三年半里，该数据一直保持在2%及以上的水平，这种情况亟待解 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行(BOJ)委员高田创(Hajime Takata)表示，当前上调央行政策利率的时机已成 熟。他暂不考虑政治动荡因素，并重申了自己的立场——上月他就对维持政策不变的决议投了反对票。 周一，高田创在日本西南部广岛向当地商界领袖发表演讲时称："我认为现在是上调政策利率的绝佳时 机。"他指出，"日本曾根深蒂固的(低物价)常态已逐渐消退，物价稳定目标已基本实现。" 这是高田创在提出加息提议后首次发表公开演讲，他特别强调了"应对通胀率超央行目标已逾三年"这一 问题的重要性。尽管支持宽松货币政策的高市早苗本周极有可能当选日本下任首相，但高田创的言论表 明，他对加息的支持态度依然坚定。 高田创表示，日本持续通缩的时代已落幕，当局需转变政策方向。他称："过去三年半，整体通胀率始 终维持在2%及以上水平，我认为当前必须聚焦这一现状采取行动。" 在下次政策决议前的最后一场既定公开活动中，植田和男上周曾表示，日本央行的利率立场"完全"没有 改变，这一表态暗示他不排除10月加息的可能性。 高田创表示："尽管美联储在2025年9月采取了降息举措，但日元不仅未升值，反而出现贬值。此外，日 美两国股市均处于历史高 ...