来源：市场资讯 （来源：太阳投研札记） 洪灏在《展望 2026：持而盈之》上下篇中，从全球经济格局、中美市场表现、政策走向及资产配置等 多个维度，分析了 2026 年市场的风险与机遇，核心观点可总结为以下两大方面： 特朗普发起的全球贸易战未能改善美国贸易赤字，反而因中国制造业优势和稀土行业整合，让美国谈判 筹码不足；关税政策推高美国通胀预期，进一步复杂化美联储决策。 美国经济与市场：风险积聚，泡沫隐现 1. 货币政策失去独立性，陷入 "三难" 困境 美联储货币政策逐渐从属于美国财政政策，因美国政府债台高筑，美联储需通过购债为财政赤字融资， 其决策受经济增长、通胀高企和金融稳定三重矛盾制约。 美国回购市场流动性紧张，隔夜逆回购工具近乎归零，美联储大概率将停止量化紧缩并重启扩表，但扩 表方式（买短端 / 长端债券）将影响资产价格走势，短期利好市场，长期恐因久期问题难改美股冲高回 落趋势。 2.经济周期步入晚期，半导体与经济周期背离 量化模型显示美国经济未来数月将放缓，而半导体周期仍在冲高，美股涨幅集中于少数科技巨头和 AI 相关企业，市场宽度持续收窄，科技股估值已接近甚至超过 2000 年互联网泡沫水平。 美国私 ...

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Arthur Hayes 发推表示，美联储量化紧缩预计将于 12 月 1 日停止，美国银行 11 月贷款有所 增加，流动性出现小幅改善。他认为比特币将在 9 万美元下方震荡，或再探低至 8 万美元出头，但预计 8 万美元将企稳。他称可能开始小幅加仓，但真正的大规模操作将留到明年。 来源：市场资讯 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 锑价触底回升且明显反弹，关注锑相关投资机会 有色金属行业周报（2025.11.17 -2025.11.23） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：美联储 10 月会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否降息存在 较大分歧 美东时间周三（11 月 19 日），美联储公布了 10 月 28 日至 29 日的联邦公 开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。FOMC 在 10 月会议上以 10 比 2 的投票结 果通过了降息 25 个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 本周核心关注二：美国 9 月非农超预期，失业率升至 4.4%，降息预期降温 本周，美东时间周四，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国 9 月非农就业 意外大增 11.9 万人，显著高于市场预期的 5 万人，失业率从 8 月的 4.3%升 至 4.4%，创 2021 年以来新高。此外，7 月份非农新增就业人数从 7.9 万人 下修 7000 人至 7.2 万人；8 月份非农新增就业人数从 2.2 万人下修 2.6 万至 -0.4 万人。修正后，7 月和 8 ...

尽管标普500指数仅较历史高点回落数个百分点，但市场交易情绪已降至冰点。高盛首席交易员Brian Garrett表 示，周五虽录得100个基点的反弹，却被视为近年来"最失败"的反弹之一，交易台的氛围更像是市场跌停时的景 象。 高盛多项技术指标显示市场正处于危险区域：流动性随波动率上升而枯竭，标普500的Gamma值已转为负值， 防御性板块轮动加剧，系统性交易阈值被突破，波动率指标闪现恐慌信号。市场正呼吁美联储在12月降息。 主经纪商账簿数据显示，总敞口已达高位，投资者继续沿着防御性板块链条调整配置，主题策略团队总结 称："客户一直处于买入罢工状态，关键主题的不确定性导致更加防御性的姿态，资金流向偏向AI板块抛售和动 量对冲。" 系统性抛压：刚刚开始 这种情绪分裂在数据上表现明显。纳斯达克100指数平均日交易区间接近3%，标普500指数超过2%，而标普500 指数期权的日均交易量已达到3.5万亿美元的历史新高，超过整个罗素2000指数的市场总值。 尽管如此，部分积极因素正在浮现。高盛指出，经济增长担忧可能被过度放大，流动性状况有望改善，AI生产 力主题在客户对话中获得更多关注。许多客户将比特币等高贝塔资产视为风 ...

大家好，小编我呀，是一个爱扒关于美国时政的热心博主，今天就来聊聊华尔街缺钱的事情，可以说绝非偶然，而是三台 "超级抽水机" 同时发力的结 果。 第一台是马力最足的美国财政部，为填补巨额开支，国家债务已突破历史高位，2025 年第三季度就发行了超 2 万亿美元新国债。这些国债被银行、基金 疯抢，大量现金从市场流入财政部金库，直接抽干了流动性 "池水"。 第二台抽水机竟是美联储自己。为对抗此前的史诗级通胀，美联储从 2022 年起启动 "量化紧缩"—— 与 "量化宽松" 放水相反，它让此前购买的国债、 MBS 等资产到期后不再续投，相当于持续从市场回收资金。 两年多下来，银行存放在美联储的准备金从峰值 4.3 万亿美元降至 2.85 万亿美元，看似庞大的数字，对美国庞大的金融体系而言，已逼近危险临界点。 第三台则是国会的 "猪队友" 行为。不久前的政府关门闹剧虽草草收场，但期间大量联邦支出暂停，本应流向企业和个人的资金被卡在财政部，给本就紧 张的流动性雪上加霜。 在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内容。 文I不可史意 编辑I不可史意 前言 进退两难的危机 财 ...

美联储最新公布的消息显示，决策者们在十二月是否继续降息的问题上存在明显分歧。这揭示了美联储内部对于未来货币政策路径的激烈争论，令市场对十 二月降息的预期大幅降温。 这种分歧源于美联储内部对经济形势判断的不同。部分官员关注到劳动力市场正在逐步降温，而另一些官员则更担心通胀持续高于百分之二目标水平的问 题。核心通胀率居高不下，住房服务通胀率的下降被商品通胀率的上升所抵消，使得决策者们在平衡双重使命时面临艰难抉择。 此前政府长达四十四天的停摆进一步加剧了决策难度。关键经济数据的缺失导致决策者在十月会议上"像在大雾中开车"，只能依赖零散的私人机构数据和企 业调研。尽管部分数据已陆续恢复发布，但信息不完整的困境仍可能影响十二月的政策决定。 除了利率政策，美联储还在十月会议上讨论了资产负债表相关议题。决策者们一致同意自十二月起停止缩减美债和抵押贷款支持证券持仓的行动，结束自二 零二二年六月开始的量化紧缩进程。这一决定获得了广泛支持。 随着十二月会议的临近，美联储如何平衡这些相互矛盾的压力将成为市场关注焦点。决策者们需要在支持经济与抑制通胀之间找到恰当平衡，而内部共识的 缺乏无疑使这一任务变得更加复杂。 市场对美联储政策前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices tumbled this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market's trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The 10-year economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, and some economic indicators were notably affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market [7]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, A-share major indices and four stock index futures all fell. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices moving randomly. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction this year, causing A-shares to open high and close low. On Friday, the overnight slump in US technology stocks dragged down Asian-Pacific stocks. The trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. The allocation recommendation is to go long on dips [7]. Bonds - In October, the economic growth continued to slow down, and some economic indicators were affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, and it is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. The allocation recommendation is range-bound operation [7]. Commodities - China's October economic data, especially the continuous weakening of fixed asset investment, pressured industrial products. However, gold and crude oil showed a volatile trend. The subsequent commodity index is expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. The allocation recommendation is to mainly wait and see [7]. Foreign Exchange - The US government shutdown-delayed September non-farm payroll report was controversial. Fed officials' overall tone was neutral to hawkish, potentially supporting the US dollar. The euro weakened due to the strengthening US dollar, but the eurozone's fundamental situation continued to improve. The allocation recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [7]. Important News and Events - China notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. The Chinese government expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan and warned of countermeasures [13]. - Premier Li Qiang met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calling for free trade and reduced trade barriers, and proposed strengthening security cooperation and technological exchanges within the SCO [13]. - The Chinese and Japanese foreign affairs departments held consultations, with China expressing dissatisfaction with the results and demanding that Japan retract its wrong remarks [13]. - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences on interest rate cuts. Most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged this year, while some advocated a more relaxed rate policy. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [14]. - The US modified the rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign-backed enterprises. China will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [14]. - The Dutch government suspended the administrative order against Nexperia. China welcomed the move but hoped for a complete solution to the semiconductor supply chain issue [14]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data United States - The US 9-month unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest in four years. The number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the previous data was revised downward. Fed officials were divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased significantly [11]. Japan - Japan's inflation continued to be high, and the yen was weak. The GDP in the third quarter shrank for the first time in six quarters, and the new government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures [11]. Eurozone - The euro fell to a two-week low due to the strengthening US dollar. The eurozone's October CPI year-on-year growth rate met the policy target, and the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026 [11]. China - The central bank's net open market injection this week was 554 billion yuan. The 11-month LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The central bank will continue to reform and improve the LPR formation mechanism. If the fourth-quarter economic growth is significantly lower than expected, there is still room for LPR cuts [12]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - Next week, important economic data from Germany, the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and France will be released, including GDP, retail sales, unemployment rates, and CPI [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices tumbled collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock - index futures also declined, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices showing a random walk. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, leading to a high - opening and low - closing situation for A - shares. On Friday, the overnight plunge in US tech stocks dragged down Asia - Pacific stock markets. Market trading activity significantly declined compared to last week. Domestically, economic fundamentals were weak in October, and financial data showed a larger decline in M1 growth than M2. The unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy, and the market is expected to be in a random walk state with stock indices remaining volatile [5][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 dropped 3.74% this week, IH2512 fell 2.77%, IC2512 declined 5.15%, and IM2512 decreased 4.80%. Spot: The CSI 300 dropped 3.77%, the SSE 50 fell 2.72%, the CSI 500 declined 5.78%, and the CSI 1000 decreased 5.80% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on last month's interest - rate cut. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some believed a December rate cut "would likely be appropriate". There was near - unanimity on stopping the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The LPR remained unchanged on November 20. US September non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data 3.3.1 Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - Domestic: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13%, the STAR 50 declined 5.54%, the SME 100 decreased 5.10%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 6.15%. Overseas (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 dropped 2.90%, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.76%, the Hang Seng Index declined 5.09%, and the Nikkei 225 decreased 3.48% [15][16]. 3.3.2 Industry Sector Performance - Industry sectors all declined, with the power equipment and comprehensive sectors weakening significantly. Industry main funds generally had a net outflow, with a large net outflow from the power equipment sector and a small net inflow in the communication sector [19][23]. 3.3.3 Other Market Data - SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with the capital price at a low level. This week, major shareholders had a net secondary - market reduction of 11.471 billion yuan, and the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 100.946 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 814.515 billion yuan. The basis of IF and IH main contracts weakened slightly, while the basis of IC and IM main contracts converged [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock - index futures declined this week. The domestic economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy. The market is in a vacuum of macro - data, earnings, and policies, and is expected to show a random walk with stock indices remaining volatile [87].

Domestic Highlights - Hainan's free trade port is entering the final countdown for its closure on December 18, 2025, signaling a significant step in financial openness[12] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 18,649 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[9] - The fiscal expenditure for the same period was CNY 22,582 billion, up 2% year-on-year, indicating a stable fiscal environment[9] - In October, the foreign exchange market showed a surplus of CNY 1,194 billion in bank settlements, reflecting strong risk resilience amid international market volatility[11] International Highlights - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to declines in exports and private housing investment[16] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts, with a 67.2% market expectation for no rate change in December[19] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.04% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 2.38%[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities saw a week-on-week increase of 19.89%, although first-tier cities experienced an 8.51% decline[37] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9% year-on-year in the second week of November 2025[37]

普徕仕环球投资及亚洲投资委员会发表对亚洲投资者的全球资产配置观点。该行表示，经济方向不明 朗，市场因而调整减息预期，对美联储政策方向的忧虑趋增。普徕仕对风险资产维持整体中性立场，对 美股维持中性，偏高配置中国股票。 该行指，虽然市场早已预期美联储减息25个基点及结束量化紧缩，但联邦公开市场委员会委员之间的分 歧凸显经济前景的不确定性。有一位委员主张更进取的减息50基点，另一位则反对任何减息，反映美联 储在经济数据有限的情况下，正在权衡各种矛盾信号。 美股自"解放日"低位反弹近40%后，近期转趋波动。市场对高估值、对于人工智能支出的质疑，以及AI 基建债务融资等问题日益受关注。此外，早前美国政府停摆、私营部门数据显示就业市场转弱、消费者 信心下滑，加上美联储政策方向不明朗，都令市场忧虑加深。 然而，企业盈利仍然强劲，并购活动回升，而且财政及货币政策支持的论调依然存在。值得注意的是， AI支出已成为经济增长、企业盈利及市场表现的主要动力，抵消了房地产、制造业及就业市场的疲 弱。鉴于这些失衡的因素，对风险资产维持整体中性立场，并密切关注经济各个领域的分化现象。 美股方面，普徕仕对各市值板块维持中性。虽然大型股可能受 ...