回购工具成为"安全阀" 会议纪要指出，美联储的常备回购便利工具（SRF）在当前环境下发挥着重要作用。该工具为金融机构提供短期流动性支持，有助于将联邦基金利率稳定在 目标区间内，避免短期市场波动干扰资产负债表调整进程。这一机制为市场提供了流动性"安全阀"，提升了金融体系应对临时压力的能力。 资产负债表或接近合理规模 近期，美联储9月政策会议纪要显示，部分与会者强调，持续监测货币市场状况并评估银行体系准备金是否仍处于"充裕"水平，是维持金融体系平稳运行的 关键。目前，美联储仍在推进资产负债表缩减（量化紧缩）进程，但市场迹象表明，这一过程可能已接近阶段性节点。 资金流动性压力显现 随着美国财政部在提高债务上限后加大发债规模，用以重建财政现金余额，市场流动性出现一定收紧迹象。财政部的加大发债，客观上吸收了部分市场资 金，也使得美联储体系内的银行准备金和隔夜逆回购工具余额出现下降。 最新数据显示，美国银行体系准备金已降至约3万亿美元，为年内最低水平。这意味着金融体系的流动性正在逐步回落，货币市场利率维持在较高区间，也 反映出资金成本的上升趋势。 这一水平与部分官员提出的"充裕"准备金标准较为接近。美联储主席鲍威尔此前也 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the conditions of the money market and assessing how far bank reserves are from "ample" levels, while continuing to reduce its large securities portfolio [1][4] - The U.S. Treasury's increased borrowing to rebuild cash balances after raising the debt ceiling is consuming liquidity from the Fed's balance sheet, leading to higher yields on various instruments [4] - Bank reserves have fallen below $3 trillion, marking the lowest level since January, as the Fed continues its quantitative tightening process initiated in 2022 [4][5] Group 2 - Some Federal Reserve participants believe that the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) will help maintain the federal funds rate within its target range and ensure that temporary pressures in the money market do not disrupt the ongoing balance sheet reduction [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding how much to reduce the balance sheet, with some advocating for a smaller balance sheet to bring reserves closer to scarcity rather than ample levels [5] - Fed officials have indicated that once reserves approach ample levels, likely by the end of this year, the balance sheet reduction should cease [5]

Meanwhile, the Fed minutes out today reflecting division little bit over the direction of rates. A slim majority of Fed governors expecting two more cuts this year, but the central bank overall currently dealing with a darth of data. Darth >> Darth Darth >> Darth Vader.>> Darth thanks to the government shutdown. >> I mean, seriously, >> the September jobs report. >> Darth of I mean >> don't give me Don't give me the daggers.>> It's Darth. Yes, it is. >> That's it.Darth is from the movie. >> Is he Lwig or wh ...

美国货币市场持续出现的资金压力，以及美联储银行准备金的逐步减少，表明美联储可能即将结束其大 规模的资产负债表缩减计划。 自9月初以来，美国担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)与美联储基准利率之间的利差已接近2024年底以来的最高 水平，该利差是衡量短期融资成本的关键指标。 此外华尔街见闻曾提及，美国银行准备金也已跌破3万亿美元，创1月以来新低。这些迹象均表明美国金 融体系中的过剩流动性正在被快速吸收。 然而，在何时停止缩表的问题上，美联储内部似乎存在分歧。本周四即将公布的美联储9月会议纪要， 或将为外界提供更多关于决策者在此问题上立场的线索。 资金市场压力持续显现 当前金融体系流动性的持续流失，主要源于两大因素的叠加。 首先，美联储继续其量化紧缩进程，允许其持有的债券到期而不进行再投资，这直接从金融系统中抽走 了资金。由于QT可能加剧流动性限制并导致市场动荡，美联储已在今年早些时候放慢了其缩表步伐。 这直接导致担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）等一系列与美国国债抵押回购协议相关的利率基准，持续徘徊 在美联储的准备金利率（IORB）附近，表明较高的融资成本或将持续。 随着流动性紧张的压力正越来越集中地体现在商业银行的准备金账 ...

Group 1 - The core observation is the apparent contradiction between the tightening liquidity indicated by the Federal Reserve's reduction in bank reserves below $3 trillion and the strong performance of the A-share market, which has surpassed 3400 points with increasing trading volume [1][4] - The A-share market's resilience is highlighted by the fact that while the market appears vibrant, less than 50% of stocks have risen more than 6%, indicating a significant disparity between the index performance and individual stock movements [1][4] - The concept of "locking" by institutional investors is emphasized, where they reduce trading frequency during periods of apparent market calm, suggesting strategic positioning rather than withdrawal [2][5] Group 2 - A specific case study illustrates that a stock can rise by 30% over a period while experiencing a 20% correction, showcasing the misleading nature of market signals such as "waiting for a rebound" and "false prosperity" created by rapid sector rotations [4][7] - The behavior of retail investors is analyzed, noting that they often panic and sell during downturns, missing subsequent gains, while institutions capitalize on these moments to accumulate shares at lower prices [7][9] - The complexity of capital markets is underscored, where macroeconomic tightening and strong market performance coexist, reflecting the multifaceted nature of market dynamics [4][8] Group 3 - Investors are advised to not be misled by superficial market exuberance, as underlying disparities can be severe [9] - Understanding the operational strategies of institutional investors is crucial, as their actions often contradict retail investor instincts [9] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of data-driven analysis over emotional responses, as quantitative analysis can reveal the true market conditions [9]

美银行体系准备金八连降跌破3万亿美元，美联储缩表或接近拐点。美国银行体系的准备金已连续八周下降，并首次跌破3万亿美元大关，令市场对美 联储是否会提前结束缩表产生关注。根据美联储周四公布的数据，截至10月1日的一周，银行准备金减少201亿美元至2.98万亿美元，创下今年1月以来 最低水平。准备金下滑与美国财政部的加大发债密切相关。自7月上调债务上限后，财政部加快发行国债以重建现金余额，吸收了市场流动性。这直接 冲击了美联储资产负债表中的负债端，包括隔夜逆回购(RRP)工具和商业银行准备金。随着RRP逐渐枯竭，商业银行在美联储持有的准备金成为主 要"出血口"。该变化正值美联储继续实施量化紧缩(QT)。QT通过缩减国债和MBS持有规模，收紧金融体系流动性。今年早些时候，美联储已放缓缩表 节奏，每月减少的债券到期规模有所降低，以避免引发市场震荡。 美联储威廉姆斯：各大央行必须为意外情况做好准备。FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五表示，不可预测的变化是不可避免的，央行需要 认识到这一点，并制定策略来应对这些环境。他表示，应对不确定性意味着央行需要制定强有力的原则和策略，以应对一系列突发事件，同时指出仍 将有新情 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.24%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also increasing by 0.18% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.24%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.52%, and France's CAC40 down by 0.08% [2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.35% to $60.69 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.37% to $64.35 per barrel [3] Economic Data and Events - The US non-farm payroll report scheduled for release is likely to be delayed due to the government shutdown, affecting the publication of economic data [4] - The US banking system's reserves have dropped for eight consecutive weeks, falling below $3 trillion for the first time, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [5] - Federal Reserve's Williams emphasized the need for central banks to prepare for unexpected changes and maintain stable inflation expectations [6] Company News - Hedge funds are adjusting strategies ahead of Japan's ruling party election, betting on yen appreciation and reducing risk assets [7] - Bank of America reported a record inflow of $9.3 billion into tech stocks, driven by the AI investment boom, despite the government shutdown [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will accelerate by 2026, but expects a market pullback in the next 1-2 years due to various factors [9] - Chevron's refinery in California experienced a fire, impacting over 16% of the state's refining capacity [10] - Applied Materials anticipates a $600 million revenue loss due to expanded export restrictions to China [10] - Tesla has begun selling its Cybertruck in Qatar, expanding its international presence amid slowing demand in core markets [11] - Boeing's 777X commercial flight plan has been delayed until early 2027, potentially leading to a non-cash accounting charge of $2.5 billion to $4 billion [12]

智通财经APP获悉，美国银行体系的准备金已连续八周下降，并首次跌破3万亿美元大关，令市场对美联储是否 会提前结束缩表产生关注。根据美联储周四公布的数据，截至10月1日的一周，银行准备金减少201亿美元至2.98 万亿美元，创下今年1月以来最低水平。 美联储内部对于"充裕水平"的定义并不一致。副主席鲍曼上周重申，应努力让资产负债表尽可能缩小，使准备金 接近"稀缺"水平。理事沃勒则在7月估算，最低准备金水平大约在2.7万亿美元附近。 准备金下滑与美国财政部的加大发债密切相关。自7月上调债务上限后，财政部加快发行国债以重建现金余额， 吸收了市场流动性。这直接冲击了美联储资产负债表中的负债端，包括隔夜逆回购(RRP)工具和商业银行准备 金。随着RRP逐渐枯竭，商业银行在美联储持有的准备金成为主要"出血口"，其中外国银行现金资产的降幅快于 美国本土银行。 尽管如此，美联储主席鲍威尔上月仍表示银行体系准备金"依然充裕"，并预计缩表将在准备金降至"充裕水平"时 结束。但近期资金市场的迹象显示，美联储可能已逐渐逼近这一临界点。 该变化正值美联储继续实施量化紧缩(QT)。QT通过缩减国债和MBS持有规模，收紧金融体系流动性。今 ...

随着投资者关注债券供应的变化并在抛售后寻求低价买入机会，全球长期债券的压力正在缓解。数据显 示，自9月初以来，美国和日本30年期国债收益率均下跌约20个基点，而英国国债收益率下降逾10个基 点。这扭转了此前一段时间的大规模抛售行情，该抛售曾扰乱了全球最大规模的政府债券市场，推动日 本长期国债收益率创下历史新高，同时令英国国债收益率升至自1998年以来的最高水平。 长期债券的此次反弹在一定程度上受到供应减少的推动，因为一些国家的财政部将发行重点转向成本更 低的短期债券。日本财务省已提议在即将举行的拍卖中减少长期债发行量。英国央行宣布，从下个月开 始，在其量化紧缩(QT)计划中降低长期债抛售占比。澳大利亚的债务管理机构则此前表示，将考虑减少 超长期债的发行。 Aberdeen基金经理Matthew Amis表示："债券收益率曲线在夏季的大幅趋陡走势已经放缓并开始逆转。 长期债券不会有太多供应。" 供应端的变化正在推动市场的广泛重新思考。TS Lombard策略师称，供应"修正"为英国和日本债券创造 了买入机会。花旗集团和美国银行的策略师已经退出此前对长期美债将跑输的交易建议。 长期债券市场前景出现一定乐观情绪的回 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In September 2025, multiple employment data in the US indicated a cooling labor market, and the cost - pressure transmission of tariff adjustments was still slow. The economic recovery momentum in the Eurozone, Japan, etc., increased. In terms of monetary policy, the Fed's restart of interest rate cuts was fulfilled as expected, which was defined as a "risk - management - style" cut by Powell and was somewhat hawkish. The European and British central banks remained on hold, waiting for the tariff impact to become clearer. In October, attention should be paid to the fundamental performance of major countries, and the intensification of capital market volatility risks should be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Economy: Divergent Monetary Policy Trends and Overall Controllable Inflation Pressure 3.1.1 Global Economy: Resilient Economy and Manufacturing PMI Back in Expansion Zone The global economy remained resilient, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone. In August, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI index was 50.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from 49.7% in July. Only the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was above the 50 boom - bust line among major overseas countries. The global services PMI index decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.4% in August, maintaining high - level prosperity. In trade, the Baltic Dry Index fluctuated upward, and South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September increased by 13.5% year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, the European and British central banks remained on hold, and the Bank of Japan sent hawkish signals. The US Treasury Secretary considered "all stabilization options" to support Argentina [8]. 3.1.2 Developed Economies: Resilient Economies in Major Countries and Potentially Controllable Inflation Pressure - **US: Slowing Fundamental Growth Momentum and Cooling Labor Market** - Economic growth showed a divergence in prosperity. Manufacturing continued to contract, while the service industry expanded faster. In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7%, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0%. - Newly added employment was far below expectations, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In August, the non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. - The inflation level was relatively moderate, and the pressure on commodity prices from tariffs was limited. In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. - Retail sales remained resilient, and the sustainability of consumption momentum needed attention. In August, US retail sales increased by 0.62% month - on - month. - The real estate market was restricted by high mortgage rates and rising housing prices [21][22][23]. - **Eurozone: Strengthening Recovery Momentum, Divergent Prosperity in the UK and Japan, and Unstable Manufacturing Recovery Foundation** - The Eurozone's recovery momentum increased. In August, the composite PMI rose to 51.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7%. - The UK's manufacturing continued to contract, while business activities in the service industry accelerated expansion. In August, the UK's manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0%, and the service industry PMI rose to 54.2%. - Japan's economic prosperity was divergent. In August, the composite PMI rose to 52.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%. - In terms of inflation, the Eurozone's inflation remained stable month - on - month, the UK faced greater pressure, and Japan's inflation remained high [35][37][39]. 3.2 Monetary Policy: US Restarts Rate Cuts, Europe and UK are Cautious, and Japan Sends More Hawkish Signals 3.2.1 Fed: "Risk - Management - Style" Rate Cut Implemented, Focus on Downward Employment Risks On September 18, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 4.0% - 4.25%. The policy balance shifted from focusing on inflation rebound to employment stall risks. The dot - plot predicted two more rate cuts in October and December. Whether to cut rates again in October depends on the performance of September's non - farm data, and the Fed's independence and the composition of the new council members have increased the uncertainty of future rate - cut prospects [54]. 3.2.2 ECB: ECB Continues to Hold Rates Steady, Inflation Risks are Roughly Balanced On September 11, the ECB held rates steady, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%. It believed that manufacturing and services were growing, and previous rate cuts would further boost consumption and investment. It raised inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 and lowered those for 2027. In the future, it may continue to make data - dependent and meeting - by - meeting decisions [58]. 3.2.3 BoJ: Increased Probability of Interest Rate Hike, Planned Reduction of ETF and Other Assets On September 19, the BoJ kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and decided to gradually sell ETF and J - REITs in the market. Two officials voted against and supported a 25 - basis - point rate hike. If economic and price forecasts are realized, the BoJ may continue to raise interest rates, increasing the possibility of restarting rate hikes this year [61]. 3.2.4 BoE: BoE Maintains Interest Rates, Slows Down Quantitative Tightening, and Reduces Expectations of Rate Cuts This Year On September 18, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the policy rate at 4% and announced a reduction in the scale of central bank balance - sheet contraction from October. Concerns about inflation rebound made the market cautious about further rate cuts by the BoE this year [64]. 3.3 Financial Markets: US Treasury Yields First Declined and Then Rose, the US Dollar Index Weakened, and International Oil Prices Fluctuated 3.3.1 US Bond Market: Cooling Labor Market and Fed Rate Cut Implementation Led to Fluctuations in US Treasury Yields In September, the US bond market focused on the weakening labor market and the Fed's rate cut. In the first and middle of the month, the yield dropped from 4.28% to around 4%. In the late month, it rebounded to around 4.15%. Overall, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 2BP to 3.61%, and the 10 - year yield fell 8BP to 4.15% [67][68]. 3.3.2 Exchange - Rate Market: Weakening US Dollar Index, Fluctuating Japanese Yen, and Strengthening Euro and Pound - The US dollar index was overall weak. In early September, the downward risks in the labor market increased rate - cut expectations and pressured the US dollar. In the middle and late months, the Fed's rate cut was less dovish than expected, and the US dollar index rebounded. - The Japanese yen fluctuated in a narrow range between 146 - 148 due to the US dollar index and domestic political uncertainties. - The euro and pound strengthened overall. In the first and middle of the month, the Eurozone's economic indicators were positive, and the pound was supported by the UK's fiscal policy and the BoE's stance [69][70]. 3.3.3 International Crude Oil: Geopolitical Frictions and Oil - Demand Outlook Caused Volatility in Crude Oil Prices In September, international oil prices fluctuated around $63 per barrel. In early September, concerns about OPEC + production increases and US economic recession led to a price drop. Then, geopolitical tensions and reduced concerns about supply surpluses pushed prices up. In the middle and late months, the Fed's statement on employment risks and EU sanctions on Russia caused prices to fall again [74].