金价从日高回落，因交易商关注美国国债收益率上升，并在强劲反弹后获利了结。 【华通白银网11月14日讯】•金价试图收于4240美元上方。 •随着金银比攀升至79.00上方，白银回落至53.00美元水平。 •铂金未能收于阻力位1620-1630美元上方。 黄金 相对强弱指标仍处于中等水平，因此短期内有足够的空间获得额外的上行动力。 白银 随着金银比反弹至79.00上方，白银回落至53.00美元水平。 从技术面来看，白银需要保持在52.60-52.80美元阻力位上方，才能在短期内获得额外的上行动力。 铂金 铂金试图突破1620-1630美元的阻力位，但失去动力并回落。 因此，铂金仍停留在支撑位1520-1530美元和阻力位1620-1630美元之间的区间内。 | | | 11月14日经济数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 时间 | 数据 | 前值 | 预测值 | 公布值 | | 15:45 | 法国10月CPI月率终值 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 未公布 | | 18:00 | 欧元区第三季度GDP年率修正值 | 1.30% | 1.30% | 未公布 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic silver futures have surged, reaching a historical high of 12,639 yuan/kg, with London silver also nearing its historical peak of 54.468 USD/oz, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown and increased liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rebound in silver prices is primarily attributed to the conclusion of the U.S. government shutdown, which is expected to inject liquidity into the market and bolster expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3]. - Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven investments into precious metals, with silver attracting attention due to its significantly lower price compared to gold [3]. - The gold-silver ratio, currently around 78, is a key market indicator reflecting the relative price relationship and differing supply-demand expectations for both metals [3][5]. Group 2: Historical Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, when the gold-silver ratio declines, silver, which has stronger industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [5]. - The current environment, characterized by the beginning of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, suggests that the gold-silver ratio may have further room to decline [5]. - Technical analysis indicates that a "cup and handle" pattern for silver prices has been activated, suggesting a strong medium to long-term outlook for silver prices [6]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, has been rising, contributing to lower silver inventories and supporting price increases [6].

来源：中国报道 11月10日，全球贵金属市场大涨，白银表现尤为亮眼。当日，现货白银（伦敦银）涨幅逾4.5%，重返50美元/盎司。期间也曾短暂回落至49美元/盎司上 方，但旋即再次开启上涨模式。 北京时间11月11日中午，现货白银一度突破51美元/盎司。截至记者发稿时，依然稳定在50美元/盎司上方。 今年4月初以来，现货白银价格从略高于28美元/盎司的最低点一路上涨，北京时间10月16日突破54美元/盎司，最大涨幅超过90%，表现远优于今年备受瞩 目的黄金。 11月7日，美国政府将铀、铜、白银加入政府关键矿产清单，白银从工业大宗商品升级为关乎国家安全和技术独立的战略资源。 尽管10月17日后，现货白银价格连续大幅回调，一度跌至45美元/盎司上方，但经过一周左右的整理，已于11月5日恢复上涨势头。 需求增加是推动白银价格上涨的重要因素之一。根据《世界白银调查2025》的最新数据，2016—2020年期间，白银总供应量达到50.87亿盎司，而总需求 仅为49.02亿盎司，市场供应状态相对宽松。然而自2021年起，全球白银需求超过供应。若纳入白银ETF的投资，2024年全球白银市场实际供需缺口高达 2.105亿盎司， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of the lithium sector and the stability of gold prices due to central bank purchases [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the central bank's gold purchases are expected to support a stable gold price outlook, while the lithium sector shows unexpected strength, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these areas [3][4]. - The overall performance of the metals sector has been mixed, with significant year-to-date gains in various sub-sectors, particularly in energy metals and copper [10][5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.19%. The non-ferrous metals index slightly declined by 0.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.86 percentage points [5][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 56.92 percentage points [5][9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and lithium prices experiencing fluctuations. For instance, lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.73% week-on-week [4][10]. - The report notes that the price of copper has decreased by 1.57% to $10,717 per ton, while aluminum prices have shown a slight increase of 1.22% [15][44]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the metals sector, highlighting their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For example, Zijin Mining has a stock price of 30.17 yuan with a PE ratio of 38 [20]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold with a stock price of 35.21 yuan and a PE ratio of 70, and Huayou Cobalt with a stock price of 64.34 yuan and a PE ratio of 36 [20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the supply of copper is tightening due to increased demand from the manufacturing sector, with the operating rates for copper products showing positive trends [29][4]. - In the aluminum sector, the report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints in the future [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is "★★★", indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. With the Fed's internal differences, the US government shutdown, and the possible non - release of this week's non - farm payroll data, the market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals are building a high - level oscillation platform, suggesting a temporary wait - and - see approach. Regarding silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell stated that "another rate cut is not a certainty", causing the probability of a December rate cut expected by traders to drop from nearly 100% a week ago to 65.3%, removing the interest - rate decline support for non - interest - bearing gold [2] - The doves advocate significant rate cuts, while the hawks are cautious about further rate cuts due to concerns about inflation and financial market risks. The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" stage, and gold prices face short - term callback risks due to uncertainties such as unclear Fed policies, data vacuum caused by the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is represented by three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that another rate cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3%, causing non - interest - bearing gold to lose the support of falling interest rates [2] - The dovish representative, Governor Milan, advocates significant rate cuts, while hawks like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee are concerned about inflation, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid believes that further rate cuts carry high risks [3] - The market has entered a typical "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties, including the unclear Fed policy outlook, data vacuum due to the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy, are putting pressure on gold prices. Gold prices still face a risk of further correction in the short term [3] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions of Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals continued to oscillate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected and the previous value. Precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform, and it's recommended to wait and see. For silver, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise [2] Fed's Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% last week, the second cut this year. Chairman Powell said another cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3% [2] - Dovish and hawkish officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Dovish officials advocate significant cuts, while hawkish officials are concerned about inflation and the risks of further cuts [3] Market Risks and Outlook - The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties are pressuring gold prices, and there is a risk of further short - term correction [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - COMEX gold prices have entered a range - bound oscillation, once falling below $3900 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices are also range - bound, falling below $46 per ounce. Multiple factors such as the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the long - term US government shutdown, and the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause the COMEX gold price to enter a phased range - bound oscillation after a pull - back from its high, and the silver price to enter a range - bound oscillation after a sharp drop from its high [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - COMEX gold prices entered a range - bound oscillation and once fell below $3900 per ounce, while COMEX silver prices were range - bound and fell below $46 per ounce [45]. - On the early morning of October 30th, the Federal Reserve ended its monetary policy meeting and announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%, meeting market expectations [45]. - On the morning of October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents met in Busan, South Korea, to discuss bilateral economic and trade relations. The bilateral economic and trade relations tend to ease, sending a positive signal to the global economy [45]. Short - Term Outlook - Sino - US economic and trade relations are temporarily easing [45]. - The long - term US government shutdown is dragging down the US economy, especially the employment market, and the Federal Reserve may turn dovish [45]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to ease within the year [45]. Price and Ratio - Gold and silver prices are both oscillating, the gold - silver ratio is decreasing, the gold - oil ratio has stabilized after a decline, and the copper - gold ratio is decreasing [7]. Position - Domestic gold futures positions have slightly decreased, and domestic silver futures positions have slightly increased [13]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - The report presents the exchange rate and interest rate spreads between the US and Europe, the US and the UK, and the US and Japan, as well as the comparison of US Treasury bond spreads with overseas and exchange rate changes [16][17][18]. Inventory - The inventory data of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are presented, but specific trends are not clearly described [27]. ETF - Gold ETFs have slightly increased, and silver ETFs have slightly decreased [29][32]. CFTC Net Long Position - The net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds are presented [35][38]. Central Bank Gold Reserve - The global major central bank gold reserves and their growth rates are presented [40]. Basis - The gold TD - SHFE basis and silver basis data from 2022 to 2025 are presented [42][43].

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 周蕊 在连续九周上涨后，国际金价结束了近两个月的连涨势头，迎来明显回调。美国东部时间10月24日，现 货黄金收跌0.3%，报每盎司4113.05美元，全周累计下跌约3.3%。此前的强劲反弹曾一度将金价推入"超 买"区间，随着投资者重新评估市场涨势，获利回吐情绪升温，引发短线调整。 尽管如此，黄金年内累计涨幅仍高达57%，成为表现最突出的主要资产之一。支撑金价强劲表现的主要 因素包括：各国央行持续增持黄金、美联储释放鸽派信号，以及黄金ETF资金的强势流入。分析人士指 出，本轮回调更多属于技术性修正，而非趋势反转。高位震荡有助于消化前期涨幅，为金价的中长期走 势积蓄新的动能。展望后市，业内人士普遍认为，尽管短期或面临高位震荡，但中长期支撑因素仍在， 黄金作为核心资产配置的重要性持续凸显。 围绕金价今年屡创新高背后的驱动因素、近期回调之后投资者该如何看黄金后市等话题，南方财经记者 对大宗商品交易领域的资深专家、纽约商品交易所（COMEX）理事会主席威廉·普普拉（William Purpura）进行了专访。普普拉指出，央行虽然是买家，但并不是推动金价上涨的主导力量。真正的核 心仍然是投 ...

Core Viewpoint - After nine consecutive weeks of increase, international gold prices have experienced a notable correction, with a weekly decline of approximately 3.3% as of October 24, 2023, despite a year-to-date increase of 57% [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The strong performance of gold is supported by several factors, including continuous purchases by central banks, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and significant inflows into gold ETFs [1] - Investment demand remains the core driver of gold prices, with central banks acting as buyers but not the primary force behind price increases [2][3] - The current market dynamics indicate that the recent correction is more of a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal, allowing for the digestion of previous gains [1][5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term support factors for gold remain intact, emphasizing its importance as a core asset in investment portfolios [1] - The potential for gold prices to reach higher levels, such as $5,000 or even $7,000, exists, particularly in the context of rising public debt in the U.S. and a shift away from fiat currencies [7] - Market volatility is expected, with gold prices likely to rebound after temporary declines during periods of liquidity tightening [6][7] Group 3: Gold vs. Silver Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has returned to around 80, indicating differing market dynamics between the two precious metals, with gold primarily serving as a store of value and silver having stronger industrial applications [3][4] - The analysis of the gold-silver ratio can provide insights into market behavior, although it is essential to consider the fundamental differences between the two metals [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver has seen a rapid price decline as the spot contradiction eases. The gold - silver ratio has risen from 78.6 to 85.6, mainly due to the sharp drop in silver prices. The first target for silver's downward movement is $47.5, and the second is $43 - 44. Gold needs a monthly - level price adjustment, but its bottom support is stronger than silver's [3]. - The US economic outlook is complex. Although the real demand is not weak, the expectations are affected by policies. The US government shutdown has continued for four weeks, and 10 - month hard data may be missing. Soft data shows an improvement in October's Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs compared to September, with the new orders composite index reaching its highest level this year. However, the manufacturing employment index has dropped to a three - month low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - $15.345 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - $22.7 per ounce [9]. - The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.2135 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - $0.27 per ounce [12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was - 2.77 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The silver spot - futures price spread was - 15 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.12 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver monthly spread was 46 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 4.20 yuan per gram, and the cost of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.69 yuan per gram [30][31]. - For silver, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 50.54 yuan per kilogram, and the cost of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 178.05 yuan per kilogram [32][33]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The same was true for silver [34]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.23 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 51.3%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389 tons to 15,456 tons, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 33.7%. Gold futures inventory increased by 2.41 tons, and silver futures inventory decreased by 255 tons to 664 tons [36][38][41]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 12.31 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 77.59 tons [49][51]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 78.6 to 85.6 [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 13.86% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [67] 3.2.3 Non - Farm Employment Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [70] 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [75] 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [77] 3.2.6 Fed Rate - Cut Probability - Not summarized in detail as only a title is provided without specific content [79]