沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货79360，基差-330，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：8月22日铜库存减375至155975吨，上期所铜库存较上周减4663吨至81698吨；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，9月美联储降息升温，铜价短期震荡偏强. 近期利多利空分析 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 ...

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月25日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78690 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） 2. 降息预期增加导致美元指数回落推升有色金属估值。 3. 下方支撑抬升。 利空因素： | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2511C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | ...

研究报告 铜周报 美联储主席暗示可能下月降息，沪铜或震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 8 | 月 | 25 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 国家统计局数据显示，7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实 际增长 5.7%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从 环比看，7 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.38%。1—7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.3%。美国联邦储备委员会 主席鲍威尔 22 日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会 上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78825，基差175，升水期货； 中性。 3、库存：8月22日铜库存减375至155975吨，上期所铜库存较上周减4663吨至81698吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向下运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，9月美联储降息升温，铜价短期震荡偏强. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐观，高铜价会压制下游消 ...

7 月家用空调产量同比持平，好于此前排产预计数 ——铜行业周报（20250818-20250822） 要点 本周小结：宏观情绪好转，铜价有望自 9 月开始走强。截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日， SHFE 铜收盘价 78690 元/吨，环比 8 月 15 日-0.47%；LME 铜收盘价 9797 美 元/吨，环比 8 月 15 日+0.37%。（1）宏观：美联储主席鲍威尔 8 月 22 日讲话 偏鸽，市场预计 9 月降息概率较大。（2）供需：因此前美国铜关税导致的库存 搬运已进入尾声，LME 和 COMEX 累库有望逐步结束；国内淡季即将结束，看好 9 月以后国内需求好转。矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求 Q4 回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+4.9%，LME 铜库存环比+0.2%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 56.2 万吨，环比上周 -1.1%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 18 日，全球三大交易所库存 合计 50.9 万吨，环比+1.5%。截至 2025 年 8 月 21 ...

一、价格总览：沪铜走势与现货行情 在日常的废品回收中，铜的身影无处不在，从废旧电线到老旧电器，都蕴藏着可观的价值。那么，让我们拨开专业的迷雾，用最贴近生活的语言，聊聊2024 年3月22日，铜价的那些事儿。 今日沪铜期货主力合约价格经历了一番震荡，最终收盘价定格在每吨72680元，较上一交易日小幅上涨了230元。现货市场上，以长江有色金属现货为例，1 电解铜的价格在72620元/吨至72920元/吨之间波动，平均价为72770元/吨，较昨日上涨20元。广东南储的报价则稍高，为72830元/吨至73130元/吨。整体来 看，现货铜价呈现出稳中小涨的态势。 二、废铜江湖：各地价格暗流涌动 对于咱们老百姓来说，更关心的莫过于废铜的价格了。毕竟，家里攒着的那些废电线、旧水管，都能换成实实在在的钞票。 上海市场：光亮铜线（通常被称为1铜）是废铜中的佼佼者，其价格区间为68200元/吨至68500元/吨。紫杂铜（含铜量稍逊）的价格则在65900元/吨至66200 元/吨之间。 广东市场：同样是光亮铜线，广东的报价略高，为68600元/吨至68900元/吨。紫杂铜的价格区间则为66300元/吨至66600元/吨。 其他地区 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡偏弱，主力收盘报 78540，隔夜特朗普呼吁美联储理事库克辞职美市场 等待周五晚间全球央行年会上鲍威尔发言，但在美联储最近一次会议的记录显示 只有两名决策者支持上月降息后，美元缩减跌幅。现货涨 30 至 78800，现货升水 跌 30 至 160，国产货源补充下现货升水承压。现货进口窗口继续打开，现货进口 盈利 230 元/吨，洋山铜 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡偏弱，主力收盘报 78640，宏观面等待周五晚间全球央行年会上鲍威尔 发 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US employment data is weak and the CPI reflects moderate inflation, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The domestic central bank's monetary policy aims to keep prices at a reasonable level, with positive macro - impacts both at home and abroad. - Fundamentally, spot inventory remains low, and premiums are firm. There are concerns about supply reduction during the September - October maintenance peak. However, with the repair of overseas premiums, some overseas copper is flowing into China and other Asian markets, and recent imports have increased. - Domestic supply output remains high, and downstream consumption in the off - season shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. But consumption has resilience, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season may boost copper prices. - Low inventory supports copper prices at a high level. With favorable domestic policies and the Fed rate - cut expectation, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The contradiction between mining and smelting persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, still at a low level. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month, showing a stable low - level trend. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year, with a stable growth rate [6]. - **Demand Side**: In the off - season, downstream consumption shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong demand in the lithium - battery copper foil market, while the copper tube operating rate declined as expected, and the copper strip operating rate continued to fall due to the off - season [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: With positive macro - impacts, high domestic supply, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data**: The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff. China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. China's July retail sales growth slowed to 3.7%, and the auto retail sales declined year - on - year. China's real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI reached a new high since February. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, a three - year high [15]. - **Industry News**: Chile's July copper exports decreased by 0.4% year - on - year to 3.99 billion dollars. Codelco resumed partial operations at El Teniente copper mine. In June, Codelco's copper production increased year - on - year, while Escondida's production decreased significantly. In July, the proportion of Russian - origin copper in LME warehouses decreased due to the large - scale inflow of Chinese - origin copper. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter eased the tight copper concentrate supply. Cochilco maintained its copper price forecast at 4.30 dollars/pound for this year and next [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premiums and Discounts**: Last week, due to the change in the monthly spread structure to Contango, most holders were reluctant to sell, and the domestic spot supply was still tight. The spot premium of SHFE copper remained stable, but declined at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium continued to fall, and the New York - London copper spread remained low after a significant decline [25]. - **Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper futures position was 152,557 lots, down 2.76% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume was 54,485 lots, up 10.21% week - on - week. As of August 8, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 21,281.52 lots, down 2.89% week - on - week. As of August 12, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 25,168 lots, up 37.91% week - on - week [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The mining - smelting contradiction persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter slightly eased the copper concentrate supply. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year [34]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively [36]. - **Imports and Exports**: As of August 15, the SHFE - LME copper ratio was 8.10, and the copper spot import profit and loss remained negative but the negative value narrowed. In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, up 5.11% year - on - year; unforged copper and copper products imports were 460,000 tons, up 6.5% year - on - year [39]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [48].

Banking Sector - The profitability growth rate of commercial banks improved in Q2 2025, with state-owned banks recording a growth rate of 1.1% [5] - The expansion of bank balance sheets is steady, with loan and non-loan asset growth rates increasing by 0.2 and 3.8 percentage points respectively compared to Q1 [5] - Despite weak absolute and relative returns in the banking sector since Q3, the dividend yield advantage has marginally improved, indicating potential for future bank stock performance [5] Commodities - COMEX copper non-commercial shorts reached a new low since January 2012, influenced by an increased probability of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar [6] - The copper market faces inventory pressure in the short term, but tight supply from mines and scrap copper is expected to support prices in Q4 as demand from power grids and air conditioning rises [6] Oil and Gas - Major international oil companies reported a decline in operating performance for H1 2025, with ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and Total experiencing net profit decreases of 15.3%, 39.7%, 22.9%, and 31.2% respectively [9] - The IEA has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to an increase of 680,000 barrels per day [9] Agriculture - The USDA's report indicates that the forecast for U.S. corn yield for the 2025/26 season is at a record high of 188.8 bushels per acre (approximately 4.80 tons per acre), up by 7.8 bushels from the previous month [6] - The total corn production forecast was significantly raised from 15.705 billion bushels to 16.742 billion bushels (approximately 425 million tons), exceeding the previous record of 14 billion bushels set in 2023/24 [6] Coal Mining - A new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" was released, featuring 34 chapters and 777 articles, with 56 new articles added and 353 articles substantially modified [7] - The current safety inspection situation remains strict, with the capacity utilization rate of 462 coal mines still below last year's level, indicating ongoing regulatory pressure [7] Company Performance - Jiangyin Bank reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.4 billion, with a net profit growth of 16.6% to 850 million in H1 2025 [8] - Huafeng Chemical's H1 2025 revenue decreased by 11.7% to 12.1 billion, with a net profit decline of 35.2% to 983 million, reflecting pressure from the downtrend in spandex and adipic acid markets [8]