点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 供给：9月全球铜精矿产量环比-0.3% （1）铜矿：2025年7月中国铜精矿产量为13.8 万吨，环比-6.3%，同比-1.6%；9月全球铜精矿产量为191.4 万吨，环比-0.3%。（2）废铜：截至2025年11月21日，精废价差为2675 元/吨，环比11月14日-813 元/吨。 冶炼：10月电解铜进口量同比-21.5%，出口量同比+542% 1）产量：2025年10月SMM中国电解铜产量109.16万吨，环比-2.6%，同比+9.6%。（2）TC：截至2025年 11月21日，TC现货价为-41.82 美元/吨，环比11月14日+0.0 美元/吨，处2007年9月以来低位。（3）进出 口：10月电解铜进口量同比-21.5%，出口 ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-11-24 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价高位震荡为主 F3084967 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约周初延续前一周五的冲高回落趋势，后续 维持震荡走势，周五收于 85660 元/吨，较前一周-1.4%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 供需方面，进口铜精矿加工费无太多变化，11 月 18 日，自由港发布公 告，宣布全球印尼 Grasberg 地下矿将自 2026 年第二季度起逐步大规模重启 并提产，2026 年 Grasberg 矿区的预估产量调整为与 2025 年持平，约为 10 亿磅（约 45.4 万吨）铜，这一数字较 9 月修订后的事故前预估水平下降约 35%，所以中期来看对供应端还是有一定影响。上周 SMM 铜线缆开工率环 比升 1.32 个百分点，铜价回调至 86000 元/吨下，订单回升但个别企业观望， 汽车线束需求向好，11 月最后一周，企业将提产冲刺，SMM 预期开工率小 幅回升。漆包线行业机台开机率环比回升 0.73 个百分点至 77.93%。周中铜 价重心小幅回落，有效刺激下游下单需求，行业整体活跃度呈现回暖态势， 但仍未达到旺季常规水平。三大交易所库存环比增加 ...

铜周报 2025/11/22 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘层面对市场情绪有所压制 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费下滑，粗铜加工费持平，冷料供应边际偏宽松。消息面，智利国家铜业（Codelco）对2026年CIF韩国电解铜长单报 价在330美元/吨，较2025年85美元/吨上涨245美元/吨。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加3.8万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.1至11.1万吨，LME库存增加1.9至15.5万吨，COMEX库存增加1.7至36.2万吨 上海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货90元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M升水1.1美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价反弹。海关总署数据显示，2025年10月我国精炼铜进口量32.3万吨，净进口量为25.7万 吨，环比减少9.0万吨 ...

Group 1 - Recent copper price movements have been influenced by supply-side production cuts and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a strong rally followed by a pullback due to hawkish signals from the Fed [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains marginally loose, but its positive impact on the market is limited, with expectations for a rate cut in December now below 50% [1] - Supply uncertainties persist, with a decrease in refined copper production and imports in September, while global copper markets may face a supply gap of approximately 150,000 tons by 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The inventory structure shows regional mismatches, with high Comex copper inventories and slight accumulations in SHFE, while LME inventories are declining [2] - The TC (treatment charge) remains at historically low levels, indicating ongoing tightness in copper ore supply, with upcoming negotiations expected to influence TC levels for 2026 [2] - As the fourth quarter progresses, copper prices are likely to be driven by supply and demand dynamics, with macroeconomic stimuli failing to create a sustained trend [3]

对于铜价走势，新湖期货表示，近期因市场对美国12月降息预期下降，而且美股大跌压制市场风险偏 好，铜价持续承压走弱。不过铜价回落提振国内消费，下游企业开工率延续回升，国内库存小幅去化， 铜价下方存支撑。 （文华综合） 自由港公司周二称，该公司计划于明年第二季度恢复旗下印尼Grasberg矿的大规模生产。根据分阶段计 划，自由港预计2026年旗下自由港印尼公司的铜金总产量将与2025年产出基本持平，约为10亿磅铜和90 万盎司黄金。整体今年铜矿端扰动增加，国内铜精矿现货加工费低位徘徊，年底国内冶炼厂和海外矿商 的谈判压力同样较大。 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情略有转暖，收盘微涨0.17%。此前美联储降息预期降温压制铜价走势，不 过矿端紧张状况延续，下游需求伴随着价格的回落略有好转，后续仍需关注需求回暖的持续性。 ...

北京时间11月18日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格宽幅震荡，今日开盘报10752美元/吨，现报 10741美元/吨，跌幅0.35%，盘中最高触及10764.5美元/吨，最低下探10722.5美元/吨。 LME铜 10830.0 10851.0 10756.5 10766.5 -0.73% 【铜市场消息速递】 11月17日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为7.99，进口盈亏：-923.99元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-809.1元/吨。 摩根士丹利：预计2026年铜价将达到每吨10,600美元。 更新时间： LME铜期货行情回顾： 11月17日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 11月17日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单126575吨。注销仓单9475吨，减少175吨。铜库存 136050吨，增加325吨。 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 供给：本周精废价差环比+500元/吨 （1）铜矿：2025年7月中国铜精矿产量为13.8 万吨，环比-6.3%，同比-1.6%；8月全球铜精矿产量为193.7万 吨，环比-0.3%。（2）废铜：截至2025年11月14日，精废价差为3488 元/吨，环比11月7日+500 元/吨。 冶炼：本周TC现货价环比-0.5美元/吨 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：短期铜价震荡，需求修复后仍看好铜价上行 截至2025年11月14日，SHFE铜收盘价86900 元/吨，环比11月7日+1.12%；LME铜收盘价10846 美元/吨，环比 11月7日+1.41%。（1）宏观：短期宏观扰动减弱。（2）供需：自由港削减2025-2026年铜产量，供给后续仍维 持紧张 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price resumed its upward trend this week due to the impending restart of the US government, which led to a rebound in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the spot premium remained stable, and the downstream procurement sentiment increased steadily. With macro - level positives and support from the spot market, the copper price was pushed up. The supply - side support for the copper price is weakening this year, while the demand is expected to pick up and support the copper price. From a macro perspective, after the US government restarts, the release of employment and inflation data is expected to increase the probability of an interest rate cut in December, and the US dollar is expected to weaken. Overall, it is difficult for the copper price to decline, and it is expected to continue rising with the improvement of the macro - environment and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Trend Reasons**: The resumption of the upward trend in copper prices is due to the upcoming restart of the US government, the recovery of market risk appetite, stable spot premiums, and increased downstream procurement sentiment. The support from macro factors and the spot market has pushed up copper prices. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The narrative of tight copper ore supply continues, but the supply pressure of cold materials has weakened as the refined - scrap price spread has widened. The production reduction pressure on smelters in November has eased. SMM expects a decrease of only 0.4 million tons in November and a slight increase in December, so the supply - side support for copper prices is weakening this year [10]. - **Demand - Side Outlook**: The demand that was squeezed by the sharp increase in copper prices in the early stage is gradually being released in November. There is an expectation of rush - work in the power grid sector near the end of the year. SMM expects the operating rate in the refined copper rod sector to rebound, mainly driven by the need to complete production value tasks in the wire and cable sector and the continuous growth of demand in the new energy and transformer sectors in the enameled wire field. However, the social inventory has not effectively started to decline, making the upward rhythm of copper prices unstable [10]. - **Macro - Economic Impact**: After the US government restarts, the release of employment and inflation data is expected to increase the probability of an interest rate cut in December, and the US dollar is expected to weaken. Overall, the copper price is expected to continue rising [10]. 3.2. Industry News - **Peru's Copper Production**: In September 2025, Peru's copper production increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. In the first nine months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 2.048 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. Peru is the world's third - largest copper producer [11]. - **SandfireResources' Acquisition Plan**: Australia's largest listed independent copper producer, SandfireResources, announced on Thursday that it had reached a binding term sheet with HavilahResources. It plans to acquire an 80% stake in the Kalkaroo copper - gold project in South Australia through a two - stage investment of up to A$210 million. The first stage requires a payment of A$105 million (70% in Sandfire shares and 30% in cash) to obtain the qualification, and the second stage requires another A$105 million after the pre - feasibility study (PFS) is completed [11]. - **TasekoMines' Performance**: Vancouver copper producer TasekoMines had a revenue of C$174 million in the third quarter, an adjusted EBITDA of C$62 million, and a net profit of C$6 million. The copper production of its core asset, the Gibraltar mine, increased to 27.6 million pounds (including 895,000 pounds of cathode copper) due to the high - grade mining area. The grade was 0.22%, the recovery rate was 77%, and the C1 cost dropped to US$2.87 per pound. The solvent extraction and electrowinning plant of the Florence Copper project in Arizona has been basically completed, with the first solution injection in early November. The commercial well - field flow met expectations, and the first batch of cathode copper production is imminent. Drilling will resume in the coming weeks to support capacity ramp - up in 2026 [11][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Supply - Domestic and overseas copper mines face production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, domestic processing fees for crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. [2] - Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. [2] - Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased. [2] - Market Outlook - With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December and the end of the US federal government shutdown, the production disruptions in overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Trading Volume Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price was 86,630, up 150 from the previous day. The trading volume was 74,639 hands, a decrease of 23,450. The open interest was 202,371 hands, a decrease of 1,756. The inventory was 42,964 tons, a decrease of 825. The Shanghai copper basis was 135, up 80. [2] - **London Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,840, down 34.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 21.28, down 6.43, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 80.63. [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.0635, up 0.11. The total inventory was 376,631, an increase of 7,262. [2] 3.2. Trading Strategy - Short - term traders are advised to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 87,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 10,800 - 11,200. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5. [2]

格隆汇11月12日｜花旗预计到2026年第二季度，铜价将继续攀升至平均1.2万美元/吨（牛市情况为1.4万 美元/吨）；预计今年剩余时间铜交易价格约为1.1万美元/吨。忽略近期实物需求疲软的因素，目标价反 映出2026年更看涨的基本面设置，但如果看涨催化剂出现，铜价可能比预期更快涨至1.2万美元/吨。全 球制造业情绪好坏参半，意味着2025年剩余时间内周期性铜需求板块上行空间有限。预计在2024年较强 劲消费的基础上，2025年第四季度铜消费同比增长将持续走软，制造业活动也将放缓，但预计在美国宽 松的财政和全球货币政策的帮助下，到2026年将出现复苏。 ...