Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that it is advisable to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival holiday. The Shanghai copper market has experienced significant fluctuations before the holiday, influenced by external market news and precious metal sentiment. Although the fundamentals may improve after the downstream resumes production, the market is easily affected by overseas news and external non - ferrous metals, leading to amplified volatility [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai copper was affected by external market news and precious metal sentiment, resulting in significant fluctuations. Subsequently, it gradually stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply - demand logic before the holiday was a double - reduction situation. In January, the production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of SMM China electrolytic copper will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The news of expanding copper reserves has stimulated the market to rise, amplifying the expectation of tight supply. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, the downstream industry replenished raw materials, but as the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, the downstream entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases decreased marginally. The price of Shanghai copper is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industrial anti - involution at the lower end and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions at the upper end [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. - Spot: On February 11, 2026, the spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 50 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 13,383 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 56 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 177,200 tons, an increase of 8,282 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 192,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 592,500 short tons, an increase of 1,248 short tons from the previous period [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The production in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%, but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The regenerative copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The demand decreased as downstream industries entered the holiday mode. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is relatively high, and the non - farm payrolls data for January in the US tonight may affect market sentiment. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading is light before the holiday, with the external market during the holiday expected to influence post - holiday copper price sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended higher, with a strong intraday oscillation. The production in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and the estimated output in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%, but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The regenerative copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The demand decreased as downstream industries entered the holiday mode. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is relatively high, and the non - farm payrolls data for January in the US tonight may affect market sentiment. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading is light before the holiday, with the external market during the holiday expected to influence post - holiday copper price sentiment [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended higher, with a strong intraday oscillation. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 60 yuan/ton. On February 10, 2026, the LME official price is 13093 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 91 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Supply - side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.21 cents/pound [8] 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 17.89 million tons, an increase of 12958 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 9.11 million tons, an increase of 0.17 million tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 18.91 million tons, an increase of 4800 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 59.15 million short tons, an increase of 1248 short tons from the previous period [12]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the close on February 9, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some metals rising significantly and some falling. The prices of various futures varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and seasonal patterns [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 9, platinum rose nearly 11%, silver futures rose over 8%, palladium rose over 7%, tin futures rose over 6%, lithium carbonate and gold futures rose over 3%, caustic soda rose over 2%, and international copper and copper futures rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, styrene (EB) fell over 2%, and log, ferrosilicon, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), manganese silicon, coke, asphalt, and apple fell over 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, lithium carbonate 2605, and rebar 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and ten - year treasury bonds 2603 had capital outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper Futures - On February 9, copper futures opened high and moved higher. The output in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%. The demand showed an increase in December 2025, but downstream procurement decreased during the holiday. The market is affected by factors such as changes in the Fed's expectations, the proposed improvement of the copper resource reserve system, and the traditional consumption off - season. In the short - term, it will be mainly in a narrow - range shock, and the long - term outlook for copper prices is optimistic [9][10] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. The average price increased slightly. The supply in February will decrease due to maintenance. The export from Chile in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand decreased during the holiday in February, but is expected to increase in March. The inventory is gradually shifting to the downstream. The price has stopped falling and stabilized, but it is difficult to rise sharply in the short - term, and the market is mainly in a consolidation phase [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected due to winter storms, but the global floating storage is high, and the supply is still in an oversupply situation. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asia. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have ended "temporarily", and the Iranian geopolitical risk is uncertain. The US - India trade and the Russia - Ukraine situation also affect the oil market. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate within a range in the near future [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased last week, and the expected output in February will decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it has increased. Some refineries have resumed production, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also decreased. The proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 9, the plastic start - up rate remained stable at a relatively high level. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the order volume decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate increased slightly, while the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export order volume decreased after the price increase. The social inventory increased, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend. The supply of coking coal has shrunk significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will also be restricted during the Spring Festival. The downstream winter storage is coming to an end, and the inventory is shifting to the downstream. The downstream steel trading volume is poor. The coking coal is expected to be in a weak consolidation state [21][22] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and moved high, showing a strong trend. The order - receiving situation before the Spring Festival is acceptable, and the price is stable. The gas - based devices have basically resumed production, and the production will be normal during the Spring Festival. The agricultural demand is good, and the industrial demand is weakening. The factory inventory is slightly digested. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected that the spot price is unlikely to drop before the festival, and the futures will fluctuate in a narrow range [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, driven by precious metals, the non - ferrous metals sector experienced a panic - driven sharp decline. On February 2nd, Shanghai copper hit the daily limit down, with a decline of about 9%. The nomination of the new Fed chair led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's credit and significant fluctuations in market sentiment. There are differences in the path of further interest rate cuts, and the market has entered a wait - and - see phase, increasing the volatility of asset prices [2]. - Although copper mine strikes in places like Chile have temporarily subsided, it confirms the fragility of mine production. The long - term structural supply shortage provides a solid bottom support for copper prices. In the short term, affected by the seasonal off - season, downstream production has stopped for holidays, and spot trading has stagnated. However, in the long run, the new energy transformation and AI infrastructure construction offer potential, and China's non - ferrous metals industry association's plan to improve the copper resource reserve system proves copper's strategic importance [2]. - The panic - driven sharp decline in copper prices this week was mainly due to profit - taking by long positions after the previous extreme increase and liquidity踩踏. Subsequently, the market entered a volatile repair phase with high volatility. With unclear macro - level guidance, pressure from the off - season on the demand side, and supply - side support, copper prices are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The non - ferrous metals sector had a panic - driven sharp decline last week, with Shanghai copper hitting the daily limit down on February 2nd. The new Fed chair's nomination led to market sentiment fluctuations and a wait - and - see attitude. The supply side has long - term structural support, while the demand side is affected by the off - season in the short term. Copper prices are expected to be volatile before the holiday [2]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - The report mentions that the latest US economic data and downstream demand recovery are factors to watch. It also provides weekly data on various copper - related indicators, such as the electrolytic copper price in Shanghai decreased by 4.58% week - on - week, the electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai increased by 117.86% week - on - week, and the LME copper inventory increased by 4.74% week - on - week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Futures Market Review**: The report includes graphs of the Shanghai copper price trend, London copper price trend, and the Shanghai - London copper ratio (without excluding exchange rates) [5][6][8]. - **Supply Situation Analysis**: It presents graphs related to copper concentrate forward spot prices, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, etc. [13]. - **Demand Situation Analysis**: Graphs about 1 electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization, and refined copper rod trading volume are provided [15][17]. - **Inventory Situation Analysis**: Graphs of electrolytic copper spot inventory and the inventory of three major futures exchanges are included [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market's confidence in the Fed has strengthened after the nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman, leading to a change in expectations for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US dollar has risen, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The copper price oscillated downward last week but stopped falling and stabilized after the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system. In the short term, there is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, the copper price is optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: Wash's nomination as Fed Chairman has boosted the confidence in the US dollar due to the expectation of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022. The January ADP new employment was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000, indicating weak labor market momentum. Non - farm employment data will be released this week, and Wash's interest rate cut path needs to be monitored [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In January, the copper production was 15,700 tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials. As the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, downstream industries entered the holiday mode, and procurement decreased [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper oscillated weakly, with a weekly high of 105,810 yuan/ton, a low of 97,920 yuan/ton, a weekly amplitude of 7.61%, and a range change of - 3.45% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of February 9, the average spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 115 yuan/ton. As the copper price corrected, downstream procurement sentiment increased, and the spot discount narrowed [11]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of February 6, the LME copper price fell 4.02% during the week, closing at $12,900/ton, with a spot premium of - $60/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [20]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year, and the operating rate will continue to decline this week, with little market trading [25]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of February 6, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $51.23/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will promote copper smelting capacity governance. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply In January, the electrolytic copper output was 15,700 tons more than expected and is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [38]. 3.10 Downstream Consumption - **Copper rod**: According to Mysteel's survey of 57 domestic refined copper rod sample enterprises, the capacity utilization rate in January was 54.44%, a 3.35% month - on - month and 5.93% year - on - year increase. In February, it was 34.62%, a 19.82% month - on - month and 17.76% year - on - year decrease. Some copper tube enterprises will stop production this weekend [42]. - **Power grid**: As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a 16.1% year - on - year increase. The solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a 35.4% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 640 million kilowatts, a 22.9% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts were 3,119 hours, 312 hours less than the previous year [47]. - **Real estate**: In December, the sales area of new commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease. The sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [53]. - **Automobile**: In January 2026, the estimated wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. From January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax was changed from exemption to half - collection. The "trade - in" subsidy for heavy trucks and buses continued, and the subsidy for passenger vehicles changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy [59]. 3.11 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 4.74% increase), and was 26.48% lower year - on - year. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 tons, a 1.97% week - on - week increase and 488.28% higher year - on - year. - On February 5, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 120,600 tons, still increasing during the week. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease, and the cathode copper inventory was 248,900 tons, a 6.83% week - on - week increase [64][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The copper market is characterized by cautious trading and price fluctuations, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,100, with a daily decline of 0.87%, and the night - session closing price was 101,490, with a night - session increase of 1.39%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,060, with a daily increase of 1.59% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 555,817, a decrease of 31,985 from the previous day, and the open interest was 583,895, a decrease of 16,062. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 25,610, a decrease of 4,624, and the open interest was 325,000, an increase of 298 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 160,172, a decrease of 507, and the LME Copper inventory was 183,275, an increase of 2,700. The LME Copper cancellation warrant ratio was 10.53%, a decrease of 0.52% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper basis was -70.95, an increase of 6.63 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 88,100, a decrease of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 40, an increase of 110 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The State Council executive meeting proposed to make good use of funds such as central budget - internal investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy - based financial instruments. The US - Iran nuclear talks reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" [1] - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter and will reduce investment in the Canadian copper refinery in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease from the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) has shown strong market activity, leading in turnover and trading volume among similar products, indicating a robust interest in the nonferrous metals sector [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) had a turnover rate of 28.68% and a trading volume of 291 million yuan, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1]. - The ETF experienced a net subscription of 285 million shares on its first day of listing, reflecting significant investor interest [1]. Group 2: Index and Sector Highlights - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, which has a notable allocation of over 10% to the rare earth sector, making it the third-largest industry in the index [3]. - The top two industries in the index are copper and aluminum, with expectations of limited supply growth in the coming years, suggesting potential for long-term price increases [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Mergers - Nonferrous metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are currently maintaining high levels, with a surge in mergers and acquisitions among international mining companies, particularly involving Chinese firms [4]. - Since the second half of 2025, Chinese mining companies have acquired nearly 60 billion yuan worth of overseas gold mines, indicating a clear trend of Chinese firms securing quality nonferrous resources globally [4]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME aluminum prices for the first half of 2026 from $2,575 per ton to $3,150 per ton, indicating a potential revaluation of aluminum prices [5]. - CICC has noted that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum will continue to widen in 2026, with supportive fiscal and monetary policies likely driving aluminum prices to new highs [5]. - Galaxy Securities highlights the importance of building a domestic copper resource reserve system to enhance supply chain resilience, predicting an expansion of the global copper supply gap and upward pressure on copper prices due to "security premiums" [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The US - Iran geopolitical situation is unclear, market risk - aversion and panic persist, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals have performed poorly in recent days. During the demand vacuum period, the fundamentals are temporarily weak. Therefore, Shanghai copper is mainly under pressure and consolidating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - From February 9, 2026 (Monday) closing settlement, the daily price limit range of listed copper contracts will be adjusted to 10%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions to 11%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions to 12% [1]. - In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0012 million tons (0.10%) and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. In February, no smelters are scheduled for maintenance, but the production in February will still be affected by the end - of - January maintenance of some smelters. It is expected that the output will decrease by 0.0358 million tons (3.04%) month - on - month and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [1]. - The high copper price in January suppressed copper demand. Downstream buyers mainly made rigid purchases, and the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end. The terminal new energy market performed poorly due to purchase tax issues, while other traditional industries and the power industry remained resilient [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 2% [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 60 yuan/ton. On February 5, 2026, the LME official price was $12,905/ton, and the spot premium was - $83/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $50.3/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a decrease of 507 tons from the previous period. As of February 5, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 89,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 180,600 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 586,400 short tons, an increase of 2,245 short tons from the previous period [13].

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the domestic initiative to build a copper resource reserve system aims to enhance the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain. The ongoing global geopolitical shifts and major power competition will lead to an expanded global copper deficit, resulting in an upward trend in copper prices due to a "security premium" [1] Group 1: Copper Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The construction of a copper resource reserve system in China is intended to improve the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain [1] - Global geopolitical changes are prompting countries to secure key minerals for resource supply safety and to build independent supply chains, which will exacerbate the global copper deficit [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Investment Opportunities - Short-term copper prices are influenced by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, but there is potential for recovery due to improving downstream demand, which supports the fundamental outlook [1] - Current valuations of certain core copper mining stocks in the A-share market show a high margin of safety for 2026, highlighting their investment value [1] - The outlook for copper prices is positive, with expectations for continued increases in the future [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report have been postponed. China's non - ferrous metal industry plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some copper smelting projects. In January, the output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but it is expected to decline in February. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the terminal new energy market performed poorly. The Chilean National Copper Commission has raised the 2026 copper price forecast. In the short term, the copper market is under pressure due to the approaching holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but it is expected to be strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The US has postponed the release of January non - farm payrolls and CPI reports. China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some smelting projects. The 1 - month SMM China electrolytic copper output was 117.93 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. It is expected to decrease by 3.04% month - on - month in February but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the new energy market was affected by purchase tax, while traditional and power industries showed resilience. The Chilean National Copper Commission raised the 2026 copper price forecast to $4.95 per pound. In the short term, the market is under pressure due to the holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 75 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 130 yuan/ton. On February 4, 2026, the LME official price was $13328/ton, and the spot premium was - 81 dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.3 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 16.07 million tons, an increase of 907 tons from the previous period. As of February 2, Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 9.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 18.06 million tons, an increase of 1925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 58.42 thousand short tons, an increase of 1892 short tons from the previous period [12]