1、财政部：7500亿元到期续作特别国债，即将发行 重要程度：★★★★★ 12月10日，财政部发布《关于2025年到期续作特别国债(一期和二期)发行工作有关事宜的通知》，拟于12 日在全国银行间债券市场面向有关银行定向发行2025年到期续作特别国债7500亿元，发行过程不涉及社会 投资者，个人投资者不能购买。 本次财政部拟发行的2025年到期续作特别国债(一期)、(二期)，期限品种分别为10年期4000亿元、15年期 3500亿元，在操作方式上依然参照此前多次特别国债续作方式。财政部有关负责人明确表示，2025年到期 续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债相对应，不增加财政赤字。 2、贵州茅台抛出300亿2025年中期分红计划 每股派发现金红利23.957元 重要程度：★★★★ 12月10日晚间，贵州茅台发布2025年中期权益分派实施公告，拟A股每股现金红利23.957元(含税)。本次利 润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,252,270,215股为基数，共计派发现金红利30,000,637,540.76元(含税)。 股权登记日为2025年12月18日，除权除息日为2025年12月19日，现金 ...

纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯在11月底的讲话中曾提到，经济增长已显现放缓迹象，劳动力需求也有所减弱。他同时表示，近期政策存在进一步调 整的空间。这一表态被市场解读为偏向温和，间接推动了市场对美联储未来可能实施宽松货币政策的预期升温。 周二亚洲交易时段尾声，国际白银价格在每盎司58.00美元附近呈现窄幅波动。市场整体交投情绪趋于谨慎，投资者普遍将目光聚焦于即将在周三公布的美 联储货币政策决议。 在这一关键事件落地前，白银作为无固定收益的贵金属，走势暂时进入横向整理阶段。 根据CME联邦观察工具的最新数据，目前市场预期美联储在12月政策会议上加息25个基点至3.50%-3.75%的可能性约为89.4%。这一预期在近期就业增长放 缓的背景下，进一步强化了市场对美联储可能转向鸽派立场的猜测。 整体来看，只要价格能稳定运行在主要均线之上，市场对银价的中期态度仍偏乐观。短线可能会出现技术性回调，但在趋势尚未被破坏之前，波动更像是强 势中的整理过程。随着关键经济数据的逐步公布，市场方向有望变得更加清晰。 为了更清晰地把握美国劳动力市场的实际状况，投资者正密切关注将于格林威治标准时间15:00发布的10月JOLTS职位 ...

对于即将到来的议息会议，市场普遍认为鹰派鲍威尔可能传递更为审慎的信息：比如，在降息的同时提 高未来进一步降息的门槛，以安抚委员会内部的鹰派成员。而影子美联储哈塞特也可能更快一步发 表"鸽派立场"——更宽松政策、通货再膨胀以及对美元信心下降的押注。 周一，根据Academy Securities策略师Peter Tchir的分析，市场为12月降息定价的概率高达95%。 美联储鲍威尔和美联储最有力的候选人——国家经济委员会主任哈塞特对降息有着不同的看法。这一人 事变动及其背后的政策协调预期，正在重塑市场对2025年货币政策路径的判断。 野村证券认为，如果市场"老实"地对"鹰派降息"做出反应，这就是一场流动性的逆转：债券和股票将因 获利回吐而走弱，美元则会走强，美股科技股和成长股面临估值压力。如果市场表现基于"哈塞特交 易"，美债收益率曲线将陡峭化，全球经济复苏预期升温，周期性股票将表现出色，而美元将再度承 压。 由于香港实行联系汇率制，美联储降息是鹰还是鸽，都将对港股市场带来一定影响。如果是鹰派降息， 港股反弹力度可能不及预期。在当前情况下，市场观点认为，港股市场更应选择港股央企红利 ETF(513910)这种基 ...

Group 1 - Dallas Fed President Logan issued a strong hawkish signal, opposing further rate cuts in December unless there is compelling evidence of declining inflation or a significant cooling in the labor market [1] - Logan emphasized that current inflation remains too high and is declining slower than expected, advocating for a slightly restrictive policy to ensure sufficient economic restraint [1] - In contrast, Fed Governor Milan argued that recent data supports further rate cuts, citing weakening inflation and labor market conditions [1] Group 2 - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt joined the hawkish camp, warning that further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's inflation credibility and that recent labor market weakness is due to structural factors [2] - Schmidt expressed concerns about inflation pressures from various sectors, advocating for stable rates and opposing recent rate cuts [2] - He also supported ending the balance sheet reduction process in December while suggesting measures to keep the Fed's balance sheet as small and non-distorting as possible [2] Group 3 - Boston Fed President Collins stated that rates should remain at current levels for some time to balance inflation above the Fed's 2% target and a weak labor market [3] - Other hawkish officials, including those from Chicago and Cleveland Feds, echoed similar sentiments, cautioning against further rate cuts [3] - Support for rate cuts came from officials like Milan, Miann, Waller, and Bowman, indicating a divided stance within the Fed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market's interpretation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent statements as "hawkish" may be a misjudgment, as Barclays believes Powell's true intention is to correct the market's overconfidence in an imminent rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the October FOMC meeting, Powell indicated that inflation still faces upward pressure and that there is significant disagreement within the committee regarding a potential rate cut in December, suggesting that a cut is not guaranteed [1]. - The market reacted to Powell's comments with a sell-off in 2-year Treasury bonds, leading to a significant rise in yields and a decline in U.S. stocks [1]. Group 2: Barclays' Analysis - Barclays argues that the market's panic is a misinterpretation, asserting that Powell's intention is not a shift to a hawkish stance but rather to manage the market's overly certain expectations of a rate cut [1][2]. - The analysis team at Barclays views Powell's communication as a strategy to counter the market's assumption that a rate cut is inevitable regardless of economic data [2]. Group 3: Economic Data Insights - Recent economic data does not support a hawkish position; instead, it provides a basis for further rate cuts, with indicators showing a slowdown in labor demand [3]. - Powell acknowledged recent weak data on inflation, with core inflation indicators showing a downward trend. Barclays believes that once tariff impacts are excluded, the underlying core PCE inflation is close to the 2% target [5]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Barclays suggests that if potential inflation is only slightly above the target and the unemployment rate is marginally above the natural rate, then the policy setting should be neutral [8]. - Current market pricing reflects only a cumulative 55 basis points of rate cuts by June 2026, which Barclays considers overly one-sided [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October is diminishing, but the central bank will maintain a hawkish stance in the short term without feeling an urgent need to raise rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan has already implemented a 60 basis point increase, which has led to a significant rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields [1] - The central bank is expected to act cautiously to avoid excessive tightening of the economy [1] Group 2: Economic Sentiment and Risks - Weak household confidence may limit the Bank of Japan's actions [1] - There is a potential risk of a sudden appreciation of the yen due to increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which could negatively impact Japan's exports and asset markets [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous close of 147.71 [1] - Political risks associated with the upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election may impact the yen [1] - If candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, the yen may initially weaken due to concerns over her dovish stance delaying the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Despite high inflation in Japan exceeding the central bank's target for three consecutive years, the possibility of an interest rate hike in October may not be completely ruled out even if Takaichi is elected [1] - The election outcome may not have a lasting impact on the yen, as seen in the case of candidate Shigeru Ishiba, whose initial strengthening of the yen was reversed due to his preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair previously failed to sustain a breakthrough above the 148.20 level, leading to a downward correction [2] - A key bearish trend line is forming, with resistance at the 148.00 level [2] - The USD/JPY faced selling pressure and dropped below the 148.00 level, further retreating below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement from 146.30 to 148.16 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision marks the official restart of the rate-cutting cycle, with an additional rate cut expected in 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's current position is described as the most dovish stance possible, acknowledging weaker-than-expected employment market performance [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision has been relatively muted, as the policy stance did not exceed market expectations [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1] - A single 50 basis point cut may not necessarily benefit the credit environment, suggesting a more gradual policy approach could be more favorable for market stability [1] Group 3: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is currently supported in the range of 97.70 to 97.90, with resistance at 98.30 to 98.50 [1] - A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards the 99 level, while a drop below 97.50 may result in a further decline towards 97.00 [1] - The RSI indicator shows weak momentum, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong retail sales and industrial production data in the U.S. for August, gold prices continue to rise, reaching historical highs [1][3]. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% [6]. - Industrial production in August showed a slight increase, with factory output rising by 0.1%, indicating moderate growth in manufacturing activities [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Weak employment data supports a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with market participants awaiting policy decisions and economic forecasts [2][4]. - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with minimal expectations for a 50 basis point cut [8]. - Deutsche Bank and other banks anticipate three rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations provides geopolitical support for gold prices [5]. Market Movements - The gold price reached a record high of $3,703 before retreating slightly, currently trading around $3,690 [3][12]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.74% to 96.62, while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Gold is hovering around $3,690, with bullish sentiment aiming for a challenge of the historical high, potentially extending to $3,750 and $3,800 [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting limited short-term upside [13].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its interest rates during the upcoming decision on September 11, aligning with long-standing views and current market expectations [1][2] - Economic data since the July meeting has shown mixed results, with August PMI slightly better than expected and a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2, although this may be revised down [1][2] - There are signs of anti-inflation since June, including the appreciation of the euro and higher-than-expected tariffs from the US on the EU, but the ECB's inflation forecasts are not expected to be downgraded [2] Group 2 - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that the current state is stable, indicating no intention for further rate cuts, which supports the view that data is insufficient to change policy in September [2] - The ECB's inflation target of 2% is likely to be missed in the coming year, with projections suggesting it may only be reached by 2027 [2] - Lagarde may be questioned about France's situation and the potential use of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), but it is anticipated she will avoid the topic, stating it is too early for such discussions [3]