Core Viewpoint - Trump's hesitation regarding the nomination of Kevin Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman has disrupted the recent calm in the U.S. Treasury market, with market participants reassessing potential interest rate paths based on different candidates' policies [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments, betting markets indicated a significant drop in Hassett's chances of being nominated, with former Fed governor Waller's probability rising to nearly 60% [1][3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.23%, the highest level since September 2 of the previous year, while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since December 9 [3][4]. Group 2: Candidate Analysis - Hassett was previously viewed as the leading candidate to succeed current Fed Chair Powell, known for his loyalty to Trump and potential to advocate for interest rate cuts. His exit could lead to a more hawkish candidate being appointed [3][6]. - Waller, in contrast, is seen as a more unpredictable candidate with a history of hawkish views, even advocating for rate hikes during the financial crisis. His recent calls for rate cuts have raised questions about his future policy direction [6][7]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The recent spike in Treasury yields followed a period of stability, with the 10-year yield trading within a narrow range of just 8 basis points earlier in the month [8][10]. - The low volatility in the Treasury market, indicated by the ICE BofA MOVE index dropping to its lowest level since September 2021, has contributed to the market's subdued activity [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, warns that if the U.S. central bank does not continue to lower interest rates next year, it may increase the risk of the economy falling into recession [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Milan indicates that while there is no immediate expectation of an economic downturn, the rising unemployment trend should prompt policymakers to maintain a more dovish stance [1] - Recent employment data suggests that the unemployment rate "may be higher than previously expected," which could drive the Fed's policy towards further easing [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Milan has advocated for more significant rate cuts, with his term ending in January next year [1] - The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points since September, reducing the necessity for a 50 basis point cut in the next meeting, although a final judgment has not been made [1] - The Fed's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points reflects internal divisions regarding future policy direction, with most officials expecting only one more cut next year [1] Group 3: Inflation and Labor Market Concerns - Some regional Fed presidents express concerns about inflation remaining nearly one percentage point above the 2% target, while rising unemployment exacerbates worries about a potentially weakening labor market [1] - The Fed faces a complex trade-off between stabilizing growth and controlling inflation due to these conflicting signals [1]

Group 1: Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 750 billion yuan of special government bonds maturing in 2025, with 400 billion yuan for a 10-year term and 350 billion yuan for a 15-year term [1] Group 2: Corporate Dividends - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling approximately 30 billion yuan, with the record date set for December 18, 2025 [2] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 5.0% for 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates, attributed to effective macroeconomic stimulus measures [6] Group 4: Semiconductor Market - Micron's NAND prices have surged nearly 50% in a month, with significant shortages expected post-Q2 2026, leading to concerns among module manufacturers about potential cost issues [4] Group 5: Strategic Collaborations - Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang have decided to strengthen strategic collaboration while terminating a major asset restructuring due to significant stock price fluctuations [7] Group 6: Aluminum Industry - The aluminum industry is experiencing high demand, with a 48.13% average increase in aluminum stock prices this year, driven by new breakthroughs in aluminum battery technology and limited supply growth [9]

Group 1 - International silver prices are fluctuating around $58.00 per ounce, with cautious trading sentiment prevailing in the market as investors focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision [1] - The market anticipates a 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 3.50%-3.75% at the December policy meeting, amid signs of slowing employment growth, which has fueled speculation of a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the October JOLTS job openings data, expected to show around 7.2 million new job postings, as a significant miss could heighten concerns over economic slowdown and increase the appeal of safe-haven assets like silver [2] Group 2 - Technically, silver prices have been oscillating between $56.58 and $59.34 for over a week, with short-term moving averages showing a bullish arrangement and the 20-day exponential moving average providing support [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near high levels, indicating strong upward momentum, although it has retreated from previous peaks, suggesting a potential slowdown in the upward pace without damaging the overall bullish structure [4] - As long as prices remain above key moving averages, the market outlook for silver remains optimistic, with potential short-term technical corrections viewed as a consolidation within a strong trend [4]

Group 1 - The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, according to Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir [1] - There is a divergence in views on rate cuts between Fed Chair Powell and NEC Director Hassett, which is reshaping market expectations for monetary policy in 2025 [1] - Nomura Securities suggests that if the market reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, it could lead to a liquidity reversal, weakening bonds and stocks while strengthening the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market will be affected by the Fed's rate cut stance, whether hawkish or dovish, with expectations that a hawkish cut may limit the rebound in Hong Kong stocks [2] - The market currently favors the Hong Kong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF (513910), which has a high dividend yield of 6.65% as of December 8, providing a strong safety net amid upcoming volatility [2]

Group 1 - Dallas Fed President Logan issued a strong hawkish signal, opposing further rate cuts in December unless there is compelling evidence of declining inflation or a significant cooling in the labor market [1] - Logan emphasized that current inflation remains too high and is declining slower than expected, advocating for a slightly restrictive policy to ensure sufficient economic restraint [1] - In contrast, Fed Governor Milan argued that recent data supports further rate cuts, citing weakening inflation and labor market conditions [1] Group 2 - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt joined the hawkish camp, warning that further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's inflation credibility and that recent labor market weakness is due to structural factors [2] - Schmidt expressed concerns about inflation pressures from various sectors, advocating for stable rates and opposing recent rate cuts [2] - He also supported ending the balance sheet reduction process in December while suggesting measures to keep the Fed's balance sheet as small and non-distorting as possible [2] Group 3 - Boston Fed President Collins stated that rates should remain at current levels for some time to balance inflation above the Fed's 2% target and a weak labor market [3] - Other hawkish officials, including those from Chicago and Cleveland Feds, echoed similar sentiments, cautioning against further rate cuts [3] - Support for rate cuts came from officials like Milan, Miann, Waller, and Bowman, indicating a divided stance within the Fed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market's interpretation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent statements as "hawkish" may be a misjudgment, as Barclays believes Powell's true intention is to correct the market's overconfidence in an imminent rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the October FOMC meeting, Powell indicated that inflation still faces upward pressure and that there is significant disagreement within the committee regarding a potential rate cut in December, suggesting that a cut is not guaranteed [1]. - The market reacted to Powell's comments with a sell-off in 2-year Treasury bonds, leading to a significant rise in yields and a decline in U.S. stocks [1]. Group 2: Barclays' Analysis - Barclays argues that the market's panic is a misinterpretation, asserting that Powell's intention is not a shift to a hawkish stance but rather to manage the market's overly certain expectations of a rate cut [1][2]. - The analysis team at Barclays views Powell's communication as a strategy to counter the market's assumption that a rate cut is inevitable regardless of economic data [2]. Group 3: Economic Data Insights - Recent economic data does not support a hawkish position; instead, it provides a basis for further rate cuts, with indicators showing a slowdown in labor demand [3]. - Powell acknowledged recent weak data on inflation, with core inflation indicators showing a downward trend. Barclays believes that once tariff impacts are excluded, the underlying core PCE inflation is close to the 2% target [5]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Barclays suggests that if potential inflation is only slightly above the target and the unemployment rate is marginally above the natural rate, then the policy setting should be neutral [8]. - Current market pricing reflects only a cumulative 55 basis points of rate cuts by June 2026, which Barclays considers overly one-sided [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October is diminishing, but the central bank will maintain a hawkish stance in the short term without feeling an urgent need to raise rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan has already implemented a 60 basis point increase, which has led to a significant rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields [1] - The central bank is expected to act cautiously to avoid excessive tightening of the economy [1] Group 2: Economic Sentiment and Risks - Weak household confidence may limit the Bank of Japan's actions [1] - There is a potential risk of a sudden appreciation of the yen due to increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which could negatively impact Japan's exports and asset markets [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous close of 147.71 [1] - Political risks associated with the upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election may impact the yen [1] - If candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, the yen may initially weaken due to concerns over her dovish stance delaying the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Despite high inflation in Japan exceeding the central bank's target for three consecutive years, the possibility of an interest rate hike in October may not be completely ruled out even if Takaichi is elected [1] - The election outcome may not have a lasting impact on the yen, as seen in the case of candidate Shigeru Ishiba, whose initial strengthening of the yen was reversed due to his preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair previously failed to sustain a breakthrough above the 148.20 level, leading to a downward correction [2] - A key bearish trend line is forming, with resistance at the 148.00 level [2] - The USD/JPY faced selling pressure and dropped below the 148.00 level, further retreating below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement from 146.30 to 148.16 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision marks the official restart of the rate-cutting cycle, with an additional rate cut expected in 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's current position is described as the most dovish stance possible, acknowledging weaker-than-expected employment market performance [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision has been relatively muted, as the policy stance did not exceed market expectations [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1] - A single 50 basis point cut may not necessarily benefit the credit environment, suggesting a more gradual policy approach could be more favorable for market stability [1] Group 3: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is currently supported in the range of 97.70 to 97.90, with resistance at 98.30 to 98.50 [1] - A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards the 99 level, while a drop below 97.50 may result in a further decline towards 97.00 [1] - The RSI indicator shows weak momentum, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1]