1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment [2][4]. - For copper, the adjustment of the US dollar will limit the price decline [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade with a downward bias [2][13]. - The continuous reduction in lead inventories will support its price [2][16]. - Tin is expected to trade within a range [2][18]. - Aluminum will continue to trade sideways, the center of gravity of alumina will move downward, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel prices will trade at low levels due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will trade sideways due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost factors [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Gold: The closing prices of various gold contracts showed increases. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2510 was 0.25%, and the night - session increase of Shanghai gold 2510 was 0.88%. The SPDR gold ETF's position increased by 9 tons to 1,005.72 tons [5]. - Silver: The prices of silver contracts also rose. The daily increase of Shanghai silver 2510 was 2.16%, and the night - session increase was 3.90%. The SLV silver ETF's position decreased by 28 tons to 15,361.84 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - The risk of a US government shutdown is high, and the release of the September non - farm payrolls report may be delayed. Fed Governor Bowman believes that the employment market is more vulnerable and advocates for decisive interest rate cuts [7][8]. - The EU will resume sanctions on Iran's nuclear - related issues, and Iran is prepared to respond to any threats [8]. 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 0; Silver trend intensity: 1 [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 82,470 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.29%. The trading volume and open interest of both Shanghai and London copper decreased [10]. - The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,105 tons to 26,557 tons, and the inventory of London copper decreased by 25 tons to 144,400 tons [10]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - US PCE inflation met expectations, giving the Fed more room to deal with the cooling labor market. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [10][12]. - Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold compared to the July estimate [10]. 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity: 0 [12]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.29%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai zinc decreased while that of London zinc increased [13]. - The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased by 990 tons to 57,573 tons, and the inventory of London zinc decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons [13]. 3.3.2 News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition [13]. 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity: - 1 [13]. 3.4 Lead 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,110 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The trading volume of Shanghai lead increased, and the open interest decreased, while the opposite was true for London lead [16]. - The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 820 tons to 34,764 tons, and the inventory of London lead decreased by 125 tons to 219,425 tons [16]. 3.4.2 News - US PCE inflation met expectations, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [16]. 3.4.3 Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity: 0 [16]. 3.5 Tin 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 274,070 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin increased, while the trading volume of London tin decreased slightly and the open interest increased [19]. - The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 199 tons to 6,077 tons, and the inventory of London tin increased by 35 tons to 2,775 tons [19]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - Similar to the news in the precious metals section, including the US government shutdown risk, PCE inflation data, and international political events [20]. 3.5.3 Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity: 0 [21]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,745 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,649 US dollars, also with a decline [22]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,901 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It generally follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. 3.6.2 Comprehensive News - China's industrial enterprise profits in August showed significant growth. US consumer spending increased for three consecutive months, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [23]. 3.6.3 Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: - 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [23]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume decreased, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain changes [24]. - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,840 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume increased significantly [24]. 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and many nickel - related industrial parks in Indonesia have production adjustments due to various reasons such as losses [24][25][27]. 3.7.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [30].

Core Insights - The U.S. consumer demonstrated resilience in August, with increases in both earnings and savings rates [1][2] Economic Indicators - Personal income rose by $95.7 billion, or 0.4% from the previous month, aligning with analyst expectations [2] - Disposable personal income also increased by 0.4%, indicating stable consumer financial health [2] - Personal saving reached $1.06 trillion in August, with a personal saving rate of 4.6%, up from 4.4% in the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [1][9] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was widely anticipated, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut reflected in futures markets prior to the announcement [1] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the expected number of rate cuts for the year from two to three, suggesting two additional 25 basis point cuts after the current one [1][12] Employment and Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding a slowdown in the job market have overshadowed inflation worries, prompting the Fed to adjust its focus on employment risks [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating heightened risks to employment [3] Voting Dynamics - In the recent FOMC meeting, 11 out of 12 voting members supported the 25 basis point cut, with only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposing it in favor of a 50 basis point cut [5][6] - The voting outcome did not reflect a significant division within the committee compared to previous meetings [7] Asset Reduction Strategy - The Fed reiterated its commitment to reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, maintaining a slower pace of balance sheet reduction since April [4] Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years while adjusting unemployment and inflation expectations [14][15] - The updated median projections indicate a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with inflation expected to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% by 2028 [15]

Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi and the simultaneous surge in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold rising by 3.0% to $3475.5 per ounce and COMEX silver increasing by 6.7% to $40.3 per ounce [2][39]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, while the French CAC40 dropped by 3.3%, indicating a bearish trend in developed markets [2][3]. - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA rising by 2.5% and India's SENSEX30 declining by 1.8% [3][11]. Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of political events in France, where a proposed €440 billion austerity plan led to a significant drop in the CAC 40 index and a spike in government bond yields, raising concerns about the stability of the French government [47]. - The U.S. Treasury auction results showed strong demand for short-term and floating rate bonds, with the 6-month bond receiving a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36, indicating robust investor interest [51][52]. Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. fiscal deficit for the year 2025 has reached $1.14 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.31 trillion and tax revenues of $3.29 trillion, reflecting a significant increase in government spending compared to the previous year [54][56]. - The article mentions that the Federal Reserve is facing pressure to lower interest rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September and further reductions in the following months [77][81]. Group 4 - The article reports that the U.S. PCE price index for July matched market expectations at 2.6%, while the core PCE index was at 2.9%, indicating stable inflationary pressures [81]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 229,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000, suggesting a resilient labor market [84].

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated that if the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin fails, the U.S. may intensify sanctions against Russia, including the potential for secondary tariffs [1][3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, international oil prices reacted, with Brent crude reaching $66.30 and WTI crude above $63.10 before experiencing a decline after Trump's remarks [3][5] - Analysts noted that geopolitical factors are driving oil prices, particularly in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation [5][7] Economic Insights and Consumer Impact - Goldman Sachs reported that the burden of tariff costs is increasingly falling on U.S. consumers, with their share expected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [5][7] - The firm projected that the PCE price index would increase to 3.2% year-over-year by December, up from 2.6% in June [5][7] - Trump's criticism of Goldman Sachs highlighted a disconnect between his views on tariffs and the economic realities presented by the firm [5][7] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, David Mericle, stated that if tariffs follow a similar trajectory as in February, consumers will bear a significant portion of the costs [7] - Mericle suggested that the Federal Reserve may consider minor interest rate cuts, but these would not significantly alter overall monetary policy [7] - Mnuchin also commented on the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current interest rates should be lower by 150 to 175 basis points, indicating a potential for rate cuts if data supports it [7]

Core Points - The PCE price index in the U.S. accelerated in June, reaching a year-to-date high, which has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][4] - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, also above the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February [3][4] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The rise in the PCE price index is attributed to higher gasoline prices and companies passing on tariff-related costs to consumers, with energy prices up by 0.9% in June [3][4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew by 0.3% in June, below the expected 0.4% [4] - Economists note that inventory accumulation by businesses has not yet been fully digested, and the impact of tariffs on prices has not been fully realized [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, resisting pressure for a rate cut from President Trump [4] - The latest inflation report complicates the Fed's path towards potential rate cuts, as officials seek more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target [4][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of addressing price increases without causing long-term inflation or unnecessary harm to the labor market [5]

Core Insights - The June core PCE price index year-on-year recorded 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.70% and revised from the previous value of 2.70% [1] - The overall PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both higher than market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5% respectively [1] - Personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, bringing the year-on-year rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February [1] Inflation Data - Inflation data for June was driven by rising prices of goods, including home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, indicating that import tariffs have been partially passed on to consumers [2] - A key indicator of service sector inflation, excluding energy and housing, rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month [3] - The June inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's interest rate timeline [3] Labor Market and Consumer Spending - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 218,000, with continuing claims at 1.95 million, unchanged from the previous week [4] - Despite a stable unemployment rate, many workers report longer job search times and difficulty finding opportunities, indicating underlying weakness in the labor market [4] - The economic data reflects a tug-of-war, with inflation pressures on one side and weak consumer spending on the other, leading to a split among Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff situation cooling down suppresses the market's risk - aversion tone, causing gold and silver prices to decline during the session. The framework trade agreement between the US and the EU on the 27th reduces concerns about global trade frictions and supports short - term market risk appetite [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has led to a slight recovery of the spot gold price from a two - week low, mainly due to risk mitigation from the US - EU agreement and increased overseas buying demand. However, as market risk appetite improves, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset has decreased [2]. - Future potential driving factors include the Fed's policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is strengthened, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. If the subsequent PCE growth rate is significantly lower than expected, it may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 8900 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold's main contract closing price is 774.78 yuan/gram, down 2.54; Shanghai Silver's main contract closing price is 9212 yuan/kilogram, down 180 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 209,675 lots, down 2,176; those of Shanghai Silver are 398,421 lots, down 52,406 [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold's main contract are 156,633 lots, down 424; those of Shanghai Silver are 129,149 lots, down 3,391 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,208,269 kilograms, up 21,015 [2]. - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 770.19 yuan/gram, down 3.01; the silver spot price is 9146 yuan/kilogram, down 245 [2]. - The basis of Shanghai Gold's main contract is - 4.12 yuan/gram, down 0.48; that of Shanghai Silver is 1 yuan/kilogram, up 36 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.09 tons, up 2.29; silver ETF holdings are 15,207.82 tons, unchanged [2]. - Gold's CFTC non - commercial net positions are 213,115 contracts, up 10,147; silver's CTFC non - commercial net positions are 59,448 contracts, up 927 [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 12.24%, up 0.06; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.76%, down 0.19 [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, down 0.03; that of at - the - money put options is 21.08%, down 0.03 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. Trump said the agreement would impose a 15% tariff on most European goods exported to the US. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment, and purchase $750 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs, and details of the trade agreement framework will be announced in the next few weeks [2]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said Trump's patience for Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict is running out [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.6% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that rising stock prices are contributing to increased PCE inflation, which could complicate the investment environment and limit future monetary policy options [1][2][3] - The report highlights that the stock market rebound is expected to contribute at least 6 basis points to core PCE inflation in June, reversing the previous drag on inflation from the investment management category [1][9] - The correlation between stock price changes and PCE investment management inflation is significant, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.245, indicating a notable relationship [4] Group 2 - In April and May, the investment management category was a drag on core inflation, but the recent stock market rebound suggests this will shift to being a driver of inflation in the coming months [3][9] - The overall impact of this "swing factor" is quantified to reach 7 basis points, making it difficult for core PCE to remain at low levels [7]