博时基金首席权益策略分析师 陈显顺 在低利率环境下，资管行业格局持续优化，公募基金作为工具化核心品类，规模稳步攀升。中基协数据显示，截至 2025年10月达36.96万亿元。展望2026 年，我们认为，公募基金规模有望增长。 2026新春寄语 特别策划 関 O 投资時報 t 投资喷间 展望2026年，行业积极发展背后是多重积极信号的共振："十五五"开局之年的政策红利有望持续释放，新质生产力相关赛道的产业升级与REITs市场的深 度扩容，为公募基金提供了穿越周期的优质资产池。而居民资产配置从不动产向金融资产迁移的长期趋势，正为行业注入源源不断的增量资金。 核心逻辑在于三方面：一是保险、个人养老金、社保基金等长期资金持续入市，形成增量支撑，市场乐观的预期指引使得各方资金有望受益；二是低利率 推动储蓄搬家，ETF、固收类等多元产品精准承接居民与理财资金；三是费率改革、长周期考核等行业政策红利持续释放，提升产品吸引力与投资者体 验。 但机遇之下，挑战亦不容忽视：全球宏观环境的不确定性仍存，美联储政策调整与海外通胀波动可能引发跨境资金流动，考验大类资产配置的精准度；同 时，理财替代背景下，投资者对"低波动收益"的诉求日 ...

中国证监会发布通知称，持续加大优质REITs供给，推动市场业态不断丰富、规模有序增长。完善 REITs扩募制度安排与市场化定价机制，积极探索多元、高效的扩募实施路径。此外，完善REITs发行 与交易机制，优化以市场化为导向的REITs估值与发行定价机制，规范推介、询价、定价、配售等发售 行为。结合不动产运营特点与风险收益特征，强化REITs信息披露和市场约束。 新华财经北京12月31日电（记者刘玉龙）12月31日，中国证监会正式印发《中国证监会关于推出商业不 动产投资信托基金试点的公告》及相关配套文件，自2025年12月31日起实施。 《公告》共八条，主要包括以下内容：一是产品定义，商业不动产REITs是指通过持有商业不动产以获 取稳定现金流并向基金份额持有人分配收益的封闭式公开募集证券投资基金。二是基金注册及运营管理 要求，明确基金管理人及基金托管人、尽职调查、申请材料、商业不动产等方面要求，以及基金管理人 的主动运营管理责任。三是发挥基金管理人和专业机构作用，压严压实责任，要求严格遵守执业规范和 监管要求。四是强化监管责任，明确各监管机构依法依规履行商业不动产REITs监管和风险监测处置等 职责。此外，商 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 总量研究 二级市场价格跌幅较大，市场交投热情环比下降 ——REITs 周度观察（20251215-20251219） 要点 1、 二级市场 2025 年 12 月 15 日-2025 年 12 月 19 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公 募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现逐日持续下跌的态势：加权 REITs 指数的本周 回报率为-2.74%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：可 转债>黄金>美股>纯债>A 股>原油>REITs。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 均有所下跌：产权类 REITs 回报率为-2.05%；特许经营权类 REITs 回报率为-3.83%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周各类 REITs 均有所下跌，其中，生态环保类 REITs 跌幅最小。本周回报率排名前三的底层资产类型分别为生态环保类、仓储物流类 和园区类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，排除本周上市的华夏安博仓储 REIT 后，有 2 只 REITs 上涨，有 75 只 REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面，本周有所上涨的分别是华安外高桥 REIT 和博时津开产园 REI ...

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Taibao Asset - Century Internet Data Center Holding Type Real Estate Green Asset Support Special Plan" marks a significant innovation in the multi-level REITs market for internet data centers (IDC) with a total issuance scale of 860 million yuan [1] - This project is the first green holding-type real estate ABS in the national data center industry and the second holding-type real estate ABS product for data centers in the country, showcasing a practical case for enhancing financial services to the real economy [1] - The cash flow from IDC operations is stable and predictable, primarily derived from service fees during the contract period, aligning with the essential characteristics of ABS underlying assets [1] Industry Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed a diversified product system including public REITs, holding-type real estate ABS, quasi-REITs, technology innovation special bonds, and exchangeable corporate bonds to match data center assets with appropriate financing channels [2] - Future efforts will focus on promoting the construction of the holding-type real estate ABS market, enhancing project implementation, and improving related mechanisms and supporting rules to drive high-quality development in this market [2]

Core Insights - The domestic economy has shown signs of recovery since 2025, leading to increased consumer confidence and spending, which has positively impacted the performance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the consumer infrastructure sector [2][3] - The consumer REITs market has become one of the most prominent sectors in the capital market this year, with 12 listed consumer infrastructure REITs achieving a total market capitalization of 41.865 billion yuan [2][3] - The average increase in the share prices of consumer REITs has significantly outperformed other types of REITs, with some newly listed products showing remarkable growth [4][5] Consumer REITs Performance - In 2025, five consumer infrastructure REITs were successfully listed, bringing the total to 12, with a notable diversification in asset types from traditional shopping centers to outlets [3][4] - Key financial metrics for consumer REITs have remained high, with average occupancy rates of 97.20% and collection rates of 99.65% reported in Q3 2025, indicating strong operational resilience [4][6] - The top-performing consumer REITs have shown significant price increases, with the highest being 71.36% for the E-Fund Huawai Market REIT [4][5] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The REITs market is viewed as a "blue ocean" with potential for future growth, although the current transformation path remains unclear [2][7] - The introduction of policies to facilitate the expansion of REITs, such as reducing the listing period for expansion from 12 months to 6 months, is expected to drive growth in the sector [6][9] - The operational capabilities of REITs are becoming increasingly important for performance differentiation, with a focus on optimizing brand portfolios and enhancing asset appeal [6][9] Industry Insights - The REITs market in China is still in its nascent stage, with a total market size of over 200 billion yuan, which is relatively small compared to the global REITs market of 2 trillion USD [7][9] - Industry experts emphasize the need for innovative thinking and learning from mature markets like Japan and Singapore to enhance the development of China's REITs [7][9] - The REITs model is seen as a solution to the challenges of real estate investment, providing liquidity and flexible exit options for investors, thereby transforming the investment and management landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - The C-REITs market experienced a peak followed by a correction in 2025, but has now stabilized after hitting a bottom. The demand for quality assets remains strong in the short to medium term, with policy benefits expected to emerge by the end of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, three factors drove the REITs market to a record high, but a correction occurred in the second half due to capital diversion to equities, a weakening bond market, and pressure on the underlying fundamentals [2]. - The A-share indices have rebounded significantly, increasing market risk appetite and leading funds to favor high-elasticity assets, which has put pressure on REITs market liquidity [2]. - The bond market's decline has compressed spreads, while REITs' cash distribution rates have not adjusted accordingly, reducing the comparative advantage of REITs over interest rate bonds [2]. - The underlying asset fundamentals are under pressure, with sectors like industrial parks, highways, and logistics facing declining demand and intensified competition, leading to weakened profitability [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - There is a continued divergence in the fundamentals across various sectors, with a focus on stable performance in counter-cyclical assets [3]. - The operational capabilities of the consumer infrastructure sector are highlighted, with fundamentals expected to remain stable [3]. - Policy-supported sectors such as affordable rental housing and municipal environmental protection show significant counter-cyclical advantages, with the rental rate for affordable housing reaching 97.3% in Q3, up 0.3% from the previous quarter [3]. - However, market-driven real estate sectors, such as research and office buildings, face dual challenges of declining demand and increased competition [3]. Group 3: Policy Outlook - There is ample room for policy benefits to be released, particularly regarding index products [4]. - In the short term, policies for index products and other incremental funding are poised to be launched, accelerating the expansion of the multi-tiered REITs market [4]. - In the medium to long term, regulatory measures are expected to promote the healthy development of the REITs market through special legislation, the introduction of incremental funds, and enhanced active management [4]. - The current conditions indicate that the REITs index products are ready for launch, with attention on their potential positive impact on the market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - There are opportunities for allocation following the market correction, with a focus on selective projects in the primary market and three main lines in the secondary market: counter-cyclical assets, improving economic conditions, and strong fundraising demands from original equity holders [5]. - In the primary market, it is recommended to select projects with larger spreads and superior assets, while exercising caution with long lock-up period allocations [5]. - The secondary market should concentrate on three main lines: 1) counter-cyclical sectors with stable fundamentals; 2) related assets with marginal recovery in economic conditions; 3) assets with strong fundraising demands and quality reserves [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The REITs market continued to decline this week, with the park and warehousing logistics sectors leading the decline. The market is still concerned about their pressure on occupancy rates. The Shenyang International Software Park REIT listed on Thursday, showing a dismal performance and breaking its issue price on the first day, which may suppress the market sentiment for subsequent new products. The short - term weak and volatile pattern may continue [2]. - As of November 7, 2025, 18 REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 25.8%. This week, 3 first - issued public REITs made new progress [2]. - This week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1041.51 points, a decline of 0.40%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.22 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 2.63 percentage points. In terms of project attributes, equity - type REITs fell by 0.84%, while franchise - type REITs rose by 0.15%. In terms of asset types, the consumption, data center, environmental protection and water services, and transportation sectors performed better [2]. - In terms of liquidity, the average daily turnover rates of equity - type and franchise - type REITs this week were 0.60% and 0.45% respectively, down 8.70BP and 0.36BP from last week. The trading volumes were 577 million and 129 million shares respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.78% and 0.79%. The data center sector was the most active [2]. - In terms of valuation, the yields of equity - type and franchise - type REITs according to ChinaBond valuations were 3.89% and 4.07% respectively. The warehousing logistics, transportation, and park sectors ranked among the top three [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Market: 3 First - issued Public REITs Made New Progress - As of November 7, 2025, a total of 77 REITs have been issued, with a total issuance scale of 202 billion yuan, a total market value of 220.6 billion yuan, and a circulating market value of 110.9 billion yuan. Among them, there are 55 equity - type REITs and 23 franchise - type REITs [13]. - This week, 3 first - issued REITs made new progress: the CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT was listed, the Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT was under inquiry, and the E Fund Guangxi Beitou Expressway REIT was accepted. There was no new progress in the expansion and fundraising of REITs this week [14][15]. 3.2 Second - level Market: Liquidity Declined This Week 3.2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Fell by 0.4% - This week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1041.51 points, a decline of 0.4%. It underperformed the CSI 300 by 1.22 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 2.63 percentage points. The CSI REITs Total Return Index has risen by 7.61% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the CSI 300 by 11.30 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 4.54 percentage points [2]. - In terms of project attributes, equity - type REITs fell by 0.84%, while franchise - type REITs rose by 0.15%. In terms of asset types, the consumption (+0.41%), data center (+0.29%), environmental protection and water services (+0.28%), and transportation (+0.26%) sectors performed better [2]. 3.2.2 Liquidity: Both Turnover Rate and Trading Volume Decreased - The average daily turnover rates of equity - type and franchise - type REITs this week were 0.60% and 0.45% respectively, down 8.70BP and 0.36BP from last week. The trading volumes were 577 million and 129 million shares respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.78% and 0.79%. The data center sector was the most active [2]. 3.2.3 Valuation: The Valuation of the Affordable Housing Sector was Relatively High - According to ChinaBond valuations, the yields of equity - type and franchise - type REITs were 3.89% and 4.07% respectively. The warehousing logistics (5.53%), transportation (4.96%), and park (4.63%) sectors ranked among the top three [2]. 3.3 This Week's News and Important Announcements - On November 4, 2025, Li Ming, the vice - chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the 2025 International Financial Leaders Investment Summit that support would be provided to include RMB stock trading counters, REITs, etc. in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [31]. - This week, there were several important announcements, including the release of restricted shares of some REITs and dividend announcements [31].

Core Viewpoint - The REITs market is experiencing significant changes, presenting new opportunities and investment strategies for wealth growth [1]. Group 1: Conference Highlights - The forum features industry experts discussing market opportunities and investment strategies in the REITs sector [1]. - The agenda includes a session on annual REITs strategy led by key figures from Guotai Junan Securities [1]. Group 2: Key Speakers - Tang Yuanmao, head of fixed income research at Guotai Junan Securities, will open the session [1]. - Zhang Zheng, vice dean of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, will provide insights on the outlook for China's REITs market [1].

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has maintained a robust supply and demand dynamic since 2025, with increasing market attention and a total of 127 valid questionnaires collected during the annual market survey conducted from September 25 to September 30 [2] Group 1: Market Participants and Investment Strategies - Securities firms and insurance institutions are the main participants in the market, with over 30% of insurance and over 40% of securities firms having cumulative investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][11] - Institutions are diversifying their investment strategies, with a high interest in new issuance strategies, while over 30% of institutions are exploring private REITs investment opportunities [4][16] - The majority of institutions still rely on offline/public subscription and secondary market participation as their main investment methods, with a notable increase in the use of entrusted accounts for REITs investments [4][16] Group 2: Market Size and Liquidity Concerns - Market size and liquidity remain significant concerns, with many investors indicating that the market is still too small and lacks sufficient liquidity, similar to last year's survey results [5][29] - Nearly 70% of sample institutions plan to increase their REITs allocation in 2026, focusing on sectors such as consumption, data centers, and affordable rental housing [5][33] - Institutions have a cautious outlook on returns, with about 60% expecting REITs market returns to be in the high single-digit range (5-10%) for 2026 [5][33] Group 3: Private REITs and Future Outlook - Over 30% of institutions are paying attention to private REITs, which have seen a faster issuance pace this year, with 14 listed holding-type real estate ABS totaling 21.4 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [23] - Institutions perceive private REITs as having advantages such as stronger valuation stability, flexibility, and higher distribution rates compared to public REITs, although concerns about liquidity and transparency remain [23][29] - The market is expected to see a gradual increase in private REITs issuance, which could become an important part of a multi-tiered REITs market [23] Group 4: Institutional Confidence and Sector Focus - Institutions exhibit a neutral to optimistic attitude towards the recovery of underlying asset fundamentals in 2026, with a focus on stable sectors such as consumption infrastructure, data centers, and affordable rental housing [41] - The top three sectors of interest for insurance and securities firms differ slightly, with insurance firms favoring consumption, affordable housing, and water and electricity, while securities firms prefer consumption, data centers, and affordable housing [41][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP and M1 showing positive changes while others like manufacturing PMI and fixed - asset investment have declined [1]. - In the commodity market, industrial enterprises' profit recovery is evident, especially in high - tech manufacturing, and various policies are expected to boost service consumption [2][3]. - The bond market has complex movements with different trends in yields of different types of bonds, and the stock market experiences significant fluctuations [21][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, showing a decline compared to the previous month [1]. - M1 in July 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.6%, a significant increase from the previous month and a sharp turnaround from the negative growth last year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference - From January to July, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.02035 trillion yuan, and business revenue increased by 2.3% year - on - year. In July, the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% [2]. - From January to July, China completed 1.95 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment, with 306.1 billion yuan in July [2]. - Next month, policies to expand service consumption will be introduced, and policies to promote service exports will be publicly released soon [3]. Financial News Compilation - On August 27, the central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan [14]. - In July, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. The new kinetic energy index of China's economy in 2024 increased by 14.2% [15]. - The trade volume between China and SCO member states reached a record high in 2024, about 512.4 billion US dollars, a 2.7% increase from the previous year [16]. Bond Market Summary - Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bond yields showed mixed trends, and treasury bond futures rose across the board. Most of the Vanke bonds and Shenzhen Metro Group bonds declined [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 2.82%. The yields of US bonds collectively declined, and the yields of European bonds showed mixed trends [22][24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1622 on August 27, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.04% [27]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the REITs market has reached an inflection point and is expected to reach a new high in the fourth quarter [28]. - CICC points out that the Hong Kong stock market underperformed the A - share market in July due to liquidity, fundamentals, and valuation factors, but may be supported by expected Fed rate cuts [28]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income suggests that the absolute value of credit bonds is gradually emerging, and a dumbbell - shaped strategy can be considered [29]. Stock Market Highlights - A - share major indices fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.27% [32]. - In the first seven months of this year, Hong Kong maintained its global leadership in the new - stock market, with 51 IPOs and a sharp increase in fundraising [32].