Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The foreign exchange market in August 2025 showed stable trading conditions, with a slight year-on-year decline in average daily trading volume. The US dollar index weakened, while the Chinese yuan accelerated its appreciation. The domestic foreign exchange differential turned positive, indicating strong selling pressure towards the end of the month. The options market reflected a rising short-term appreciation expectation for the yuan, and the narrowing of the US-China interest rate differential led to a significant increase in long-term swap points. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.1% [2] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $136.03 billion, down 9.3% year-on-year and 7.7% month-on-month [2] Group 2: US Dollar and Yuan Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fell from around 100.25 to 98.72, closing at 97.7710, marking a 2.29% depreciation for the month [3] - The yuan's central parity rate appreciated significantly, reaching 7.1030 by the end of the month, the highest since November 2024, with an onshore yuan closing at 7.1330, appreciating 0.83% for the month [4] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Differential - The domestic foreign exchange differential shifted from negative to positive, with the average differential for the month at -28 basis points, and the maximum differential recorded at -97 basis points [5] - The onshore yuan appreciated by 1.02% against the offshore yuan by the end of the month [5] Group 4: Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the yuan foreign exchange options market was $5.83 billion, down 22.5% month-on-month [6] - The implied volatility for the yuan showed signs of rising short-term appreciation expectations, with the 1-month ATM implied volatility rebounding to 2.86% by month-end [6] Group 5: Interest Rate Differentials and Swap Points - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased to 4.23%, leading to a narrowing of the US-China interest rate differential to -239 basis points, a reduction of 32 basis points from the previous month [7] - The 1-year swap points rose significantly to -1583 basis points, marking a 232 basis point increase, the highest since March 2023 [8] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity and Interest Rates - The dollar liquidity remained loose, with the SOFR fluctuating around 4.34% throughout the month [9] - The domestic dollar borrowing rates showed a slight upward trend, with the overnight borrowing rate ending at 4.28% [10]

（责任编辑：蔡情） 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月18日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1085元，1欧元对人民币8.4025元，100日元对人民币4.8396元，1港元对人民币0.91419 元，1英镑对人民币9.6899元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.7292元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2172元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5611元，1瑞士法郎对人民币9.0161元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1619元，人民币1元对1.1275 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59009马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.7952俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4463南 非兰特，人民币1元对194.38韩元，人民币1元对0.51668阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52778沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.3970匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50637波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8883丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3067瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.3801挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.81058土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5774墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4721泰铢。 中国经济网北京9月18日讯 今 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a resumption of the easing cycle since December of the previous year [1][2] - The decision to lower rates comes amid signs of slowing economic activity, with employment growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating that labor market conditions were solid, reflecting a shift in focus towards employment risks [2] Group 2 - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, while gold prices surged, briefly exceeding $3,700 per ounce [1][7] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may lower rates further, with predictions of two additional cuts in 2025 and a potential reduction to around 3% in the future [5][6] - Financial institutions anticipate further rate cuts in October and December, with some predicting a total reduction of 100 basis points by January [6] Group 3 - The Fed's decision has implications for global monetary policy, potentially opening up space for other central banks to ease their policies as well [6] - The announcement led to a mixed reaction in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones index rising slightly while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines [9] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds shifted downward following the rate cut, with expectations of positive excess returns for 10-year bonds [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points has significant implications for international financial markets, leading to a decline in the US dollar and an increase in gold prices [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Cut - On September 17, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a resumption of the easing cycle since December of the previous year [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the US dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, while spot gold prices surged above $3700 per ounce [1][3][12]. - The decline in the dollar and the rise in gold prices reflect market adjustments to the new monetary policy stance [1][12]. Economic Indicators - The FOMC noted a slowdown in economic activity, with employment growth weakening and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [6]. - Inflation rates have risen and are maintained at slightly elevated levels, prompting the Fed to adjust its policy to support maximum employment and a 2% inflation target [6]. Future Rate Expectations - Predictions suggest that the Fed may lower rates further, potentially reaching a neutral level of around 3% [3][10]. - The dot plot indicates that most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, with varying opinions on the timing and extent of future cuts [9][10]. Global Monetary Policy Impact - The Fed's easing stance may influence other central banks to adopt similar policies, as seen with the Bank of Canada also cutting rates by 25 basis points [10]. - Analysts believe that the Fed's actions could create favorable external conditions for domestic monetary policy easing in other countries, including China [10]. Financial Market Implications - The announcement of the rate cut led to a mixed response in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experiencing declines, while the Dow Jones index saw a slight increase [14]. - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds shifted downward, indicating expectations of lower interest rates in the future [12].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months, aimed at addressing signs of economic slowdown rather than a full-blown crisis [1][2] - The current economic context is characterized by "stagflation," with slowing growth and relatively high inflation, as indicated by a core PCE year-on-year growth of 2.86% and a core CPI growth of 3.2% [2] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The rate cut is anticipated to have a threefold positive impact on Chinese assets, including expanded monetary policy space, stabilization and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and accelerated capital reallocation [2][5] - The Chinese capital market is expected to see a wave of foreign capital inflow, benefiting from the easing of external monetary policy constraints [5] Group 3: Opportunities in A-shares and H-shares - In the A-share market, three sectors are identified as clear beneficiaries: technology growth sectors (TMT, semiconductors, AI), large financial sectors (banks, brokerages, insurance), and high-dividend stocks (electricity, oil, state-owned enterprises) [2][10] - The H-share market is more sensitive to external liquidity, with significant foreign capital allocation towards software, services, and technology hardware sectors, driven by advancements in AI technologies [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry Benefits - The automotive industry is poised to benefit from both policy and funding advantages, with a target of achieving approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 3% [6] - The expected sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to reach around 15.5 million, reflecting a growth of approximately 20% [6] - The rate cut will lower financing costs for automakers, enhance consumer confidence, and support overall consumption, particularly in the automotive sector [7][8] Group 5: Commodity and Bond Market Effects - The rate cut is expected to positively influence the commodity and bond markets, with industrial metals like copper and aluminum anticipated to break upward, and gold prices receiving short-term support [9] - The bond market is likely to see a clear downward trend in interest rates, enhancing the investment value of government and interest rate bonds [9] Group 6: Asset Allocation Strategy - Experts recommend prioritizing equity assets in the current environment, particularly in technology growth, high-dividend blue chips, and large financial sectors, while suggesting moderate allocation to bond assets [10] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential overvaluation in certain sectors due to pre-existing rate cut expectations [10]

Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].

航司主要增投国际线运力，国内线客座率高位 供需：行业客座率高位，运力同比增速放缓。根据民航局公布的2025年7月行业最新数据，2025年7月行 业ASK、RPK同比分别+5.5%、+6.1%，较2019年同期+22.8%、+24.2%，相应客座率达到84.5%，同比 +0.5pct，较2019年同期+0.9pct。分地区看，国内线周转量同比增长3.9%，国际及地区恢复到2019年的 100.3%。从六大航司停飞21天的飞机比例情况看，2025年第36周(9.1-9.7)停飞21天的飞机比例为 2.74%，同比提升0.75pct，暑运出行结束，各航司飞机停飞比例环比增加。 票价：八月票价跌幅环比上月收窄。2025年年初至今(截至9.15)，国内平均票价864元，同比-8.8%。7、 8月暑运期间行业平均票价同比分别-8.8%、-7.3%，8月票价跌幅环比收窄。9月上半旬(至9.15)行业平均 票价同比-6.2%，九月初暑运结束、票价跌幅环比扩大，此后再次收窄。过去四周(8.18-8.24、8.25- 8.31、9.1-9.7、9.8-9.14)周度平均票价同比分别-7.0%、-6.9%、-8.2%、-5.1%。 ...

新华财经北京9月17日电（马萌伟）亚洲交易时段早盘，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.10关口，最高升至7.0995，为去年11月以来首次。日 内，人民币兑美元中间价继续走高，上调14点报7.1013。 中金外汇表示，目前市场已充分预期美联储9月将降息一次，并将关注美联储对后续通胀、劳动力市场变化的看法，以及点阵图披露的降 息展望。人民币波动率的抬升还有赖内外部环境的共振，例如美联储降息的前景、境内股市的走向，以及中间价的变动等，若内外部环 境推动即期汇率走强、中间价调升的正向循环，人民币汇率有望恢复升值，否则或将保持偏低波动。 经济学家盘和林表示，当前人民币兑美元升值的关键动力是美联储降息预期。美国经济数据强化了市场对9月份降息预期，导致近期美元 指数波动下行，为包括人民币在内的非美货币带来了被动升值动能。而除美联储降息预期外，中国资本市场最近对外资的吸引力增强， 外国金融资本流入也在一定程度推高了人民币汇率。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，伴随美联储降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数还将承受一 定下行压力，这将为人民币带来升值动能。结合四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响会逐步显现，而逆 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，近日人民币对美元汇率走高，主要是美联储9月份降息已是"板上钉钉"，且市场对年 底前美联储还可能有进一步较大幅度降息的预期升温，美元显著下行，这给包括人民币在内的非美货币带来较强的被动升值动 能。另外，近期国内股市保持强势，外资加速流入。在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也在改善汇市情绪。同时，近期人民币中间 价继续在偏强方向调控。 "综合各类影响因素，我们判断短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态。"王青说。 （编辑 才山丹） 本报记者 刘琪 9月17日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.1，为2024年11月7日以来首次。Wind数据显示，截至《证券日报》记者发稿 时，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.0999，亦创去年11月7日以来新高；9月份以来，离岸人民币对美元汇率涨幅达 0.26%。 ...

9月17日人民币汇率中间价如下： 新华社北京9月17日电 中国外汇交易中心9月17日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 100美元 710.13人民币 100欧元 842.49人民币 100日元 4.8510人民币 100港元 91.278人民币 100英镑 969.24人民币 100澳元 474.7人民币 100新西兰元 425.21人民币 100新加坡元 556.6人民币 100瑞士法郎 903.27人民币 100加元 516.71人民币 100人民币112.9澳门元 100人民币59.083马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1170.61俄罗斯卢布 100人民币244.25南非兰特 100人民币19423韩元 100人民币51.736阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.838沙特里亚尔 100人民币4620.49匈牙利福林 100人民币50.417波兰兹罗提 100人民币88.58丹麦克朗 100人民币129.96瑞典克朗 100 ...