"现在就假设关税不会产生通胀压力还为时过早，"卡尔瓦西纳等RBC策略师们在周日发布的一份研究报告中写道，该报告发布 时正值欧盟与美国宣布正式达成贸易协议之后。"如果在关税重压之下，美国企业对下半年以及2026年的利润展望并不像投资 者们一直预期的那样乐观，这也会给屡创新高的美国股市走势带来巨大的回调风险。" 随着散户与机构投资者们押注美国企业盈利增长将继续强劲，美国股市已反弹至历史最高位且多个交易日创下历史新高。据 Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的数据，Q2美股财报季截至目前，约82%的标普500指数成份公司的第二季度整体盈利超出华尔街普 遍预期，为近四年来最高的超预期比例。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管本季美国财报季开局强劲，但来自加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的策略师团队认 为，现在就排除特朗普关税政策对美国通胀和企业盈利造成的影响为时尚早。由华尔街顶级策略师洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)领衔的RBC策略团队表示，初步趋势显示，美国企业迄今对特朗普发起的新一轮贸易战表现出韧性，然而，RBC表 示，该机构调查显示多位美国大型企业的高管警告称， ...

Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]

Group 1 - Wall Street professionals are closely monitoring an upcoming critical week that may set the tone for the US stock market and economy for the remainder of the year, with key events including the Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from major tech companies like Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft [1][2] - The S&P 500 companies have generally exceeded expectations, with profits increasing by 4.5% compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential recovery in the second half of the year [2][3] - Consumer demand is being driven by wealthier consumers, with companies like American Airlines and United Airlines reporting strong demand for premium services, while Chipotle has lowered its earnings forecast due to pressure on low-income consumers [3][4] Group 2 - Economic uncertainty persists as the impact of tariffs begins to show, with economists predicting a slowdown in consumer spending and a potential rise in unemployment [4][5] - Despite uncertainties, the stock market remains at historical highs, supported by signals of a strong labor market and corporate earnings exceeding lower expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Q2 earnings season for U.S. stocks indicates that corporate earnings are robust, potentially alleviating concerns about the overheated market following record highs in stock prices [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Approximately one-third of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with about 83% exceeding analyst expectations, potentially marking the highest "surprise" ratio since Q2 2021 [1][4]. - Prior to the earnings season, the expected year-over-year earnings growth for S&P 500 companies was 2.8%, but the current overall growth rate has reached 4.5% [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The S&P 500 index has risen 28% since its low on April 8, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 also reaching record highs, as concerns over tariffs have diminished and investors return to the market [4]. - Companies like Alphabet, D.R. Horton, and Netflix have expressed optimism about their future prospects, with Alphabet citing increased demand for AI products [5]. - The labor market remains resilient, as evidenced by a decline in initial jobless claims for six consecutive weeks, which may reassure investors [5]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is approximately 22.5, compared to the 10-year average of 18.6, raising concerns about high valuations and limited margin for error [5][6]. - Companies failing to meet both earnings and revenue expectations are facing the most severe stock price penalties since Q3 2022 [6]. - There are signs of "bubble" behavior in the market, with meme stocks experiencing significant price increases reminiscent of the extreme investor enthusiasm seen in 2021 [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in Japanese stock markets driven by a trade agreement with the U.S., but it also raises concerns about potential market corrections due to overbought conditions and historical precedents of market crashes [1][2][5] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange Index and Nikkei 225 Index saw a cumulative increase of over 3% following the announcement of a 15% tariff by the U.S. on Japan, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index closing at 2977.55 points, surpassing its previous historical high set on July 11, 2024 [1] - Technical indicators, such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching approximately 79, suggest that the market is nearing overbought territory, similar to conditions observed before last year's market crash [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts express caution regarding the rapid market rise, referencing the market crash in August 2024 triggered by unexpected interest rate hikes and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan, which could lead investors to reassess risks despite current macroeconomic drivers [2] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index stands at 15.7, close to the 15.87 level seen before last year's downturn, indicating that stock valuations need to be supported by corporate earnings as the earnings season approaches [5] - Foreign investors have been net buyers of Japanese stocks for 15 consecutive weeks, but underlying political and fiscal issues in Japan, including concerns over government bond yields, could complicate the market outlook [6]

Market Performance - The US stock market reached new highs on July 21, with the Nasdaq Composite Index surpassing 21,000 points for the first time, peaking at 21,077.37 points and closing up 0.38% at 20,974.17 points [1] - The S&P 500 Index also set a record, hitting an intraday high of 6,336.08 points and closing up 0.14% at 6,305.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed relative weakness, declining 0.04% to close at 44,323.07 points [1] - The S&P 500's communication services sector led the gains with a 1.90% increase, followed by consumer discretionary at 0.60%, while the energy sector was the biggest loser, down 0.96% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks drove the market's rise, with Alphabet up 2.72%, Meta up 1.23%, Amazon up 1.43%, and Apple up 0.62%, although Tesla saw a decline of 0.35% despite earlier gains [2] - The upcoming earnings reports from Tesla and Google are anticipated to be critical in assessing the market's high valuations [2] Corporate Earnings - Strong corporate earnings are a key catalyst for market growth, with over 85% of the 62 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeding market expectations, significantly above the long-term average of 48% [4] - The seven major tech companies expected to report earnings are projected to lead a 14.1% growth in S&P 500 earnings for the quarter [4] Currency Impact - The US dollar index fell 0.62% to 97.84, creating a favorable exchange rate environment for US companies' overseas revenues [4] - Goldman Sachs' analysis suggests that a 10% decline in the dollar could increase S&P 500 earnings per share by approximately 2% to 3% [4] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's tariff threats continue to loom over the market, with new tariffs expected to be implemented in two weeks [6] - Despite the uncertainty, the market has shown resilience, partly due to the expectation that final tax rates may be lower than proposed [6][8] Federal Reserve Outlook - There are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for a rate cut in July due to economic risks, while market expectations for a rate cut have cooled [8] - The probability of a rate cut in September is now seen as exceeding 50% [8] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is nearing historical highs, raising concerns about market valuations [10] - Despite these concerns, Wall Street remains relatively optimistic, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, reaching 6,900 points [10] Key Upcoming Events - The market will focus on key upcoming events, including earnings guidance from tech giants like Tesla and Google, signals from the Federal Reserve, and developments in tariff negotiations [10]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, while the Nasdaq experienced a decline, primarily due to the underperformance of the semiconductor sector [3] - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies will be crucial in determining whether their performance can support current valuations and impact the sustainability of the S&P 500's new high [3] - Trade agreements announced by Trump with the Philippines and Indonesia may have long-term implications for industries such as agriculture and manufacturing, warranting careful observation [3] Group 2 - The commodity market shows mixed signals, with oil prices declining for three consecutive days, while gold prices rose above $3,440, and copper prices increased by over 2%, indicating complex market expectations regarding global economic recovery [4] - European stock indices mostly declined, suggesting that global market sentiment is not uniformly optimistic [5] - The overall market dynamics highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in investment, as short-term fluctuations may present opportunities if the underlying fundamentals remain strong [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context and characteristics of the eight major bull markets in China's A-share market, highlighting their duration, percentage increases, and the economic and policy backgrounds that contributed to these market movements [2][28]. Summary by Sections Historical Bull Markets - The A-share market has experienced eight significant bull markets, with durations ranging from a few dozen days to nearly three years, and percentage increases varying from 100% to over 1,000% [2]. First Bull Market (1990.12.19 - 1992.05.26) - Background: The initial phase of the Chinese stock market attracted a large number of investors due to its scarcity and supportive policies [5]. - Increase: The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 95.79 to 1429.01, a gain of 1391.82% [6]. - Duration: 524 days [6]. Second Bull Market (1992.11.17 - 1993.02.16) - Background: Following the Southern Tour talks in 1992, new reforms spurred a bullish trend in the market [8]. - Increase: The index increased from 386.85 to 1558.95, a rise of 302.99% [9]. - Duration: 91 days [9]. Third Bull Market (1994.07.29 - 1994.09.13) - Background: After a prolonged downturn, regulatory policies restored market confidence, leading to a notable rally [11]. - Increase: The index climbed from 325.89 to 1052.94, a gain of 223.10% [12]. - Duration: 46 days [12]. Fourth Bull Market (1996.01.19 - 1997.05.12) - Background: Economic reforms and liquidity measures initiated by the government contributed to market growth [14]. - Increase: The index rose from 512.83 to 1510.18, an increase of 194.48% [15]. - Duration: 479 days [15]. Fifth Bull Market (1999.05.19 - 2001.06.14) - Background: To counter the Asian financial crisis, the government implemented policies to boost market confidence [17]. - Increase: The index increased from 1047.83 to 2245.44, a rise of 114.29% [18]. - Duration: 757 days [18]. Sixth Bull Market (2005.06.06 - 2007.10.16) - Background: The stock market entered a full circulation era due to shareholding reforms and currency appreciation [20]. - Increase: The index surged from 998.23 to 6124.04, a gain of 513.49% [21]. - Duration: 862 days [21]. Seventh Bull Market (2008.10.28 - 2009.08.04) - Background: The government introduced a stimulus plan in response to the global financial crisis, which bolstered the market [23]. - Increase: The index rose from 1664.93 to 3478.01, an increase of 108.90% [24]. - Duration: 280 days [24]. Eighth Bull Market (2014.03.12 - 2015.06.12) - Background: Monetary policy easing led to significant capital inflows into the stock market, resulting in a "leveraged bull" market [25]. - Increase: The index increased from 1974.38 to 5178.19, a rise of 162.27% [26]. - Duration: 426 days [26]. Current Bull Market - Background: The current bull market is characterized by rapid initiation due to changes in monetary policy, starting on September 24, with the index rising from 2700 to 3600 within a month [28]. - Comparison: Similarities with past bull markets include starting from low levels and rapid initial gains, while differences lie in the timing of policy changes and the role of ETF investments [29][30]. ETF Influence - The current market has seen a significant increase in ETF investments, with a rise of 1436.83 million shares (+6.16%) and a total increase in scale of 8583.60 million yuan (+31.27%) since September 24 [31]. - The regulatory support for ETFs is expected to play a crucial role in sustaining the current bull market [32].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market remains at historically high levels despite the pressure from tariffs, but analysts warn that investors may be underestimating the impact of trade barriers on corporate earnings [1] - The S&P 500 index is trading at an expected price-to-earnings ratio of about 22 times, close to its highest valuation level since the pandemic [1] - Bloomberg data shows that the average tariffs paid by U.S. importers have surged to over 13%, more than five times higher than last year, which could reduce corporate earnings growth by 5% or more [1] Group 2 - Even the most bullish investors are preparing for volatility, with Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist predicting a potential market adjustment of 5%-10% due to lower-than-expected corporate guidance [2] - Current tariff levels are estimated to shrink the U.S. economy by 1.6% over the next two to three years, with consumer prices expected to rise by 0.9% [2] - The market faces a real bear market risk, with potential declines of 20% or more if earnings expectations are not met [2] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs is already evident as companies begin to report their Q2 earnings, with General Mills predicting a 1%-2% increase in sales costs and Oxford Industries lowering its annual profit forecast due to an additional $40 million in tariff costs [3] - FedEx has warned that trade policies are continuing to pressure its business, particularly in the high-margin U.S.-China freight sector, with quarterly earnings expected to fall below expectations [3] - Recent data indicates that companies are starting to pass higher costs onto consumers, particularly in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and clothing [3] Group 4 - Despite concerns, there are optimistic voices on Wall Street, with Goldman Sachs strategists citing declining interest rates, low unemployment, and high corporate profitability as support for high valuations [4] - The recent "Big Beautiful Bill" signed by Trump has made several corporate tax cuts permanent, which could contribute 5%-7% to S&P 500 earnings growth according to Morgan Stanley's estimates [4] Group 5 - Investors initially expected more tightening measures from the Trump administration, but the stimulus effects of the recent bill have alleviated some concerns [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies remains, with significant risks of increased overall tariff levels before the August 1 deadline [5] - UBS's chief strategist emphasizes that ignoring tariffs and their inflationary effects could lead to a miscalculation, as these factors may impact disposable income and market reactions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is poised for a new bull market, but short-term risks should be monitored [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index may decline by 5% to 10% within the current quarter due to pressure on corporate earnings from President Trump's trade policies, but this pullback is expected to be "temporary and mild," providing a buying opportunity for investors [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 20% since its low in April, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - Recent broad tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration are beginning to impact corporate balance sheets, with the third-quarter earnings season expected to reflect these effects for the first time [3] - The number of industries with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased, indicating that companies are gradually absorbing the impact of tariffs [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by a few technology giants, while cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials have not fully participated [3] - If trade risks lead to a broader earnings revision, funds may shift from growth stocks to value stocks, resulting in a more balanced rise in the index components [3] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - The market oscillates between fear and greed, and the key is to distinguish between temporary pullbacks and structural bear markets, with corporate earnings trajectories serving as the ultimate judge [3]