Core Insights - The public fund industry is undergoing a mid-to-long-term performance review as of mid-2025, with notable achievements from Huaxia Fund across various categories [1] - Huaxia Fund has demonstrated strong investment capabilities, particularly in equity markets and cyclical manufacturing sectors, achieving significant returns for investors [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Huaxia Fund's product "Huaxia Beijing Stock Exchange Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Selected Two-Year Open" delivered a remarkable 175.64% return over the past three years, winning titles in both "Mixed Equity Fund" and "Cyclical Manufacturing Fund" categories [1] - Huaxia Pantai A and Huaxia New Brocade A secured the first and second positions in the "Mixed Bond Fund" and "Flexible Allocation Fund" categories, showcasing the fund's long-term stable returns and excellent risk control [1] Group 2: QDII and FOF Performance - In the QDII sector, Huaxia Fund's "Huaxia Nasdaq 100 ETF" and "Huaxia Global Technology Pioneer A" ranked second and twelfth among QDII equity funds, while "Huaxia Greater China Credit Selected A," "Huaxia Overseas Income A," and "Huaxia Overseas Aggregation A" claimed the top three spots in QDII bond funds [1] - Huaxia Conservative Pension A achieved eighth place in the FOF fund performance rankings, providing investors with an important tool for asset allocation [2] Group 3: Passive Investment and Research Team - Huaxia Fund's passive investment products also performed well, with "Huaxia CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme ETF" ranking eleventh in growth funds, and "Huaxia CSI Financial Technology Theme ETF" and "Huaxia CSI Animation Game ETF" placing fifth and twelfth in technology funds respectively [2] - The "Huaxia Hang Seng China Enterprises High Dividend ETF" consistently ranked in the top 20 of the "Dividend Fund" category over the past three years, offering investors a high-dividend asset allocation option [2] - The company is committed to enhancing its research and investment team, with Zhang Chengyuan and Mao Ying securing the top two positions in the "Mixed Bond Fund Manager" rankings, reflecting the strength of the company's research system and talent pool [2]

Global Asset Price Review - The US Treasury Secretary proposed the removal of Clause 899 from the tax bill, which is a controversial "capital tax" clause, leading to a waiver for US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries [1][8] - Global geopolitical tensions have eased, resulting in a notable increase in equity markets while commodities generally declined [1][8] - As of June 27, 2025, the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 9 basis points to 4.29%, and the US dollar index remains below 100 at 97.3 [1][8] Global Fund Flows - Developed European equity funds experienced significant outflows, while Japan and emerging markets saw notable inflows [1][8] - In the past week, foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market while domestic capital saw outflows, with domestic outflows amounting to $380 million and foreign inflows of $997 million [1][8] - Active overseas funds withdrew from the Chinese stock market, while passive funds saw inflows, with active outflows of $538 million and passive inflows of $1.535 billion [1][8] Global Asset Valuation - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets, with the ERP percentile for the CSI 300 dropping 4 percentage points to 73% [1][8] - The ERP percentiles for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq are at 4%, 2%, and 6% respectively, indicating a lower risk premium compared to A-shares [1][8] Global Asset Risk Indicators - The sentiment in the US stock market continues to improve, with the put/call ratio on June 27 dropping to 0.90 from 1.23 on June 23, indicating a more optimistic outlook [1][8] - In the A-share market, only 30% of CSI 300 constituent stocks are above their 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, suggesting a weaker overall performance [1][8] Global Economic Data - The US Q1 GDP showed a contraction of -0.5%, indicating increasing economic pressure [1][8] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated expectations for monetary easing, with a 91.4% probability of a rate cut by September 2025 [1][8]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 地缘冲突升级 风险偏好降低 ——股指周报2025.06.23 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作上，随着5 | | | | 1、券商中国，随着美联储维持利率不变，全球市场进入新一轮观望期。多家外资机构 | 月经济数据的披 | | | | 表示，通胀走势、贸易政策与地缘政治的不确定性，正深刻影响市场预期。在全球经济 | 露，市场对于基 | | | | 面临多重扰动的背景下，美联储选择"按兵不动"，但这并未完全减弱市场波动，投资机 | 本面或存在一定 | | | | 构对未来资产价格的再评估与区域配置的调整意愿依然强烈。券商中国记者注意到，从 | 的分歧，叠加目 | | | | 资产类别到区域配置，外资的战略重心正在发生微妙变化。相较于对美国市场的谨慎态 | 前海外地缘局势 | | | | 度，欧洲、日本与新兴市场正逐步获得更高的权重。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to a new phase of market observation globally, influenced by inflation trends, trade policies, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - Multiple foreign institutions indicate that the uncertainty surrounding inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical issues is significantly impacting market expectations [2][3] - Despite the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, market volatility persists as investment institutions reassess asset prices and regional allocations [2][3] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded to near February highs due to easing trade tensions, but further policy-induced volatility is anticipated as tariff discussions continue [5] Group 2: Asset Allocation Shifts - There is a noticeable shift in foreign investment strategies towards Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, moving away from a cautious stance on the US market [2][7] - BlackRock's analysis suggests that with wage pressures easing and energy prices declining, the European Central Bank has more room to cut rates, making European investment-grade and high-yield credit more attractive compared to similar US assets [8] - Schroders has adjusted its focus from US equities to a more diversified regional allocation, favoring European markets, Japan, and emerging markets, while also preparing for a weaker dollar [10] Group 3: Sector and Asset Preferences - Schroders has upgraded its stock rating to positive, particularly focusing on financial stocks in the US and Europe, which may benefit from a steepening yield curve [9] - Allianz Investment highlights the strong performance of the Eurozone stock market due to improved market sentiment and political stability, while also favoring Eurozone sovereign bonds due to moderate inflation data [10]

2025陆家嘴论坛6月18日开幕。在"全体大会四：深化上海与香港国际金融中心合作发展"上，上海浦东 发展银行董事长张为忠表示，沪港两地基础设施连接"三通"扩容和允许两地投资者市场流动性增强是非 常重要的。通过深化机制的连通，沪港两地可以建立全球资产配置的高速路。香港在离岸人民币业务及 财富管理、资产配置方面具备显著优势，这些优势可借助机制连通助力全球资产配置，为中国企业出海 提供产业布局与资产配置新路径。（证券时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group is a leading life insurance company in the Asia-Pacific region, achieving significant growth in new business value and profitability, with a strong market presence and a robust agent network [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - AIA Group, headquartered in Hong Kong, has a century-long history and became an independent entity in 2009 after AIG's restructuring [1]. - The company is the largest independent listed life insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region, covering 18 markets [1]. - As of 2024, AIA reported an annualized new premium income of $8.606 billion, a net profit of $6.883 billion, and a new business value of $4.712 billion, ranking second among listed insurance companies [1]. Group 2: Business Performance - AIA maintains a high growth rate in new business value, with contributions from mainland China and Hong Kong consistently exceeding 50% [1]. - The new business value distribution as of 2024 is as follows: Mainland China 24.0%, Hong Kong 34.8%, Thailand 16.1%, Singapore 9.0%, Malaysia 6.9%, and other markets 9.2% [1]. Group 3: Agent Strategy and Quality - AIA adheres to a "best agents" strategy, establishing a benchmark for the industry in agent recruitment and retention [2]. - As of July 2024, AIA has 4,656 MDRT agents, leading globally and significantly surpassing domestic competitors [2]. - The company employs a comprehensive talent selection system focusing on educational background, professional experience, and certifications to ensure high-quality agents [2]. Group 4: Financial Outlook and Valuation - AIA's current valuation is at the 39th percentile since 2017, indicating a historical low, with potential for significant upside compared to past high-growth periods [3]. - Projected embedded value per share (EVPS) for 2025 to 2027 is $6.83, $7.46, and $8.22, respectively, with current P/EV ratios of 1.30, 1.19, and 1.08 [3]. - The target price is set between HKD 87.13 and HKD 94.10 per share, suggesting over 25% upside potential from current levels [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the "Xueqiu Three-Point Method," which enhances traditional asset allocation by incorporating global asset allocation and dynamic rebalancing strategies [2][42]. Group 1: Asset Allocation - The "Three-Point" method consists of asset diversification across stocks, bonds, and commodities [3][42]. - It emphasizes market diversification by investing in different regions such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks [3][42]. - The method also includes timing diversification through regular investment (dollar-cost averaging) [3][42]. Group 2: User Experience - The tool is designed to be user-friendly, allowing investors with limited knowledge to create a portfolio that outperforms benchmarks [4][5]. - Users can manually adjust asset allocation based on their preferences after an initial questionnaire [9][11]. - The platform offers a curated selection of high-quality funds, simplifying the selection process for users [12][25]. Group 3: Fund Selection Process - Users can choose from a pool of recommended funds or opt for a pre-assembled portfolio [12][13]. - The platform provides detailed information and tags for each fund, making it easier for users to understand their investment options [24][25]. - The tool allows for the selection of various fund types, including index funds and overseas investments [16][18]. Group 4: Rebalancing and Performance Tracking - The "Three-Point Dashboard" provides weekly updates on asset valuations and market sentiment, aiding in rebalancing decisions [30][39]. - The dashboard tracks multiple key indicators to inform users about market conditions and potential adjustments [41][42]. - The article highlights a successful reallocation based on the dashboard's recommendations, demonstrating its effectiveness [32][37].

Weekly Insights - The report highlights an increase in market disturbances due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, leading to heightened concerns over oil prices and inflation risks. However, the direct impact on China is considered limited, with the main concern being the risk of significant oil price increases. Historically, Middle Eastern conflicts have acted as catalysts for oil price fluctuations, but their effects tend to be short-lived due to the global economy's inability to sustain high oil prices for extended periods. Overall, the emotional impact of these conflicts on the market is greater than the actual economic implications [4][7]. - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, outlining four key policy directions: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks. This is expected to lead to timely responses from local governments and facilitate a quicker adjustment in the real estate cycle, contributing to marginal improvements in economic performance [4][7]. Market Trends - Despite recent adjustments, the overall market trend remains a broad range-bound movement. The core factors driving the market are stable and improving fundamental expectations, with hopes for gradual policy and external improvements. The report anticipates a structural bull market to emerge in the third quarter, with 3,400 points identified as a significant resistance level. The transition from quantitative to qualitative changes in A-shares is underway, indicating a revaluation of Chinese assets from a global investment perspective [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high economic activity, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory. While there may be short-term adjustments in crowded small-cap stocks, the likelihood of a major cyclical downturn is low. The report remains optimistic about the performance of large-cap companies following the trends of small-cap stocks. Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, with an emphasis on undervalued, high-dividend stocks as long-term investment opportunities in a declining interest rate environment [6][9]. Market Data - The report notes a general upward trend in the market, with small-cap stocks performing particularly well. The weekly performance of major indices shows positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading at 2.32%, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 1.42% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 1.13% [10][12]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has outperformed other industries this week, indicating strong investor interest in this area [13]. - Market turnover rates have increased, suggesting a rise in trading activity, while margin financing balances have shown a decline, reflecting reduced market participation [15][17]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation levels in the market remain reasonable, with the exception of the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which has seen a notable increase. The report provides a detailed breakdown of sector valuations, highlighting significant variations across different industries [19][21]. - For instance, the electronics sector has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 58.6, while the real estate sector shows a negative P/E of -6.4, indicating substantial differences in market sentiment and performance expectations across sectors [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding international tax regulations, particularly the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), for investors considering or already engaging in overseas asset allocation as global markets become more accessible and diversified [2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Personal Overseas Asset Income Declaration and Tax Compliance under CRS Information Exchange" aims to provide insights into the CRS information exchange mechanism [3]. - The event is scheduled for June 16, 20:00, and will be available for viewing via a QR code or mini-program [4]. Group 2: Expert Introduction - Mr. Luo Dawei, a tax partner at RSM China with over 20 years of experience in tax services, will be the guest speaker [8]. - His expertise includes tax services related to mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, supply chain tax optimization, cross-border investment structuring, and private equity fund consulting [9]. Group 3: Company Background - RSM is a leading global audit, tax, and consulting network focused on mainstream markets, with a global revenue exceeding $8 billion in 2022, reflecting a 15% growth [10]. - RSM ranked 6th in the International Accounting Bulletin's world accounting network rankings in 2022, recognized for its professional service quality and market reputation [10].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that stable capital market policies provide A-shares with a "buffer" against macro disturbances, suggesting a shift in focus from macro analysis to strong sector rhythm judgment for short-term market assessment [3][9]. - It indicates that the improvement in the supply-demand structure of A-shares may be delayed, while the verification process of China's global competitiveness is also a process of optimistic expectation fermentation [3][9]. - The article highlights that Hong Kong stocks are a potential leading market in a bull market scenario, with significant liquidity improvements being a historical change [3][20]. Group 2 - The article discusses the expected global economic conditions over the next 3-6 months, indicating that the global fundamentals will still be affected by tariffs and high interest rates, with a preference for Chinese stocks and technology growth stocks [15][20]. - It mentions that the market may enter a phase where the central tendency is elevated, suggesting that the market is in the final stage before a significant upward movement [5][8]. - The article provides insights into the potential return rates for the Hang Seng Index in 2025, with various scenarios based on earnings growth and U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a high implied equity risk premium [20][21].