Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the zinc market have shifted from previously negative to positive. The current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The zinc market is expected to perform well [5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $166.73 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 60 yuan/ton to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 70 yuan/ton to 23,100 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 60 yuan/ton to 23,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On December 9, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,250 yuan/ton and closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 129,703 lots, and the position was 101,254 lots. The highest price was 23,255 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,005 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 58,150 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis The TC of the zinc ore end continues to decline. With the absolute price falling from a high level, the losses of smelters have expanded. The raw material inventory of smelters is still decreasing, and their procurement enthusiasm remains high, which may lead to a continuous decline in TC. The smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, and the smelting output has decreased month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory has continued to decline, the spot premium has shown a stable and positive performance, and the discount of the near - month contract has narrowed to par. The LME inventory remains at a low level, the spot premium is relatively high, and the export window remains open [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. - **Arbitrage**: Calendar spread positive arbitrage [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 盘面价格下跌氧化铝仓单成交平平 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21880元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21740元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-230元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21770元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-200元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-09日沪铝主力合约开于22210元/吨，收于--元/吨，较上一交易日变化-370元/吨，最高价 达22210元/吨，最低价达到21735元/吨。全天交易日成交255735手，全天交易日持仓195726手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67863 吨，较上一交易日变化127吨，LME铝库存523300吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-09SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2740元/吨，河南价格录得 2820元/ ...

Core Insights - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on key sectors such as technology, value stocks, and leading companies, with an emphasis on the evolution of AI and its impact on market dynamics [3][4][8] Group 1: Investment Strategy and Focus - The investment outlook for 2026 is characterized by a focus on technology, value continuation, and a return to leading companies, with AI being a central theme [3] - The market is expected to shift towards economic fundamentals and corporate earnings as the main drivers of stock prices, with PPI trends being crucial [3][4] - Traditional cyclical industries, such as oil, coal, and basic metals, are anticipated to perform well, alongside sectors like insurance, internet, and renewable energy [4] Group 2: Research and Development Framework - The company emphasizes an "industrialized" research and investment framework, focusing on professionalization, industrialization, and digital intelligence to enhance investment insights [2] - The goal is to improve the "good product rate" of investments, ensuring sustainable performance for clients [2] Group 3: AI and Technology Investment - AI applications are expected to drive significant investment opportunities, particularly in consumer entertainment, business optimization, and advanced robotics [8][9] - The demand for computing power in AI training and inference is projected to rise significantly, with potential supply constraints impacting the market [9] Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The potential for "re-inflation" risks in 2026 is highlighted, driven by supply constraints, particularly in global electricity supply due to increased demand from AI data centers and re-industrialization [10][11] - Countries like India, Indonesia, and parts of Europe may face structural electricity supply shortages, which could elevate electricity prices and create investment opportunities in cyclical sectors [11] Group 5: Fixed Income and Diversified Investments - The low interest rate environment presents challenges for achieving stable returns, leading to a focus on diversified asset allocation strategies [12] - The company aims to identify high-quality assets in technology and cyclical sectors, leveraging the global expansion of Chinese companies [12][13]

Core Insights - The concept of "reflation" is central to understanding future investment opportunities, focusing on economic vitality and market confidence restoration [1][3] - Achieving reflation requires a collaborative effort between monetary and fiscal policies to revitalize economic activity and ensure long-term market health [3][19] Reflation Mechanisms - Monetary policy plays a crucial role in creating a favorable liquidity environment, which supports investment and consumption, thereby driving nominal output recovery [5][22] - Fiscal policy is essential for repairing balance sheets and "debt resolution," with rising asset prices being key to this process. Innovative approaches like "equity finance" can guide funds to support quality listed companies, enhancing their value [6][23] Investment Priorities in A-shares - Priority One: Focus on "hard assets" that can benefit from price revaluation, as asset price recovery is a core feature in a reflation environment [8][19] - Priority Two: Utilize "quantitative thinking" for calm value discovery, employing multi-factor stock selection models to systematically assess companies and avoid emotional trading [9][24] - Priority Three: Build a "multi-strategy" portfolio to adapt to market evolution, as a single strategy may not suffice across all market phases [11][25][26] Long-term Investment Perspective - Investment should be viewed as a warm companion through economic cycles, requiring insight and patience to navigate the complexities of market fluctuations [13][27]

来源：金十 在一个股市表现亮眼的年度，中国已重新赢回全球资金的青睐。投资者预期，凭借其在人工智能领域的 实力以及在贸易环境中的韧性，中国市场将带来进一步回报。 看好中国股市的理由，主要在于对芯片、生物制药和机器人等领域新兴科技巨头的乐观情绪。围绕人工 智能的热潮已推动寒武纪和阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司等股票大幅上涨。但今年表现落后于大盘的板 块，尤其是消费板块，也可能迎来反弹。 全球基金管理公司东方汇理、法国巴黎银行资产管理、富达国际和英仕曼集团均预计中国股市将在2026 年继续上涨。摩根大通近期将中国市场的评级上调至超配，而Allspring Global Investments的Gary Tan表 示，此类资产对外国投资者正变得"不可或缺"。 投资者对中国的看法已从怀疑转向承认：这个市场能通过其技术进步带来独特价值。MSCI中国指数今 年已上涨约30%，跑赢标普500指数的幅度为2017年以来最大，市值增加了2.4万亿美元。由于大部分资 金流入由被动型基金驱动，市场期待主动型基金管理人的回归能引领反弹进入下一阶段。 "中国已经迎来拐点，展现出更强的韧性。投资者现在越来越接受一个'可投资'的中国，它提供了多样 ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext 50 index is expected to have high elasticity under the profit growth forecast for 2026, driven by strong growth factors [1] - The index primarily covers sectors such as semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, AI, humanoid robots, and high-end equipment, which are expected to benefit from valuation expansion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The ChiNext 50 exhibits high gross margins (28.9% gross margin in H1 2025) and high free cash flow, aligning with the "quality large-cap growth" style [1] Group 2 - Short-term focus should be on North American AI capital expenditures supporting the technology industry chain, while mid-term observations should consider the long-term impact of AI productivity improvements on industry structure [1] - In the context of re-inflation, the technology manufacturing sector represented by the ChiNext 50 is expected to become a fundamental part of the market [1] - The Guotai ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 index (399673), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20%, selecting 50 securities with good liquidity and large market capitalization from the ChiNext market [1]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美国银行亚太股票策略主管Winnie Wu表示，她在与全球投资者的频繁交流中发现，部分基 金经理认为，在美股表现同样强势的背景下，配置中国资产的"门槛"依然不低。不过，她也 指出，中国企业盈利改善以及通缩压力出现拐点，有望扭转这种局面。"下一阶段的中国股市 上涨，将更多由全球资金来驱动。" 大家好，简单关注一则外资机构集体看好中国股市的消息。 投资者押注，中国股市凭借在人工智能领域的实力以及在中美关系中的韧性，还有进一步上 涨空间。 包括法国东方汇理、法国巴黎资产管理、富达国际和曼集团在内的全球基金管理公司都预 计， 2026年中国股市仍将走高。 摩根大通近期将中国股市评级上调至"增持"，Allspring Global Investments的投资组合经理Gary Tan则表示， 这一资产类别正变得对海外投资者而 言"不可或缺"。 市场机构对于中国的看法，已经从此前的怀疑，转向认可其可以通过技术进步提供独特投资 价值。 MSCI中国指数今年已上涨约30%，跑赢标普500指数的幅度创下2017年以来之最， 市值增加了约 ...

Core Insights - The consensus among chief economists is that the core driving force of China's economy in 2026 will shift towards domestic demand, particularly in the service sector, leading to a more balanced economic development compared to 2025 [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to undergo a value reassessment, with the potential for improved corporate earnings coinciding with a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could drive a solid upward trend in A-shares [2][3] Economic Outlook - The PPI in October 2023 showed its first month-on-month increase of the year, signaling a positive trend. If the PPI continues to narrow its decline or even turn positive year-on-year in 2024, it could lead to a mild re-inflation in the economy, benefiting corporate profits [1][2] - Chief economists agree that the A-share market's value reassessment logic will remain intact, as the capital market's role in wealth allocation and technological innovation is becoming increasingly significant [2] Market Dynamics - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market were discussed, with economists acknowledging its existence but suggesting that the timing and impact of a potential burst are manageable. The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are highlighted as a critical period to watch [2] - Despite potential adjustments in U.S. tech stocks, the impact on China's tech narrative is expected to be limited due to China's vast AI application scenarios, which allow for the practical implementation of technological innovations [2] Unknown Factors - Economists pointed out several uncertainties for 2026, including changes in international relations and geopolitical dynamics, fluctuations in overseas capital markets, and the potential for unexpected political events in the U.S. However, there is a general agreement on a positive trend for the economy and market in 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that by 2025, the term "China asset revaluation" will become familiar as the technology industry transitions from catching up to leading, with A-share companies shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth [1] - Economists agree that the core driver of China's economy in 2026 will shift towards domestic demand, particularly in the service sector, leading to a more balanced economic development [3] - There is a consensus that the logic of A-share value revaluation will remain intact, supported by improvements in corporate profits alongside a potential recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the US indicate that while a bubble exists, its timing and impact are manageable, with key attention needed around the US midterm elections [4] - The impact of adjustments in US tech giants on A-share technology narratives is expected to be limited due to China's vast AI application scenarios that integrate technology into industry [4] - Economists highlight the importance of monitoring uncertainties in 2026, including changes in international relations, fluctuations in overseas capital markets, and the acceleration of China's modern industrial system [4]

富达国际新加坡的投资组合经理George Efstathopoulos表示："可以说，中国展现出更强韧性，投资者正 越来越多地接受一个'可投资的中国'，这里既能提供多元配置，也能提供创新机会。现在如果中国股市 回调，我会更倾向于逢低买入。" 根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至今年11月，境外长线资金通过沪深港股通等渠道，净买入了约100亿美元 的中国内地及香港股票，这与2024年约170亿美元的资金流出形成鲜明反差。本轮净流入完全来自跟踪 指数的被动资金，而主动型基金经理则合计撤出约150亿美元。 原因之一在于，很多依赖"选股"的主动投资者，仍未能摆脱过去几年对中国经济的固有印象。 美国银行亚太股票策略主管Winnie Wu表示，她在与全球投资者的频繁交流中发现，部分基金经理认 为，在美股表现同样强势的背景下，配置中国资产的"门槛"依然不低。不过，她也指出，中国企业盈利 改善以及通缩压力出现拐点，有望扭转这种局面。"下一阶段的中国股市上涨，将更多由全球资金来驱 动。" 看多中国股市的逻辑，主要建立在两个支撑点上：一是芯片、生物医药、机器人等领域正在崛起的新一 代科技巨头；二是市场寄望于这个全球第二大经济体能够进入再通 ...