记者丨李益文,毕凤至 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 5020 284 F-5 4981.309 品量 | | | | | 0 | | +38.975 +0.78% 开盘 | 4988.170 现手 | | | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5020.440 持 仓 0 | | | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4988.170 0 | 壇 仓 | | 内 盘 | | O | | 关时 | 五日 日K | | 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 更多 ◎ | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 5020.440 | | | | | 0.79% 卖一 5020.824 | | | | | | | | 头一 5020.284 | | | | | | | | 7:01 5020.060 7:01 5019.780 | 0 0 | | 4981.309 | | | | 0.00% | 7:01 5020.120 | ...

记者丨李益文,毕凤至 编辑丨叶映橙 设计丨李基礼 2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口。 对于本轮黄金价格的大幅上涨，独立财经评论员赵欢向21快讯记者分析， 各国央行的战略性资产配置需求是本轮黄金上涨的核心支撑 。此 外，美联储处在降息周期，意味着持有美元资产的吸引力下降，而黄金作为"无利息资产"的机会成本变低。 事实上，当前全球央行正在掀起新一轮购金热潮。中国人民银行官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年12月末， 我国黄金储备为7415万盎司， 当月增持3万盎司。 值得注意的是，这已是央行自2024年11月以来，连续第14个月增持黄金。这一趋势也为市场注入了长期信心。 当前市场对美联储的降息预期依旧强劲。高盛曾预计，受美国就业市场持续恶化、失业率上升、薪资增速放缓及企业对经济前景悲观等因素影 响，美联储2026年降息幅度可能超过市场普遍预期，经济所需宽松力度高于当前定价。 华西证券最新研报预测，2026年金价涨幅或介于10%—35%区间，而杰富瑞集团更是喊出6600美元/盎司的惊人目标。 高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The global gold price has reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][2] - Central banks have net purchased over 50 tons of gold in the first two weeks of January 2026, with China's central bank increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, providing strong support for gold prices [1] - Major financial institutions predict bullish targets for gold, with estimates ranging from $4200 to $5300 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating a likely upward trend in the near term [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged above $90 per ounce, driven by increased industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, with a projected 30% growth in global solar installations in 2026 [3] - The current gold-silver ratio is around 59, suggesting potential for silver price recovery compared to historical averages, with predictions of silver prices reaching between $95 and $100 per ounce in the near term [3] - Financial institutions forecast silver prices could rise significantly, with targets of $50 per ounce in the short term and up to $309 per ounce in the long term [3]

金价"坐火箭"：单周暴涨8%，2008年后最猛行情来袭！ 1月25日，黄金市场彻底沸腾！本周国际金价累 计涨幅超8%，创下2008年金融危机以来最佳单周表现。纽约期货黄金价格冲上5020.83美元/盎司，伦敦 现货黄金紧随其后，报4986.02美元/盎司，中国上海黄金交易所价格也站稳1115.50元/克高位。这场"黄 金盛宴"背后，是美元指数的全面溃败——美市盘中，美元指数DXY失守98关口，过去两周累计跌幅超 3%，为金价狂飙提供直接推力。 美元崩跌+地缘动荡：黄金为何成为"避险王者"？ 金价此轮暴涨，本 质是市场对政治经济不确定性的"投票"。 美元走弱：美联储加息周期接近尾声，降息预期升温，美元 资产吸引力下降，资金加速流向黄金； 地缘冲突：全球局部战争风险持续，黄金作为"无国籍货币"的 避险属性被彻底激活； 央行购金潮：2025年全球央行净购金超1000吨，2026年增持势头不减，直接托 底金价。 正如市场分析师所言："当美元和国债不再安全，黄金就是最后的'保险单'。" 短线操作指 南：回落低多为主，但警惕两大"黑天鹅"！ 当前黄金多头气势如虹，技术面呈现典型"牛市特征"： 均 线多头排列：5日、10日 ...

证券研究报告 2026年01月24日 资产配置专题报告： 黄金定价重构——估值锚、溢价分析与路径推演 林加力(证券分析师) 许潇琦(证券分析师) 刘子路(联系人) S0350524100005 S0350525080004 S0350125080017 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn liuzl02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -9% -2% 6% 13% 20% 27% 2025/01/242025/03/242025/05/242025/07/24 2025/09/24 2025/11/24 沪深300 《公募REITs月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，二级市场收益承压*林加力，许 潇琦》——2026-01-06 《2026年大类资产配置展望：动能切换，增长扩散*林加力，袁雨琦，许潇 琦》——2025-12-18 《2025年中央经济工作会议解读：实施城乡居民增收计划，推动投资止跌回 稳*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-12-12 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have experienced a pullback after reaching a high in mid-January, leading to a cooling effect in the domestic market, with noticeable pricing discrepancies across different channels [1][2]. Group 1: International and Domestic Pricing - International gold prices peaked at $4,636 per ounce on January 14, then retreated to around $4,595, with a brief spike to $4,690 around January 19 [2]. - In the Shanghai market, as of January 22, 2026, spot gold prices fell to 1,084 RMB per gram, with futures around 1,090 RMB per gram and base gold prices at approximately 1,093 RMB per gram [2]. - Retail gold prices in major stores ranged from 1,247 to 1,506 RMB per gram, with mainstream brands priced around 1,493 to 1,498 RMB per gram [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Movements - The recent price pullback is attributed to multiple factors, including profit-taking at historical highs and programmed trading mechanisms that trigger sell orders at key price levels [4]. - Macro factors exerting pressure on gold prices include the Federal Reserve's signals of not rushing to cut interest rates, which strengthens the dollar and suppresses gold prices, while geopolitical risks provide support for safe-haven demand [4]. Group 3: Domestic Market Pricing Discrepancies - Domestic gold price reductions do not equate to uniform consumer costs due to three main reasons: differences in processing fees, brand premiums, and regional price variations [6]. - Processing fees for complex designs can add 300 to 500 RMB per gram, significantly impacting total costs even when gold prices decline [6]. - Regional price differences can be as high as 300 RMB per gram, influenced by logistics, policies, and competition [6]. Group 4: Technical Signals and Central Bank Purchases - Key technical levels to monitor include support around $4,575 per ounce and the psychological barrier at $4,600, with potential for amplified volatility due to leveraged funds adjusting positions [8]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves, with a reported total of 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, indicating a continued strategy to enhance financial security amid uncertainty [8]. Group 5: Strategies for Investors - Investors are advised to separate investment decisions from consumption, focusing on gold bars or ETFs to minimize costs associated with processing fees and brand premiums [10]. - For those looking to purchase for personal use, it is recommended to buy during price corrections and to compare prices across different stores and channels [10]. - When planning to liquidate gold, it is crucial to understand weighing methods, discount rules, and quality assessment processes to avoid unexpected costs [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Cautiously Bearish (Possibility) | Cautiously Bullish (Possibility) | | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IN) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | √ | | | Hot Rolled Coil | -1 | | | Iron Ore | √ | | | Gold | | √ | | Silver | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Container Shipping to Europe | -1 | | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors are advised to buy on dips during short - term adjustments [3][20]. - Short - term rubber prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - The crude oil market is under pressure due to factors such as the possible resumption of diplomatic communication between the US and Iran and the improvement of the situation in Venezuela [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News Concerns on the Day International News - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate of the US in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [6]. Domestic News - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23. After deducting the 200 billion yuan of matured MLF in January, the net injection through MLF operations is 700 billion yuan [7]. Industry News - The sales revenue of China's intelligent equipment manufacturing industry in 2025 increased by 28.1% year - on - year, with industrial robots and special operation robots manufacturing growing by 17.4% and 42.1% respectively [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 index rose 0.55%, the European STOXX 50 index rose 0.87%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.35%, the US dollar index fell 0.50%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.41%, London gold rose 2.18%, London silver rose 3.33%, LME aluminum rose 0.72%, LME copper rose 0.23%, LME zinc rose 1.83%, LME nickel rose 0.58%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 1.29%, ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.61%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.09%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.61%, CBOT lean hogs fell 0.57%, CBOT wheat rose 1.48%, and CBOT corn rose 0.53% [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by multiple factors. The market is shifting from valuation expansion to profit - driven [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized. The central bank's monetary policy and fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to be moderately loose, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 2.17% at night. Diplomatic communication may resume between the US and Iran, and the situation in Venezuela has improved [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.46% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and coastal methanol inventories increased slightly [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber continued to rebound on Thursday, driven by the strong performance of synthetic rubber. Short - term prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Glass supply and demand are gradually improving, while soda ash still faces inventory digestion pressure [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals rebounded, with international gold and silver hitting new highs. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and short - term dips are buying opportunities [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.43% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and copper prices may experience a phased correction [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.53% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and zinc prices may correct after the release of the optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous market [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.21% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply restrictions provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. The price is likely to rise rather than fall under the current demand logic [24][25]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The short - term decline of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to supply, iron production, and restocking [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with weak supply and demand and narrowing inventory decline [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [28]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal oscillated strongly at night. The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans is accelerating, and domestic prices are under pressure from high inventory and expected high yield in South America [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils oscillated and adjusted at night. The prices of palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong in the short term [30]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar's main contract remained at a low level. The short - term price is expected to remain low due to seasonal supply pressure [31][32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract oscillated strongly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [33]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: EC rose 0.58%. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival, but the market is not very pessimistic about the April freight rate [34].

黄金又双叒叕创历史新高了！ 国内品牌金饰价格更是单日大幅跳涨，1月23日老庙黄金足金报价1548元/克，单日上涨52元/克；周生 生报价1545元/克，单日上涨53元/克；老凤祥报价1538元/克，单日上涨43元/克，均站上历史高位。 1月，伦敦现货黄金从每盎司4300美元附近一路上扬，23日盘中一度超过每盎司4960美元，月内涨幅近 15%。 受此影响，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格、上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约23日盘中均突破每 克1110元，多家品牌金店的足金饰品报价突破每克1500元关口，一些品牌的足金饰品报价达每克1548 元，较前一日单克上涨超50元，再创历史新高。 国际银价也迎来突破，现货白银站上96美元/盎司。 在美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险等多重因素推动下，各大机构纷纷上调黄金目标价，金价向5000美元 关口发起冲击，贵金属市场迎来历史性行情。 内外金价齐创新高 1月23日早盘，现货黄金直线拉涨，盘中最高触及4967美元/盎司，纽约期金同步突破4960美元/盎司。 回溯行情，当地时间22日尾盘现货黄金已突破4900美元/盎司，日内涨超2%，本周涨幅超7%、涨超300 美元/盎司，1月以来 ...

数据显示，1月23日上海黄金现货价格报价1110.80元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1115.64元/克）贴水 4.84元/克。 美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美联储 青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上周初请 失业金人数20万人，低于预期的21万人。 美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗普还威胁 称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强烈报复"。对于美联 储主席人选，特朗普表示，很快就会公布，自己心中已有人选，已结束对美联储主席候选人的面试。 【机构观点】 恒泰期货：美联储降息预期+避险升温+央行购金 黄金短期震荡偏强 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月23日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1115.64 | 2.55% | 288050 | 206580 | 打开APP，查看更多 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, international gold prices have been continuously rising, leading to record high gold prices in RMB terms, driven by both long-term favorable factors and geopolitical events [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On January 23, several gold retailers reported that the price of pure gold jewelry exceeded 1500 RMB per gram, with some brands reaching 1548 RMB per gram, an increase of over 50 RMB from the previous day [1]. - In January, the London spot gold price rose from around 4300 USD per ounce to over 4960 USD per ounce on January 23, marking a nearly 15% increase within the month [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot gold price and the main contract of gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange both surpassed 1110 RMB per gram on January 23, setting new records [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent rise in domestic and international gold prices is supported by long-term favorable factors such as central bank gold purchases and strong investment demand [1]. - Geopolitical factors have also contributed to increased safe-haven investments, further driving up gold prices [1].