Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts Tongguan Gold's (00340) EPS for 2025-2026 to be HKD 0.16 and HKD 0.23, with a CAGR of 121% from 2024-2026, indicating strong growth potential [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company emphasizes the strategic importance of exploration and resource expansion, holding a total gold resource of 55.0 tons with an average grade of 8.26 g/t [2] - Tongguan Gold's production is expected to increase, with projected gold sales of 2.8 tons and 3.4 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The acquisition of Xi'an Hongshang, a mining engineering supplier, is anticipated to lower production costs through industry chain integration [2] Group 2: Strategic Investments - Zijin Mining's strategic investment includes acquiring 3.82% of the company through its wholly-owned subsidiary, reflecting confidence in the company's asset quality and strategic direction [3] - The partnership with Zijin is expected to enhance the company's cash flow and provide potential for future mergers and acquisitions [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - The decline in real interest rates and the trend of central bank gold purchases are expected to support rising gold prices [4] - The anticipated continuation of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China is likely to replicate previous successful operations [4] - Potential catalysts for growth include sustained increases in gold prices and successful transitions in mining operations at Tongguan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is showing signs reminiscent of 2015, with potential for significant price movements driven by similar economic conditions and investor behavior [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, along with a data vacuum caused by the U.S. government shutdown, is creating a favorable environment for gold, similar to the pre-2015 conditions [1][2]. - Economic data disruptions, such as fluctuating employment figures, have historically influenced gold prices, as seen in 2015 when lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data led to a 2.3% increase in gold prices [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in investments in gold ETFs, with SPDR Gold Shares seeing a record inflow of 18.9 tons in a single day, echoing the asset reallocation trends of 2015 [4]. - Central bank gold purchases have shifted from retail-driven to strategic allocations, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons since 2022, compared to less than 600 tons in 2015 [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current technical setup for gold shows a strong upward channel, with significant support around the $3835-$3840 range, indicating enhanced market resilience compared to 2015 [6]. - Silver's performance is positively correlated with gold, as evidenced by a 2.09% increase in silver prices, which could further bolster gold's upward momentum [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical; a disappointing report could trigger a surge in gold prices similar to the events of November 2015 [8]. - Key price levels are crucial for short-term movements; a breakout above $3865 could lead to targets of $3900-$3950, while a drop below $3720 may signal a need for caution [8][10].

Group 1 - The international gold price reached a record closing high, with December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closing at $3,908.90 per ounce, an increase of 1.05% [1] - The gold price has seen a cumulative increase of 2.62% over the week, with three consecutive days of record intraday highs [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have also reported new highs in gold prices per gram, with notable prices such as 1,136 yuan for Chow Sang Sang, 1,129 yuan for Chow Tai Fook, and 1,131 yuan for Lao Feng Xiang [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts from BMO Capital Markets have significantly raised their price forecasts for gold and silver, citing geopolitical and economic turmoil as key drivers for unprecedented gold price increases [4] - The forecast for the average gold price in the last quarter of 2025 has been adjusted to $3,900 per ounce, an 8% increase from previous estimates, and for 2026, it is projected to reach $4,400 per ounce, a 26% increase [4] - UBS has also released a bullish outlook for the gold market, predicting that gold prices will rise to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by a weaker dollar, central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [4]

Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward cycle of gold is not over, and any adjustment in gold prices should be seen as a buying opportunity on dips. The long - term trend of gold is anchored to its monetary attribute, and with the decline of the US dollar currency system, global central banks will increase their gold allocation and reduce their US dollar allocation. [2][120] - In the fourth quarter, central bank gold purchases will act as a support, and investment demand will be the driving force. Investment demand will shift from uncertain hedging transactions to interest - rate cut transactions on the monetary policy side. The target price of London gold in Q4 2025 will move up to the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce, and the domestic price will be in the range of 820 - 900 yuan/gram. [2][121] - Silver trends generally follow gold, but there are differences in fundamentals and volatility. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce, and the domestic price is 10000 - 12000 yuan/kilogram. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. [3][121] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, the domestic and foreign precious metals markets continued the bull market in 2024, with strong upward momentum and the relative strength of gold and silver switching. The foreign market outperformed the domestic market, mainly due to the appreciation of the RMB. [9] - In the third quarter, the precious metals market had both synchronization and differentiation. Gold started to break through upwards in late August, silver followed gold's upward movement in late August after a period of adjustment, and platinum's price moved up following gold and silver after a large - scale fluctuation in July. [9] - As of September 19, 2025, all precious metals showed significant price increases compared to the end of 2024, with COMEX silver having the highest increase of 48.05%, and the gold - to - silver ratio decreased by 3.75%. [19] 2. Cross - Market Price Difference Fluctuations Caused by Concerns over US Tariff Policies - From late last year to the first quarter of this year, concerns about the US imposing gold import tariffs led to large - scale arbitrage trading, pushing up the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold. Similar arbitrage transactions have occurred multiple times since November 2024. [23] - In the third quarter of this year, a similar story of cross - market price differences in precious metals repeated. In July, the premium of COMEX futures over London spot in the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium markets widened rapidly due to concerns that the US might extend copper import tariff measures to precious metals. [26] 3. Broad Monetary Expectations Boost Precious Metals Valuation and Investment Demand 3.1 Q3 Real Interest Rate Decline Boosts Gold Valuation - In August, the enhanced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut pushed down the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate, thereby boosting the valuation of gold. Although the non - farm payroll report in early August was far below expectations, the lack of a clear signal from the Fed and the time interval between FOMC meetings limited the increase in precious metals prices. [33] - During the period of increasing interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar index remained resilient, with a limited depreciation range. Except for the Swedish krona, the other five major currencies depreciated against the US dollar in Q3 2025, with the Japanese yen having the largest depreciation. [35] 3.2 The Fed's Monetary Easing Expectation is the Main Cause of the Decline in Real Interest Rates - The mid - to long - term decline in the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is mainly driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut and easing expectations. At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates 1.728 times by the end of this year and 4.317 times by the end of 2026. [41] - The dot - plot of the September FOMC meeting shows that most Fed officials expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year and once each in 2026 and 2027. Compared with June, the expected number of interest - rate cuts has increased due to the Fed's shift towards the employment side in balancing inflation and employment. [45] - The Fed's September economic forecast shows an upward revision of the GDP growth rate forecast for 2025 - 2027, a downward revision of the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 and 2027, and an upward revision of the PCE forecast, reflecting the Fed officials' increased concern about inflation and reduced concern about the economy. [49] 3.3 The Fed's Broad Monetary Policy Still Has Room for Strengthening - In the fourth quarter, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate are expected to decline further, which will continue to boost the valuation of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut and possible suspension of balance - sheet reduction are likely to be further strengthened due to increased economic downward pressure in the US and the expected increase in the number of Fed officials favorable to Trump. [51] - The US economy may face greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter and 2026, as evidenced by the cooling of the employment market and the negative impact of trade tariffs on the economy. The Fed's independence is being challenged through institutional and personnel interventions, and there is also the issue of fiscal coercion. [53][63] - Since 2025, global gold investment demand has increased significantly, but there was a net outflow in May. The uncertainty brought about by Trump's policies has increased the demand for gold investment and allocation, but the "90 - day suspension period" of the "reciprocal tariff" policy and the cooling of uncertainty have led to a partial withdrawal of investment demand. [73][75] 4. Central Bank Gold Purchases as a Support - Central bank gold purchases have shown a slowdown this year. From the perspective of the fourth quarter and 2026, central bank gold purchases will act as a support rather than the core driving force for price increases. Central banks are expected to continue to support the gold market, with a concave - shaped demand curve that is more sensitive to price declines. [81] - Long - term, the relationship between central bank gold purchases and gold prices is asymmetric. Central banks are more likely to increase purchases when prices fall, and the inhibitory effect on price increases is weaker than the boosting effect on price increases when prices fall. [82] - As of July, the Polish central bank was the largest gold purchaser in 2025, but its gold purchases slowed down in the second half of the year. Many central banks, including those of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, and Turkey, maintained a good demand for gold. [89] - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves and reduce their US dollar reserves in the next five years. In the next 12 months, 95% of central banks expect the global central bank's gold reserves to continue to increase. [90][91][98] 5. Precious Metals Market Outlook 5.1 Q4 2025 Outlook: Reaching New Highs and Maintaining Strength - In terms of influencing factors, the decline in the US dollar index and the US Treasury real interest rate has boosted the valuation of precious metals. The rise in the precious metals market in the first half of the year was mainly due to hedging demand and interest - rate cut expectations. Central bank gold purchases provided support, and market supply - demand imbalances in the first quarter also contributed to the rise. Gold entered a consolidation phase from late April to mid - August and broke through after late August. [119] - The demand for silver is weaker than that for gold. Industrial silver demand has stagnated, and the underdeveloped investment channels in the domestic market have limited investment demand. However, the deviation of the gold - to - silver ratio and the small market size of silver have created trading opportunities. [120] - The long - term upward cycle of gold is not over, and any price adjustment should be seen as a buying opportunity. In the fourth quarter, investment demand will shift, and the price of London gold is expected to reach the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce. [2][3][121]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views of the Report - Gold prices have reached a record high, with London gold spot breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and silver hovering near its 14 - year high. Despite strong risk - appetite in overseas markets, the risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an outstanding hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers include fiscal deadlock, concerns about government shutdown, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, central bank gold purchases, ETF increases, and geopolitical tensions. However, gold has risen for six consecutive weeks with a cumulative increase of over 40%, and there is a risk of short - term price correction due to profit - taking before the holiday and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations if US employment and PMI data are strong after the holiday [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices remains solid. Global debt expansion, the trend of de - globalization, continuous central bank gold purchases, Fed's future easing, and global economic uncertainties will support the strategic allocation value of gold [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key News - US President Trump announced a series of new import tariffs last Thursday, which has brought new uncertainties to the trade situation [2]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its third - quarter meeting, suggesting to strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine last Sunday, causing casualties [2]. - US lawmakers are about to hold talks with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, and the Republican leader blamed the Democrats for the current deadlock [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices have reached a new high. London gold spot broke through $3,800 per ounce on Monday morning, and silver is near its 14 - year high. The risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an important hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers come from multiple factors, but there are short - term risks such as profit - taking and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices is solid, supported by factors like global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and Fed's future policies [3]. Commodity Index - On September 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities shows: the commodity index is 2237.97 with a - 0.51% change, the commodity 20 index is 2512.18 with a - 0.48% change, and the industrial products index is 2249.67 with a - 0.87% change [44]. - The PPI commodity index is 1325.62 with a - 0.84% change [45]. - The precious metals index on September 26, 2025: the current price is 3018.13, with a daily increase of + 0.75%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.71%, a 1 - month increase of + 9.91%, and a year - to - date increase of + 36.42% [46].

Group 1 - Gold prices have been strong in recent months, reaching a high of $3,800 per ounce due to strong demand from ETFs and global central banks [1] - ETFs have made a strong comeback, ranking among the top three in gold reserves this year, with their impact on gold prices being 50% higher compared to the period from 2021 to 2024 [1] - Central banks have been increasing their gold holdings by approximately 400 to 500 tons annually since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Jewelry demand is elastic, meaning it decreases when prices rise, and an increase in jewelry demand could negatively impact gold prices as it may require lower prices as an incentive [2] - If the increase in ETF holdings is a significant factor in gold price appreciation, a halt or reversal of these inflows could pose a downside risk [2] - Typically, when U.S. Treasury yields decline, investors are more inclined to increase their gold holdings in ETFs [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing short-term fluctuations as the National Day holiday approaches, with a cautious sentiment among investors leading to profit-taking and adjustments in positions [1][2][16] - The technology sector has shown signs of a temporary pullback, while financial and consumer sectors demonstrate resilience, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [1][2][16] Short-term Strategy - For short-term investors, it is advisable to take profits on stocks that have seen significant gains recently to mitigate holding risks [2][16] - Long-term investors should remain patient with quality companies that have solid fundamentals and clear industry prospects, particularly in the technology sector [2][16] Sector Analysis Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and robotics, is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, especially during the current market correction [2][16] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by national policies and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [10] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector remains a focus for investors, with leading companies expected to benefit from both valuation recovery and performance growth [3][9][17] - The demand for lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind energy is projected to persist as global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality continue [9][17] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with new policies in major cities aimed at boosting market demand and improving the financial health of real estate companies [11] - Investors are encouraged to look for opportunities in quality companies with strong land reserves and stable growth prospects [11] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen price increases driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, making gold an attractive investment [12][13] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector has experienced volatility, with recent advancements in AI technology providing growth opportunities in content production and interactive entertainment [14] Banking Sector - The banking sector is stabilizing, with high dividend yield stocks continuing to attract investor interest, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [15]

Core Insights - The gold price has surged to record levels, driven by optimistic institutional forecasts and macroeconomic factors, indicating potential investment opportunities in the precious metals market [1][26][30]. Domestic Retail Market - Domestic gold retail prices show significant differentiation, with international gold spot prices at $3,761.9 per ounce, approximately ¥859.5 per gram. Major brands like Caibai and Lao Fengxiang set prices at ¥1,058 and ¥1,108 per gram respectively, reflecting competitive pricing strategies [2][3]. - The lowest price recorded was at Sun Gold Store, priced at ¥969 per gram [3]. International Market Dynamics - The international precious metals market experienced volatility on September 28, with gold prices declining to ¥3,311.86 per gram, a decrease of 1.27%. In contrast, platinum and palladium prices saw significant increases, with platinum rising by 3.03% to ¥1,176.76 per gram and palladium soaring by 5.36% to ¥1,065.20 per gram [4]. Bank Paper Precious Metals Pricing - Various banks exhibited differing price trends for paper precious metals. For instance, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a paper gold price of ¥863.71 per gram, up by 0.84%, while China Construction Bank's price fell by 0.51% to ¥862.66 per gram [6][7][8]. Coin Series Pricing - The 2025 Panda gold coin series pricing was detailed, with the complete set priced at ¥52,119. Individual coins ranged from ¥1,170 for a 1-gram coin to ¥480,000 for a 1-kilogram commemorative coin [14][15][22]. Price Outlook and Institutional Predictions - The gold price has seen an unprecedented rise, with a cumulative increase of over 8.5% since September, and a year-to-date increase of 38%, outperforming major global stock indices and bond yields [26]. - Key factors supporting the gold price surge include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns over economic stagflation, geopolitical risks, and increased central bank gold purchases [27][28][29]. - Institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs maintain optimistic forecasts, predicting gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce in the near future, with potential spikes to $5,000 per ounce under certain conditions [30].

黄金：如何定价，走向何方？20250912 摘要 2024 年，MEX 黄金和伦敦现货黄金年内累计涨幅分别达到 29.7%和 31.5%，9 月初接近 40%，主要受美联储降息预期、特朗普动摇美联储 独立性以及欧美债务可持续性担忧推动。 黄金价格受商品、货币、金融三重属性影响，与通胀正相关，与美元和 美债实际利率负相关。但自 2022 年以来，实际利率对金价的解释力减 弱，可能因实际利率误判或央行购金行为所致。 2022 年至 2024 年间，全球央行平均每年购金量达 1,060 吨，占全球 需求 23%，结构性需求推升金价，使得传统的实际利率-黄金定价框架 失效，应回归供需基础逻辑分析。 历史数据显示，金价显著涨势通常源于战争或危机，持续 10-12 年。当 前始于 2018-2019 年的涨势已持续六七年，若宏观环境继续支持避险 情绪及央行购金，金价或将保持强势。 全球央行购金原因包括美元信任度下降（冻结俄罗斯资产）、美国债务 问题（财政赤字和债务规模上升）、经济内生动能弱化以及新兴经济体 去发达经济体货币化趋势。 Q&A 如何理解 2025 年黄金价格的历史新高？ 2025 年初以来，金价快速攀升并屡创 ...