债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收 益如何 2025 理财市场回顾与 2026 展望 规模承接行业增量，获取"无风险"收益下探，机构分层加深。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 唐元懋(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 强者恒强，关注业绩筑底走向 2026.01.27 配置力度不减，高久期偏好更趋明确 2026.01.27 人民币升值结汇如何影响银行间流动性 2026.01.25 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条 ...

该行认为保险股是当前顺周期板块的首选 该行看好顺周期品种回暖对保险板块的估值催化，保险板块的优势主要包括两方面：1)个险与银保渠道 双轮驱动，带动2026年开门红表现持续超预期，彰显了持续低利率环境下分红险"保底+浮动"作为长期 储蓄替代的优势。一方面2025年个险开门红新单基数较低，另一方面头部险企愈发重视银保渠道，2026 年合作网点扩容叠加"以趸促期"成效显现，全年银保渠道是新单和价值增长的胜负手。长期来看，受益 于存款搬家的居民资产再配置，负债端增速有望延续，权益市场慢牛有望强化分红险自身销售逻 辑;2)2026年年初至今A股主要宽基指数震荡上行，利差不够股票来凑，看好权益慢牛格局下保险股的估 值与业绩共振机会。该行根据1H25资产配置结构测算，假设股票持仓上涨20%，对应净利润涨幅逾 40%，保险股当前具备低估值与高弹性的双重吸引力。 关注长端利率突破2.0%整数关口的信号意义 当前市场对十年期国债到期收益率利率后期走势预期偏震荡，能否持续突破2.0%整数关口存在分歧。 该行构建了10年期国债到期收益率与投资收益率假设差、信用利差和期限利差观察A股上市险企P/EV平 均估值的合理性。复盘来看，若长端 ...

保险观点更新：把握宽基抛压缓释后的顺周期龙头机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：我们认为自去年 12 月以来保险板块先后历经 " 开门红预期好转 —— 长端利率回 升 —— 指数上攻强化利润弹性 " 的顺周期逻辑，"短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看"存 款搬家 & 慢牛持续"提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧"，我们 重申板块当前投资价值。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 境内宽基 ETF 交易层面压制逐步出现转向迹象，广发中证港股通非银 ETF 持续净流 入彰显板块基本面支撑。2026 年 1 月第二个交易周以来，主要宽基 ETF 成交量明显 放大，呈现显著净流出态势。我们对 1 月 15 日至 1 月 28 日之间累计宽基 ETF 净流 出规模超过百亿元所跟踪指数进行加权，排序如下：沪深 300 指数（62.0%） ...

随着定期存款陆续到期，银行理财市场依然有着近水楼台的优势，但从长期来看，如果收益率下行趋势难以扭转，到底要如何重构自己的护城 河呢？ 虽然暂时没有全行业统一的官方口径，但不同券商测算的结果一致指向一个庞大的数字——2026年，一年期以上居民定期存款的到期规模将超过50万亿 元。 在很多人眼中，这仿佛是一个庞大的「弹药库」，就等着「存款搬家」点燃A股市场。 理想固然「丰满」，但市场对于资金流向有着更加冷静的研判：「存款到期」不等于「存款搬家」。 国金证券在研报中指出，从过去几年的数据来看，居民存款的续作率约在90%左右。这意味着绝大部分到期存款其实并没有流出银行系统，即便是发生 「存款搬家」，也主要是去向低风险资产。 作为低风险产品的典型代表，更是离存款最近的财富管理工具，这一点，在2025年银行理财市场的已经有所展现。 根据银行业理财登记托管中心最新发布的《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025年）》（下简称2025理财报告），截至2025年末，银行理财投资者数量达 到1.43亿户，同比增长14.37%；银行理财存续规模达33.29万亿元，同比增长11.15%，双双实现两位数增长。 要知道，过去一年，银行理财收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in the scale of bank wealth management sales in December 2025, with a total of 13.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.05% from November, but an increase of 10% from the beginning of the year. The growth is attributed to a "deposit migration" logic, indicating a shift in customer preferences towards wealth management products [2][6]. Group 1: Bank Performance - Postal Savings Bank showed a remarkable growth rate of 27.2%, leading among the 11 national banks, while China Merchants Bank followed with a 12.2% increase [2][4]. - In absolute terms, China Merchants Bank led with a wealth management sales scale of 4.41 trillion yuan, followed by CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank, each exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The ranking of the 11 banks remained relatively stable, with Postal Savings Bank rising from 7th to 4th place by the end of the year [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall wealth management sales scale of the 11 banks increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a 10% growth from the beginning of the year, with three banks (Postal Savings, China Merchants, and Huaxia) achieving growth rates above 10% [5][6]. - The average yield of wealth management products fell below 2% for the first time, at 1.98%, yet the number of investors increased by 14.37%, indicating a strong demand for stable-return products [8][9]. - The "deposit migration" narrative remains a key driver for the growth of wealth management, as banks focus on deeper market penetration and optimizing customer service [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that by the end of 2026, the wealth management scale could reach approximately 38 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 12% [11]. - The average risk index is expected to gradually rise, and the proportion of long-term products is anticipated to increase, while T+0 products will decrease [11].

专题：聚焦2025基金四季报：AI应用、商业航天、核聚变，谁领2026投资主线？ 近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至37.71万亿元，较上月增加约6957.48亿元， 连续第九个月创下历史新高。 据21世纪经济报道记者统计，2025年全年公募基金规模激增4.89万亿元，增幅达14.9%。 从全年整体增长结构看，2025年各类基金规模均实现正增长。其中，债基规模大增60%，股票型基金大增36%。 规模近38万亿元 近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的最新数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至 37.71万亿元，较前一月增长约6957.48 亿元。 这已是该规模连续第九个月刷新历史纪录。从2025年4月底的33.12万亿元增长至2025年12月底的37.71万亿元。 与2024年末的32.83万亿元相比，2025年全年规模激增4.89万亿元，增幅高达14.9%。 截至2025年12月底，境内共有公募基金管理机构165家，包括150家基金管理公司和15家取得公募资格的资产管理机构。 在各类基金中，货币市场基金仍以15.03万亿元的规模占据首 ...

随着银行存款利率持续下行，中长期存款的利率水平已经从3%以上降至"1"字头。今年，大批收益较高 的存款即将迎来"到期潮"，资金去向再度引发市场关注。 《国际金融报》记者注意到，当前市场观点普遍认为，不必过度担心"存款搬家"入市的问题，基于居民 风险偏好并未出现实质性变化，大多数存款仍将留在银行体系内。与此同时，低风险投资者面临到期资 金如何配置的问题，记者咨询发现，银行客户经理大多给出分散配置的建议，而分红险也成为近期的热 推产品之一。 受访专家指出，释放的资金预计将呈现"多元分散、偏重安全"的配置格局，而非集中涌入单一市场。低 风险偏好的投资者则应坚持"稳定配置、理性择品"策略，规避盲目跟风与不切实际的高收益预期。 到期存款大量入市可能性低 "银行理财成为核心承接阵地，其中低波动的固收类及'固收+'产品因收益略高于定存且风险可控，将吸 纳大量资金。部分资金会借道'固收+'基金、权益类基金间接入市，为股市带来边际增量，但受制于居 民整体风险偏好，资金大规模直接入市的可能性较低。"朱润康分析说。 东方证券分析师刘姜枫更是在研报中直言，所谓"天量"存款到期催化的"存款搬家"，以及长期累积的外 汇顺差集中结汇，通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated influx of matured deposits into the market, highlighting that concerns over a significant "deposit migration" are largely unfounded due to stable risk preferences among residents and a tendency to keep funds within the banking system [1][3]. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Market Impact - A significant amount of long-term deposits, estimated at 32 trillion yuan, will mature by 2026, with 61% expected to mature in the first quarter of this year, indicating an earlier maturity rhythm compared to previous years [2]. - Analysts suggest that the actual outflow of high-interest deposits is limited, with a marginal increase of only 1.9 trillion yuan in high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [2][3]. - The prevailing view is that the release of funds will lead to a diversified and safety-oriented allocation rather than a concentrated influx into a single market [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies for Low-Risk Investors - Low-risk investors are advised to adopt a strategy of stable allocation and rational selection, avoiding impulsive decisions and unrealistic high-return expectations [5][6]. - Financial advisors recommend diversifying investments into short-term wealth management products or low-risk "fixed income+" products, especially for those with lower return expectations [5][6]. - Insurance products, particularly dividend-paying whole life insurance, are gaining popularity as they offer higher overall rates and capital protection, albeit with potential variability in dividend payouts [6].

近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至37.71 万亿元，较上月增加约6957.48亿元，连续第九个月创下历史新高。 股票型基金同样表现亮眼，规模增长超2500亿元。同期，混合型基金、基金中基金（FOF）以及合格境 内机构投资者（QDII）基金规模也均实现不同幅度增长。 而混合型基金份额虽略有减少，但净值由3.6万亿元增至3.68万亿元，增幅4.73%。此外，FOF（基金中 基金）单月增超88亿元，规模连续四个季度环比抬升。 据21世纪经济报道记者统计，2025年全年公募基金规模激增4.89万亿元，增幅达14.9%。 从全年整体增长结构看，2025年各类基金规模均实现正增长。其中，债基规模大增60%，股票型基金大 增36%。 规模近38万亿元 近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的最新数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至 37.71万亿元，较前一月增长约6957.48亿元。 这已是该规模连续第九个月刷新历史纪录。从2025年4月底的33.12万亿元增长至2025年12月底的37.71万 亿元。 与2024年末的32.83万亿元相比，2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in maturing fixed-term deposits has led to a significant shift in investment preferences, with insurance products and bank wealth management becoming popular choices for reallocating funds [2][3][4]. Group 1: Insurance Products - Insurance has become a favored option for long-term savings, with five-year dividend insurance being particularly popular among clients, leading to substantial purchases in the millions [2][4]. - The volume of high-value insurance policies has increased, with reports of a 300 million yuan dividend insurance policy being signed recently [2][3]. - The acceptance of insurance products has risen as bank interest rates decline, with many clients in smaller cities opting for policies worth hundreds of thousands to millions [3][4]. Group 2: Bank Wealth Management - Bank wealth management products are also gaining traction as an alternative to traditional fixed-term deposits, with younger clients preferring fixed-income investments that offer better returns than deposits [5]. - Older clients tend to favor shorter-term deposits or wealth management products rather than long-term fixed deposits [5]. - Despite the low-interest environment, a significant portion of deposits is expected to remain in the banking system, with a historical tendency for over 90% of deposits to stay within banks [5][6]. Group 3: Investment in Precious Metals - A notable trend among risk-seeking depositors, referred to as "deposit special forces," is the shift towards investing in gold and silver after their fixed-term deposits mature [7][8]. - Many investors are actively trading in precious metals, with reports of substantial profits from buying and selling gold and silver [8][9]. - The enthusiasm for precious metals is reflected in the growing number of new accounts in the stock market, particularly among younger investors [10]. Group 4: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The overall sentiment among residents indicates a strong inclination towards preventive savings, with a significant increase in household deposits since 2019 [6]. - The investment landscape is shifting from a singular focus on savings to a more diversified approach that includes various financial instruments, reflecting a marginal increase in risk appetite among residents [6][10]. - The younger demographic, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, is becoming a driving force in the growth of personal investment accounts, indicating a shift in investment behavior [10].