Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - In December 2025, the growth rate of insurance premiums for both life and property insurance slowed down, but there is optimism for new business growth in life insurance by 2026 [1]. - The total premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 reached CNY 46,491 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the fourth quarter saw a significant slowdown in growth to just 0.3% [5]. - The report anticipates a strong performance for listed insurance companies in the 2026 New Year, driven by the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" and the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [5]. - Health insurance premiums grew by 2% in 2025, but the fourth quarter saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [5]. - Property insurance premiums reached CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but the growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped to 0.5% [5]. - The report highlights that the liability side and asset side of insurance companies are continuously improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5]. Summary by Sections Personal Insurance - The original premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 was CNY 46,491 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a premium income of CNY 5,191 billion, with a growth rate of only 0.3%, a decline of 24.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 saw a monthly premium income of CNY 2,152 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [5]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in 2025 increased by 2.0%, but the fourth quarter experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [5]. - The report notes that the health insurance market has significant growth potential due to product innovation and scientific pricing [5]. Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums totaled CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a growth rate of only 0.5%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 recorded a monthly premium income of CNY 1,413 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market demand remains strong, and the optimization of liability costs will alleviate pressure from interest rate spreads [5]. - The valuation of insurance stocks is currently at historical lows, with the insurance sector's estimated valuation for January 30, 2026, ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 times PEV and 1.15 to 2.38 times PB [5].

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收 益如何 2025 理财市场回顾与 2026 展望 规模承接行业增量，获取"无风险"收益下探，机构分层加深。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 唐元懋(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 强者恒强，关注业绩筑底走向 2026.01.27 配置力度不减，高久期偏好更趋明确 2026.01.27 人民币升值结汇如何影响银行间流动性 2026.01.25 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条 ...

该行认为保险股是当前顺周期板块的首选 该行看好顺周期品种回暖对保险板块的估值催化，保险板块的优势主要包括两方面：1)个险与银保渠道 双轮驱动，带动2026年开门红表现持续超预期，彰显了持续低利率环境下分红险"保底+浮动"作为长期 储蓄替代的优势。一方面2025年个险开门红新单基数较低，另一方面头部险企愈发重视银保渠道，2026 年合作网点扩容叠加"以趸促期"成效显现，全年银保渠道是新单和价值增长的胜负手。长期来看，受益 于存款搬家的居民资产再配置，负债端增速有望延续，权益市场慢牛有望强化分红险自身销售逻 辑;2)2026年年初至今A股主要宽基指数震荡上行，利差不够股票来凑，看好权益慢牛格局下保险股的估 值与业绩共振机会。该行根据1H25资产配置结构测算，假设股票持仓上涨20%，对应净利润涨幅逾 40%，保险股当前具备低估值与高弹性的双重吸引力。 关注长端利率突破2.0%整数关口的信号意义 当前市场对十年期国债到期收益率利率后期走势预期偏震荡，能否持续突破2.0%整数关口存在分歧。 该行构建了10年期国债到期收益率与投资收益率假设差、信用利差和期限利差观察A股上市险企P/EV平 均估值的合理性。复盘来看，若长端 ...

保险观点更新：把握宽基抛压缓释后的顺周期龙头机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：我们认为自去年 12 月以来保险板块先后历经 " 开门红预期好转 —— 长端利率回 升 —— 指数上攻强化利润弹性 " 的顺周期逻辑，"短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看"存 款搬家 & 慢牛持续"提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧"，我们 重申板块当前投资价值。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 境内宽基 ETF 交易层面压制逐步出现转向迹象，广发中证港股通非银 ETF 持续净流 入彰显板块基本面支撑。2026 年 1 月第二个交易周以来，主要宽基 ETF 成交量明显 放大，呈现显著净流出态势。我们对 1 月 15 日至 1 月 28 日之间累计宽基 ETF 净流 出规模超过百亿元所跟踪指数进行加权，排序如下：沪深 300 指数（62.0%） ...

随着定期存款陆续到期，银行理财市场依然有着近水楼台的优势，但从长期来看，如果收益率下行趋势难以扭转，到底要如何重构自己的护城 河呢？ 虽然暂时没有全行业统一的官方口径，但不同券商测算的结果一致指向一个庞大的数字——2026年，一年期以上居民定期存款的到期规模将超过50万亿 元。 在很多人眼中，这仿佛是一个庞大的「弹药库」，就等着「存款搬家」点燃A股市场。 理想固然「丰满」，但市场对于资金流向有着更加冷静的研判：「存款到期」不等于「存款搬家」。 国金证券在研报中指出，从过去几年的数据来看，居民存款的续作率约在90%左右。这意味着绝大部分到期存款其实并没有流出银行系统，即便是发生 「存款搬家」，也主要是去向低风险资产。 作为低风险产品的典型代表，更是离存款最近的财富管理工具，这一点，在2025年银行理财市场的已经有所展现。 根据银行业理财登记托管中心最新发布的《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025年）》（下简称2025理财报告），截至2025年末，银行理财投资者数量达 到1.43亿户，同比增长14.37%；银行理财存续规模达33.29万亿元，同比增长11.15%，双双实现两位数增长。 要知道，过去一年，银行理财收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in the scale of bank wealth management sales in December 2025, with a total of 13.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.05% from November, but an increase of 10% from the beginning of the year. The growth is attributed to a "deposit migration" logic, indicating a shift in customer preferences towards wealth management products [2][6]. Group 1: Bank Performance - Postal Savings Bank showed a remarkable growth rate of 27.2%, leading among the 11 national banks, while China Merchants Bank followed with a 12.2% increase [2][4]. - In absolute terms, China Merchants Bank led with a wealth management sales scale of 4.41 trillion yuan, followed by CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank, each exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The ranking of the 11 banks remained relatively stable, with Postal Savings Bank rising from 7th to 4th place by the end of the year [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall wealth management sales scale of the 11 banks increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a 10% growth from the beginning of the year, with three banks (Postal Savings, China Merchants, and Huaxia) achieving growth rates above 10% [5][6]. - The average yield of wealth management products fell below 2% for the first time, at 1.98%, yet the number of investors increased by 14.37%, indicating a strong demand for stable-return products [8][9]. - The "deposit migration" narrative remains a key driver for the growth of wealth management, as banks focus on deeper market penetration and optimizing customer service [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that by the end of 2026, the wealth management scale could reach approximately 38 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 12% [11]. - The average risk index is expected to gradually rise, and the proportion of long-term products is anticipated to increase, while T+0 products will decrease [11].

专题：聚焦2025基金四季报：AI应用、商业航天、核聚变，谁领2026投资主线？ 近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至37.71万亿元，较上月增加约6957.48亿元， 连续第九个月创下历史新高。 据21世纪经济报道记者统计，2025年全年公募基金规模激增4.89万亿元，增幅达14.9%。 从全年整体增长结构看，2025年各类基金规模均实现正增长。其中，债基规模大增60%，股票型基金大增36%。 规模近38万亿元 近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的最新数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至 37.71万亿元，较前一月增长约6957.48 亿元。 这已是该规模连续第九个月刷新历史纪录。从2025年4月底的33.12万亿元增长至2025年12月底的37.71万亿元。 与2024年末的32.83万亿元相比，2025年全年规模激增4.89万亿元，增幅高达14.9%。 截至2025年12月底，境内共有公募基金管理机构165家，包括150家基金管理公司和15家取得公募资格的资产管理机构。 在各类基金中，货币市场基金仍以15.03万亿元的规模占据首 ...

随着银行存款利率持续下行，中长期存款的利率水平已经从3%以上降至"1"字头。今年，大批收益较高 的存款即将迎来"到期潮"，资金去向再度引发市场关注。 《国际金融报》记者注意到，当前市场观点普遍认为，不必过度担心"存款搬家"入市的问题，基于居民 风险偏好并未出现实质性变化，大多数存款仍将留在银行体系内。与此同时，低风险投资者面临到期资 金如何配置的问题，记者咨询发现，银行客户经理大多给出分散配置的建议，而分红险也成为近期的热 推产品之一。 受访专家指出，释放的资金预计将呈现"多元分散、偏重安全"的配置格局，而非集中涌入单一市场。低 风险偏好的投资者则应坚持"稳定配置、理性择品"策略，规避盲目跟风与不切实际的高收益预期。 到期存款大量入市可能性低 "银行理财成为核心承接阵地，其中低波动的固收类及'固收+'产品因收益略高于定存且风险可控，将吸 纳大量资金。部分资金会借道'固收+'基金、权益类基金间接入市，为股市带来边际增量，但受制于居 民整体风险偏好，资金大规模直接入市的可能性较低。"朱润康分析说。 东方证券分析师刘姜枫更是在研报中直言，所谓"天量"存款到期催化的"存款搬家"，以及长期累积的外 汇顺差集中结汇，通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated influx of matured deposits into the market, highlighting that concerns over a significant "deposit migration" are largely unfounded due to stable risk preferences among residents and a tendency to keep funds within the banking system [1][3]. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Market Impact - A significant amount of long-term deposits, estimated at 32 trillion yuan, will mature by 2026, with 61% expected to mature in the first quarter of this year, indicating an earlier maturity rhythm compared to previous years [2]. - Analysts suggest that the actual outflow of high-interest deposits is limited, with a marginal increase of only 1.9 trillion yuan in high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [2][3]. - The prevailing view is that the release of funds will lead to a diversified and safety-oriented allocation rather than a concentrated influx into a single market [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies for Low-Risk Investors - Low-risk investors are advised to adopt a strategy of stable allocation and rational selection, avoiding impulsive decisions and unrealistic high-return expectations [5][6]. - Financial advisors recommend diversifying investments into short-term wealth management products or low-risk "fixed income+" products, especially for those with lower return expectations [5][6]. - Insurance products, particularly dividend-paying whole life insurance, are gaining popularity as they offer higher overall rates and capital protection, albeit with potential variability in dividend payouts [6].

近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至37.71 万亿元，较上月增加约6957.48亿元，连续第九个月创下历史新高。 股票型基金同样表现亮眼，规模增长超2500亿元。同期，混合型基金、基金中基金（FOF）以及合格境 内机构投资者（QDII）基金规模也均实现不同幅度增长。 而混合型基金份额虽略有减少，但净值由3.6万亿元增至3.68万亿元，增幅4.73%。此外，FOF（基金中 基金）单月增超88亿元，规模连续四个季度环比抬升。 据21世纪经济报道记者统计，2025年全年公募基金规模激增4.89万亿元，增幅达14.9%。 从全年整体增长结构看，2025年各类基金规模均实现正增长。其中，债基规模大增60%，股票型基金大 增36%。 规模近38万亿元 近日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的最新数据显示，截至2025年12月底，我国公募基金总规模攀升至 37.71万亿元，较前一月增长约6957.48亿元。 这已是该规模连续第九个月刷新历史纪录。从2025年4月底的33.12万亿元增长至2025年12月底的37.71万 亿元。 与2024年末的32.83万亿元相比，2025 ...