黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-08-2 970 965 960 955 950 945 940 935 930 2025-06-27 2025-06-11 2025-07-18 2025-08-06 10:58 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 958.21 吨黄金 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 截至8月20日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为958.21吨，较前一个交易日减少4吨。8月20日，现货黄金终于迎来反弹，盘中最高升至3350.27 美元/盎司，收于3348.24美元/盎司，涨32.69美元或0.91%。在金价反弹之际，黄金ETF持仓量连续第二个交易日减少。 基本面消息，由于市场担忧科技股的高估值，尤其是芯片股等板块的大幅下挫，美股遭遇持续抛售，再加上美联储会议纪要释放"多数决策者认为，通胀上 行风险超过就业下行风险"，进一步加剧了美股的抛售情绪。 首先，科技股抛售背后，缘于麻省理工学院（MIT）某研究分支机构在一份报告中称，高达"95%的组织在生成式AI投资中获得的回报为零"，并且"只有5% 的集成AI试点项目获得 ...

SHMET 网讯：会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者对通胀、就业、特朗普政府的关税政策影响均未有一致看法，主 流观点是，相比就业，通胀的风险更让人担心。从这个角度看，本次纪要偏鹰派。 截至7月30日的会上，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC再次决定按兵不动，但会后决议显示，两名理事——被传为下任美联储主席热门人选的沃勒和"特朗 普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼因主张立即降息投了反对票。这是三十多年首次出现如此多的联储理事对利率决议持异议。 美东时间8月20日周三公布的会议纪要也显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对 通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 经济方面，一些人预计美国经济活动将保持稳健，还有些人预计下半年将延续上半年的低增长。 此外，美联储官员普遍认为需要监控一些金融市场存在的脆弱性，一些人表达了对美国国债市场脆弱性的担忧，还有人指出银行和外汇掉期方面的担 忧。多人讨论了最近出台稳定币法案后此类数字资产的影响，与会者认为，应 ...

周三，美国股市在科技股普遍承压的背景下再度走低，三大股指收盘涨跌不一。其中标普500指数下跌0.24%，收于6395.78 点，连续第四个交易日走低；以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.67%，收报21172.86点，录得连续第二个交易日下 跌。 周三市场另一大关注点在于美联储7月会议纪要的公布。根据周三公布的会议纪要，官员们普遍认为劳动力市场和通胀形势 存在风险，但多数人仍坚持认为现在降息为时过早。最终， 美联储选择维持基准利率不变，但两位联邦储备委员会成员罕 见地投下了反对票，要求立即降息。这是30多年来首次出现多位理事同时反对利率决议的情况，凸显了决策层内部的分 歧。 此外，特朗普喊话美联储理事库克立即辞职，从而进一步加大对美联储的施压力度。据彭博社报道，美国联邦住房金融局 （FHFA）局长呼吁美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪对库克在两笔抵押贷款中的问题展开调查。 标普500指数录得四连跌 当地时间周三，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指涨0.04%报44938.31点，标普500指数跌0.24%报6395.78点， 录得连续第四日下跌，纳指跌0.67%报21172.86点。 盘面上，抛售压力主要来自科技 ...

昨夜，欧美股市多数收跌，其中，纳指跌超0.6%，标普500指数四连跌，道指小幅飘红，英国富时100 指数涨超1%。科技股普跌，英特尔跌近7%，苹果跌近2%。 投下反对票的两位理事是沃勒和鲍曼，他们倾向于在本次会议上就开始降息。 特朗普最新表示，库克现在"必须辞职"。此前有消息称，美国联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特致信司 法部长帕姆·邦迪，指控库克在两笔抵押贷款中涉嫌伪造银行文件和财产记录以获取优惠贷款条件，可 能构成刑事犯罪。 不过，库克最新表示，她无意被迫辞职。 库克通过发言人以电子邮件形式发表声明称："我无意因社交媒体上的指控被迫辞职。作为美联储成 员，我严肃对待个人财务历史相关问题，目前正在整理准确信息以回应合理质疑。"这番表态直接回应 了美国总统特朗普的辞职要求。 美联储公布7月会议纪要 消息面上，美联储公布了7月会议纪要。 根据周三公布的会议纪要，官员们普遍认为劳动力市场和通胀形势存在风险，但多数人仍坚持认为现在 降息为时过早。最终，美联储选择维持基准利率不变，但两位联邦储备委员会成员罕见地投下了反对 票，要求立即降息。这是30多年来首次出现多位理事同时反对利率决议的情况，凸显了决策层内部的分 歧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding monetary policy have become more pronounced, highlighting the complexities faced by decision-makers amid concerns over tariffs, inflation risks, and employment market conditions [2][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Disagreements - The FOMC's meeting minutes revealed that two officials voted against maintaining the current interest rate, advocating for a 25 basis point cut to mitigate potential labor market deterioration [4]. - Most officials believe that the risks of rising inflation outweigh the risks of declining employment, indicating a split in perspectives on economic conditions [4][5]. Inflation Risks - Officials expressed concerns about the uncertain impacts of tariff policies on inflation and the potential instability of inflation expectations [6]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with recent increases in goods price inflation attributed to tariffs [7]. Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook remains high, with officials emphasizing the dual mandate of full employment and price stability facing significant risks [5][6]. - Many officials expect inflation to rise in the short term, influenced by the timing and magnitude of tariff increases implemented by the previous administration [7]. Financial Stability Concerns - The minutes highlighted vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, particularly high asset valuations, which have raised concerns among officials [10]. - Recent sell-offs in high-valuation tech stocks have been noted, with market participants expressing caution regarding the sustainability of these valuations [10]. Stablecoin Implications - Officials discussed the potential rise of stablecoins following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which could enhance payment system efficiency but also raise concerns about their impact on the financial system and monetary policy [11]. - The need for close monitoring of the assets backing stablecoins was emphasized, given their potential influence on the banking system and financial stability [11].

会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者对通胀、就业、特朗普政府的关 税政策影响均未有一致看法，主流观点是，相比就业，通胀的风险更让人担心。从这个角度看，本次纪 要偏鹰派。 截至7月30日的会上，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC再次决定按兵不动，但会后决议显示，两名理事 ——被传为下任美联储主席热门人选的沃勒和"特朗普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼因主张立即降 息投了反对票。这是三十多年首次出现如此多的联储理事对利率决议持异议。 美东时间8月20日周三公布的会议纪要也显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反 对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认 为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 经济方面，一些人预计美国经济活动将保持稳健，还有些人预计下半年将延续上半年的低增长。 此外，美联储官员普遍认为需要监控一些金融市场存在的脆弱性，一些人表达了对美国国债市场脆弱性 的担忧，还有人指出银行和外汇掉期方面的担忧。多人讨论了最近出台稳定币法案后此类数字资产的影 响，与会者认为，应高度关注其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with a majority of decision-makers believing that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, while some view the risks as balanced, and a couple emphasize employment risks more prominently [1][4][6]. Economic Outlook - Some participants expect the U.S. economic activity to remain robust, while others predict a continuation of low growth in the second half of the year [3]. Inflation and Employment Risks - A majority of participants express concern over inflation risks compared to employment risks, with discussions indicating that the uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high [6][4]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is still slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, with many participants noting that the effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [7][10]. Tariff Impact on Inflation - Many participants believe that the full impact of tariffs may take time to manifest in consumer prices, with some indicating that domestic companies and consumers bear most of the tariff costs [8][9]. - There is a divergence of opinions regarding whether tariff increases will lead to a one-time price spike or sustained inflation, with some emphasizing the importance of maintaining stable long-term inflation expectations [10][11]. Financial Market Vulnerabilities - Participants express concerns about vulnerabilities in the financial markets, particularly regarding the U.S. Treasury market and the potential impact of stablecoins on the financial system and monetary policy [5][14]. - The discussion includes worries about high asset valuations and the ability of market makers to act as intermediaries, as well as risks associated with foreign exchange swaps [14][15]. Stablecoins and Monetary Policy - The recent developments in stablecoin legislation are expected to increase their usage, potentially enhancing payment system efficiency and raising demand for supporting assets like U.S. Treasuries [15]. - Participants emphasize the need for close monitoring of the implications of stablecoins on the banking system and overall financial stability [15].

Group 1 - Marc Sumerlin, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for a significant interest rate cut next month, warning that rising long-term Treasury yields could halt this action [1][2] - Sumerlin identifies the real estate sector as the weakest link in the current market, emphasizing the need to prevent long-term interest rates from rising [1] - He notes that the Federal Reserve has a 50 basis point room for a rate cut based on the current yield curve, with the target range for the overnight rate at 4.25%-4.5% and the six-month Treasury yield at 3.94% [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has increased due to disappointing employment reports, with market pricing indicating over a 90% chance of a cut next month [2] - Sumerlin has been mentioned as a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May next year, having previously served as an economic policy advisor under President George W. Bush [2]

特朗普近期频繁与经济学界围绕就业、通胀和关税相关数据及研判发生冲突。本月初，特朗普因劳工统 计局最新发布的就业数据显著弱于市场预期而解雇劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗。 《华尔街日报》注意到，被特朗普针对的哈丘斯曾因2008年准确预测次级抵押贷款违约潮可能导致严重 经济衰退而闻名。他关于美国当前关税政策将削弱就业和经济增长前景、推高通胀的观点得到众多经济 学家认同。 另据《财富》杂志援引世界大型企业联合会最新报告，针对第三季度美国企业负责人的信心调查显示， 64%的企业首席执行官确信关税带来的价格上涨将会转嫁给消费者。 新华社华盛顿8月13日电 美国高盛集团日前发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本 中越来越大的份额。美国总统特朗普12日针对这一观点发文表示，高盛经济学家"应该换人"，集团首席 执行官应该改行做"打碟师（DJ）"。 高盛10日发布的最新报告认为，截至6月美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业转嫁关 税成本，预计到今年10月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门及其经济研究团队，称 其对关税的相关预 ...

Employment Stability and Economic Growth - Employment is viewed as a "barometer" of economic development and a "ballast" for social stability, with the national urban survey unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first half of the year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating overall stability in employment [1] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supporting improvements in employment, with unemployment rates dropping to 5.1% and 5% in April and May respectively, and stabilizing at 5% in June [3] Industry-Specific Employment Trends - The optical products company in Jingzhou, Hubei, has added approximately 500 employees this year, marking its largest recruitment year, driven by strong demand for prism products in the consumer electronics sector [2] - In the second quarter, recruitment in industries such as humanoid robots, new materials, and smart hardware saw year-on-year increases of 398.1%, 72.1%, and 50.3% respectively, with several other sectors also experiencing significant growth [3] Support for Employment Initiatives - Various local governments are implementing employment-first policies and enhancing employment promotion mechanisms to support job stability and growth, with companies benefiting from social security and job subsidies totaling 648,000 yuan [3] - The government has introduced a series of policies to support employment, including expanding the scope of special loans for job stabilization and increasing the unemployment insurance return ratio for relevant enterprises [9] Focus on Youth Employment - The number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to reach a record high of 12.22 million, prompting local governments to prioritize employment services for this demographic [5] - Educational institutions are actively organizing online recruitment events and implementing training programs to enhance graduates' employability, with a focus on aligning skills with industry needs [6][11] Skills Training and Development - A significant push for skills training is underway, with plans to subsidize vocational skills training for over 10 million people annually in key sectors such as advanced manufacturing and modern services [11] - Companies are increasingly recognizing their social responsibility by providing job opportunities for disadvantaged groups, supported by government incentives that enhance their capacity to hire more employees [4]