Core Viewpoint - April is a critical observation period for fundamental and policy changes, with key focuses on potential risks of fundamental fluctuations, the marginal easing of central bank attitudes, and the further developments following the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration [1] Macro: Economic Cycle Position and State - The current Chinese economy exhibits three significant characteristics: 1. The phase of maximum downward pressure has likely passed, with the inventory cycle indicating that 2022-2023 was the most challenging period, and the low point of this cycle is expected to be at the end of 2023 to early 2024 [2] 2. Moving away from the peak of downward pressure does not imply a rapid rebound, as recent cycles indicate that the economy remains in a state of fluctuation [2] 3. Short-term economic recovery faces obstacles due to external trade pressures and slow recovery in real estate investment and consumption [2] Policy: Important Observation Window for Central Bank Attitude - April serves as a crucial observation window for the central bank's stance, focusing on liquidity management and potential hawkish signals, especially in light of significant bond issuance pressure [3] - The speed and proportion of government bond issuance in April will be vital for determining economic conditions in the second quarter [3] Overseas: Subtle Changes in Sentiment - The overall performance of the U.S. economy shows marginal changes, with a slight increase in unemployment and resilient labor market conditions, while retail sales have improved from negative growth [4] - Investor sentiment is changing rapidly, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies [4] Major Asset Strategy Judgments - A-shares are experiencing a style switch, driven by clearer fundamental outlines and cyclical changes in market sentiment, leading to a shift in market style [5] - Bond market rates are expected to remain volatile, with the central bank's liquidity stance influencing bond yields [6] - Commodity prices, particularly copper and gold, are shifting focus back to fundamentals as tariff expectations have been priced in [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6%, the CSI 300 Index down 2.29%, and the Wind All A Index down 2.1% [1] - Industry performance varied, with construction materials, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities showing strong results, while sectors like computers, media, electronics, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] - The market style is leaning towards mid-cap value stocks, with an average daily trading volume of 15,496.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic data for January and February showed overall improvement, especially considering the high base from the previous year; the GDP growth rates for the first two quarters of last year were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with expectations for a smoother performance this year [2] - If macro data remains stable, certain cyclical sectors may outperform expectations, requiring analysis based on industry characteristics [2] - Industries experiencing upward inventory cycles are noteworthy, as they have struggled for investor recognition in the past two years, and current downstream replenishment activities may lead to valuation and performance increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying mispricing in asset prices across different economic cycles to find investment opportunities and risks [2]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Investment Timing - The Kondratiev cycle lasts approximately 50-60 years and involves technological revolutions, while the Juglar cycle is about 10 years and relates to equipment investment [3]. - The current economic situation indicates that after experiencing a downturn in the real estate sector and high inventory levels in 2022, a recovery phase is expected to begin in the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global inventory cycle bottoming out [4]. - Historical data shows that when the M1-M2 growth rate drops below 10%, it typically signals a market bottom, with a recovery expected after September 2024 [5]. Group 2: Price and Profit Relationships - Price movements generally lead inventory changes by 1-3 quarters, while corporate profits follow inventory changes by 2-4 quarters, indicating a sequential relationship in the economic cycle [6]. - The consumer electronics sector has experienced a peak in revenue growth since Q1 2021, followed by a decline, entering a destocking phase until 2024, when a recovery is anticipated due to AI technology and policy support [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Identifying Opportunities - During earnings season, companies that exceed performance expectations should be closely monitored to assess the reasons behind their outperformance and determine their position in the economic cycle [7]. - The focus should be on two types of companies: undervalued growth stocks, particularly in technology, and companies facing pessimistic pricing due to cyclical downturns, which may rebound as conditions improve [8][9]. - A thorough data validation process is necessary to assess the sustainability of the identified valuation discrepancies, including monitoring high-frequency data such as inventory levels and gross margins [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A combination of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up company performance evaluation is recommended for selecting stocks, allowing for both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI index for February 2025 shows a slight recovery to 50.6, indicating a phase of resilience in the global economy, but it remains fragile, characterized by "China's stability, emerging markets warming, Europe bottoming out, the US declining, and Canada and Mexico contracting" [1][2]. Regional Analysis - **Asia**: Economic performance remains mixed, with China's manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 due to accelerated resumption of work and production. Japan and South Korea's PMIs are near the threshold, at 49.0 and 49.9 respectively, while Southeast Asia shows marginal improvement [3]. - **Europe**: Most countries show marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI but remain in contraction territory. Germany's PMI is at 46.5, slightly above previous values, indicating a need for cautious optimism as the Eurozone's GDP growth remains around zero [3]. - **Americas**: Canada and Mexico's manufacturing PMIs have declined, with Canada's PMI dropping significantly from 51.6 to 47.8, indicating a return to contraction [3]. US Manufacturing Insights - The US manufacturing PMI for February is recorded at 50.3, down from 50.9, failing to maintain the earlier signs of resilience. Key indicators show a decline in supply and demand, rising inflation, and a cooling labor market [4]. - The inventory cycle is still in a bottoming phase, and trade issues may continue to impact US foreign trade performance in the second quarter. The expectation is for the US manufacturing PMI to fluctuate around 50 in the first half of the year [4]. Export Trends - South Korea's export growth improved from -10.2% to 1%, influenced by "export rush" and temporary recovery in US manufacturing demand. China's export growth increased by 4.0 percentage points to 10.7% in December 2024 [5]. - Geopolitical factors and the pace of overseas tariff increases will be crucial variables affecting China's export growth in 2025, with potential short-term benefits from "export rush" before tariffs take effect [5].

中国宏观经济2025年3月报 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 经济修复步伐略有加快 宏观焦点转向政策 方正中期研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 F3050205(从业) Z0013871(投资咨询) 2025年2月28日 www.founderfu.com CONTENT 目录 第一部分 经济基本面与宏观供需 第二部分 价格水平变动情况 第三部分 货币与财政政策 第四部分 汇率与商品市场波动 2 基本面与宏观供需——主要观点 年初以来国内经济基本延续去年四季度的修复趋势，且春节假期后修复速度略有加快。其中消费增长略超预期，投资暂 时变动不大，出口则维持一定韧性。当前公布的1、2月经济数据不多，我们本期更多从高频数据角度观察经济。 产出方面，春节前后受到假期影响，主要工业品生产以及建筑业生产放缓，但服务业产出增长明显。对于制造业，发电 量、汽车轮胎开工等基本稳定。我们认为短期来看库存周期暂时处于加库存阶段，政策影响依然巨大，且外需带动也没 有减弱。但今年仍面临库存周期回落的潜在影响，这也将是经济持续面临的内生风险。 需求方面，外需有望维持任性，从高频和领先数据看，半导体等高端制造业出口仍存在继 ...

以下文章来源于A视野 ，作者ME A森 A视野 . 发现一个真实的世界 作者：ME A森 来源：A视野（ID： AndsonVision ） 01 最近，不少人询问： 是不是行情结束了？ 如果将行情仅仅定义为9月底的那种风格，那么，近期要再看到，颇有难度了。 可是，如果我们说的是全面救市引发的牛市行情，我的态度是，这才哪儿到哪儿？整个行情才刚刚启 动！ 这次散户一看村里这么大的阵仗，还有信用背书，冲的比机构都快。 这种玩法，你觉得是村里要的东西吗？ 所以，散户猜中了村里信用背书的用意，却没有去顾及村里想要的节奏、村里的难处和村里希望救市 红利的周期。 这也就导致不少人在10月8日开盘就冲进去后，直接站岗。 外需增速要不行了，拉内需正当其时！ 然后，不明就里的冲进去后，又不明就里的骂骂咧咧，这其实是对自己手里的真金白银的浪费，很不 应该。 必须看到， 我们跟鹰酱的博弈，仍在如火如荼之中，这才是时代底色。 只不过，鹰酱现在秉持的"攘外必先安内"的原则。 大家不要觉得吹牛老爹进去了，好像就跟鹰酱大选没关系，好像就是娱乐圈的花边新闻。 鹰酱近期内部乱的很，多方都想趁机去拿捏它们。 小以要拿捏，大毛要拿捏，弯弯要拿捏， ...