近日，蓝鲸新闻记者专访了华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜。张瑜长期从事国内外宏观经济、大类资产配置、人民币汇率及金融 市场等方面研究，屡屡提出鲜明的市场观点，连续多年获得新财富最佳宏观分析师称号，在宏观分析领域颇具影响力。今年10月的总理座谈会 上，张瑜应邀发言，发挥专业特长，为国家宏观经济工作建言献策。 图片来源：视觉中国 蓝鲸新闻11月18日讯 （记者 李丹萍 胡劼）全方位扩大内需是推动我国经济持续回升向好、实现高质量发展的必然选择，放眼2026年，哪些措 施能促进消费的有效提振？面对外部冲击，我国外贸展现出强大韧性，但外需整体放缓，如何看待外贸出口形势？资本浪潮涌动，全球视野下 的中国资产正经历一场价值重估。坚定看好中国资产的投资价值，又需要重点关注哪些主线，遵循怎样的逻辑？ 蓝鲸新闻：今年前三季度的经济数据已经出来，对全年经济形势基本定调，市场普遍认为GDP5%的增长目标预期可实现。您有观点提出"经 济循环最差的时候正在过去"，应该如何理解，是否经济周期拐点将近？ 张瑜：我们提出经济循环最差的时候正在过去，是基于三年来第一次观察到经济领先指标的全部向上，意味着我们在这个位置上，对经济循环 有了 ...

建议在"十五五"期间，中央额外发行约10万亿元的"新型城镇化特别国债"，以每年2万亿元左右的节奏投入，直接下达到县级政府。——李稻 葵 2025年11月13日，"中国新型城镇化理论·政策·实践论坛2025"在清华大学举办，胡祖才、江小涓、范恒山、李稻葵、魏后凯等多位专家学者参会，共同探 讨"十五五"时期中国城镇化发展图景。 以下为李稻葵在论坛上发表的主旨演讲精编。 清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵指出，"十五五"的核心任务之一是促进和扩大内需，以确保经济增长率不仅得以维持，更能逐步恢复到合 理水平，这一任务的紧迫性超出了一般预期。 在扩大内需的诸多抓手中，新型城镇化被视为最重要的发力点之一。"要大幅提升全国的消费和投资需求，必须让尚未城镇化的7亿人口逐步融入现代经济 生活，通过提高他们的城镇化水平来释放巨大的消费潜能。" 应当恢复到约7%左右" 从经济学家角度来看，"十五五"规划时期国家需要着力完成两项核心任务。 第一，在日益激烈的国际竞争中占据战略制高点，实现高水平科技自立自强。这意味着必须把科技创新置于优先位置，推动科技、人才、教育"三位一 体"的协同融合发展。 第二，要促进和扩大内需，以确保经 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines China's development blueprint for the next five years, emphasizing the importance of understanding it to identify future investment opportunities [2][16]. Group 1: Emerging Industries and Investment Opportunities - The plan aims to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, potentially creating several trillion-level markets [7]. - The next decade could see the scale of new industries equivalent to recreating China's high-tech industry [7]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas for Technological Advancement - The plan emphasizes the need for breakthroughs in critical core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and high-end instruments [8]. - It highlights the role of enterprises in driving technological innovation and supporting the growth of high-tech and technology-oriented SMEs [9]. Group 3: Domestic Market Development - The strategy includes measures to strengthen the domestic market and facilitate a smooth domestic circulation, focusing on expanding consumption and developing international consumer center cities [10][11]. - It calls for a shift from price competition to quality competition among enterprises to establish a healthy market order [11]. Group 4: National Security and Emerging Fields - The plan addresses the need to enhance security capabilities in traditional areas like food and energy, as well as emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology [12]. - This focus on security is expected to create new development opportunities in sectors like cybersecurity, national defense, and energy resources [12]. Group 5: Investment Themes in A-Share Market - Five key investment themes are identified: hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, new energy, and biomanufacturing [14]. - The plan aims to rectify disorderly competition, which may benefit leading companies in solar energy, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [14]. - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumption in sectors like automotive, housing, and tourism, indicating potential growth in these areas [14]. - The implementation of major national strategies and the enhancement of security capabilities are expected to drive growth in industries like construction materials, machinery, new energy, and cybersecurity [14]. - The financial sector is also highlighted, with banks, securities, and insurance institutions currently valued at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [14].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of encouraging consumption while opposing waste, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to economic growth and sustainability [1][6]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Economic Growth - The article discusses the case of a drone enthusiast who, taking advantage of a trade-in policy, invested in a drone setup, reflecting a shift towards effective demand and quality supply in the consumer market [2]. - The growth of the civil drone industry in China is noted as a significant contributor to the low-altitude economy, creating new job opportunities and promoting high-quality employment [2]. - The article stresses that encouraging consumption and opposing waste leads to more effective growth, aligning with sustainable economic development [2]. Group 2: Green Consumption - A case study of an electric vehicle owner illustrates the benefits of green consumption, where participation in a vehicle-to-grid program can yield financial returns while reducing carbon emissions [3]. - The shift towards green products is highlighted, with policies supporting green consumption becoming increasingly influential in consumer choices [3]. - The article argues that opposing waste is not about reducing consumption but about enhancing the quality of life and meeting the growing demands for better living standards [3]. Group 3: Cultural Consumption - The article highlights the rising trend of cultural consumption, with increased attendance at performances and events, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards experiences rather than material goods [4]. - The growth in ticket sales and cultural events reflects a change in consumer behavior, where value is placed on quality experiences [4]. - The integration of culture and commerce is seen as a new landscape for consumption, fostering regional development and enhancing local brands [4]. Group 4: Government Spending and Social Welfare - The article presents a case of local government spending in Zhejiang, where a significant portion of the budget is allocated to social welfare rather than extravagant expenditures, reflecting a commitment to improving citizens' lives [5]. - The increase in social spending by 21.1% year-on-year indicates a focus on investing in people and enhancing public welfare [5]. - The government's approach to fiscal responsibility is framed as a means to build public trust and ensure that resources are directed towards meaningful social initiatives [5].

10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》） 正式发布。记者注意到，此次《建议》在投资、消费等领域出现多个新提法。这些新提法背后有怎样的 深意？在我国经济迈向"十五五"的关键节点，如何破解消费率偏低、内需动力不足的深层矛盾？面对复 杂严峻的国内外环境，深化改革的突破口究竟在哪里？ 带着这些关乎经济发展全局的核心问题，近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访了第十 四届全国政协委员尹艳林。尹艳林深耕宏观经济领域多年，曾长期任职于国家发改委和原中央财经领导 小组办公室，对中国经济体制改革、供需结构调整等议题有着深刻洞察和独到见解。他对扩大内需、全 国统一大市场等领域的问题，都提出了具体的改革方向和建议。 新型城镇化仍然是经济增长的重要引擎 NBD：《建议》在"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标中提出，全要素生产率稳步提升，居民消费率 明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强。这对今后几年的经济发展会产生哪些影响？ 尹艳林：全要素生产率稳步提升对应高质量发展阶段的创新驱动逻辑。创新发挥作用，首先就表现在全 要素生产率的提升。这一表述是从供给端突出科技进步 ...

Economic Outlook - The difficulty of achieving the annual economic growth target has decreased, reducing the necessity for macro policy intensification within the year[1] - Expanding domestic demand remains crucial for stabilizing the economy, with service consumption expected to be a core driver of consumption growth[1] Consumption Trends - In October, the weighted year-on-year growth rate of investment, retail, and exports was -4.29%, indicating a decline in demand momentum[10] - Retail sales growth continued to weaken, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in October, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[13] - Service consumption is outpacing goods consumption, with education, culture, and entertainment services growing by 10.4% and transportation and communication services by 7.73% in September[22] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, with real estate investment down by 14.7%[25] - Infrastructure investment has turned negative for the first time this year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1%[25] - New infrastructure investment opportunities are highlighted, particularly in information communication networks and major technological infrastructure[26] Policy Recommendations - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support credit growth for the upcoming year[35] - Policies should focus on stabilizing the real estate market to facilitate a smooth industry transition, which is critical for short-term economic growth[34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, leading to a decrease in raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has been restored, and stainless - steel mills are expected to increase production, resulting in increased supply pressure. - The demand in the off - peak season is weak, with low market purchasing willingness and general inquiry and transaction performance. The national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase. - Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in price, the bearish sentiment is strong, and the price is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,415 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spread between the 12 - 01 contracts is - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,376 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 983 lots; the position of the main contract is 172,728 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4,992 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 69,289 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. - The basis of the SS main contract is 455 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 118,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 900 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 591,200 tons, with an increase of 20,400 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, with an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, with a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies and measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The Ministry of Finance will effectively implement a proactive fiscal policy, adhere to expanding domestic demand, and support the construction of a strong domestic market. - China released its October economic data, showing that the growth rates of industry, social consumer goods retail, investment, and real - estate sales were all lower than the previous values to varying degrees. - The schedule for important US data has been determined: the September non - farm payrolls will be released on November 20th, and the PCE, the Fed's preferred indicator, will be released on November 26th. There is a split within the Fed regarding inflation and interest - rate policies [2].

需采购为主，现货升水上涨；海外LME库存亦呈现增长。预计镍价震荡弱势运行。技术面，持仓增量价格 下跌，空头氛围升温，关注11.7关口争夺。观点参考：预计短线沪镍震荡偏弱，关注MA5压力。 免责声明 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 116750 | -330 12-01月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | 0 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14880 | -75 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 107341 | -4908 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -34387 | -2282 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 252090 | 120 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 40573 | 3386 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13992 | 108 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 3582 ...

沪锡产业日报 2025-11-17 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 290360 | -1090 12月-1月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -560 | -110 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 36860 | -205 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 31904 | -4437 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -636 | 305 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3065 | 10 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6258 | 266 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 115 | 25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6099 | 167 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 289900 | -2200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 290090 | -2950 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities maintained a volatile trend, with industrial products fluctuating and agricultural products rebounding from lows. The cooling of the US labor market and the resurgence of interest - rate cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, stimulating market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the continued slowdown of the domestic economy and the weakening of both domestic and external demand restricted the rebound space of industrial products [3]. - Multiple private - sector data in the US, such as ADP and Revelio Labs, show that US employment growth has slowed down, which may support the Fed's further easing policies. The end of the US government shutdown shifted market focus to economic data performance [3]. - In October, the domestic macro - economy continued the trend of weakening from the third - quarter. To ensure stable economic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and to start the "15th Five - Year Plan" smoothly, it is necessary to strengthen policies by the end of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption potential, and expanding effective investment [3]. - Due to the mixed macro - factors, commodities are likely to maintain a volatile trend. Geopolitical factors, such as the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict, potential conflicts in Venezuela, and the uncertainty of OPEC+ production policies, will continue to disrupt the commodity, especially the crude - oil market [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Situation Analysis - **Employment Data**: ADP and Revelio Labs data indicate that US employment growth has slowed down. In November, ADP employment increased by 10,400, with a significant slowdown compared to previous months. Revelio Labs data also shows a similar trend, with 9,100 new jobs in October and 50,300 in November [3][7]. - **Government Shutdown and Policy**: The US government ended a 43 - day shutdown. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at plans to exempt tariffs on coffee, bananas and other foods and a possible $2,000 tax - refund plan for families with an annual income of less than $100,000 [3]. - **Inflation and Trade Data**: From the inflation and trade data trends, the US CPI and core CPI trends, as well as fiscal revenue from tariffs and trade balance data, reflect the complex situation of the US economy [9][13]. - **OPEC+ Outlook**: OPEC predicts a slight oversupply of global oil in 2026. OPEC+ production policies and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast also have an impact on the oil market. The current price of WTI crude oil is $62.57, a 4% decline from $58.49 [3][18]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Investment and Consumption**: From January to October, real - estate development investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.1% and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 6.2%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods, retail sales of goods, and catering revenue were 2.9%, 2.7%, and 3.0% respectively [21][22]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 sent a clear signal of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". The policy aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary environment, accurately guide credit resource allocation, and balance economic growth, internal - external equilibrium, and risk prevention [3]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, slightly higher than the previous value of 8.2%. In October, the PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [25][27]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 14, the operating rates of PTA, POY, and polyester in the polyester industry chain were 74.5%, 89.0%, and 75.0% respectively. The national blast - furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the blast - furnace operating rate in Tangshan also showed different trends [29][30]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: In November, the year - on - year growth rates of automobile manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were 19% and 4% respectively. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 41.5 million, and in November, the sales volume was 1,967,100, a 7% increase [39]. - **Agricultural Product Price Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and 6 key - monitored fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index, showed different price trends [40][41].