长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KYXI 来源：雪球 巴菲特1998年曾有一段非常知名的表述 ， 他说 ： " 黄金从非洲和其他地方的地底下挖出来 。 之后人们将 其熔化成型 、 打孔 ， 然后又放到地底下的金库里 ， 还要花钱找人在金库四周保护 。 黄金没有任何用途 。 要是金星人看到地球人这么看重黄金 ， 想破头也想不明白 " 。 " 你可以把所有开采出来的黄金放在一起 ， 它们可以填满一个长宽高都为67英尺的立方空间 。 按照当前 的黄金价格计算 （ 当时黄金已到每盎司1350美元上方 ） ， 和这些黄金价值相当的钱可以让你买下全部美 国耕地 ， 不是部分 ， 而是全部 。 此外 ， 你可以买下10家埃克森美孚 。 然后你还有1万亿美元的闲钱 。 或者 ， 你可以拥有一个巨大的金属立方体 。 你会选择哪种做法 ？ 哪种做法能产生更多价值 ？ " 此后的多次股东大会上 ， 他也曾明确表达过 远离黄金 的建议 。 因为在他看来 ， 黄金没有生产能力 ， 不能用已有的黄金生出更多的黄金 ； 黄金的实际用途不多 ， 只在工业和珠宝饰品领 ...

以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ，作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗，对机构更专业，努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 这个星期，相比于A股，我想另一个资产应该引起了更大的关注， 它就是年内涨幅一度快到30%的资产——黄 金。 隔岸的大嘴，原本想"make America great again"，最后搞成了"make Au great again"。尤其是前几天，每天 两三个点的涨幅，确实是简直了…… 然而，这个世界总是被反者道之动的规律所支配。任何一个风险资产的表现不会永远顺滑的，也没有一个风险 资产会只涨不跌的。偶然中蕴含着必然，尽管今天黄金的大跌与trump的态度缓和有很大关系，但其次这一次 大跌，也恰恰是发生一系列指标进入极值以后…… 图：当日沪金指数的分时走势 数据来源：Wind 最近的黄金有多疯狂呢？我们一起来跟踪两组数据。 首先，国际金价的乖离率又一次进入了历史极值区域。 所谓乖离率，指的是一个资产价格相对某根均线的偏离 程度，对于前天收盘的国际金价，它相对于20天均线的乖离率已经达到了2 ...

天空才是尽头，黄金价格已经无敌了。投行们也都在喊加仓，高盛甚至将目标价喊出4500美元/盎司的极端价格， 特朗普也来凑热闹，发出"拥有黄金者制定规则"的逆天言论。 智通财经APP了解到，黄金现货价格按月持续飙升，3月突破3100美元/盎司，4月再度突破3400美元/盎司，按年呈 现加速上涨的态势，2023、2024以及2025年至今涨幅分别为13.7%、26.4%及32.9%。而受金价上涨影响，黄金板块 标的今年获得了大幅的市值溢价，其中港股赤峰黄金（06693）年内涨幅高达1.4倍。 其实黄金价格一直处于上升的趋势，以黄金作为非货币后长达超半个世纪周期看，黄金价格穿越了时间周期，而空 间高度则不断刷新高。 那么黄金为何能一直涨？ 从时间节点看，1971年为重要的分界线，美国关闭黄金兑换窗口，黄金非货币化，而布雷顿森林体系解体，黄金的 储备及投资价值飙升，此外参与者从国家到社会多样化也驱动了黄金投资的繁荣，其三大属性，包括抗通胀、避险 以及央行储备属性不断被放大，推动价格从37.44美元/盎司涨至如今的3500美元盎司。 | 特征/时期 | 黄金非货币化前(1971 年以前) | 黄金非货币化后(1971年以 ...

黄金将疯狂演绎到了极致，与此同时股汇债三杀终结了十余年美元资产牛市。 高盛、中金等机构预计2025年底金价可能达到3100美元/盎司，而一些更为乐观的预测认为可能会达到4042美元/盎司。 而仅用了四个多月，黄金就轻松突破了这一目标价格。国际金价从年初的2620美元/盎司涨至当前的3490.1美元/盎司，累计涨幅接近30%。 | | | | | 各机构对黄金的预测(美元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 树 构 最新预测 | | | | | 居 根 人 崩 4000 | | | | | 高 月 3700 | | | | | | 漫 第 年 行 3600 | | | | | 3500 | | | | | | 瑞 花友 | | | | | | 格 | | | | | | 観 開 नि | | | | | | 3500 3500 | | | | | @期货小褚根据最新数据整理 黄金会涨成普通人难以企及的"避险投资品"吗？还是十年牛市最后的疯狂？还能上车吗？这轮疯涨背后的推手到底是谁？ 搜狐号财经投向预言家栏目推出【十问黄金分析师】系列专栏，本期首篇邀请@期货小褚（ ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 避险情绪助推，金价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，国际金价站上3250美 元/盎司，再创历史新高，银价在大幅下挫后上周也强势 反弹站上32美元/盎司上方。上周四特朗普对于超过175个 国家暂缓90天征收对等关税政策，但市场对全球贸易量萎 缩的担忧加剧。美元指数持续大幅下挫，提振贵金属价格 走势。 ⚫ 最新公布的美国3月CPI、PPI数据都低于市场预期，显示 短期通胀压力缓解。但市场预计关税政策可能在未来推高 通胀， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in gold prices and the significant inflow of funds into gold ETFs, driven by global risk aversion and expectations regarding U.S. tariffs, with many ETFs showing over 22% returns year-to-date [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price and ETF Performance - As of April 11, the spot price of gold in London reached a record high of $3,220.12 per ounce, with the Shanghai gold futures contract rising by 2.71% and a weekly increase exceeding 5% [3]. - The World Gold Council reported that in Q1 2025, global physical gold ETF net inflows reached 226 tons, valued at $21 billion, marking the highest quarterly inflow in nearly three years [3]. - The total estimated scale of 14 gold ETFs in the market is approximately 121.6 billion yuan, showing significant growth since the beginning of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Growth - Several smaller gold ETFs have experienced explosive growth, with some seeing their shares increase by over 100% year-to-date, such as the Jianxin Shanghai Gold ETF (161.31% increase) and the Bank of China Shanghai Gold ETF (148.02% increase) [4]. - Four gold ETFs have surpassed the 10 billion yuan scale, with the Huaan Gold ETF leading at 49.46 billion yuan, accounting for a significant market share [3]. Group 3: Premium Risks and Investor Caution - The rising gold prices have led to high premium risks for several gold funds, with some trading prices significantly exceeding their net asset values [6][7]. - Fund managers have warned investors about the dangers of blindly chasing high premiums, which could lead to substantial losses if market sentiment reverses [6][7]. - It is advised that ordinary investors closely monitor premium levels and policy trends when allocating gold assets through ETFs, and consider medium to long-term holding strategies to mitigate risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. CPI inflation data, which fell below market expectations, indicating a potential upcoming "secondary inflation" due to tariff impacts and persistent supply-side pressures [1][4][14]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.4%, while the core CPI fell to 2.8%, both lower than market expectations [1][4]. - Energy prices have sharply declined, significantly contributing to the unexpected drop in inflation, with gasoline prices falling by 6.3% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year [7][10]. - Optional consumption is shrinking, with second-hand car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month, marking the first decline since September 2024 [10]. - Despite the decline in certain sectors, supply-side pressures from housing, labor, and food (notably eggs) remain unchanged, suggesting persistent inflationary support [11][14]. Inflation Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation may rebound above 3% by mid-year due to the delayed effects of tariffs [14][16]. - The labor market remains robust, with certain sectors experiencing high inflation despite overall economic weakness, indicating limited room for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16] . Strategy Recommendations - The article advises caution in going long on long-term U.S. Treasuries and suggests shorting the dollar at higher levels [4][18]. - Current U.S. Treasury yields present some attractiveness for long positions, but market stability should be monitored before entering [18]. - The dollar has seen a significant decline, with the index dropping 1.9% to 100.983, indicating potential opportunities for shorting the currency [17][18].

Group 1 - The core attributes of gold include its role as a safe haven during economic downturns, its ability to hedge against inflation, and its status as an international hard currency [2][3][4] Group 2 - Predictions for gold's performance in 2025 suggest potential volatility influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, and competition from digital currencies like Bitcoin [5] Group 3 - Various investment methods for gold include physical gold, gold ETFs, gold futures, and stocks of gold mining companies, each catering to different investor preferences and risk appetites [6][7][8][9] Group 4 - Key investment principles for ordinary investors emphasize diversification, a long-term perspective, cost awareness, and maintaining a rational mindset amidst price fluctuations [10][11][12][13] Group 5 - Future developments for gold may include a focus on environmental sustainability, increased demand in technology sectors, and a potential resurgence in its role within the international monetary system [15]

Market Overview - COMEX gold reached $3064.7 per ounce, up 0.25% from the previous trading day, hitting a historical high [1] - London gold spot price also set a record at $3061.9 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook reported gold jewelry prices at 921 RMB per gram, with a daily increase of 3 RMB per gram [1] Institutional Predictions and Core Logic - Goldman Sachs predicts that Asian central banks will continue to increase gold holdings over the next 3-6 years, with monthly purchases expected to reach 70 tons by 2025, a 40% increase from previous forecasts [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates twice this year has risen to 65%, which will enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [1] - Geopolitical risks, including uncertainties from Trump's tariff policies and Middle Eastern tensions, have led to a 12.6-ton increase in global gold ETF holdings in March [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its end-2025 gold price target to $3300 per ounce, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching $4200 due to central bank purchases and ETF inflows [1] - Other institutions like Zheshang Securities and Zhongzheng Pengyuan also provided optimistic price forecasts, indicating strong support from geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [1] Key Signals and Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to gradually build positions through gold ETFs or bank accumulation gold, utilizing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks [1] - Short-term traders should monitor the resistance range of $3050-$3100; a breakout could lead to targets around $3150, while a drop below $3000 may trigger selling [1] - Technical indicators suggest potential short-term pullbacks, with the RSI showing overbought conditions [1] - Policy risks include potential delays in Federal Reserve rate cuts or peace agreements in Ukraine, which could reverse market sentiment [1] Market Outlook and Asset Allocation - Optimistic scenario (30% probability): Escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected Fed rate cuts could push gold prices above $3300, benefiting gold stocks [2] - Neutral scenario (50% probability): Prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels, suitable for options strategies to capture volatility [2] - Pessimistic scenario (20% probability): A stronger-than-expected global economic recovery could lead to a drop in gold prices below $2800 [2] - Conservative investors are recommended to allocate 10%-15% to gold ETFs or physical gold to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [2] - Aggressive investors may consider a 20%-25% allocation to gold futures and mining stocks, using leverage while controlling total exposure to 30% of their capital [2]

Group 1 - Li Ka-shing's company, CK Hutchison, announced the sale of its global port assets to a consortium led by BlackRock, covering 43 ports across 23 countries, including a 90% stake in the Panama Port Company [4] - The Hong Kong Chief Executive, John Lee, emphasized the importance of providing a fair environment for local businesses and stated that any transaction must comply with legal regulations [4] - The sale has sparked criticism, with some commentators suggesting it reflects a lack of national loyalty among Hong Kong businessmen [5] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group reported a record revenue of 365.9 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, marking a 35% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 23.6 billion RMB, up 34.9% [9][11] - The fourth quarter revenue reached 109 billion RMB, a significant 48.8% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising by 69.4% to 8.3 billion RMB [14] - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business showed strong performance, delivering 136,854 units in 2024, with a revenue contribution of 32.8 billion RMB [15] Group 3 - Gold prices surged, breaking the 3,030 USD per ounce mark, driven by inflation concerns and increased investment demand [19][20] - The domestic gold market also saw significant activity, with A-share gold stocks rising by 4.67% in a single day, reflecting strong market sentiment [20] - Analysts attribute the rising gold prices to ongoing inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and changing expectations for global economic growth [20] Group 4 - Some banks in China have reduced consumer loan rates to as low as 2.49%, indicating a downward trend in personal loan interest rates [22] - The competitive landscape for consumer loans has intensified, with several banks offering promotional rates and incentives to attract borrowers [22] - Regulatory encouragement for banks to increase personal loan offerings is expected to create new growth opportunities while emphasizing the need for effective risk management [22]