Group 1 - Investors are reassessing the significant market rally from last Friday, as Jerome Powell did not make any new strong commitments [1] - The market experienced a "risk appetite frenzy" last Friday, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising approximately 1.75%, while small-cap stocks surged nearly 4% [3] - By Monday, the market sentiment shifted from excitement to hesitation, leading to declines in major indices, with the Dow dropping 350 points (0.8%) and the S&P 500 down 28 points (0.4%) [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing a divide, with some officials ready to cut rates in response to economic weakness, while others remain unconvinced [5] - Despite signs of a weakening job market, inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, indicating that the battle against inflation is far from over [5][6] Group 3 - Market focus has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates in September to how aggressive the Fed will be in the coming months, with expectations now leaning towards a symbolic 25 basis point cut [6] - The change in rate cut expectations suggests that investors will likely adjust stock valuations downward until a clearer market direction is established [6]

Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold ETF Growth - The scale of domestic gold ETFs and linked funds reached 260.34 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.73%, surpassing the 300 billion yuan threshold [5] - Significant net inflows into gold ETFs were observed in the first half of the year, with several funds doubling in size, such as the Jiashi Shanghai Gold ETF, which saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 201.35% [5] - The average return of gold funds in the first half of the year was 23.01%, with the highest reaching 24.14%, attracting continuous investor interest [5] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases totaled 166 tons in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, maintaining a historically high level despite a slowdown in growth [5] - China has been a major contributor, increasing its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, with a July addition of 6,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons), bringing its total to 2,300.41 tons [5] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of monetary policy shifts, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are driving central banks to diversify their reserves by increasing gold holdings [5] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, have heightened risk aversion, supporting gold prices as a safe-haven asset [9] - Inflation expectations are rising, with the U.S. five-year inflation swap rates increasing, making gold an attractive hedge against inflation [9] - Despite a strengthening U.S. dollar, gold prices still managed a 0.3% increase, indicating gold's role as a hedge against declining confidence in fiat currencies [9] Group 4: Market Outlook and Trends - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue growing, particularly in the context of geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [12] - The dual support from gold ETF growth and central bank purchases reflects a strong market demand for gold, with expectations of sustained investment interest [12] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, especially amid global economic changes and shifts in monetary systems [12]

Core Insights - The long-term outlook for diamond prices remains positive, with expectations of steady growth due to limited natural diamond reserves [2][3]. Industry Overview - Natural diamond rough prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 3% for finished diamonds over the past 35 years [2]. - Despite a decline in global diamond prices and sales over the past two years, this is seen as a relative decrease following a significant price surge of 40% between 2021 and 2022 [3]. - The current high inventory levels in the Indian cutting industry and increased financing costs have contributed to the recent price corrections [3]. Market Dynamics - The annual production of diamonds has been declining, from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an expected 110 million carats by 2024, due to depleting reserves and a lack of new large discoveries [3]. - Investment-grade diamonds, particularly those weighing over 5 carats, are less affected by price declines and are considered attractive to potential investors [5]. Future Projections - The diamond price index is projected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth anticipated after 2027 [5]. - China, as the largest jewelry market, currently has a low share of diamond jewelry sales at 9%, compared to 60% in the United States, indicating potential for growth [5]. - A significant increase in diamond imports is expected in 2025, with a projected 93.8% year-on-year increase in weight and a 43.5% increase in total import value [5].

华源期货：黄金中长期或将延续强势格局 黄金中长期或将延续强势格局品种展望：今日沪金主力合约2510延续近几日反弹上行态势，最终收于787.8，涨幅 0.56%，从走势看短期反弹动能保持强劲。从驱动因素看，地缘冲突持续，俄乌冲突陷入僵局，加沙停火谈判近乎破 裂，避险情绪存一定支撑，此外，7月非农就业数据大幅弱于预期，加强美联储下半年降息预期，美元走弱，支撑贵 金属价格。 综合来看，短期黄金在"降息预期升温"与"地缘不确定性"的支撑下企稳反弹，在欧美降息周期开启、全球去美元 化、地缘贸易冲突仍存的大背景下，黄金抗通胀和避险属性凸显，全球央行持续大规模购金，中长期黄金或将延续 强势格局。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of rationally viewing gold price fluctuations and strategically timing investments in gold [1][11] Price Fluctuation Analysis - On August 7, the price of gold in China was reported at 779.21 yuan per gram, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan, which translates to a drop of 0.001% [1] - A price difference of 10 yuan per gram can result in a significant opportunity cost, exemplified by a potential saving of 4,500 yuan for a consumer who delayed a purchase due to price changes [2] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices in China primarily follow international gold price trends, which are influenced by various factors including fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, geopolitical events, central bank interest rate policies, and global financial market volatility [5] - The high purity of investment-grade gold (AU9999) makes its price highly sensitive to market changes [5] Current Market Conditions - As of August 7, gold prices fluctuated between 776.78 yuan and 780.20 yuan per gram, indicating a relatively stable market without significant price movements [6] - This "platform period" allows investors to reflect on their investment strategies without the pressure of drastic price changes [6] Investment Strategy Considerations - Certain groups should be cautious about entering the gold market during the current conditions, including long-term investors seeking asset preservation, individuals with upcoming wedding or gifting needs, and short-term speculative investors [6] - Investors should consider recent international gold price trends, the US dollar index, domestic holiday demand, and their own financial planning before making investment decisions [8][9][10] Rational Investment Approach - For ordinary investors, gold remains a relatively safe asset, but investment success relies more on timing than on the quantity purchased [11] - Clarifying investment objectives—whether for preservation, collection, or speculation—can help maintain rationality amidst price fluctuations [11]

Core Insights - Spot gold prices reached $3,380 per ounce on August 7, with a daily increase of 0.33% [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a 0.1% increase, with a real-time transaction volume exceeding 2.7 million [2] - The ETF's latest scale is 1.47 billion yuan, with a total of 18.9 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.4 million shares and a change rate of 153.19% [2] - The ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to industry averages, supporting T+0 trading [2] - Current focus in the precious metals market is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with several officials open to a shift towards easing monetary policy, providing strong support for gold prices [2] - The precious metals market may experience high-level fluctuations due to weakening tariff disturbances, with core issues revolving around U.S. economic data and policy paths [3] - Rising inflation expectations due to global tariffs may support precious metals if CPI data confirms accelerated cost transmission [3] - Long-term, the value of precious metals remains intact due to U.S. debt risks and the de-dollarization process, providing solid support for precious metals [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **gold investment sector**, highlighting its current valuation and future potential amidst macroeconomic changes [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Indicators**: The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, exceeding expectations, which has influenced market perceptions regarding inflation resilience and interest rate cuts [2][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuations for gold companies are around 15-18 times earnings, with future expectations at 10-12 times, indicating reasonable pricing but necessitating caution regarding risk factors [1][4][5]. - **Performance of Gold Companies**: Companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold reported mid-year results that met or exceeded expectations, suggesting a strong safety margin for gold investments [1][5]. - **Market Trends**: The gold market is expected to experience significant volatility from late 2025 to early 2026, with potential price movements above $3,500 per ounce, driven by both individual and institutional buying [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Phase**: The gold investment sector is currently in a "lagging" phase, having transitioned from a "leading" phase where stock valuations were high but earnings underperformed [4][6]. - **Central Bank Purchases**: Global central banks have purchased over 100 tons of gold in the past three years, with increased buying driven by geopolitical tensions and a focus on monetary stability [8]. - **ETF Inflows**: The decline in opportunity costs and the attractiveness of gold as a non-debt asset are expected to lead to increased inflows into gold ETFs, further supporting gold prices [2][8]. - **Future Price Predictions**: There is a consensus that gold prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce, as various market forces align [9]. Conclusion - The current environment presents a compelling case for gold investment, with strong fundamentals and macroeconomic indicators supporting potential price increases in the near future [1][2][9].

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on commodities such as copper and gold, anticipating that inflation in the U.S. may enter a sustained upward trajectory, despite limited recession risks in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - The U.S. job market is expected to continue a trend of moderate slowdown, with recession risks currently deemed limited. Recent non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, and significant downward revisions for May and June have catalyzed market adjustments regarding economic outlook [1][12]. - The unemployment rate remains stable, and wage growth has exceeded expectations, indicating that the slowdown in the job market may be mild [1][12]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July showed a decline, primarily due to a significant drop in supplier delivery times, while new orders and production indicators showed marginal improvement, suggesting that supply chain normalization rather than a sharp decline in demand may be at play [1][17]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Inflation trends are likely to play a crucial role in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations that U.S. inflation may enter a phase of sustained upward surprises [2][18]. - Recent data indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation has been weaker than anticipated, but as tariff rates become clearer, the pass-through to consumers may accelerate, increasing the likelihood of inflation exceeding expectations [2][18]. Group 3: Commodity and Asset Allocation Strategy - The report reiterates a positive stance on inflation-hedged commodities, including copper, oil, and gold, in light of resilient U.S. economic conditions and potential inflation surprises [3][18]. - The performance of the asset allocation strategy for July yielded a return of 0.6%, with a one-year return of 9.4% and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%, indicating robust overall performance [4][35]. - The macro scoring model indicates a bullish outlook for A-shares, crude oil, and copper, while suggesting caution regarding domestic bonds due to potential tightening liquidity risks [19][21]. Group 4: Specific Asset Insights - The report maintains a neutral view on U.S. equities, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the negative effects of tariffs, which may become a focal point in future trading [23]. - The gold market faces short-term constraints due to a reduction in U.S. deficits and slowing central bank purchases, but the medium-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated inflationary pressures [24]. - The crude oil outlook is favorable, with the oil sentiment index rising to 0.61, driven by reduced macro risks and increased inflation expectations [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by the better - than - expected US economy, the hawkish stance of the FOMC, and tariff developments. The dollar index is approaching 100, US bond yields are rising, and the stock and commodity markets are experiencing adjustments [2]. - In the domestic market, after the Politburo meeting and the Sino - US negotiations did not exceed expectations, the market risk preference declined. The stock market style shifted to high - dividend stocks, the commodity market sentiment cooled, and the bond market rebounded [3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Precious metals are under pressure, copper shows a mixed trend, aluminum is oscillating, and other commodities also present various price movements based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The July statement downgraded the economic growth assessment, and Powell's hawkish remarks emphasized inflation control. The market reduced the expected number of rate cuts this year to 1 time, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped to 41%. The US Q2 GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rebounded to 3.0%, better than the expected 2.4%. Trump announced a series of tariff measures starting from August 1st, which affected market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing the consolidation of the economic recovery momentum. The market risk preference declined, and the stock, commodity, and bond markets showed corresponding adjustments [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to correct. COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce. Powell's hawkish remarks and strong economic data led to a delay in the market's expectation of the first rate cut this year, putting pressure on the prices of gold and silver. Short - term precious metals are expected to remain weak [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - Trump's tariff on imported semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivatives (excluding refined copper) caused the US copper price to plunge nearly 20%. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell remained cautious, slightly dampening market sentiment. In the industry, the second - stage pumping work at the Kamoa mine is progressing actively. It is expected that Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Fed maintained interest rates stable, and strong US economic data did not support rate - cut expectations. The domestic meeting indicated that macro - policies will maintain a growth - stabilizing orientation in the second half of the year. The aluminum market has no clear direction, and aluminum prices are expected to remain oscillating [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina spot market is structurally tight, with low delivery inventory. Supported by news of domestic delivery requirements and overseas supply disruptions, alumina is expected to maintain a relatively positive oscillating trend [10]. 3.6 Zinc - US economic data was strong, the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the dollar strengthened. The fundamental situation of zinc remained weak, with an expected increase in refined zinc production in August and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - The reduction and resumption of production co - exist in primary and secondary lead smelters. The transportation of raw materials and products in Ningxia is affected. The supply tension has eased, and the terminal demand is differentiated. Lead prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - Strong US economic data and the Fed's unchanged interest rates led to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on tin prices. The tin market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with weak supply and demand in China. Tin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, waiting for the guidance of the US July non - farm payroll data [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is firm. The supply is contracting, and the demand shows a mixed situation. The futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Policy expectations dominate the price direction. Overseas lithium ore supply is stable and abundant, and the demand is stable. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - Tariff disturbances continue, and the macro - level is still volatile. The shortage of nickel ore has eased, but the ore price has not significantly declined. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up oil prices, but the OPEC + may increase production in September, and the fundamentals may gradually become looser. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.13 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability. The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak production and sales pattern, and supply is expected to contract in mid - August. Steel futures prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot market trading is average, and the market sentiment is weakly stable. The port inventory has decreased this week, and the supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [24]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the Sino - US negotiation results may weaken the export demand for new - season US soybeans. The domestic soybean procurement is insufficient in the long - term, and the supply is loose in the short - term. Rapeseed meal rebounds strongly, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The US employment data is strong, and the dollar index rises. The import of rapeseed is expected to decline, and rapeseed oil inventory decreases, leading to a compensatory rebound. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [27].

需要注意的是，黄金在避险与抗通胀双重角色之间频繁切换。当贸易协议有所进展，避险情绪降温，价 格往往承压；但一旦政策前景或经济预期出现松动，黄金便迅速获得资金关注。因此，当前的上涨是否 能持续，关键还在于美联储声明中是否透露出比预期更温和的政策基调。 不少交易者也在密切观察全球央行的黄金储备动向，近期部分新兴经济体央行持续购金，为金价提供了 中长期支撑。从结构性资金流角度看，ETF资金净流入是否恢复，也是判断金价能否走出反弹行情的重 要依据。 DLSM外汇认为金价本轮上涨更多地反映了市场对政策不确定性的前瞻性反应，而非单一事件驱动。在 美联储正式释放信号前，价格波动仍将频繁。对投资者而言，保持灵活、注重风险控制，或是当前贵金 属市场操作的核心要义。毕竟，这波反弹究竟是转势的前奏，还是昙花一现的技术修复，仍待观察更具 分量的消息落地之后才能真正定调。 投资者对即将出炉的美联储政策会议结果保持高度关注。尽管市场普遍预期本次会议将按兵不动，但焦 点早已从利率水平本身，转向美联储对未来利率路径的表态。如果决策者对通胀回落和就业增长持 更"鸽派"的看法，不排除年底前启动降息的可能性。这一预期构成了金价反弹的重要支撑。 从 ...