高债务上限，美元美债信用中长期面临挑战，债务问题趋于持久化。当前市场静待美联储FOMC议息会议， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 多空博弈加剧，鲍威尔释放鹰派"抗通胀"信号或使金价再度承压，当前经济数据放缓支持美联储释放鸽 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | | | 派信号，但关税潜在的通胀上行风险为主要变量。中长期来看，特朗普关税反复预期、美国双赤字问题及 免责声明 贵金属产业日报 2025-06-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 785.42 | 0.34 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9045 | 181 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 162421 | -6514 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 445981 | 36929 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 145829 | -294 沪银主 ...

Group 1 - The likelihood of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announcing a rate cut after this week's policy meeting is very low, following the pattern of his three predecessors [1] - Powell's term will end in May next year, and he aims to maintain his anti-inflation credibility and political independence as he concludes his tenure [1] - Recent data shows both inflation and the economy are cooling, with political pressure from the Trump administration being a key factor affecting the Fed's actions [1] Group 2 - The market expects the Fed to maintain stable rates in June and July, but may revise economic and rate forecasts this week [2] - Investors are keen to find clues that could lead to the next rate cut, especially given the overall health of the U.S. economy despite a slow cooling [2] - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index has averaged a 16% increase in the last 12 months of the previous three Fed chairmen's terms [2]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.609, with a slight increase of 0.20% from the opening price of 8.584 per gram [1] - The highest price reached today is 8.609 per gram, while the lowest was 8.540 per gram, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver [1] Group 2 - Nicholas Colas believes that the probability of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announcing a rate cut after this week's policy meeting is extremely low, similar to the patterns observed with his predecessors [2] - Colas emphasizes that Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish tone as he approaches the end of his term in May next year, aiming to preserve his anti-inflation credibility and political independence [2] - Recent data indicates a cooling trend in both inflation and the economy, while Powell faces political pressure from the Trump administration [2] - The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2025 [2] - Colas warns that every statement and silence from Powell after the meeting should be interpreted through the lens of maintaining the Fed's political independence [2] Group 3 - The key support zone for silver is identified between 8.300 and 8.390 per gram; if this zone is breached, further downward pressure may occur [2] - A dynamic support level to watch is at 8.310 per gram, while the current resistance zone is between 8.600 and 8.690 per gram [2] - A successful breakout above the resistance zone could lead to testing the critical level of 8.700 per gram in the future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy is showing signs of weakness, prompting the Bank of England to face new considerations for interest rate cuts amid tax increases and US trade policies [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators suggest a reduction in inflationary pressures, allowing room for policy adjustments. Although the inflation rate was unexpectedly revised to 3.4% last month, the Bank of England maintains its forecast that inflation will return to the 2% target by 2027 [4]. - The labor market data has become a critical driver for policy shifts, with May employment numbers showing the largest monthly decline in five years, resulting in a loss of over 250,000 jobs since the announcement of increased employer wage taxes and minimum wage standards [4][7]. Policy Implications - The £26 billion wage tax increase policy implemented by Chancellor Reeves is showing effects, leading to widespread layoffs and salary reductions, which diminishes the Bank of England's concerns about a wage-price spiral [7]. - Economic growth is also showing signs of fatigue, with GDP data indicating the largest monthly contraction in a year and a half, attributed to the impact of tax measures and tariffs [7]. Internal Policy Dynamics - There is a noticeable division within the Bank of England regarding policy direction. Hawkish members may continue to oppose rate cuts, while the Deputy Governor may lean towards a dovish stance. Market expectations reflect an 80% probability of a rate cut in August, up from 40% at the beginning of the month [4][8]. - The upcoming monetary policy meeting is seen as a critical turning point for the UK economy, with the potential for a shift from anti-inflation measures to recession prevention strategies [8]. Market Reactions - The bond market has already begun to reflect this dovish sentiment, with two-year UK bond yields declining by 14 basis points to 3.88%, leading among major developed markets [7].

Central Bank Gold Accumulation - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7,383 million ounces (approximately 2,296 tons) as of the end of May, marking a continuous increase for seven months [1][3] - The accumulation of gold is driven by concerns over the declining value of the US dollar, with US national debt exceeding $36 trillion, equating to about $100,000 per American [3] - China's gold reserves currently account for only 7% of its foreign exchange reserves, compared to a global average of 15%, prompting aggressive purchases [3] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Historical data shows that gold prices surged during past crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating a pattern of gold appreciation during times of uncertainty [4] Gold as a Wealth Preservation Tool - Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation, with its price increasing significantly since the US dollar was decoupled from gold in 1971 [6] - The recommendation for ordinary households is to allocate 10%-20% of their assets to gold to preserve wealth without compromising living standards [8] Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have recently surged by 9%, with current spot prices exceeding $36 per ounce, reaching a 13-year high [1][11] - The industrial demand for silver is expected to grow, particularly in sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles, which could further drive prices [13] Investment Strategies - For gold investment, options include physical gold, gold ETFs, and systematic investment plans, with a caution against high-risk strategies like futures trading [12][14] - For silver, it is advised to limit exposure to 5% of assets due to its volatility and potential risks associated with economic downturns [12][14]

#图文打卡计划# 尊敬的审阅人员和品鉴读者：本文是经过严格查阅相关权威文献和资料。 全文数据有据可依，可供查证。 你有没有发现，最近金价疯涨得有点过分？真的，金子这玩意儿，前两天还被我们视为稳妥的保值资产，现在居然也开始失控了。 可问题是，金价这波上涨到底是怎么回事？如果说它只是受一些短期因素的影响，那倒也可以理解，可是怎么就突然失控了呢？ 我们得看一下这波金价上涨的背后原因。自今年初以来，全球经济形势一直摇摆不定，尤其是美国通胀压力巨大、美元疲软。美元的贬值通常意味着黄金作 为避险资产的需求增加。加之全球政治局势紧张，尤其是中东和俄乌冲突加剧，导致投资者纷纷转向黄金避险。各大银行和投资机构也在纷纷调整策略，将 更多资金配置到黄金资产上。这就让黄金的市场需求激增，从而推高了价格。 话说回来，这也有点像大家都疯抢某个限量款的商品，结果把价格炒高了。再者，这波上涨的背后，炒作因素也不少。特别是有些商家和博主，他们在利用 市场的情绪波动制造一些不切实际的预期，以此吸引关注和流量。就像我看到的那个博主，他那种预言，真是为了博眼球、吸引眼球，毫无任何实质内容。 说金价会跌到300，简直就是给投资者带来错误的信号。 有些 ...

Core Insights - Gold has officially surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, driven by a surge in gold purchases and rising prices [1] - In 2024, gold is projected to account for 20% of global official reserves, exceeding the euro's 16%, while the dollar remains dominant at 46% [1] - Central banks are increasing gold holdings at a record pace, with net purchases expected to exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, doubling the average levels of the 2010s [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank reports that the share of the dollar has decreased by 4 percentage points since 2020, while the euro's share has shrunk by 8 percentage points over the past five years [1] - Major buyers of gold include China, India, Turkey, and Poland, with China's central bank increasing its holdings by 289 tons, the highest since 2015 [1] - The global central bank gold reserves have rebounded to 3.6 million tons in 2024, nearing levels last seen in 1965, reflecting a strategic demand for non-sovereign credit assets [1] Group 2 - The shift in asset allocation is evident, with a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024, while developed country bonds face the largest sell-off since 2008 [2] - Investors are now viewing gold not just as an inflation hedge but as a core tool for geopolitical risk management, leading to a 25% year-on-year increase in gold ETF inflows in 2024, the highest in four years [2] - Gold prices surged by 30% in 2024, with further increases of 27% expected in the first half of 2025, reaching historical highs above $3,500 per ounce [2] Group 3 - Despite not generating interest and having high storage costs, gold's unique safe-haven properties make it the "ultimate currency" during crises [4] - The annual storage cost for gold held by global central banks is estimated at $8.7 billion, and the opportunity cost increases with rising interest rates [4] - The European Central Bank warns that gold's liquidity is only 1.2% of the global foreign exchange market, and an expansion of its reserve function could increase market volatility [4]

当地时间6月3日，美股三大股指震荡走高。英伟达大涨，再度成为全球市值最高的上市公司，热门中概 股多数上涨。 多位美联储官员当日就美国通胀前景发声，认为宣布抗通胀已取得胜利为时尚早。对于美联储即将在本 月召开的议息会议，市场普遍认为美联储将再度暂停降息。 美联储官员担忧通胀升温 美股上涨 Wind数据显示，截至收盘，美股道指、纳指、标普500指数分别上涨0.51%、0.81%、0.58%。 图片来源：Wi n d 万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.47%，英伟达以2.8%的涨幅领涨，公司总市值达到3.45万亿美元，超越 微软（3.44万亿美元）再度成为全球市值最高的上市公司。 | < w 52251.92 242.63 0.47% | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS | | | --- | --- | --- | | 资料 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 -- | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 141.220 | 2.80% | | NVDA.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 203.270 | 0.78% | | AAPL.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve official Bostic emphasized that there is still a long way to go in combating inflation, indicating that core price levels remain a concern [1][3] - Bostic expressed a cautious stance towards rapid interest rate cuts, stating that more progress in reducing inflation rates is needed before considering such actions [1][3] - The current best monetary policy approach is to remain patient, reflecting the central bank's careful assessment of the economic situation [3] Group 2 - Following Bostic's remarks, the stock market saw a significant rally, with major tech stocks leading the gains; Nvidia rose by 3%, Tesla increased by over 2%, and Apple gained 0.44% [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.6%, with many Chinese concept stocks also showing positive performance, including gains of over 2% for companies like Xunlei and NIO [3] - The charging station, solid-state battery, and photovoltaic sectors experienced substantial increases, with Li Auto's stock rising over 6% after announcing the expansion of its supercharging stations [3]

美联储博斯蒂克：尚未宣布抗通胀已获胜。 ...