Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal will experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. Coking coal will face stricter safety inspections [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On June 10, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 1417228 lots and an open interest of 567843 lots, an increase of 10312 lots. The closing price of J2509 was 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.75%, with a trading volume of 31312 lots and an open interest of 54018 lots, an increase of 255 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Various spot prices of coking coal and coke remained mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few varieties. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Peak Downs coal converted to RMB decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 decreased, while the spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 increased [2]. Price and Position Information - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: On June 10, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal at northern ports were as follows: 1290 yuan/ton for Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port, 1205 yuan/ton for Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, 1205 yuan/ton at Lianyungang Port, 1110 yuan/ton at Rizhao Port, and 1195 yuan/ton at Tianjin Port [2]. - **Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index on June 10**: S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 970 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 838 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 849 yuan [3][4]. - **Position Information**: On June 10, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 19885 lots and short positions decreased by 3681 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions increased by 693 lots and short positions increased by 351 lots [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1 [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: June 6, 2025 [1] - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated weakly, with total positions decreasing by 321 lots. The game between long and short positions remained intense, and the spot price center continued to move down. Electric carbon dropped by 50 to 60,200, and the price of Australian lithium ore dropped by 2.5 to $607.5 per ton. The price of lithium mica ore remained flat, and the price of cathode materials also decreased. The downward trend in the industry chain remained unchanged [8]. - This week, the weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons. Except for the decline in production at the recycling end, the production of carbonate lithium from other raw material ends increased, and the pressure on the supply side continued to exist. Whether the price of carbonate lithium can stop falling and rebound still depends on the strength of the demand side. In the short term, the futures price of carbonate lithium has not yet stabilized above the trend line and should still be treated with a weak perspective [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Rio Tinto is adjusting the cost of its lithium project in Serbia, which was identified as one of the 13 strategic new key material projects by the European Commission. The project was opposed by environmental groups and many Serbians due to environmental issues and led to large - scale street protests in 2022, resulting in the government revoking all of Rio Tinto's exploration licenses. The Constitutional Court overturned the decision last year and restored the licenses. The project was originally expected to start production in 2027, and the company still needs to obtain on - site mining licenses [9]. - Metal investor Cobalt Holdings will abandon its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange. The company did not disclose the specific reasons for canceling the plan. Sources revealed that the IPO process was aborted due to weak subscription demand, and the management still看好 the cobalt business model and market prospects and plans to explore alternative financing options such as private placement. The company's original plan to use most of the IPO proceeds (about $200 million) to purchase the first 6,000 tons of cobalt metal from Glencore has not been clearly determined whether to continue [9][10]. - According to the mineral and petroleum exploration data for the first quarter of 2025 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the national exploration activities decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The total exploration expenditure decreased by 18.4% (A$181 million) quarter - on - quarter to A$804.7 million, and the year - on - year decrease was 11.5% (A$105 million), a nearly 20% reduction from the quarterly peak in 2023 (over A$1 billion). Drilling activities also declined, with the new exploration drilling volume decreasing by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter and the total drilling meters decreasing by 11.6% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of rebar futures is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to potential supply - demand contradictions and lower cost centers [1]. - The iron ore 09 contract is viewed as oscillating in the near future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The coking coal market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand, coking enterprise profits, and imported coal supply [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and steel mill profit repair [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 140 (+4) [1]. - Last week, rebar apparent demand declined, production increased, and inventory depletion slowed. Demand is about to seasonally weaken, while steel mills have good profits and lack the willingness to cut production actively. The cost center of steel has shifted down due to falling raw material prices [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price is below the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly under the background of low valuation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures market was weak, affected by the decline in export heat and the slow decline of coal prices. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (-7), the Platts 62% index was 96.45 US dollars/ton (-1.2), and the monthly average was 99.50 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 76 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,913.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.94. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 243.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17 [1]. - There are more blast furnace overhauls recently, mainly in Hebei and Northeast China, and the overhaul time is long. The hot metal output may continue to decline, but the amplitude will not be large. The iron ore 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the near future [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in the main production areas maintain normal production, but some areas have phased production restrictions. The import volume at the Mongolian port remains low, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. With the increasing expectation of the second round of coke price cuts, the market risk - aversion sentiment intensifies, and the enthusiasm of coal washing enterprises for starting work is limited [3]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply - demand contradictions, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products, the profit repair of coking enterprises, and the change of imported coal supply [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, coking enterprises in the main production areas maintain a normal production rhythm, and some areas limit production due to narrowed profit margins, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable [3]. - In terms of inventory, most coking enterprises maintain low - inventory operation, but some resources face sales pressure due to the slowdown of steel mill procurement. There is a bargaining space in the market due to quality differentiation [3]. - In terms of demand, the scope of blast furnace overhauls in steel mills has expanded, and the rigid demand has declined marginally. Steel mills maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and mainstream steel mills have initiated the second round of price cuts [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products and the profit repair of steel mills [3]. Industry News - From May 19th to May 25th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.1 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners is 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [4]. - In April 2025, except for a slight increase in the procurement cost of steam coal, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, among which the procurement costs of coking coal, pulverized coal injection, domestic iron concentrate, and imported lump ore decreased significantly [4]. - The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued an implementation plan, aiming to complete about 500,000 vehicle scrap and replacement updates and more than 8 million home appliance trade - ins in 2025 [4]. - Guangxi adjusted the deed tax rates for individuals purchasing first - and second - home properties [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, the overseas quotation continues to decline, and the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists. The arrival of goods at ports is expected to resume this week, the current downward trend of the futures market continues, the price is close to the phased bottom, and the previous short positions can be held. It is recommended to participate in the 7 - 9 reverse spread [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 27 compared to May 26, with declines of - 2.58%, - 1.27%, and - 0.82% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 also decreased, while the basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased. Most spot prices of different types of logs in ports remained stable, except for the 4A large radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by - 2.44%. The overseas quotes of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly from 7.170 to 7.187, and the import theoretical cost increased from 776.13 yuan to 777.89 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In April, the port shipment volume increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From February 16th to February 23rd, the total inventory of Chinese ports decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.59%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 1.11%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 1.70% [3] 3.5 Demand: - From February 16th to May 23rd, the daily average log出库 volume in China increased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 3% [3]

| 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2 26日 | 2555 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 763.5 | 777.5 | -14.0 | -1.80% | | | 原木2509 | 783.5 | 791.5 | -8.0 | -1.01% | | | 原木2511 | 789.5 | 795.5 | -6.0 | -0.75% | | | 7-9价差 | -20.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -4.0 | -2.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.0 | -18.0 | -8.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -13.5 | -27.5 | 14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -33.5 | -41.5 | 8.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -39.5 | -45.5 | 6.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 720.0 | 720. ...

2025 年 5 月 26 日 品 研 究 焦炭：累库延续，震荡偏弱 焦煤：累库延续，震荡偏弱 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 801.5 | -26 | -3.14% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1383 | -23.5 | -1.67% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 491253 | 521877 | 27491 | | | | J2509 | 25439 | 55648 | 940 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1230 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1230 | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦蝶 | | | | | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 970 | 970 | 0 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1651 | 1659 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 焦煤仓单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - This week, manganese - silicon futures prices rose due to South African manganese ore policies and union negotiation events but fell as Gemco Mine shipped its first batch of manganese ore since early 2024. Silicon - iron prices were volatile and weak due to the downward shift of raw material cost centers [3][42]. - The supply of silicon - iron decreased month - on - month, with significant production cuts in Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Gansu. The supply of manganese - silicon rebounded slightly month - on - month, and production in major producing areas was relatively stable [3][42]. - Silicon - iron inventory increased month - on - month, with obvious inventory accumulation in Inner Mongolia. Manganese - silicon inventory decreased month - on - ten - days, but Ningxia was still in the inventory accumulation state. The warehouse receipt inventory of both silicons declined from the high level [3][42]. - Blast furnace operation and hot metal production decreased month - on - month and may have peaked and declined. The seasonal performance of the demand side was better than last year [3][42]. - The cost center of silicon - iron continued to move down, while the cost center of manganese - silicon increased slightly, supporting the futures price of manganese - silicon. The cost side may loosen again after the arrival of low - cost manganese ore and Australian ore in June [3][42]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern of both silicons has tightened marginally recently, and a tight balance may occur at the end of the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the price changes of raw materials, the production rhythm of steel mills, the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, and the implementation of ore - end policies and strike events [4][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the silicon - iron 2507 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 5,512 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 192 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 732,879 lots and an open interest of 209,455 lots, a week - on - week change of - 18,731 lots. The manganese - silicon 2509 contract price rose and then fell, closing at 5,718 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 140 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 5495 lots and an open interest of 435,700 lots, a week - on - week change of 54,626 lots [2][9]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot prices of silicon - iron in major regions fluctuated. The quoted price of 75B silicon - iron in major producing areas was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 100 - 0 yuan/ton. The quoted price range of silicon - manganese in major regions was 5530 - 5880 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese was 5580 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi 6517 silicon - manganese was 5530 yuan/ton [11]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures - Spot Spread**: As of this week, the basis of the silicon - iron 2507 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron spot was - 112 yuan/ton, a change of 178 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of the manganese - silicon 2509 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was - 18 yuan/ton, a change of 226 yuan/ton from the previous week [14][15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of this week, the spread between silicon - iron 2407 - 2508 was 62 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between manganese - silicon 2507 - 2508 was - 16 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. - **Spread between the Two Silicons**: As of this week, the spot silicon - iron - manganese - silicon spread in Inner Mongolia was - 300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2507 was - 174 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2509 was - 206 yuan/ton, a change of - 52 yuan/ton from the previous week [17]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the output of silicon - iron was 88,900 tons, a month - on - month change of - 4600 tons, a change rate of - 4.9%. The weekly operating rate was 30.42%, a change of - 0.80 percentage points from the previous week. The output of manganese - silicon was 165,200 tons, a month - on - month change of 2500 tons, a change rate of 1.5%. The weekly operating rate was 34.18%, a change of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week [2][26]. 2.2 Demand - The actual output of downstream hot metal decreased month - on - month. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 91.32%, a change of - 0.44 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces was 2436,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 11,700 tons [2][30]. 2.3 Inventory - As of May 23, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises in the country was 75,170 tons, a month - on - half - month change of 1400 tons. The inventory of 63 silicon - manganese sample enterprises in the country was 201,100 tons, a month - on - half - month change of - 6000 tons [3][32]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the futures profit of the two silicons weakened month - on - month, while the spot profit rebounded month - on - month. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the futures profit of the silicon - iron main contract decreased to 17.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 147.5 yuan/ton; the futures profit of the manganese - silicon main contract was - 397.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 131 yuan/ton. The spot profit of silicon - iron was - 94.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 44.5 yuan/ton; the spot profit of manganese - silicon was - 415.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 95 yuan/ton [34][35]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the price of semi - coke, the main raw material cost of silicon - iron, decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton. The price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore in northern ports rose to 34.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The market price of Gabonese ore in Tianjin Port was 37.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/dry ton degree. The quoted price of Australian lumps rose to 41.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The price of rich manganese slag fell to 960 yuan/ton, the price of metallurgical coke decreased to 1163.7 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia chemical coke decreased by 55 yuan/ton month - on - month. The prices of manganese - silicon raw materials fluctuated, but the overall cost center increased, while the cost center of silicon - iron weakened relatively [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,683 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a gain of 0.02%. The overall market trading atmosphere was relatively stable. In the north, supply in Shandong and Hebei was relatively low, and the shipment of low - price spot and contracts was supported. In the south, rainy weather suppressed road construction demand, and some refineries had increasing inventory pressure, but overall supply was not high and prices were stable [5]. - Oil prices are oscillating at a high level. The cost side of asphalt has support but no strong upward - driving force. Short - term supply and demand are stable. In the second quarter, the inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year, which supports the near - end price. With the expectation of limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic. Asphalt performs relatively strongly among oil products, and the asphalt/oil price spread remains high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3,400 and 3,600 [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 22, BU2507 (the main contract) closed at 3,539 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. BU2508 closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 0.89%. BU2509 closed at 3,481 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan or 1.49%. SC2507 closed at 453.7 yuan/ton, down 16.4 yuan or 3.49%. Brent's first - line contract closed at $64.20, down $1.2 or 1.86%. The main - contract position was 188,000 lots, up 14,000 lots or 8.22%, and the trading volume was 234,000 lots, up 45,000 lots or 23.81%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,510 tons [2]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: BU07 - 08 was 27 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 28.95%. BU08 - 09 was 31 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 39.22%. The Shandong - main - contract basis was 68 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 31.31%. The East China - main - contract basis was 8 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 79.49%. The South China - main - contract basis was - 132 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 30.69% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: Shandong's low - end asphalt price was 3,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China's was 3,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. South China's was 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shandong's gasoline price was 7,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.14%. Shandong's diesel price was 6,531 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.18%. Shandong's petroleum coke price was 2,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 1.85%. The diluted asphalt discount was - $5.3, unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price was 7.1903, down 0.0034 or - 0.05% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: Asphalt refinery profit was - 24.30 yuan/ton, up 62.24 yuan or 71.92%. The refined - oil comprehensive profit was 446.37 yuan/ton, up 65.89 yuan or 17.32%. The BU - SC crack spread was - 204.05 yuan/ton, up 147.15 yuan or 41.90%. The gasoline - spot - Brent spread was 988.82 yuan/ton, up 76.31 yuan or 8.36%. The diesel - spot - Brent spread was 896.52 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan or 9.54% [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview** - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,590 - 3,780 yuan/ton. Demand increased slowly. With the expected increase in local supply and the weakening of the cost side, the market was wait - and - see, and high - price resources had poor transactions. Some refineries lowered prices by 10 yuan/ton [5]. - **Yangtze River Delta Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,570 - 3,590 yuan/ton. Due to the delay in funds arriving, the terminal project start - up rate was lower than expected. The demand for modified asphalt and waterproof materials was relatively stable but had limited impact on the overall market. Some refineries increased inventory and offered discounts. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,380 - 3,430 yuan/ton. Some major refineries suspended production and shipments, reducing local supply and supporting prices. With more rainy days, demand was not expected to increase significantly, and prices would remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Oil prices are oscillating at a high level. The cost side of asphalt has support but no strong upward - driving force. Short - term supply and demand are stable. The inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down in the second quarter, and the inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year, which supports the near - end price. With the expectation of limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic. Asphalt performs relatively strongly among oil products, and the asphalt/oil price spread remains high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3,400 and 3,600 [7]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price and position volume of the BU main contract, asphalt market prices in East China and Shandong, and gasoline and diesel prices of Shandong local refineries from 2021 to 2025 [9][10][13]

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures experienced a decline, with the main contract dropping to 4724.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.96% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Ningzheng Futures indicates that the upward price potential for PTA may be limited due to expected restarts of previously shut-down facilities, a slight increase in domestic supply, and high polyester inventory, leading to cautious downstream purchasing behavior [2] - Southwest Futures suggests a cautious approach to PTA in the short term, noting improvements in supply-demand structure but limited cost support due to fluctuating PX and crude oil prices [3] - New Lake Futures highlights strong support for PTA prices on the downside, with a stable trading atmosphere in the spot market and significant improvements in the balance sheet due to inventory reduction [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side improvements are noted with the recovery of several PTA production facilities, leading to an increase in PTA load to 76.9% and polyester load rising to 95.3%, indicating a slight recovery in demand [3] - The second quarter is expected to see concentrated maintenance plans for PTA facilities, with no significant production cuts anticipated in the near term, supporting price stability [4] Group 3: Price Trends - The current trading range for PTA spot prices is between 4855 and 4935 yuan, with a stable basis observed in the market [4] - The processing fee for PTA is reported at 355 yuan per ton, with PX prices at 836 USD per ton, indicating cost pressures that may affect pricing strategies [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting progress is accelerating, and the US corn price is in a bottom - range oscillation. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price has strong bottom support. The domestic corn price is expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as reduced imports of grains, low inventory of traders in North China, and expected feed enterprise procurement in May. In the medium - to - long - term, policy grain auctions are expected in June. The corn starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream procurement. Although the inventory has slightly increased this week, it is expected to have short - term support, but the enterprise may be in a long - term loss state due to weak demand [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures (C2601, C2505, C2509), the closing prices are 2249, 2261, and 2347 respectively, with increases of 0.31%, 0.13%, and 0.51%. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2505, CS2509), the closing prices are 2654, 2643, and 2738 respectively, with changes of 0.30%, - 0.19%, and 0.33%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also have different degrees of change [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices vary in different regions, such as 2210 yuan in Qinggang and 2468 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao. The basis also shows different values. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, with prices ranging from 2750 to 2970 yuan. The basis of starch is positive [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - month spreads (e.g., C01 - C05 is - 12 with a change of 4), starch inter - month spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05 is 11 with a change of 13), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09 is 391 with a change of - 3) are presented [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn price has strong bottom support. The domestic northern port flat - hatch price has declined, and the Northeast corn spot price has stabilized. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn price is weak. The wheat price in North China is stable, and wheat is gradually substituting for corn. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, but the supply is low, so the corn spot price will rise in the short - term. The reduction of imported grains is expected to be beneficial to the spot market. The corn price is expected to be strong, with short - term support at 2400 yuan/ton in North China and 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long - term, policy grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn price in Shandong is relatively stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2860 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is also strong. The corn starch inventory has slightly increased this week, reaching 142.9 million tons. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, but the profit will be repaired. The 07 starch contract is expected to have support at around 2650 [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The domestic 07 corn contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range, and short - term long positions can be considered [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the strategy of buying spot and shorting 07 corn. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch when the spread is low and conduct oscillatory operations [14]. - **Option Strategy**: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options [15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis and spread of corn starch 09 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different periods and varieties [17][20][23].