Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the current winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is about to enter the delivery month for the first delivery. Recently, the futures market has mainly traded based on the delivery cost logic. With the support of delivery costs, the valuation of the 07 contract still has room for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate in reverse spreads or short sell far - month contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Contracts**: On June 19, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2507 contract closed at 798 yuan/m³, up 2.5 yuan/m³ (0.31%) from the previous day; the log 2509 contract was at 794 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan/m³ (- 0.13%); the log 2511 contract was at 791.5 yuan/m³, down 5 yuan/m³ (- 0.63%) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The 7 - 9 spread was 4 yuan/m³, up 3.5 yuan/m³; the 9 - 11 spread was 2.5 yuan/m³, up 4 yuan/m³; the 7 - 11 spread was 6.5 yuan/m³, up 7.5 yuan/m³. The 07 contract basis was - 48 yuan/m³, down 2.5 yuan/m³; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/m³, up 1 yuan/m³; the 11 contract basis was - 41.5 yuan/m³, up 5 yuan/m³ [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 19 compared with the previous day, with a 0% change. The ex - factory prices of imported logs in the international market also remained stable [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.193 yuan on June 19, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 778.59 yuan, up 0.56 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In May, the port freight volume was 195.5 million m³, up 22.8 million m³ (13.20%) from April. The number of departing ships was 58, down 5 (- 7.94%) from the previous month [2]. - **Weekly Inventory**: As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in major Chinese ports was 345 million m³, up 6 million m³ (1.77%) from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 201 million m³, up 9.5 million m³ (4.96%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 113.31 million m³, up 1.3 million m³ (1.19%) [3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of June 13, the average daily log出库 volume in China was 5.98 million m³, down 0.33 million m³ (- 5%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.3 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (- 2%), and in Jiangsu, it was 1.9 million m³, down 0.38 million m³ (- 17%) [3].

白糖日报 软商品日报 2025/06/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 2025 年 6 月 17 日 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 795.5 | 21 | 2. 71% | | | | J2509 | 1371 | 21.5 | 1.59% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1028795 | 579001 | 23873 | | | | J2509 | 30828 | 51871 | -1247 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 860 | 878 | -18 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound in the short - term, although the EIA monthly report has increased supply expectations, putting pressure on oil prices [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show an oscillating trend. With cost - end rebounds, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Consider long spreads when the spread is low [2]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate. Although there is bottom - support in the short - term, the upward space is limited, and there is a large downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester is expected to oscillate. PX follows cost fluctuations, TA is under price pressure, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber is expected to rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to high downstream tire inventory [4][5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Although short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant, inventory and supply are at high levels [5]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. As the downstream enters the off - season, there is pressure on the fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 7 - month contract closed down $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.47% decline; Brent 8 - month contract closed down $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, a 0.25% decline; SC2507 closed up 2.6 yuan to 481.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase. EIA expects 2025 global oil production to be 104.4 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast, and global oil demand to be 103.5 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day. US oil production in June averaged 13.42 million barrels per day, down from 13.56 million barrels per day in May. API reported a 370,000 - barrel decrease in US crude inventory, a 3 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory, and a 3.7 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory for the week ending June 6 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the SHFE closed up 0.85% at 2,966 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 closed up. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly due to expected supply tightness in June. The high - sulfur market structure was relatively stable, but the month - spread and spot premium declined from previous highs [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the SHFE closed down 0.85% at 3,507 yuan per ton. June asphalt supply in North China is low, and there is an expected supply reduction in Shandong. However, increased rainfall in the South is hindering demand. The expected 2025 January - June asphalt production in China is about 13.1 million tons [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.22% at 4,612 yuan per ton, EG2509 closed up 0.31% at 4,269 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 509 closed up 0.12% at 6,502 yuan per ton. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were estimated at 50 - 60%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China is shut down, and the ethylene glycol main port is expected to receive 128,000 tons from June 9 - 15. PX is in a de - stocking pattern, TA fundamentals are weak, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed up 80 yuan at 13,805 yuan per ton, and NR closed up 105 yuan at 12,155 yuan per ton. In May, the national passenger car retail volume reached 1.932 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The first typhoon may land in Hainan, and Thai raw material supply has been affected by rainfall [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,380 yuan per ton. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7,020 - 7,230 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand has declined, but short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market was firm. Domestic real estate construction is stable, but demand is expected to weaken as the off - season approaches [7]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, and fuel oil on June 11, 2025 [8]. 3. Market News - On June 10, the EIA released a monthly energy outlook report, adjusting the 2025 global oil production and demand forecasts, and also providing forecasts for US oil production and demand [10]. - On June 10, the first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held. After the high - level talks, both sides suspended some tariffs for 90 days and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism [10]. - On June 10, the API reported that US crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the week ending June 6 [11]. 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [29][31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presents the spread trends between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Displays the spread trends between different products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Shows the cash - flow trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit trends of PP and LLDPE [70][72][75] 5. Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [77][78][79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal will experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. Coking coal will face stricter safety inspections [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On June 10, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 1417228 lots and an open interest of 567843 lots, an increase of 10312 lots. The closing price of J2509 was 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.75%, with a trading volume of 31312 lots and an open interest of 54018 lots, an increase of 255 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Various spot prices of coking coal and coke remained mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few varieties. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Peak Downs coal converted to RMB decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 decreased, while the spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 increased [2]. Price and Position Information - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: On June 10, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal at northern ports were as follows: 1290 yuan/ton for Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port, 1205 yuan/ton for Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, 1205 yuan/ton at Lianyungang Port, 1110 yuan/ton at Rizhao Port, and 1195 yuan/ton at Tianjin Port [2]. - **Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index on June 10**: S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 970 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 838 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 849 yuan [3][4]. - **Position Information**: On June 10, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 19885 lots and short positions decreased by 3681 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions increased by 693 lots and short positions increased by 351 lots [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1 [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: June 6, 2025 [1] - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated weakly, with total positions decreasing by 321 lots. The game between long and short positions remained intense, and the spot price center continued to move down. Electric carbon dropped by 50 to 60,200, and the price of Australian lithium ore dropped by 2.5 to $607.5 per ton. The price of lithium mica ore remained flat, and the price of cathode materials also decreased. The downward trend in the industry chain remained unchanged [8]. - This week, the weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons. Except for the decline in production at the recycling end, the production of carbonate lithium from other raw material ends increased, and the pressure on the supply side continued to exist. Whether the price of carbonate lithium can stop falling and rebound still depends on the strength of the demand side. In the short term, the futures price of carbonate lithium has not yet stabilized above the trend line and should still be treated with a weak perspective [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Rio Tinto is adjusting the cost of its lithium project in Serbia, which was identified as one of the 13 strategic new key material projects by the European Commission. The project was opposed by environmental groups and many Serbians due to environmental issues and led to large - scale street protests in 2022, resulting in the government revoking all of Rio Tinto's exploration licenses. The Constitutional Court overturned the decision last year and restored the licenses. The project was originally expected to start production in 2027, and the company still needs to obtain on - site mining licenses [9]. - Metal investor Cobalt Holdings will abandon its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange. The company did not disclose the specific reasons for canceling the plan. Sources revealed that the IPO process was aborted due to weak subscription demand, and the management still看好 the cobalt business model and market prospects and plans to explore alternative financing options such as private placement. The company's original plan to use most of the IPO proceeds (about $200 million) to purchase the first 6,000 tons of cobalt metal from Glencore has not been clearly determined whether to continue [9][10]. - According to the mineral and petroleum exploration data for the first quarter of 2025 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the national exploration activities decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The total exploration expenditure decreased by 18.4% (A$181 million) quarter - on - quarter to A$804.7 million, and the year - on - year decrease was 11.5% (A$105 million), a nearly 20% reduction from the quarterly peak in 2023 (over A$1 billion). Drilling activities also declined, with the new exploration drilling volume decreasing by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter and the total drilling meters decreasing by 11.6% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of rebar futures is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to potential supply - demand contradictions and lower cost centers [1]. - The iron ore 09 contract is viewed as oscillating in the near future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The coking coal market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand, coking enterprise profits, and imported coal supply [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and steel mill profit repair [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 140 (+4) [1]. - Last week, rebar apparent demand declined, production increased, and inventory depletion slowed. Demand is about to seasonally weaken, while steel mills have good profits and lack the willingness to cut production actively. The cost center of steel has shifted down due to falling raw material prices [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price is below the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly under the background of low valuation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures market was weak, affected by the decline in export heat and the slow decline of coal prices. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (-7), the Platts 62% index was 96.45 US dollars/ton (-1.2), and the monthly average was 99.50 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 76 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,913.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.94. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 243.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17 [1]. - There are more blast furnace overhauls recently, mainly in Hebei and Northeast China, and the overhaul time is long. The hot metal output may continue to decline, but the amplitude will not be large. The iron ore 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the near future [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in the main production areas maintain normal production, but some areas have phased production restrictions. The import volume at the Mongolian port remains low, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. With the increasing expectation of the second round of coke price cuts, the market risk - aversion sentiment intensifies, and the enthusiasm of coal washing enterprises for starting work is limited [3]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply - demand contradictions, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products, the profit repair of coking enterprises, and the change of imported coal supply [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, coking enterprises in the main production areas maintain a normal production rhythm, and some areas limit production due to narrowed profit margins, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable [3]. - In terms of inventory, most coking enterprises maintain low - inventory operation, but some resources face sales pressure due to the slowdown of steel mill procurement. There is a bargaining space in the market due to quality differentiation [3]. - In terms of demand, the scope of blast furnace overhauls in steel mills has expanded, and the rigid demand has declined marginally. Steel mills maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and mainstream steel mills have initiated the second round of price cuts [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products and the profit repair of steel mills [3]. Industry News - From May 19th to May 25th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.1 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners is 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [4]. - In April 2025, except for a slight increase in the procurement cost of steam coal, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, among which the procurement costs of coking coal, pulverized coal injection, domestic iron concentrate, and imported lump ore decreased significantly [4]. - The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued an implementation plan, aiming to complete about 500,000 vehicle scrap and replacement updates and more than 8 million home appliance trade - ins in 2025 [4]. - Guangxi adjusted the deed tax rates for individuals purchasing first - and second - home properties [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, the overseas quotation continues to decline, and the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists. The arrival of goods at ports is expected to resume this week, the current downward trend of the futures market continues, the price is close to the phased bottom, and the previous short positions can be held. It is recommended to participate in the 7 - 9 reverse spread [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 27 compared to May 26, with declines of - 2.58%, - 1.27%, and - 0.82% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 also decreased, while the basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased. Most spot prices of different types of logs in ports remained stable, except for the 4A large radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by - 2.44%. The overseas quotes of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly from 7.170 to 7.187, and the import theoretical cost increased from 776.13 yuan to 777.89 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In April, the port shipment volume increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From February 16th to February 23rd, the total inventory of Chinese ports decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.59%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 1.11%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 1.70% [3] 3.5 Demand: - From February 16th to May 23rd, the daily average log出库 volume in China increased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 3% [3]

| 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2 26日 | 2555 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 763.5 | 777.5 | -14.0 | -1.80% | | | 原木2509 | 783.5 | 791.5 | -8.0 | -1.01% | | | 原木2511 | 789.5 | 795.5 | -6.0 | -0.75% | | | 7-9价差 | -20.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -4.0 | -2.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.0 | -18.0 | -8.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -13.5 | -27.5 | 14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -33.5 | -41.5 | 8.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -39.5 | -45.5 | 6.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 720.0 | 720. ...