Core Viewpoint - Investors are capitalizing on a rare opportunity in the long-term U.S. Treasury bond market, with significant inflows into the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) amid concerns over U.S. debt trajectory [1][4] Group 1: Investment Trends - Over the past week, investors have poured $1.8 billion into TLT, making it the most inflow among 630 ETFs tracked by Bloomberg [1] - TLT has attracted approximately $49 billion over the past five years, despite a decline of over 40% during the same period [1] - The recent buying trend indicates that traders are betting that yields have risen enough to attract buyers and compensate for risks associated with long-term bonds [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Optimism surrounding U.S.-EU trade negotiations and Japan's potential adjustments to bond issuance have contributed to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices, pushing the 30-year bond yield below 5% [1] - TLT experienced a 1.7% increase in intraday trading, potentially marking its largest single-day gain since February [1] - Other ETFs, such as iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) and iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV), also saw significant inflows [4] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the current market sentiment has shifted from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic, with long-term bonds offering the greatest potential returns due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes [4][5] - The demand for downside protection in the options market indicates that traders remain cautious about further declines in long-term bonds [5] - The outlook for long-term bonds is contingent on fiscal conditions and the appropriateness of lending levels to a country with such a debt trajectory [5]

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 关税政策落地后，美债收益率一路走高，30年期美国国债收益率一度突破5%，而10年期收益率也触及 4.50%。近期，美债收益率再次飙升，30年期美债收益率突破5%，最高至5.096%；10年期美债收益率突 破4.5%，最高至4.604%。 这一变化的背后，正是因为国际三大信用评级机构之一的穆迪（Moody's）于5月15日宣布，将美国主权 信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，主要是担忧美国政府的债务和利息支付比例一路攀升。 除此之外，高盛最新研报揭示，日本长期国债收益率的"崩盘式"上涨，也是导致美债收益率大涨的幕后 推手。 5月19日，日本首相石破茂公开表示，日本财政状况"比希腊还糟糕"。数据显示，日本债务/GDP比率已 超250%，远高于希腊债务危机时的180%。 外围进一步催化了市场情绪——市场担忧在这场关税谈判中日元可能面临被动升值，也就是日元有可能 会继续加息。 显然，日债危机是在最近一周"表面爆发"的，但其风险积累早在2024年就已逐步显现。 自2024年8月以来，作为日债最大买家（日本央行目前持有日本国债市场52%的份额，是日本国债最大 的买家）的 ...

资深央行记者认为，尽管最近的美债收益率波动并不意味着市场恐慌或危机前兆，但它反映出金融市场 已经发生了某种根本性转变。 近日，《华尔街日报》记者格雷格·伊普（Greg Ip）发布了一篇关于全球债券市场变化的深度报道—— 《债券市场对华盛顿说：我们要让你付出代价》。作为长期关注货币政策和金融市场的专业记者，伊普 在央行报道领域拥有丰富的经验和独到见解。 文章的核心观点是，疫情前那个储蓄过剩、资金追逐债券的时代已经结束。现在，各国政府必须为借贷 付出更高的代价，而巨额预算赤字也变得更加危险。伊普特别强调，虽然这是一个全球性趋势，但美国 的情况尤其值得关注，因为其年度赤字可能突破2万亿美元，并有望达到3万亿美元，同时美元储备货币 地位也面临潜在冲击。 债券收益率上升背后的真相——不是通胀恐慌，而是供给冲击 伊普指出，要理解当前的债券市场动荡，不能仅仅看单一债券的表现，而需要观察不同期限债券之间的 相互作用。 自4月2日以来，2年期美债收益率仅上升了10个基点，而10年期收益率上升了35个基点，30年期收益率 更是上升了5个基点。 这种差异化的表现说明了什么？伊普写道： 所以，投资者并不担心通胀或美联储；他们只是希望 ...

OEXN Supports Sportsmanship and Charity 7th Larnaka International Marathon 由于全球市场对美国不断扩大的财政赤字感到焦虑，债券投资者要求持有长期美国债务的补偿越来越高。OEXN平台表示，美国10年期期限溢价——即投资 者要求持有较长期债务而非一系列较短期债务的额外回报——已攀升至接近1%的水平，这是自2014年以来的最高水平。这一指标反映了投资者对美国未来 借贷规模扩大的担忧程度。 OEXN平台进一步认为，美国的融资挑战在穆迪评级公司一周前剥夺美国最高信用评级后变得尤为突出。这一降级随后又遭遇了美国众议院通过的一项数万 亿美元法案，该法案延长了特朗普总统的减税政策，以及20年期国债拍卖需求疲软。 OEXN平台还提到，美国长期借贷成本本周大幅上升，30年期收益率攀升至5.15%，接近近20年来的最高水平。经通胀调整后的同期限实际利率在周三收于 2008年以来的最高水平。周五，随着抛售吸引买家，这一趋势有所缓解。美国银行的Michael Hartnett表示，投资者应抓住机会增加长期国债的持有量，因为 美国政府可能会听从债券市场的警告，控制 ...

星展集团：新加坡核心通货膨胀将在今年剩余时间保持温和 美国银行：美国消费者信用卡支出在5月初出现放缓 澳新银行预测显示，截至2025年底，印度央行预计将会实施三次降息操作；鉴于目前印度的通胀压力并 不显著，而经济增长却显得疲软，这可能会推动印度央行持续采取宽松的货币政策以刺激经济。倘若 2025年第一季度的GDP数据未能达到预期，印度央行可能不得不下调本财年6.5%的经济增长预期。 美国银行指出，美国消费者信用卡支出从3月同比增长1.1%放缓至4月下半月的同比增长1%。5月前两 周，支出增长持平，没有同比增长；鉴于征收关税和相应的价格上涨导致经济不确定性依然很高，分析 师继续密切关注消费者的反应。 万神殿宏观经济公司认为，美国消费增长的减缓可能引发经济步入"停滞"阶段，尽管衰退或许可以避 免。企业界预期消费者需求将会减弱，并已经开始减少招聘人数。 预计裁员的步伐将加快，新的招聘活动也将减少，特别是在关税导致的价格上涨开始生效之后，消费者 支出从高于平均水平转向低于平均水平。 阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家认为，美国消费疲软是影响美国经济前景的主要风险，物价上涨可能 导致美联储在更长时间内维持较高利率；如果美国 ...

金十数据5月23日讯，花旗从全球资产配置的角度来看，市场可能需要更多的期限溢价才能使美国国债 企稳。鉴于美国同比通胀可能上升，花旗坚持减持美国国债。不过，花旗表示，美国利率下跌的时机很 难预测。收益率曲线变陡也是一种全球现象，而不仅仅是由美国国债推动的。 花旗：稳定美国国债需要更高的期限溢价 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds is facing significant challenges as "bond vigilantes" question excessive government spending and inflation prospects, leading to higher borrowing costs for governments in uncertain environments [1][2] - The recent auction of 20-year US Treasury bonds resulted in a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking a notable increase from the pre-issue rate and reflecting a decline in demand as evidenced by a drop in the bid-to-cover ratio [1][2] - Similar trends are observed in Japan, where the average bid-to-cover ratio for government bond auctions has decreased, indicating weak demand, with the 20-year bond auction showing the lowest participation since 2012 [2][5] Group 2 - The concept of "term premium" is highlighted as a key factor driving bond sell-offs, with the current term premium for US 10-year Treasuries estimated at 0.79%, which is considered low compared to historical levels during similar economic conditions [3][4] - Investors are reassessing their strategies in light of recent developments, with some shifting away from long-term bond investments due to concerns over fiscal policies and credit ratings [3][4] - The participation rate of foreign investors in US 30-year bond auctions has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, reflecting growing apprehension regarding US fiscal policies [4][5] Group 3 - The Japanese bond market is experiencing similar pressures, with rising yields on long-term bonds as investors anticipate potential interest rate hikes and reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5] - Germany is positioned to benefit from the global bond repricing process, as its debt-to-GDP ratio remains below 100%, making it an attractive option for investors seeking safety amid rising yields elsewhere [5]

美债收益率欧洲早盘走低，延续周四跌势 金十数据5月16日讯，美债收益率在欧洲早盘下跌，延续周四的趋势，因货币市场在本周疲弱的CPI数 据出炉后继续押注美联储降息。法国兴业银行利率策略师在一份报告中表示："市场继续消化美联储的 降息预期。"话虽如此，美债收益率曲线应会趋陡，因投资者消化期限溢价上升的影响，即更多收益率 投资者寻求持有长期美债，而非短期美债。"期限溢价可能会继续扩大，美联储将在今年晚些时候降 息。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite recent market gains and a strong dollar, continuing to chase these gains is no longer attractive due to weakening economic data and rising term premium risks, which may lead to market adjustments [1] - Citi's report highlights that the reduction in DOGE spending and declining tariff revenues could trigger a surge in term premium, potentially resulting in a "triple whammy" of falling U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar [1][10] - The report indicates that the upcoming labor market report in May may start to reflect the negative impacts of recent policies, which could elevate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 50 basis points back to 100 basis points [5] Group 2 - Citi emphasizes the need for investors to connect the policies of the Trump administration, noting that the DOGE plan aimed to cut costs while tariffs were intended to increase revenues, but the chaotic implementation has led to a potential increase in fiscal deficits [6] - The report expresses concern over the high level of U.S. term premium, with expectations that the 30-year swap spread will narrow further to -95 basis points later this year [6][10] - Historical data suggests that the state of rising term premium may persist, especially as budget issues come to the forefront, compounded by low foreign demand for U.S. debt, which could exacerbate fiscal risks [10] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the current dollar rebound presents an opportunity to sell dollars at better prices, with a belief that the dollar's weakness this year is cyclical rather than structural [13] - Analysts are particularly focused on the attractiveness of long positions in Swiss francs as a safe haven, while noting that the Swiss National Bank cannot intervene in tariff issues without being perceived as currency manipulation [16] - Investors are advised to closely monitor whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks the critical 5% level and whether the yield curve steepens, as these could signal increased term premium risks and potential adjustments in risk assets and a weakening dollar [18]

| | | 大涨背后的裂痕：今夏美国再现股债汇三杀？ 美股连续大涨，市场情绪再度转热，但大涨背后的裂痕已经出现。 当市场焦点从眼前的关税缓解转向减税，夏季美国市场将面临新的"股债汇三杀"风险。 花旗认为特朗普的政策原本是一套组合拳，其中： 也就是说DOGE和关税进展都不顺，而减税推进则愈发带来市场对债务的忧虑，尤其是外资： 当前财政赤字的背景：当前正值美国的期限溢价已经处于高位。历史上，期限溢价的飙升可能会持续较 长时间（ 图1），预计这种情况将再次出现，尤其是在预算问题成为焦点时。 外国投资者需求的挑战：外国投资者对美国国债的需求仍然是一个阻力，这进一步增加了风险。 而这个夏季可能会出现"减税+就业数据恶化"的基本面组合： 财政赤字扩大与经济数据疲软：今年夏天的风险是双重的： 一方面，随着财政赤字扩大，可能会出现另一轮期限溢价飙升； 另一方面，一些经济数据的疲软可能开始显现。这些因素可能会导致美联储的政策重新定价为更偏鸽派 （尤其是考虑到最近市场对2025年美联储降息预期从100个基点迅速调整到仅略高于50个基点）。 劳动力市场的季节性疲软：值得注意的是，我们即将进入劳动力市场数据季节性疲软的时期（见图 2 ...