1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Chinese equity assets are expected to initiate a spring market. Factors include the Fed's monthly purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds, intense space infrastructure competition between China and the US, institutional funds entering the market through A500ETF, the approaching of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices to previous highs, the seasonal pattern of the Chinese stock market, the end of the A - share sideways movement, the high "science content" of the CSI 500 index, and the accelerating appreciation of the RMB [37]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the global stock market has entered the "optimistic stage" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market, with a total return rate of 15% including dividends [4]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, started buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet [4][5]. - Trump stated that the next Fed chairman must believe in "substantial interest rate cuts" [4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the current decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [4]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusted its economic relations with China, and aimed to revitalize its economic autonomy [4]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified. High - income consumers' spending remains resilient, while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [4]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.0% [4]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists are worried that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [4][11]. - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [4]. - The US November core CPI was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [8]. - The US weekly initial jobless claims were 224,000 [11]. - The US employment outlook declined. The number of new ADP jobs in November was negative, and the number of active corporate layoffs increased rapidly [14]. - The total retail and food sales in the US in October showed zero month - on - month growth, indicating weakening consumption [17]. - The US capital goods import amount in September decreased rapidly both year - on - year and month - on - month, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [20]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index continued to contract in November [23]. - The US manufacturing PMI price index and service PMI price index continued to expand in November, indicating accelerating inflation [26]. - The US PPI commodity month - on - month growth rate in September was 0.9%. Coupled with weakening consumption and declining employment, the US economy is slipping into stagflation [29]. - The eurozone manufacturing PMI contracted again in November, and the eurozone economy was greatly impacted by US counter - tariffs [32]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the rise in the yield of Japanese government bonds will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [34]. Asset Allocation - The Fed's purchase of short - term bonds is beneficial to Chinese equity assets [37]. - The space infrastructure competition between China and the US has led to a high - growth period in commercial space, and satellite ETFs have risen strongly [37][38]. - Some institutions have started spring layout in advance, and institutional funds have entered the market through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3,950 points [37][45]. - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are close to previous highs and are expected to reach new highs after New Year's Day [37]. - The Chinese stock market has a seasonal pattern, and usually starts a spring offensive around the Spring Festival [37]. - The A - share market has been sideways for 4 months since late August and is expected to start a new market [37][48]. - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 index has the highest "science content" and is expected to break through previous highs [37][51]. - The accelerating appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the influx of international capital into China [37][54]. Space Infrastructure - Blue Arrow Aerospace verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket on December 6 [41].

#以太坊#比特币#以太坊实时分析#比特币实时分析# 日线级别的多只关注一个位置：74200附近 这种日线的反复性，让我们持续对下跌，保持担忧，但是又怕错过，所以，日内的策略我们还是稳中求进，昨天周一，是晚上八点开始拉涨的，既然你这 么喜欢控盘，那么就继续按照它的表演来，预测上涨力度至89500和3020-3040这个位置，或者干脆不考虑价格，直接看今晚八点价格上涨的最高点，然后 在晚上九点开始进仓空单，继续看下方支撑位：2930和86800，这个价格如果四小时大阴线跌破，空单大成，后面我们的抄底单有希望。操作上我们继续 以空为主，日线不收强阳，吞掉前面的上涨形态，依旧不考虑多。 另外，黄金不要考虑它的顶在哪，国内继续看2000，这个观点我们在本月13号那篇文章重点分析了，才10天时间已经实现，后面继续期待，老吕本身就是 黄金的坚定持有者。 今日：2025年12月23日晚间18点43分撰写老吕，注意所有策略生效一次，不可反复使用！関注图中或视频右下角查看文字版本和具体进场价格 日线级别的多，关注两个位置2380-2400这个区域和2120附近这个区域。 比特币，依旧是等一个机会，等一个日线级别底背离的机会，以7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - Global stock markets have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market. With dividends included, the total return rate will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to show results [1]. - The global economy is starting to weaken as the US is making continuous wrong policies and the US is contracting globally under the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - **Stock Market**: High - end judgment indicates that global stocks are in a bull - market "optimistic phase" with a 15% total return in 2026 including dividends. The market is transitioning from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is effective [1]. - **Space and Resources**: Russia plans to build a lunar nuclear power plant by 2036, and the US plans to deploy a lunar reactor by 2030. The competition between the two countries is about the development dominance of strategic resources on the moon [1]. - **Corporate Acquisition**: Jiangxi Copper has acquired Australian miner SolGold for up to $1.17 billion, gaining control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador with one of South America's largest undeveloped copper - gold deposits [1]. - **Employment Market**: The US employment market shows a warming signal. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped to 214,000, lower than the previous value. Although the number of continued unemployment claims rose slightly to 1.923 million, it is still significantly lower than the annual high [1]. - **Currency Market**: Due to the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and political uncertainty, the US dollar has been sold off, falling nearly 10% this year and approaching its worst performance in 20 years. Non - US currencies are strengthening, gold has hit a record high, and the yen has become a new market focus [1]. - **Technology and Advertising**: OpenAI is planning the advertising commercialization path of ChatGPT to monetize its nearly 900 million user base, which may challenge the trillion - dollar digital advertising market dominated by Google and Meta [1]. - **Banking Regulation**: US regulators have proposed to relax bank regulations, allowing large banks to increase leverage, reform stress tests, and revoke high - risk loan guidelines. The total market value of six major US banks has risen from $1.77 trillion at the end of last year to $2.38 trillion and is expected to outperform the S&P 500 for two consecutive years [1]. - **Bond Market**: Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds to about 17 trillion yen next fiscal year, the lowest in 17 years, to ease concerns about excessive debt supply, while keeping the issuance of medium - and short - term bonds unchanged [1]. - **Economic Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is buying $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, expanding its balance sheet. Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts". The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning before the 2008 financial crisis. The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China. The K - shaped differentiation of US consumers is intensifying. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.0%. Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and increase it by 1000 times in 4 - 5 years. NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI competition. The construction of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years. The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs [2].

Group 1: Real Estate Policy - Beijing has implemented new real estate policies to stabilize the market, including reducing the social security or tax payment duration for non-Beijing residents to purchase homes within the Fifth Ring Road from 3 years to 2 years, and from 2 years to 1 year outside the Fifth Ring Road [2][7] - The new policies also support multi-child families, allowing eligible families to purchase additional homes within the Fifth Ring Road [2][7] - Credit policies have been optimized, with no distinction between first and second home loan interest rates, and the down payment ratio for second homes using public housing funds reduced to 25% [2][7] Group 2: Currency and Commodities - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching a low of 6.9999, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a declining USD index [2][7] - The global precious metals market saw significant gains, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce, silver exceeding $72 per ounce, platinum breaking $2300 per ounce, and copper reaching $12159.50 per ton, influenced by liquidity expectations and supply-demand imbalances [2][7][8] Group 3: Stock Market Activity - A-shares financing balance reached a historic high of 25,145.96 billion yuan, increasing by 6,764.47 billion yuan since the second half of the year, indicating heightened market activity [3][8] - The AI hardware sector saw strong performance, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Yingweike reaching new highs, following news of Nvidia's plans to deliver H200 chips to China [3][8] - Intel's stock fell over 5% in pre-market trading due to Nvidia pausing tests on Intel's 18A process technology, raising concerns about Intel's market position despite previous investments [3][8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Analyst Ren Zeping describes the current bull market as a once-in-a-decade event, driven by policy easing, technological revolutions, and abundant liquidity, which are expected to support economic recovery and market growth [4][9] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate the introduction of major foreign investment projects and improve the business environment to attract foreign capital [5][9] - The central bank and eight departments issued guidelines to support the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, proposing 21 measures to enhance financial cooperation and promote high-quality development [5][10]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached all-time highs, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $72 per ounce, marking increases of over 70% and approximately 150% respectively this year [1] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices include geopolitical tensions involving the US and Venezuela, potential conflicts between Iran and Israel, uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a weakening dollar, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market anticipates a dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve chairman, which has positively impacted international silver prices [1] Group 2 - The iShares Silver ETF has seen a significant increase in holdings, with a daily rise of 533 tons on December 23, indicating a tightening supply in the silver market [2] - The rental rates for physical silver have reached their highest levels in nearly five years, further supporting the recent surge in silver prices due to supply constraints [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe that gold prices will continue to rise due to increasing US debt risks, diminishing attractiveness of dollar assets, strong global central bank interest in gold, and an ongoing interest rate cut cycle in the US [3] - Despite the bullish outlook for gold and silver, there are warnings about potential short-term risks, with suggestions for investors to manage their positions carefully [4] - Reports indicate that while gold prices are expected to rise steadily, silver prices may experience greater short-term volatility [4]

2026年A股行情将如何演绎？哪些行业板块最被看好？21财经·南财快讯记者梳理了30多家券商年度策略 报告，核心观点一图速览。 2026年牛市有望继续 大部分券商认为2026年A股牛市继续。也有部分券商 认为,A股将横盘震荡,涨幅放缓。 机构看好这些板块 科技仍是最强主线 大部分券商认为,中长期来看,以人工智能技术为代表 的科技仍是主线。重点关注AI产业链关键环节与"应用 侧"扩散,例如AI算力、存储芯片、人形机器人、半导 体等。 | 推荐券商 家数 | 板块 | 配置理由 | | --- | --- | --- | | 21 | Al | 作为新一轮科技革命的核心驱动 力,AI正持续推动技术创新与产 业变革,其应用空间极为广阔。 | | | | 全球主要经济体也在积极支持AI | | | | 产业发展,海内外互联网巨头也 | | | | 纷纷加大在AI领域的投资与研发 | | | | 投入,Al有望成为长期主线。 | | | | 扩大内需政策导向下消费板块迎 | | | 消费 | 来布局窗口,出海趋势将带动企 | | --- | --- | --- | | 17 | | 业盈利空间进一步打开。2026年 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a bullish trend driven by structural market conditions and capital market reform policies, with expectations for a new wave of market activity as adjustments have largely completed and institutional rankings have settled [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The "A series" broad-based indices opened lower but continued to rise, with the CSI A500 index up by 0.5%, the CSI A100 index up by 0.7%, and the CSI A50 index also up by 0.7% at midday [1]. - The A500 ETF managed by E Fund (159361) recorded a trading volume of nearly 6.5 billion yuan, with over 1 billion shares net subscribed [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the A500 ETF has attracted approximately 5 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. Group 2: Index Details - The CSI A500 index consists of 500 securities with large market capitalizations and good liquidity, covering 89 out of 93 sub-industries [3]. - The CSI A100 index includes 100 representative securities with large market capitalizations and good liquidity, covering 46 sub-industries, reflecting the overall performance of core leading companies [3]. - The CSI A50 index is composed of the 50 largest stocks by market capitalization across various industries, with a balanced distribution across 50 sub-industries, highlighting a large-cap style [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold and silver prices are experiencing significant increases, with gold nearing $4500 and silver approaching $70, driven by market enthusiasm and liquidity gaps [1][2] - Silver has seen a remarkable increase of over 120% this year, while gold has surpassed a 70% increase, indicating a strong bull market for both precious metals [2] - The fundamental drivers for the ongoing bull market include the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policies and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, with a focus on the Fed's stance being crucial for gold's long-term outlook [2] Group 2 - Recent trading activity shows gold prices breaking historical highs, with a notable rise to over $4380, setting the stage for further increases [4] - The market sentiment remains bullish, with gold prices rising from $4350 to around $4390, indicating strong upward momentum [5] - Caution is advised regarding potential price corrections, with key entry points identified for traders, emphasizing the importance of risk management in volatile market conditions [7]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing gains and a broad-based rally, with positive movements across various sectors including AI, banks, retailers, and industrials [1] - There is optimism about the market's trajectory into 2026, with indications of underlying economic strength despite challenges faced by businesses [2] Earnings and Predictions - The market has shown resilience, with a 17% gain for the S&P this year, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit percentage gains [5] - Historical data suggests that average bull markets last about five years, indicating that the current market is still in its early stages [6] Economic Factors - Recent legislative measures and clarity around tariff policies are expected to positively impact the economy, alongside consumer support from back tax refunds and deregulation efforts [7] - The market's performance last year amidst uncertainties suggests that current clarity and fundamental support for earnings may sustain stock prices [8] Market Dynamics - There is ongoing confusion regarding market leadership, with fluctuations between major tech stocks and broader market indices [9] - The Federal Reserve's stance and continued earnings growth are critical factors for market stability moving forward [9] Historical Context - The market has only seen stocks rise in double-digit percentages four times consecutively in the last century, highlighting the uniqueness of the current situation [10]

Market Overview - The market is perceived as healthy, with a belief that the tech pullback is not indicative of a broader market decline, as many stocks are still performing well [1][2] - Predictions for 2026 suggest a total return of 12% to 15% for the market, indicating continued optimism [3][4] - Historical patterns show that after significant market volatility, such as a 15% decline, the following year typically sees an average increase of 20% [5] Stock Performance - Recent data indicates an increase in the number of stocks reaching 52-week highs on the NYSE, suggesting broad market strength beyond just technology [2] - Micron's recent strong performance is highlighted, with its stock price showing significant gains, although it has not yet surpassed its yearly highs [6][7] - Concerns remain about the concentration of the S&P 500, where 40% of the index is made up of a few large stocks, which could pose risks if any of these stocks falter [7][8] Sector Analysis - There is a cautious sentiment among investors regarding certain sectors, with some stocks like Oracle and Costco being viewed as overvalued [11][12] - Defensive stocks and biotechs are currently performing well, while oil stocks are underperforming [11] - Developed international markets are gaining attention, with countries like Japan and Germany reaching all-time highs, suggesting potential investment opportunities outside the U.S. [15][16] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a dovish stance, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated, which could influence market dynamics [19][20] - Retail sales data and earnings reports have been solid, indicating a resilient economy despite concerns about the labor market [21]