机构看好节后行情 节日期间有多个市场表现亮眼。5月2日，A股休市，港股正常交易，当天港股全线大涨。离岸人民币汇 率持续走强，离岸人民币兑美元日内一度升至7.226，为自4月4日以来的最高水平。5月5日，人民币继 续大涨，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中升破7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次。有分析称，越来越多的迹象 表明，全球贸易紧张局势出现了边际缓和。 浙商证券研究所副所长、策略首席分析师廖静池在最新的分析报告中表示，"五一"期间港股、人民币汇 率等相关资产走势整体乐观。如无意外，节后A股大概率顺势向上"补涨"，4月7日的跳空缺口将有更大 程度的修复。 展望"五一"后的市场，券商分析师认为，节日期间港股、人民币汇率等相关资产走势整体乐观，节后A 股大概率顺势"补涨"。 对于配置方向，科技和红利主题成为券商分析师关注的重点。分析师表示，过去几年中央和地方政府给 予"新质生产力"充分的政策支持，具有全球竞争潜力的企业在估值上更具性价比。在红利资产方面，市 场情绪走弱时，红利资产既能提供稳定的现金流、抵御市场波动，又能提供额外的收益。 华西证券则更加关注科技产业的基本面逻辑。华西证券首席策略分析师李立峰在最近的研报中表示 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue showing a warming risk appetite and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings and trading opportunities [2] - The overall market is currently in a narrow fluctuation range, and investors are advised to adopt a low-buy high-sell strategy within this range [3] - Domestic policies are entering an observation period, with a focus on internal demand and technology sectors as key investment themes [4] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost "Chinese assets," with AI+ becoming a significant investment theme in May [5] - Consumption and technology are both seen as growth directions, with a preference for technology investments due to their relative low position [6] - Defensive strategies are recommended, with a focus on bonds and dividend assets, as well as potential opportunities in safe-haven assets like gold and military [7] Group 3 - The consumption data during the May Day holiday showed significant recovery, driven by extended holiday time and favorable policies [10] - The market outlook for May suggests a continuation of the fluctuation pattern, with an emphasis on independent industry trends and policy expectations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market outlook for May is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to "catch up" post-holiday, particularly in light of the positive trends in Hong Kong stocks and the renminbi exchange rate [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On May 2, Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08% [2]. - The offshore renminbi strengthened, reaching a high of 7.24 against the US dollar, the highest level since April 4 [2]. - Analysts suggest that the trade tensions are showing signs of marginal easing, contributing to a positive market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Signals - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting conveyed positive signals aimed at stabilizing the capital market, emphasizing the need for a "stable and active capital market" [3]. - The easing of aggressive tariff policies by the US is expected to reduce market volatility and improve liquidity expectations [3]. Group 3: Focus on Technology - Analysts are optimistic about domestic technology-related assets, highlighting that the current monetary policy environment favors small-cap growth stocks [4]. - The Chinese government has provided substantial policy support for sectors like AI, robotics, and biomedicine, enhancing the competitive potential of domestic companies [4][5]. Group 4: Dividend Stocks as Safe Haven - Dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role in volatile market conditions, providing steady cash flow and additional returns [6][7]. - Research indicates that companies are improving their cash flow and dividend capabilities, with the non-financial free cash flow to equity ratio reaching historical highs [6][7]. - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is projected to be 3.2%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [7].

中信证券：5月A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征；中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波 段策略为主；申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向。 ②中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波段策略为主 中信建投认为，展望后市，只要情绪指数处于50以上，且全A指数处于年线和半年线上方，都应该维持 战略性乐观判断，配置半仓以上仓位。整体看，当前市场已经进入窄幅震荡区间，情绪指数波动带来的 右侧买卖信号作用下降，建议投资者更关注情绪指数整体水平和分项指标的提示意义，操作上以震荡区 间低买高卖波段策略为主。 ③平安证券：政策呵护、内需韧性与科技自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间 平安证券指出，综合来看，五一假期出行旅游、观影消费数据亮眼，伴随国内政策加速落地显效，消费 对经济增长的推动力将持续强化，同时AI科技革命与自主可控逻辑不变，政策呵护、内需韧性与科技 自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间。结构上建议关注两条主线：一是国产科技自主可控（新质生产 力、先进制造、国防军工等）；二是受益于扩内需政策支持，基本面预期修复且具备估值性价比的内循 环消费优质资产。 ④申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向 申万宏源表示，维持二季度震荡市判断。 ...

每经记者 杨建 每经编辑 彭水萍 （一）重磅消息 1、据央视新闻5月4日报道，随着出入境便利度持续改善，跨境移动支付不断迭代，离境退税"即买即 退"全国推广，这个"五一"假期，中国入境旅游市场订单激增，入境游潜力持续释放。中国社会科学院 旅游研究中心特约研究员王笑宇认为，我们的入境旅游市场增长空间非常广阔，意大利、法国这些发达 国家和世界知名的旅游目的地国家，他们入境游的收入占整个GDP是2%左右，日本是1.3%左右，中国 的入境旅游收入占GDP是0.5%左右。根据摩根士丹利等国际研究机构预测，未来10年中国的入境旅游 的市场将增长4~8倍。 2、5月2日当天，境外离岸市场美元兑人民币汇率（CNH）从7.27一路回到7.21附近，这意味着离岸人 民币汇率单日涨幅超过600个基点。离岸人民币快速上涨，主要受到多方面因素影响，一是近日沃尔玛 等美国大型零售企业通知中国供应商恢复发货，外汇市场对中国外贸环境改善的预期明显提升，纷纷调 高人民币汇率估值；二是华尔街投资机构认为美联储年内仍将多次降息，纷纷提前买涨人民币、日元等 非美货币"对冲"美元贬值风险。第三，节假日期间离岸人民币外汇市场交易活跃度相对较低，部分海外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that technological self-sufficiency is a key investment theme, particularly in the context of ongoing US-China trade tensions, which are seen as a competition in the technology sector [1][3]. Industry Insights - The concept of self-sufficiency refers to the ability to independently research, design, and control core technologies across the entire lifecycle of information systems, from hardware to software [2]. - The Chinese government has highlighted the importance of building self-sufficient industrial and supply chains, particularly in sectors such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, medical equipment, and advanced materials [2]. Investment Opportunities - Various institutions believe that technological self-sufficiency has become a reliable investment direction, with a focus on domestic demand in technology, particularly in areas like domestic computing power [4][5]. - Securities firms such as Everbright Securities and Huafu Securities are optimistic about investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry, recommending attention to wafer manufacturing and AI computing power chips [6]. Market Growth Projections - The China Investment Industry Research Institute projects that the market size of self-sufficient industries will reach 1.47 trillion yuan by 2027, indicating significant market potential [7]. - A selection of 50 potential stocks in the self-sufficient technology sector was made based on three criteria: research and development intensity, gross profit margin, and the ratio of contract liabilities to revenue [7]. Stock Performance and Predictions - Among the 50 identified stocks, 14 have seen upward adjustments in profit forecasts post-annual report releases, with two stocks, Foxit Software and Rainbow Technology, experiencing over 50% increases in 2025 profit predictions [9]. - Foxit Software's net profit forecast for 2025 was raised by 152.78% to 91 million yuan, reflecting strong recent performance [10]. - Rainbow Technology's net profit forecast for 2025 was increased by 58.27% to 220 million yuan, driven by its focus on technological innovation [10][11]. Institutional Interest - Six stocks from the identified 50 have received net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan from institutional investors, with Chip Origin Technology and China Software being notable examples [12]. - Chip Origin Technology has a range of self-sufficient processor IPs applicable in various fields, while China Software is recognized as a leading state-owned enterprise in software, benefiting from its strategic position and brand recognition [12][13].

Group 1 - The equity market experienced a "V-shaped" trend in April, with financial and consumer sectors showing resilience while technology and advanced manufacturing sectors faced significant declines of 6.38% and 5.76% respectively [11][15] - The convertible bond market demonstrated relative strength, with small-cap convertible bonds only declining by 0.39%, while financial convertible bonds increased by 0.44% [15][28] - The premium rate for convertible bonds remained stable at approximately 22%, with the median price around 119 yuan, indicating a strong demand for convertible bonds despite slight declines in bond valuations [30][35] Group 2 - Economic indicators suggest a recovery in domestic consumption and investment, with GDP growth in Q1 reaching 5.4%, exceeding market expectations [42][44] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating a contraction, driven by weakened external demand due to tariff impacts [44][45] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors such as technology, defense, and precious metals, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic demand in supporting export chains [45][48] Group 3 - The outlook for the convertible bond market suggests a stable valuation for equity-sensitive convertible bonds, with potential for upward adjustment in AAA-rated large-cap convertible bonds [51][58] - A balanced strategy is recommended, focusing on low-priced debt-oriented convertible bonds and growth-oriented equity-sensitive varieties, particularly in sectors like agriculture, wind energy, and transportation [58][59] - The proposed convertible bond portfolio includes various bonds from sectors such as new energy, cyclical industries, and semiconductor equipment, indicating a diversified investment approach [59][60]

月度策略/A 股市场 2025 年 4 月 30 日 继续企稳修复 2025 年 5 月份投资策略报告 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 市场主要指数 | 4 | 月份表现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3279.03 | -1.70% | | 深证成指 | 9899.82 | -5.75% | | 沪深 300 | 3770.57 | -3.00% | | 创业板指 | 1948.03 | -7.40% | | 北证 50 | 1331.13 | 4.72% | | 科创 50 | 1012.42 | -1.01% | 资料来源：东莞 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.30） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强，IM、IC 相对强势 参考策略：持有 IM2505 多单、买入 1 手 MO2506-C-5900 看涨期权同时卖出 2 手 MO2506-P-5200 看跌期权组合 核心逻辑： 中期观点：高位震荡 参考策略：观望 1.中央政治局会议强调底线思维 财政政策重点在于存量落地。货币政策上提到将 创设新的工具。会议明确了决策层坚决维护资本市场稳定的决心，后续权益市场整体下行风 险可控，叠加业绩披露期结束后进入真空期，在经济整体稳定、流动性充裕背景下，市场风 险偏好有望持续提升。 2.产业方面，中央政治局就加强人工智能发展和监管进行第二十次集体学习，对高端芯 片、基础软件、算力基建、数据资源等构建自主可控的人工智能基础软硬件系统做出部署， 从政策角度来看，继续重点关注科技自主可控，国产替代，算力、数据要素等产业体系，IC、 IM 或保持相对强势。 3.中美贸易博弈延续，短期不确定性依然较高，风险资产抛压情绪持续扰动 A 股市场。 国债期货 中期观点：蓄力上涨 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日 ...

2025.04. 30 高平聚能资本基金经理谢爱民认为，市场情绪迷茫之际，中国科技逆向前行，四月事件扰动及财报压 力释放后，五月份大概率将再现科技股领涨亮点，行业将呈现出加速发展的热情。 微信编辑 | 生产队的驴（不午休版） 推荐阅读 多地宣布发钱奖励结婚！ 作者 | 第一财经 截至午盘， 上证指数报3283.97点，跌0.08%，深成指报9921.88点，涨0.73%，创业板指报 1951.43点，涨1.01%。 AI应用、算力、华为鸿蒙、消费电子、人形机器人、半导体、新能源车题 材活跃，银行、电力股出现调整。 机构观点 东方证券投顾汪啸骅认为，外部扰动阶段性缓和，全球风险资产或迎反弹。多数资金仍有观察政策刺 激和交易科技突破意愿。5月行情或先上后下，关注后续债市融资过程中货币政策配合节奏。板块结 构上需关注科技自主可控及消费领域刺激力度，服务业领域传媒和旅游等方向仍有较好改善空间。 ...