Core Viewpoint - A silent currency war has begun, highlighting the clash between national sovereignty and the borderless nature of cryptocurrencies in the new frontier of digital finance [1] Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Digital Currency - Trump's Bitcoin reserves and altcoin inventory aim to provide the U.S. with a decentralized advantage [2] - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policies are a strategic response to a $35 trillion debt crisis, with federal debt projected to reach 125% of GDP by the end of 2024 [6] - The establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and the removal of regulations limiting banks' participation in the crypto market are intended to enhance market liquidity [6][8] Group 2: Global Developments in Digital Currency - Dominica has legislated seven tokens from the TRON ecosystem as legal digital currencies, creating a basket currency system to mitigate market volatility [10] - The European Union is accelerating the development of a digital euro to counter concerns over U.S. stablecoins threatening its monetary sovereignty [10] - Hong Kong aims to establish itself as an "international virtual asset center," while the Central African Republic faces challenges with its national digital currency [10] Group 3: Technological Integration and Challenges - Emerging crypto wallets are crucial for bridging the gap between fiat and crypto assets, enhancing security and facilitating transactions [13] - The volatility of cryptocurrencies poses significant challenges for fiscal management, as seen with Bitcoin's price fluctuations [14] - Regulatory gaps are widening, with the U.S. prohibiting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) while the EU expands its digital euro system [14] Group 4: Future of Currency and Financial Regulation - The future currency landscape may consist of a three-tier structure: state-backed digital currencies, cryptocurrencies as value reserves, and stablecoins facilitating cross-border transactions [16] - The push for digital currencies will lead to a more diversified monetary system, with potential implications for international currency competition [18] - Financial regulation will face new challenges, requiring a balance between innovation and risk management in the evolving digital economy [19]

根据欧洲央行发布的公告，在评估了从通胀到央行立法等一系列指标的进展后，保加利亚已达到从2026 年1月1日起采用欧元的所有标准。 "这一积极评估为保加利亚在2026年1月1日引入欧元铺平了道路，保加利亚将成为第21个加入欧元区的 欧盟成员国。"欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩表示。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，保加利亚距离欧元成为其正式货币又近了一步。加入欧元区后，保加利 亚的经济将更加强劲，融资渠道也将更加畅通。 当地时间6月4日，欧洲央行正式批准保加利亚使用欧元的申请。保加利亚成为欧元区第21个成员国。 保加利亚最早将于2026年1月1日起使用欧元，这成为了欧元区一个重要的里程碑。 根据经济趋同标准，加入欧元区的国家必须在四个方面同时满足要求，分别是：价格稳定标准、公共财 政标准、汇率标准以及长期利率标准。 1992年，欧盟首脑会议在荷兰马斯特里赫特签署了《马斯特里赫特条约》，决定在1999年1月1日开始实 行单一货币欧元和在实行欧元的国家实施统一货币政策。2002年1月1日，欧元开始以现金形式正式流 通，并在同年7月成为欧元区唯一合法货币。 根据欧盟委员会发布的春季经济预测，预计2025年欧元区经济将增长0.9 ...

也要看到，若美元信用体系短时间内出现剧烈动荡，其连锁反应将远超金融领域。全球供应链可能因支 付结算受阻而断裂，大宗商品定价权将面临重新争夺，国际贸易规则体系或将陷入碎片化。历史经验表 明，货币体系的突变往往伴随主权债务危机与资本流动的剧烈震荡，新兴市场在应对此类冲击时尤其脆 弱。即便美元地位衰落，短期内也难以形成稳定的替代机制，全球可能陷入货币竞相贬值与政策冲突加 剧的困境。 面对潜在危机，国际社会正通过多层次机制探索应对路径。国际货币基金组织推进多年的特别提款权分 配改革，有利于增强新兴经济体的流动性支持能力。区域性清算系统的完善，如东盟本币结算框架和非 洲自贸区支付网络，有助于降低对美元的依赖程度。数字货币领域的跨国合作也不断取得进展，多边央 行数字货币桥的试点项目为跨境支付提供了新范式。这些努力或许不会立即扭转美元主导地位，但为构 建更具韧性的国际货币体系拓展了新空间。 美元信用面临的危机暴露出全球金融体系的深层矛盾：如拥有国际储备货币地位的国家责任与权利的不 匹配，主权债务货币化与金融全球化之间失衡，短期投机资本与长期价值投资的冲突等。因此，需要加 快推进有关国家财政纪律重建、货币权力制衡、技术创新协 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum among various countries, particularly in Asia, driven by factors such as trade agreements and increased investment in alternative assets like gold and digital currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Indicators of De-dollarization - A recent study by Forex Complex identified three main indicators of de-dollarization: the decreasing share of the dollar in national reserves, the increasing share of gold, and the growing use of alternative currencies in bilateral trade [3]. - Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Japan are leading the efforts in de-dollarization, indicating a systematic shift away from reliance on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Regional Developments - ASEAN has established an agreement prioritizing local currency transactions to mitigate risks associated with U.S. monetary policy changes and trade restrictions [3]. - Indonesia has reported that approximately 15% of its trade with China and Japan is conducted using alternative currencies, including the use of the Indonesian rupiah for transactions with Japan [3]. Group 3: Impact of the Pandemic - The trend towards reducing dependence on the dollar has become particularly pronounced following the COVID-19 pandemic, as many Asian countries seek to lessen their reliance on a dollar-denominated financial system [5]. - The rise of the Chinese yuan is notable, with China establishing closer ties with ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries through yuan-denominated trade [5]. Group 4: Current Currency Shares - As of March, the yuan accounted for approximately 4.1% of global payment shares, significantly lower than the dollar's 49%, but its growth potential is considerable given China's economic size and growth prospects [5].

我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其是 7 月以后。财政政策有希望继续边际加码。同时下半年 或进一步全面降息。 风险提示： 国际方面，特朗普贸易政策反复变化、美联储降息幅度低于预期、市场对美国财政不可持续 的担忧再次发酵；国内方面，地产尾部风险上升、居民资产负债表修复进度不及预期。 文章来源 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任 下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因 素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维 度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 本文摘自：2025年5月30日发布的 全球变局：锚定"确定性"——2025年中期宏观经济展望 梁中华 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040019 汪 浩 ，资格证书编号： S0880521120002 黄汝南 ，资格证书编 号： S0880523080001 应镓娴 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040060 李林芷 ，资格证书编号： S ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, surpassing the 7.17 mark, is attributed to various factors including economic fundamentals, capital flows, and market sentiment, despite the backdrop of US tariffs [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - The RMB's appreciation is surprising given the economic growth slowdown in China, but the country's economic fundamentals are reportedly stronger than those of developed nations, with optimistic growth forecasts from the World Bank and IMF [2][3] - The RMB's stability is supported by ongoing institutional reforms and the potential of domestic demand, alongside significant technological innovations [2] Group 2: Capital Flows - The decline of the US dollar's dominance is influenced by the changing global economic landscape, with foreign investors increasingly recognizing the value of Chinese assets, leading to substantial capital inflows into China [3] - The RMB's strengthening is partly due to a shift in investor sentiment towards Chinese assets, as many are looking to "bottom-fish" after a period of adjustment [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The current RMB strength may signal the beginning of a new global monetary system, as the US dollar faces challenges from its politicization and increasing national debt [4] - There is a growing consensus among global investors to diversify away from the dollar, with the RMB emerging as a stable alternative for reserves and transactions, particularly in new commodity pricing and cross-border payment systems [4]

欧洲央行行长拉加德在柏林一场论坛上发表演讲，表示当前以美元为基础的国际货币体系正在变得不确 定，欧洲需要从多方面进行改革，以减少其在国际秩序变化中受到的影响。拉加德说，美元在全球外汇 储备中的比例为58%，这一比例达到了1994年以来，30多年来的最低水平。与此同时，各国央行一直在 以创纪录的速度储备黄金。(央视新闻) ...

那就是在过去中国是美元体系的支柱之一，而当下，中国则逐渐开始从美元体系中撤出，而外加此次中美关税战中，中国的表现，可以说，时代的脚步已经 不远了。 从曾经的第一，到后来的第二，当下却罕见地成为了全球第三。可以说，在美债市场，中国做出了重大改变。而此次中国减持189亿美元和中国此次成为全 球第三来说，这次的排名是非常罕见的，而且这更是对全球释放了一个巨大的信号。 罕见！25年来第一次 罕见，25年来第一次。可以说，这个时间点就非常的耐人寻味，如果放长远，其实看到的是中国不断增持美债，不断从后边冲到了第一，而当下却降低到了 第三，这对于美国以及全球来说，意义重大。 为何说意义重大呢？因为在过去，美国一直说，自己的美元是石油美元，其实石油美元只是美国的一条大腿，而另外一条大腿则是，中国的商品。中国大量 的商品为美元背书，降低美国的通胀，而中国赚取的大量美元却选择投资美国债市。 最后的结果就是，美国只需要发债借钱就行，而中国则是负责将美元扩散到全世界，同时大量地储备美元，输出商品，从而平息美国发债带来的通胀。 可以说，这是过去中美一直维持的局面。但是当下却不同了，因为中国从第一大债权国变成了第三大，这就意味着，中国开 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's large economic market, resilient industrial chain, and broad application scenarios enable it to withstand external shocks and maintain high-quality growth, making it an attractive destination for investment [1] - China's economic resilience is attributed to three main factors: the enduring and adaptable nature of Chinese civilization, the flexibility and policy elasticity of the Chinese system, and the prudent approach of the Chinese people, which avoids extremism [1] - The global economy is currently facing pressure from the U.S. protectionist policies, which also affect China, particularly through restrictions on advanced computing chips [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government's actions, such as technology blockades and trade wars, aim to limit China's development, but ultimately cannot prevent China's self-reliance and strength [3] - The U.S. has a psychological understanding of China that has evolved from neglect and denial to vilification, and eventually to a forced acceptance of China's high-quality development, leading to a strategy of "if you cannot beat them, then join them" [3] - Potential breakthrough areas for future China-U.S. cooperation include nuclear arms control, reform of the monetary system, and addressing the fentanyl crisis [4]

Group 1 - The global economic and trade environment is undergoing profound changes, with increasing uncertainty due to high tariffs and rising protectionism, which suppresses corporate investment decisions and innovation [4][5] - The restructuring of the international trade and investment system creates new development opportunities for global South countries, as they can attract more trade and investment due to their competitive advantages in lower costs and tariffs [4][5] - The importance of enhancing domestic circulation in China is emphasized, with suggestions to break down barriers in the unified market, evaluate macro policies effectively, and support the development of the private economy [8][6] Group 2 - The need for China to increase fiscal spending and social security to stimulate domestic demand and achieve economic rebalancing is highlighted [7][6] - The diversification of the global monetary system is anticipated, with more currencies from emerging markets participating in international transactions and an increased focus on digital currencies for cross-border trade [9]