Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with a GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and effective financial measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets [1]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain reasonable growth in money and credit by utilizing various monetary policy tools, ensuring ample liquidity to meet the effective credit demands of the real economy [2]. - The PBOC plans to lower social financing costs by reducing policy interest rates and other related rates, thereby supporting the overall financing environment [2]. - There will be increased support for major strategic areas and weak links, with specific allocations such as 300 billion yuan for technology innovation and agricultural loans, and 500 billion yuan for consumer and elderly care loans [2]. - The PBOC will ensure the stability of the exchange rate, allowing the market to play a decisive role in its formation while maintaining the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [2]. Economic Indicators - By the end of 2025, the total social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) are projected to grow by 8.3% and 8.5% respectively, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - The growth rate of loans, after adjusting for local government debt impacts, is expected to be around 7%, indicating strong credit support [3]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are projected to be around 3.1% [3]. - Various loan categories, including technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital economy loans, are expected to see double-digit growth rates, with technology loans growing by 11.5% and green loans by 20.2% [3]. External Economic Environment - The global economic landscape is facing challenges such as insufficient growth momentum, increased trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies, leading to uncertainties in inflation and monetary policy adjustments [4]. - Despite these challenges, China's economic foundation remains strong, with advantages and resilience that support long-term positive trends [4]. Future Policy Directions - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be a flexible approach to using various policy tools to maintain liquidity and support balanced credit distribution, aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [5]. - The PBOC aims to enhance its macro-prudential management and financial stability frameworks to prevent systemic financial risks [6].

央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。 继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具， 保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总 水平预期目标相匹配。 继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行 情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融 总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。进一步完善利率调控框架，强 化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，促 进社会综合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，有效落实好各 类结 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价 合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的 力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽 松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配。进一步完善利率调控框架，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机 制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，促进社会综合融 资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双 重功能，有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科技创 新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial system in Shaanxi Province is set to implement a moderately loose monetary policy by 2025, aiming to optimize both the total volume and structure of financing, enhance cross-border financial vitality, and support stable economic growth and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Financial Indicators - By the end of 2025, the balance of RMB loans in Shaanxi is projected to reach 6.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.68%, surpassing the national average by 0.28 percentage points [1] - The total balance of RMB deposits is expected to be 7.68 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.97%, and an increase of 500.463 billion yuan [1] - The social financing scale is anticipated to increase by 536 billion yuan, with direct financing playing a significant role, as enterprises are expected to issue 179.32 billion yuan in non-financial corporate debt financing tools [1] Group 2: Loan Structure and Support - The loan allocation continues to improve, with growth rates for loans to manufacturing, inclusive small and micro enterprises, green projects, and technology-driven companies exceeding the average loan growth rate [2] - By the end of 2025, the balances of loans for technology, green projects, and inclusive small and micro enterprises are projected to reach 8.79 trillion yuan, 8.61 trillion yuan, and 6.39 trillion yuan respectively [2] - The balance of agricultural loans in both RMB and foreign currencies is expected to be 9.846 trillion yuan, with significant growth in sectors like mining and leasing services [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Financial Activities - The total scale of cross-border receipts and payments is projected to reach 57.843 billion USD by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.49% and a net inflow of 2.969 billion USD [3] - The use of RMB in cross-border transactions is expected to grow rapidly, with a payment scale of 145.149 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.26% [3] - Shaanxi's free trade zone is advancing financial reform and innovation, including the establishment of pilot applications for cross-border financial service platforms [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1][4][7] - The shift from a "steady" monetary policy to a "moderately loose" stance reflects the need for targeted and flexible regulation in response to increasing external pressures and internal difficulties [2][3] - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures such as lowering the reverse repo rate by 0.1 percentage points and the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market to support the real economy [3][4] Group 2 - In 2025, China's GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, but quarterly growth rates showed a declining trend, indicating increasing pressure on economic stability [4][5] - The consumer price index (CPI) has remained below 1% since March 2023, and the producer price index (PPI) has been in negative growth since October 2022, highlighting issues of insufficient effective demand and structural challenges [4][5] - The Central Economic Work Conference identifies the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the importance of monetary policy in guiding price levels back to reasonable ranges [4][10] Group 3 - The need for innovative and improved policy tools is highlighted, with a focus on enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to achieve effective economic growth [7][9] - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy is expected, with an increase in fiscal spending to support key tasks such as expanding domestic demand [9][10] - The importance of aligning various economic policies and ensuring consistency in macro policy orientation is emphasized to promote reasonable price recovery and address structural issues in the economy [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, marking a new requirement for monetary policy in response to changing internal and external environments [1][4]. - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy reflects continuity and stability in policy, enhancing the targeting and flexibility of economic regulation amid increasing external pressures and internal difficulties [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China has taken measures such as lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1 percentage points and the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to support the real economy [2]. Group 2 - In 2025, China's GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, but quarterly growth rates showed a declining trend, indicating increasing pressure on stable economic operation [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained below 1% since March 2023, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative growth since October 2022, reflecting insufficient effective demand and other structural challenges [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference identified the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the importance of monetary policy in guiding price levels back to reasonable ranges [4][6]. Group 3 - The need for innovative and improved policy tools and methods is highlighted, along with the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to achieve effective macroeconomic governance [6][8]. - The government plans to increase fiscal spending in 2026 to support key tasks such as expanding domestic demand, while ensuring that fiscal policies are effectively transmitted to the real economy [8]. - There is a focus on enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery, addressing both demand insufficiency and structural issues [9].

会议要求，认真落实适度宽松的货币政策。灵活运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕和 社会融资条件相对宽松，推动社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹 配，保持贷款总量稳定和质的有效提升。合理确定存贷款利率，自觉避免"内卷式"竞争，共同维护市场 竞争秩序。继续深入开展明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作。充分用好民营企业再贷款等各类结构性货币 政策工具，畅通传导激励路径，持续优化信贷结构，提高金融服务实体经济质效。 北京商报讯（记者 董晗萱）2月6日，据人民银行北京市分行官微，人民银行北京市分行召开2026年北 京辖区金融管理工作通报会。 ...

来源：中国人民银行北京市分行 2月5日，中国人民银行北京市分行召开2026年北京辖区金融管理工作通报会。会议深入学习贯彻党的二 十大、二十届历次全会和中央经济工作会议精神，传达2026年中国人民银行工作会议、全国外汇管理工 作会议精神，切实落实北京市委十三届八次全会和北京市"两会"精神等有关要求，总结2025年辖区金融 工作情况，分析当前经济金融形势，提出2026年工作要求。人民银行北京市分行党委书记、行长巢克俭 出席会议并讲话，党委委员、副行长、外汇局北京市分局副局长周军明就外汇管理工作提出要求，党委 委员、副行长袁新峰主持会议。 会议指出 2025年，人民银行北京市分行携手金融监管部门，与各金融机构一道，提高站位、担当作为，认真落实 适度宽松的货币政策，推动一揽子增量金融政策在京落地生效，首都金融"五篇大文章"统筹推进有力有 效，科创、绿色等重点领域融资规模居全国前列，人民币跨境结算提质增效，境外来华人员支付便利化 持续创新引领，金融改革开放和金融服务亮点纷呈，坚决守牢金融安全底线。 会议强调 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，开好局、起好步对做好下阶段工作至关重要、意义重大。当前，战略机遇 和风险挑战并存 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.460 | 105.910 | 105.940 | 108.320 | 108.325 | 112.17 | 112.31 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.398 | 102.424 | 105.850 | 105.895 | 108.240 | 108.240 | 111.7 | 111.78 | | | 涨跌 | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0.060 | 0.045 | 0.080 | 0.085 | 0.470 | 0.530 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.04% | 0.0 ...

加力逆周期调节要求，推动金融总量稳健增长。该行建立健全季度分析研究机制，印发2025年货币信贷工作指导意见，综合运用现场调研、分 析座谈等举措，推动引导信贷合理增长和资金使用效率提升。同时，落实降准政策要求，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，阶段性将汽车金融 公司、金融租赁公司存款准备金率从5%调降至零，两项降准政策惠及全市15家法人金融机构，释放长期流动性资金78亿元。2025年，全年社 会融资规模增量5384亿元，创有统计以来新高。 天津北方网讯：2月5日，记者从中国人民银行天津市分行获悉，2025年该行协同发力，创造性落实适度宽松的货币政策，通过一系列精准举 措，为天津经济高质量发展营造了良好货币金融环境。 货币政策处处长孔蕊介绍，该行重点从三方面发力，推动政策落地见效。 孔蕊介绍，中国人民银行近日出台了一揽子增量货币政策措施，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率，完善结构性工具并加大支持力度。下一 步，中国人民银行天津市分行将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，着力加大跨周期和逆周期调节力度，推动信贷总量平稳增长、结构持续优化、价格 低位运行、政策资金质效提升，为天津实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。 （津云新闻 ...