在最新公布的利率决议落地后，贵金属市场迅速上演反转行情。GTC泽汇表示，金价在美东时间下午2 点宣布降息25个基点后，立即结束早盘回调，在随后一小时内快速拉升35美元，冲上4268美元高点。虽 然此后有所回落，但价格仍保持在4250美元上方，最新报价4257美元，日内上涨0.49%。这一走势说 明，金市对政策预期变化反应高度灵敏，尤其是在实际利率路径进入方向未明的阶段，参与者倾向提前 调整仓位。 白银市场的强度更为显著。决议前的轻微承压未能阻挡资金流入，公告公布后白银迅速拉升1.35美元， 突破62美元关口，刷新纪录至62.20美元，涨幅1.67%。GTC泽汇表示，白银的动能延续不仅源于避险需 求，还和其兼具工业属性、在周期性预期改善背景下受到更多增量资金青睐有关。此外，金银比进一步 压缩至68.39，逐步接近GTC泽汇所设定的62–65关键区，意味着市场正在重新定价两者的相对价值。如 果该比值触及目标区间，白银的连续性上涨可能暂时进入调整阶段，但整体趋势仍保持向上结构。 政策影响：收益率与贵金属的敏感联动 本次降息虽在预期范围内，但其对短期实际利率与美元指数的影响引发了贵金属的强烈反馈。GTC泽汇 认为，降 ...

美联储降息利好兑现，贵金属市场应声冲高。 现货白银今日一举突破62美元/盎司，再度刷新历史纪录；现货黄金盘中触及4240美元/盎司高位，随后 有所回落。 截至发稿，现货白银报62美元/盎司，涨幅0.35%。现货黄金跌0.27%，报4217.2美元/盎司。 此外，加拿大皇家银行认为未来两年黄金仍有上涨空间，指出央行购金和投资需求从根本上强化了黄金 作为"非主权资产"的价值，最新预期2026年平均金价为4600美元/盎司，到2026年年末金价将达到4800 美元/盎司，2027年平均金价为5100美元/盎司。 美联储如期降息 此次贵金属价格上涨的核心驱动力在于美联储降息。宽松的货币环境显著提升了贵金属的资产配置价 值，叠加市场避险情绪的持续推动，共同促成了黄金、白银价格走高。 当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布再次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至 3.75%之间，这是美联储继今年以来的第三次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的讲话中提到，当前政策利率已处于"中性利率"区间的上端（即接近既非刺激 也非抑制经济的水平），并暗示明年1月可能暂时保持利率不变。 中金公司指出，鉴于经济与就业仍面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has officially entered the $60 era, with COMEX silver futures breaking through the $60/oz mark and reaching a high of $62.14/oz, while spot silver hit a record of $61.6/oz, reflecting a significant increase in demand and speculation in the market [1][2]. Price Movement - As of December 10, COMEX silver futures have accumulated a rise of over 109% year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold's 60% increase during the same period, indicating a strong bullish trend in the silver market [1]. - The Shanghai silver futures price has also seen a cumulative increase of 24%, surpassing 14,419 yuan/kg [2]. Market Dynamics - Speculative funds have heavily entered the market, contributing to the strong performance of silver, while exchanges have raised margin requirements and price limits to manage volatility [3]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to two main factors: the inclusion of silver in the U.S. critical minerals list and an increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from 40% to 95% [3]. Supply and Inventory - Global silver inventories have significantly decreased, with COMEX silver inventory dropping from 16,500 tons to 14,200 tons in two months, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - As of the end of November, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was at 559 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange inventory was at 716 tons, both at near 10-year lows [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the silver price may continue to rise due to ongoing supply tightness and potential trade policy restrictions, which could allow silver to outperform gold [4]. - However, there is a need to monitor the delivery situation of COMEX silver in December and changes in inventory levels, as any easing of supply constraints could lead to significant price volatility [4]. - Standard Chartered Bank notes that while leasing rates remain high, they have decreased from October levels, and the increase in available inventory in London suggests that market tightness is easing, potentially leading to high-level fluctuations in silver prices [5].

来源：@央视财经微博 【#金银比跌破70##光伏电车都在抢白银#】今日开盘，沪银主力合约延续强势行情，高开高走，盘中最 高触及每千克14419元。截至收盘报每千克14373元，涨幅为5.44％，收盘价再创历史新高。白银的供需 缺口也在推动银价的上涨，光伏、新能源汽车等行业对白银的需求正逐步增加。作为具有投资属性的贵 金属，白银年内涨幅已超过110％，远超黄金。"金银比"，也就是"金价与银价的比值"从年内高点的105 左右降至70以下，投资风险正在累积。#银价已暴涨110%# ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have recently surged above $60 per ounce, significantly outperforming most commodities, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [1][4] Market Trends - RadexMarkets indicates that while silver's upward trend is supported by solid fundamentals, short-term price corrections may occur as traditional market dynamics normalize [1][4] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 69, indicating a low level not seen in recent years, suggesting silver's strong performance relative to gold [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since late August, multiple factors have contributed to silver's strong momentum, including temporary supply chain tensions, robust industrial demand, and renewed investor interest [2][4] - London’s main silver inventory has increased by 1,447 tons year-to-date, while Comex inventory has risen by 4,311 tons, with the inventory ratio reaching 1.91, a recent high [2][4] ETF and Market Liquidity - The silver market is currently influenced by the flow of funds into silver ETPs, with November seeing an inflow of 487 tons and December adding another 475 tons, marking the largest inflow since 2020 [2][4] - Although liquidity has improved, it remains tight due to a portion of inventory being held in physical silver ETPs [2][4] Technical Analysis - From a gold-silver ratio perspective, there is still room for silver to rise, but slight signs of overbought conditions suggest a potential short-term technical correction [3][5] - RadexMarkets maintains a positive long-term outlook for silver, but anticipates increased price volatility due to market focus on key metal supply assessment reports and regional supply-demand tensions [5]

中新经纬 . 中新经纬是由中国新闻社主办的财经新媒体，拥有中国互联网新闻信息采编发布服务资质。以手机客户端（APP）等为主要传播平台，以"权威、前瞻、 专业、亲和"为特色宗旨，传播财经资讯、解读经济政策、讲述商界故事，打造精英的财经资讯平台。 以下文章来源于中新经纬 ，作者李自曼 今年以来贵金属涨跌情况 截图自Wind 白银涨幅超黄金 Wind数据显示，2025年10月20日，现货黄金达到4381.29美元/盎司，创历史最高，此后一度回落至4000美元/盎司以下。近期，现货黄金价格在4200美元/ 盎司上下浮动。 白银涨幅超黄金。 文 ｜ 李自曼 编辑 ｜ 李晓萱 来源｜ 中新经纬（ID：jwview） 封面来源 ｜ I C photo 9日纽约交易时段，现货白银价格突破60美元/盎司关口，盘中价格一度冲高至60.83美元/盎司，创下历史新高。最终报收60.65美元/盎司，单日涨幅达 4.4%。 Wind显示，截至北京时间10日发稿前，现货白银价格年内涨幅超110%，现货黄金价格年内涨幅超60%。现货白银价格涨幅显著高于现货黄金，到底是何 原因？ | | | | 交易品种 | | | | | | --- | ...

自银:金银比的主跌浪 点有成金 行情简述: 刻踪 | 信号承诺 2025年12月10日，自银期现货价格再创历史新高，国内站上14300元每公斤，Comex自银再破60美元每盎司大关。与此同时引人注目的一点 是，内外黄金价格几乎一动不动，仍然维持在此前的950元每克的水平上，自银本轮价格的异动为明显的独立行情，其价格驱动从上半年的跟随金 价，逐步切换到下半年的金银比驱动，金银比从4月最高的100以上目前已经跌破70，也就是说，同期自银相对于黄金的超额涨幅已经超过30%。 短期驱动来看，昨天夜盘时间10点30分，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特谈美联储降息幅度，称：需要静观其变。美联储有大量降息空 间。 (被问及是否存在降息超过25个基点的空间）回答是那样的。 市场总体解读为其作为大概率的下一任主席，给出较为宽松的流动性预期。 从金银比的角度来看，贯穿全年的金银比，在今年的主题是Taco，即每次市场捕捉到风险偏好改善，流动性倾向于宽松,以及意外关税、目债美 债吃紧带来的流动性冲击减缓，则白银走强。历史上金银比长期作为国际商品资金的重要宏观交易工具，一般而言，市场风险偏好走强、经济前景 好、流动性扩张、通胀倾向强的 ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly, surpassing $60 per ounce, marking a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 110%, compared to gold's 60% rise [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - On October 9, silver prices reached $60.83 per ounce during trading, closing at $60.65, reflecting a daily increase of 4.4% [1] - Year-to-date, silver has outperformed gold, with silver's price increase being more than double that of gold [1][2] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes, with a potential interest rate cut anticipated in early 2026, leading to a decline in real interest rates [2][3] 2. Increased industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector and AI-related industries, which has driven up orders for silver [2][3] 3. Supply constraints from key mining regions, raising concerns about future silver supply [3][4] Group 3: Investment Behavior - The rising silver prices have led to increased interest in silver investments, although many investors are cautious due to high prices [5] - The current high recovery price for silver, which is significantly higher than gold, has led to a higher loss rate for silver when reselling [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The divergence in performance between gold and silver is attributed to their differing market drivers, with silver benefiting from industrial demand and supply disruptions, while gold's price has stabilized due to already priced-in geopolitical risks [4][6] - The current market structure for silver, including high ETF holdings and speculative positions, may amplify price volatility [7]

Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - The market sentiment is described as misleading, with the Federal Reserve previously indicating three rate cuts this year, which has led to confusion among investors [21] - Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to nearly 90%, reflecting a shift in market expectations [19][21] - Investors are advised to consider their strategies during the period between the anticipated December rate cut and a potential subsequent cut in April [21] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 80 to 72, marking the lowest level since August 2021, with a cumulative decline of 20.7% this year [18] - As of October 28, net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 14.7%, while silver saw a 22.4% rise in net long positions [4] - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market indicates a strong demand for physical metals, despite fluctuations in futures positions [11] Investment Trends in Commodities - There has been a notable increase in long positions for copper, contrasting with a reduction in long positions for precious metals [4][9] - The U.S. government has made strategic investments in companies related to critical materials, such as rare earth elements, which may influence market dynamics [13] - The performance of North American gold mining stocks has lagged behind physical gold, with a ratio of 13.178X as of the latest data, indicating a potential opportunity for investors [15] Economic Outlook and Commodity Investments - The outlook for the global economy suggests a potential downturn, with expectations that the economy will perform worse next year compared to this year [24] - The ongoing bull market in commodities is highlighted, with a focus on the importance of recognizing market trends and potential peaks [21][22] - The future of gold prices is linked to the Federal Reserve's actions and broader economic conditions, with indications that gold may continue to appreciate [22][24]

摘要近期白银价格如火箭般蹿升，周二(12月9日)一举突破60美元/盎司大关，单日涨幅超过4%，年内累 计涨幅已超过100%。周三(12月10日)现货白银延续涨势，站上61美元/盎司，一度刷新历史高点至61.45 美元/盎司，正式宣告白银进入"60美元时代"，国内沪银期货价格延续强势，继续攀升高位，沪银期货 主力合约最高触及14388元/千克。 2025年11月，全球白银ETP持仓激增487吨，12月前十天又增加475吨，创下2020年以来最猛烈的资金流 入纪录。 近期白银价格如火箭般蹿升，周二(12月9日)一举突破60美元/盎司大关，单日涨幅超过4%，年内累计涨 幅已超过100%。周三(12月10日)现货白银延续涨势，站上61美元/盎司，一度刷新历史高点至61.45美元/ 盎司，正式宣告白银进入"60美元时代"，国内沪银期货价格延续强势，继续攀升高位，沪银期货主力合 约最高触及14388元/千克。 截至北京时间11:57，现货白银最新报60.91美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%；COMEX白银期货主力最新报61.42 美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%。 首先，全球供应链瓶颈虽有所缓解，但仍未彻底解决；其次，光伏、新能源汽 ...