国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示，7月份，受制造业进入传统生产 淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.3%，比上月下降 0.4个百分点。非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4个和0.5 个百分点，均持续高于临界点。国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，我国经济总体产出 保持扩张。 7月份，我国多地遭遇高温热浪、暴雨洪涝以及干旱等极端天气，给户外施工作业、居民日常生活等带 来阻碍，进而影响到市场需求释放。制造业新订单指数为49.4%，较上月下降0.8个百分点。生产指数为 50.5%，虽较上月下降0.5个百分点，仍连续3个月运行在扩张区间。中国物流信息中心专家文韬认为， 虽然制造业生产活动扩张势头短期有所放缓，但稳中有增态势没有改变。 新动能持续增长。7月份，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点， 高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为 48%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 ...

7 月份，制造业 PMI 为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。非制造业商务活动 指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点。铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等 行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间。制造业和非制造业从业人员指数比上月均略有上升， 提示企业用工景气度略有回升。 制造业PMI指数中主要原材料购进价格、出厂价格指数快速走高。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为， 主要原因是近期反内卷牵动市场预期。 7月31日，国家统计局公布7月中国采购经理指数（PMI）运行情况。 7月，制造业PMI指数中两个价格指数快速走高。主要原材料购进价格指数为51.5%，较上月上升3.1个 百分点，重回景气区间。出厂价格指数为48.3%，虽然仍处收缩区间，但较前值回升2.1个百分点。 王青认为，两个价格指数快速走高的主要原因是近期反内卷牵动市场预期，国内主导的煤炭、钢铁等大 宗商品价格快速上冲。另外，受此影响，7月高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气 度有所改善。 杨畅分析，从业人员指数为48.0%（前值47.9%），较上月回升0.1个百分点，仍在景 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[6][28] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is greater than the average drop of 0.1 percentage points since 2017[7][28] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March[7][18] Group 2: Sector Performance - The production index in July remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a 0.5 percentage point decline[2][13] - The new orders index fell into the contraction zone, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%[2][14] - High-energy-consuming industries, particularly the steel sector, saw a PMI increase of 4.6 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone at 48%[18][21] Group 3: Investment and Demand Trends - Investment demand weakened significantly in July, contrasting with the strong performance of high-energy-consuming industries[21] - The construction PMI dropped by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with new orders falling sharply to 42.7%[21][42] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 51.6%[21] Group 4: Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of "anti-involution" policies, particularly focusing on mid- and downstream sectors[23] - The report suggests that the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stimulating domestic demand will be crucial for future manufacturing performance[23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - A-share major indices collectively declined significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,600 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased notably. Most industry sectors dropped, with the steel, non-ferrous metals, and real estate sectors weakening substantially. [3] - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also decreased from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment negatively affected market sentiment. [3] - China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. [3] - The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of China's three major PMI indices in July indicated that economic recovery still faced challenges. After the Politburo meeting, without unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub-main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped to 4,057.0, down 73.2; the IH main contract (2509) fell to 2,777.0, down 40.6; the IC main contract (2509) decreased to 6,124.0, down 85.8; the IM main contract (2509) dropped to 6,538.0, down 58.2. [2] - There were changes in the spreads between different contracts. For instance, the IF - IH current month contract spread decreased to 1,293.0, down 32.6; the IC - IF current month contract spread dropped to 2,117.0, down 7.2. [2] Futures Position Holdings - The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 401.0 to -24,341.00, while those in IH decreased by 729.0 to -15,476.00, IC decreased by 1,765.0 to -12,414.00, and IM decreased by 56.0 to -37,444.00. [2] Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The basis of the IF main contract decreased to -18.6, down 3.8; the basis of the IH main contract increased to 1.0, up 0.4; the basis of the IC main contract decreased to -102.3, down 3.1; the basis of the IM main contract decreased to -123.2, down 8.9. [2] Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume reached 19,618.49 billion yuan, up 908.73 billion yuan. Margin trading balance increased by 21.07 billion yuan to 19,847.48 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 57.13 billion yuan to 2,391.44 billion yuan. [2] - The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 19.58%, down 12.04 percentage points. The Shibor increased to 1.392%, up 0.075 percentage points. [2] Industry News - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing the need to continue and strengthen macro - policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks. [2] - China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and agreed to extend the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension and China's counter - measures for 90 days. [2] - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, both remaining above the critical point. [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, so it's recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4] - Some liner companies slightly reduced freight rates in mid - August, and the market is divided on the future spot freight rate trend, with the overall market showing wide - range oscillations and mixed closing prices [4] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3] - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [3] - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% [3] - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [3] Market News - The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1, and the spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [4] - On July 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1460.0, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 41,700 lots and an open interest of 50,700 lots, an increase of 32 lots from the previous day [4] - Israel's cabinet is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip and strengthening the siege of some city centers in the area, and also considering cutting off the power supply to the Gaza Strip [6] - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, with the EU expected to increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products [6] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to partially take profits on the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (which has made a profit of over 300 points). For the EC2512 contract, short positions are recommended with light positions, and it's not advisable to hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5] - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it's recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the tense Red Sea situation, the trade agreement between Europe and the United States, and significant retracement of commodity prices at high levels, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The market is in a state of intense long - short game, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Container Freight Indexes on July 28**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [1]. - **Container Freight Indexes on July 25**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [1]. - **Other Indexes on July 25**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI Indexes on July 25**: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [1]. - **Futures Market on July 28**: The closing price of the 2510 main contract was 1502.8, with a decline of 1.84%, a trading volume of 56,000 lots, and an open interest of 50,700 lots, an increase of 717 lots from the previous day [2]. Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4); the services PMI preliminary value was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7); the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2); the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [1]. - **China in June**: The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - **US in June**: The Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the services PMI preliminary value was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a 2 - month low); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a 2 - month low) [1]. Market Events - The Houthi armed forces will upgrade their maritime blockade operations and launch the fourth - stage maritime blockade, targeting all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports [4]. - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products [4]. Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to partially take profits on the long positions established below 1300 in the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points). For the EC2512 contract, it is recommended to take a light short position and monitor the subsequent market trend [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is dominated by a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limits for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [3]. - The margin requirements for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [3].

周五（7月25日）亚盘时段，欧元/美元保持疲软态势，欧元兑美元昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，除获 利回吐对汇价构成了一定的打压外，美元指数在空头回补和良好经济数据的打压下走软也对欧元构成了 一定的打压。 欧元区与美国PMI指数延续此前分化趋势。欧元区7月综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从6月的50.6升至51，高 于分析师预期的50.7，进一步站稳荣枯线50以上。这一增长主要得益于持续三年的制造业衰退接近尾 声，同时服务业出人意料地加速增长。但欧元兑美元小幅震荡下行。 另一方面，美国7月Markit制造业PMI初值下降至49.5，创2024年12月以来新低，也是去年12月以来的首 次萎缩，大幅不及预期的52.7，前值为52.9。其中，新订单指数初值降低至49.7，创去年12月以来新 低，扭转了之前的扩张趋势。7月Markit服务业PMI初值为55.2，创2024年12月以来新高，好于预期的 53，前值为52.9。其中，就业分项指数初值升至52.6，创1月份以来的新高，连续五个月扩张。Markit综 合PMI初值为54.6，创2024年12月以来新高，好于预期的52.8，前值为52.9。尽管制造业PMI低于50，但 ...

2025 年 07 月 25 日 锌：价格转弱 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 23015 | 0.17% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2860 | 0.23% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 152003 | -21571 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10757 | -2783 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 134935 | -2956 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 188309 | 327 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -15 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -2.77 | 1.46 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨 ...

Group 1 - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3 basis points to 3.914% and 4.43% respectively, while the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.96% [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were reported at 217,000, lower than the previous week by 4,000 and below the expected 227,000 [2] - New home sales in June grew by only 0.6% to 627,000 units, falling short of the expected 645,000 units [2] Group 2 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, marking the first formal visit by a U.S. president in nearly 20 years, during which he expressed a desire for lower interest rates [3][4] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, leading to a significant sell-off in European bonds, with 10-year German bond yields rising by 10.7 basis points to 2.705% [4] - The UK PMI index for July decreased from 52.0 to 51.0, indicating only slight growth in business activity, while UK bond yields saw minor increases [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching 0.844% and the 10-year yield at 1.603% [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the upcoming Friday, but plans to issue a total of $448 billion in bonds on July 28 and 29 [5][6] - The actual net financing needs of the U.S. Treasury for the second quarter reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **July 18 - 21 Changes**: The NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points on July 21, down 5.75% from the previous period; SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [1]. - **July 18 Changes**: SCFI was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, Services PMI was 50 (2 - month high), Composite PMI was 50.2, and Sentix Investor Confidence Index was 0.2 [2]. - **China in June**: Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2]. - **US in June**: Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52, Services PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and Composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market Influences - Trump's tariff policy targeting Southeast Asian countries has increased trading difficulty, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate hikes. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August 1. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and spot freight rate adjustments [3]. - On July 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,700 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, an increase of 549 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300), and consider adding positions if it continues to decline. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [4]. - **Arbitrage**: In the context of international instability, the market has a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term**: Take profit when contracts rise, and wait for the market to stabilize after a decline before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - **Price Limits**: The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - **Intraday Position Limits**: The intraday position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].