Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June increased to 49.7%, marking a rise for two consecutive months, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [1][2] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in market demand [2] - The production index rose to 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, while the purchasing volume index increased significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2% [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, attributed to seasonal declines in consumer travel demand post-holidays [3] - The construction sector showed accelerated expansion with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5] - The second quarter's average non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, consistent with the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts emphasize the need for continued macroeconomic policy support to stimulate growth and address demand shortages in the manufacturing sector [5][6]

Economic Resilience - In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions, supported by a series of proactive policy measures [1] - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI both showed a rebound for two consecutive months in June, indicating a gradual stabilization and improvement in the economy [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a continuous recovery in the economic climate [1] - Production activities in June accelerated despite it being a traditional off-peak season, showing a seasonal anomaly [1] - The purchasing volume index rose significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, while raw material inventory increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48%, the highest level this year [1] - The new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating an overall improvement in market demand [1] Key Industries - The three major industries—equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained good expansion momentum, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [2] - Equipment manufacturing showed particularly active production and demand, driving collaborative development across related industries [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector provided strong support for economic transformation and high-quality development [2] - The consumer goods sector's steady expansion reflected improving consumer confidence and recovering market demand [2] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the sector's climate [2] - The positive trend was supported by government policies and funding guarantees, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds [2] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady expansion, with a business activity index of 50.1%, despite a slight decline due to seasonal factors [3] - Certain service industries, such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance, remained robust with business activity indices above 60% [3] - The service sector's business activity expectations index remained high, reflecting optimism about future market developments [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated significantly in June, focusing on key areas to support economic growth [4] - The first round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions for the year has been fully implemented, alleviating pressure on the banking system and reducing financing costs [4] - The central bank and other departments are expected to introduce more incremental policies to further promote high-quality economic development [4] Real Estate Support - The central and local governments are increasing support for the real estate sector, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and optimizing existing policies [5] - More special bond funds are expected to be allocated to areas such as shantytown renovation and old community upgrades to improve living conditions [5]

Market Performance - Market indexes are at all-time highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading, and a +20% increase from near-term lows in early April 2025 [1] - The Nasdaq has experienced a +17.2% increase in Q2 2025, marking its best performance since Q2 2020 [6] - The Dow is currently -2.7% from all-time highs, but has gained +230 points recently, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also seen increases of +20 and +120 points respectively [6] Economic Indicators - The week is significant for job-related reports, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private-sector payrolls, and the U.S. Employment Report [2] - ADP figures show a low of +37K, with negative monthly changes in Professional/Business Services (-17K), Education/Healthcare (-13K), and Trade/Transportation/Utilities (-4K) [3] - Continuing Jobless Claims reached their highest level in 3.5 years, nearing 2 million for the week [3] Upcoming Reports - Key reports expected this week include final prints on U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI, Construction spending, Factory Orders, and Auto Sales [4] - The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June is anticipated to rise to 43.0 from 40.5, indicating improved business outlooks [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is in a stage of phased recovery of internal and external demand, driving the PMI index to repair upward for two consecutive months [5][11][25]. - In the third quarter, the economic fundamentals still face several pressures, including the potential drag of high - temperature weather on production, the risk of demand decline as the driving force of reduced external uncertainties weakens, and the market's pessimistic outlook on the future fundamentals reflected by the decline of business operation expectations and employment indexes [5][25]. - Whether the existing policies can be implemented faster and whether the Politburo meeting in July can provide new incremental information may be important catalysts to help the bond market break the current volatile pattern [5][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand Repair Drives Strong Production - The demand index rose to the expansion range for the first time since the intensification of trade frictions in March, with the new order index rising 0.4 points, and the increase was greater than that of production, indicating the effect of domestic demand expansion policies and the dual suppression of production by seasonality and unclear demand prospects [3][11]. - The rebound of domestic demand may be mainly driven by national subsidies and the "618" shopping festival, with a fragile structure, and the decline of the employment index also reflects this [11]. - The new export order index's upward slope slowed down significantly, and the export replenishment based on the easing of trade frictions may be nearing the end, and external demand may face a quarterly decline in the second half of the year [3][16]. - High - temperature weather in July - August may further drag down manufacturing production [11][12][13]. 2. Price Index Moderate Repair - The raw material price index and the ex - factory price index increased by 1.5 points respectively compared with the previous month. The rise of the raw material price index may be related to the increased geopolitical risks leading to greater fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the increase in oil prices is transmitted to other raw material prices through transportation costs [4][19]. - The repair of the downstream price index may be related to the temporary suspension of national subsidies in some regions. After the central funds for trade - in are issued in July, the price trend of terminal products needs further attention [4][21]. 3. Strong Recovery in the Construction Industry - The drag of real estate on the construction industry has weakened. The construction industry PMI index rose 1.8 points to 52.8 this month, and the business activity index of housing construction returned to the expansion range [5][22]. - The business activity index of civil engineering construction was 56.7%, down 5.6 points from the previous month, but it has been in the high - prosperity range above 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure is still the main force for the expansion of the construction industry [22]. - After the holiday effect fades, the consumer service industry has a seasonal decline, while the producer service industry is relatively strong [25].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China shows signs of recovery with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7% in June, marking the highest level in three months and indicating a broadening of manufacturing activity [1][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, reflecting strong internal economic momentum [1]. - The production index reached 51.0%, and the new orders index rose to 50.2%, indicating a significant acceleration in manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3]. - The procurement index surged to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting enhanced purchasing willingness among enterprises [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors all recorded PMIs above 50%, indicating continuous expansion for two consecutive months [4]. - The equipment manufacturing sector led with a PMI of 51.4%, while high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors had PMIs of 50.9% and 50.4%, respectively, showcasing robust growth in production and new orders [4]. - The high-energy consumption sector's PMI improved to 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and a shift towards greener practices [5]. Group 3: Enterprise Size Impact - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. - Medium-sized enterprises saw a notable recovery with a PMI of 48.6%, increasing by 1.1 percentage points after two months of weak performance [6]. - The overall business activity index for the non-manufacturing sector was 50.5%, indicating a general acceleration in production and operational activities [6].

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） | 3885.8 | +7.6↑ IF次主力合约（2507） | 3906.4 | +10.8↑ | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2689.0 | +7.2↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 2693.0 | +8.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5768.8 | +20.4↑ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5863.0 | +33.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6148.6 | +29.8↑ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6283.0 | +48.4↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1213.4 | +5.8↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1956.6 | +21.6↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 420.0 | +16.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3170.0 | +27.4↑ | | | IM ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月30日，国家统计局公布6月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.7%、前值49.5%；非制造业PMI为 50.5%、前值50.3%。 却下行至2023年来最低水平（52%）。展望后续，设备更新周期逐步退坡，出口链生产走弱，制造业景 气面临较大下行压力。但近期扩内需政策再加码，5000亿服务消费再贷款、准财政工具（政策性开发性 金融工具）已对服务业投资进行部署，服务消费、基建投资或加快修复，有望对企业和居民预期形成支 撑。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有改善。 制造业：制造业：制造业PMI有所回升，生产、新订单指数延续改善。 6月，制造业PMI边际上行0.2pct 至49.7%。生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.3、0.3pct至51%、50.2%。 核心观点：制造业景气回升，但企业预期降至低位；政策加码下，需关注微观预期的变化。 6月制造业PMI表现好于市场预期，结构上依然是生产指数恢复更好。 6月制造业PMI延续回升，边际上 行0.2pct至49.7%，好于市场预期（WIND，49.3%）。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, but corporate expectations have dropped to a low level; increased policy support is needed to monitor changes in micro expectations [3][6][100] Manufacturing Sector - June manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, exceeding market expectations of 49.3% [2][10] - The production and new orders indices both rose, reaching 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating expansion [3][10] - The new orders index showed slight improvement, with domestic demand orders recovering more than new export orders [22][98] - High-frequency indicators reveal a year-on-year decline in foreign trade cargo volume, indicating reduced export strength [22][98] Industry Analysis - High-energy-consuming industries saw a significant PMI increase, rising 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%, driven by investment and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][28] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also benefited from domestic demand, with PMIs rising to 51.4% and 50.4% respectively [4][28] - Food and beverage, as well as specialized equipment sectors, have maintained production and new order indices in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4][28] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating rapid progress in infrastructure projects [31][99] - The civil engineering PMI reached 56.7%, remaining in a high prosperity range for three consecutive months [31][99] - In contrast, the real estate sector's construction progress appears slower, with weak performance in cement and rebar consumption [31][99] Service Sector - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to the fading effects of holiday consumption [5][42] - Business activity indices in retail, transportation, and hospitality sectors showed varying degrees of decline, reflecting reduced market activity [5][42] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60% [5][42] Future Outlook - There are risks of weakening manufacturing sentiment, necessitating close attention to the impact of incremental policies on domestic demand and changes in corporate expectations [6][100] - Despite the recovery in production and new orders, the corporate expectation index has fallen to its lowest level in 2023 at 52% [6][100] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, may support corporate and consumer expectations [6][100]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to geopolitical conflicts, the shipping market has high trading difficulty. With no significant positive news, the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Market Situation and Strategy - The online quotes have reached a bottleneck, and the market is volatile. If there are short positions, they can be held. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price - support measures. In the absence of more positive news, the market is prone to decline [5]. - On June 26, the main contract 2508 closed at 1759.9, up 1.24%, with a trading volume of 38,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 2043 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. Hold short positions and stop - loss long positions, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.4 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [6]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [6]. 3.5 Geopolitical Events - Since June 13, there have been conflicts between Israel and Iran. The cease - fire agreement between the two countries officially took effect after noon on the 24th. The repeated situation has affected international oil prices and the shipping market. The container transportation price from China to the Middle East has risen, with a single - container increase of about 50% [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that U.S. business activity has slightly slowed down in June due to significant tariffs imposed by the White House on imported goods, leading to increased costs and prices, which may accelerate inflation in the second half of the year [1] - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. Composite PMI output index fell from 53.0 in May to 52.8 in June, suggesting a slowdown in economic output from the private sector [1] - The Services PMI preliminary value decreased from 53.7 in May to 53.1, and the new orders index dropped from 53.0 to 52.3, indicating weakened market demand growth [1] Group 2 - Inflationary pressures have intensified, with manufacturers' input cost pressures rising sharply, as the price index surged to 70.0, the highest since July 2022, up from 64.6 in May [1] - Nearly two-thirds of manufacturers reported rising costs attributed to tariffs, which are being passed on to consumers, keeping the price indicators for goods and services elevated [1] - The manufacturers' price index jumped from 59.7 in May to 64.5, marking the highest level since July 2022 [1] Group 3 - Economists widely expect U.S. inflation rates to soar starting in June, with tariff policy uncertainties exacerbating the risks of rising inflation and sluggish economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation [2] - The rise in inflation expectations has led the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cut cycle, maintaining the benchmark overnight rate at 4.25%-4.50% [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that future inflation is expected to be "notable" [2]