Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: After the Sino - US tariff eases, gold still has some adjustment needs in the short term but will be supported by factors like the US April CPI data and potential Fed rate cuts, so it may enter a consolidation phase with decreasing volatility; while silver will be supported by tariff relaxation in the short - term, performing more resiliently than gold, but its long - term upside is limited due to economic risks and weakening physical demand [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Tariff suspension doesn't cancel the trade - war background, the US economy faces "stagflation" risks, the Fed may cut rates in the second half of the year, and with the trend of de - dollarization and central bank gold - buying, gold still has long - term allocation value, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **15 - point price on May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025**: London gold spot decreased by 1.1% to $3227.98 per ounce, London silver spot dropped by 1.2% to $32.74 per ounce, COMEX gold fell by 1.1% to $3231.50 per ounce, COMEX silver declined by 1.3% to $32.89 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2508 decreased by 0.8% to 761.72 yuan per gram, AG2508 decreased by 0.6% to 8195 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.7% to 758.22 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.6% to 8163 yuan per kilogram [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Tracking**: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.5 yuan per gram on May 14, 2025, with a change of - 8.6% compared to May 13; silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 32 yuan per kilogram, also with a - 8.6% change. Gold's internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by 37.3% to 11.45 yuan per gram, and silver's internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by - 13.9% to - 350 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **As of May 13, 2025 vs. May 12, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.27% to 936.51 tons, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.21% to 13999.7497 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.22% to 237445 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.74% to 74948 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 0.50% to 162497 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 3.57% to 70335 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.38% to 21083 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 1.38% to 49252 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **As of May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 17238 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.36% to 919463 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.39% to 39270532 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.25% to 503481115 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Related Market Data - **As of May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 100.98, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.01% to 4.02%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.90% to 4.49%, NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.72% to 5886.55, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.20, VIX decreased by 0.92% to 18.22, and the S&P 500 increased by 2.70% to 63.63 [4]. 3.5 Market News - The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest since the inflation outbreak in spring 2021, and 0.2% month - on - month [4]. - The US House Ways and Means Committee announced the Trump tax reform plan, proposing to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade, cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion, and raise the national debt ceiling by $6 trillion [4]. 3.6 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On May 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.11% to 761.72 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.16% to 8195 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, gold may enter a consolidation phase, and silver shows more resilience; medium - to - long - term, gold still has allocation value and the strategy is to buy on dips [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in gold prices has sparked discussions about future trends, with prices dropping below $3200 per ounce, marking an over 8% decrease from April highs [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price - The rapid increase in gold prices in early April was driven by escalating U.S. tariffs, leading to a "triple hit" on assets, which highlighted a contraction in dollar credit [2] - Market speculation intensified during this period, accumulating price risks, while subsequent economic data from the U.S. indicated a slowdown, delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions on May 12 boosted market risk appetite, prompting a shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further exacerbating gold's price adjustment [2][6] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of inflation rising alongside economic downturns, creating a stagflation scenario [3] - The ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle are seen as core factors supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [3][5] - The trend of de-globalization and the ongoing expansion of U.S. debt are also contributing to a long-term bull market for gold, as dollar credit continues to contract [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - In April, global gold trading volumes surged, with an average daily trading volume of $441 billion, reflecting a 48% month-over-month increase [4] - Central bank demand remains a critical support factor for gold prices, driven by the diversification of global reserves and the decline in dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [5] - Investment demand for gold is bolstered by insufficient internal growth dynamics in the global economy and the resulting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic instability [5] Group 4: Short-term Investment Strategy - Current sentiment around gold is relatively weak, with potential further declines if prices drop below $3100 per ounce, possibly testing critical support levels around $2950 to $3000 [7] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains bullish, suggesting that recent price adjustments present buying opportunities for investors [7] Group 5: Future Price Projections - Institutions like UBS predict that gold prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $3800 per ounce under favorable conditions [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts supporting a bullish outlook for gold [10]

等待驱动，盘面窄幅波动 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 【冠通研究】 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开低走日内一路下行。近日宏观消息方面，中美会谈超预期提振了市场 的风险偏好水平，4 月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.3%。数据显示，剔除波动 较大的食品和能源价格后，4 月美国核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，目前看通胀水平不及预 期，强化了市场对于美联储降息的预期，支撑铜价上行。基本面情况来看，供应端偏紧 格局依然显现， 矿端偏紧格局为市场一致预期，同时冶炼厂成本偏高。截止 5 月 9 日， 现货粗炼费(TC)-43.6 美元/干吨,现货精炼费(RC)-4.37 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费继续扩 大负值，硫酸利润弥补少量亏损，但冶炼厂成本压力明显，但铜产量仍逆势上涨。美铜 库存大幅度拉升，导致其他地区供应偏紧显现，目前关税不确定性存在，美国虹吸铜仍 在继续，国内交易所显性库存连续去化，但去化幅度有所收窄。需求方面，下游对高价 有抵触心理。4 月线缆企业开工率达 86.3%，环比+3.2%，5 月订单预计环比增长 8-10%， 下游需求仍显韧性，关税政策缓和叠加国内增量政策，市场需求有所提振，但五月 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, trading around $3133, following a drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3167.94 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, closing at $3177.32 per ounce. This decline was attributed to increased risk appetite due to improved trade sentiment, leading investors to exit the gold market [1] - The US dollar index rebounded, rising 0.08% to 101.04, while US Treasury yields reached a six-week high, with the 10-year yield surpassing the critical 4.5% level at 4.536%. Changes in interest rate expectations have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased to 74%, down from earlier expectations of a potential cut in July [1] Trade Relations - The immediate catalyst for the drop in gold prices was the easing of global trade tensions, with the US and China agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs and pausing tariff imposition for 90 days. This positive news boosted market risk appetite, leading to a rise in major Wall Street indices as investors shifted from safe-haven assets to higher-risk investments. President Trump's comments about potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea further bolstered market confidence [2] Geopolitical Risks - Despite the easing trade tensions, geopolitical risks remain. Trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing slowly, with significant differences in agreement scope. The EU's trade commissioner has stated that they will not accept an unfair agreement under pressure. The US has imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, threatening to expand the scope of tariffs. The $9.5 trillion trade and investment relationship between the US and EU faces serious challenges, which could potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4] Market Dynamics - The recent adjustment in the gold market reflects both improved risk sentiment and profit-taking by investors following previous gains. The price of gold is likely to remain volatile due to the interplay of trade dynamics, monetary policy, and economic data. Investors should pay attention to the upcoming US April PPI data and retail sales figures, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cut expectations [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold recorded a significant bearish candle, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure. The price tested a one-month low around $3167 before stabilizing, indicating potential further declines. Traders should monitor the support level at $3150, with a risk of dropping to around $3060. In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the price has extended its decline after breaking below $3200, with ongoing tests around the $3130 level [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international precious metal futures have experienced a significant decline on May 15, 2025, with both gold and silver prices dropping across the board [1][2]. Price Movements - Domestic gold futures (沪金) closed at 739.82 CNY per gram, down 3.20% from the previous day, while domestic silver futures (沪银) closed at 8008.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.34% [1]. - International gold futures (COMEX) were priced at 3151.80 USD per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.91%, and international silver futures (COMEX) were at 32.04 USD per ounce, down 1.08% [1]. Market Analysis - On May 14, COMEX gold showed a downward trend, closing at 3180.7 USD per ounce, with a decline of 2.07% [4]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 8.3% [4].

美联储内部形成微妙共识分歧：政策制定者对外释放的信号充满张力。戴利坚持认为，劳动力市场供需 平衡持续改善，工资增速逐步回归常态化，通胀下行趋势未改；但美联储副主席杰斐逊却敲响警钟，指 出企业投资信心和家庭消费预期已现疲态，需警惕经济动能衰减的早期预警。特别值得注意的是，杰斐 逊将特朗普关税政策明确列为重大风险变量，认为贸易保护主义升级可能阻断通胀回落进程，甚至催生 新的物价上涨压力。这种"谨慎乐观与风险预警并存"的表述，折射出决策层对经济前景的研判分歧正在 扩大。 市场与联储的博弈进入关键阶段：尽管政策制定者保持战略定力，但利率期货市场已提前押注降息周 期。交易员普遍预期，美联储将在9月议息会议启动首次降息。但历史经验显示，市场预期与政策实操 往往存在时滞。当前局面的转折点取决于两个关键变量：若核心通胀出现顽固化迹象，或关税政策冲击 导致经济数据超预期恶化，美联储可能被迫调整政策路径；反之，若就业市场保持韧性、消费支出维持 稳定，降息窗口或将继续后移。这场关乎经济数据解读的博弈，正在进入最微妙的观察期。 通胀数据呈现的矛盾图景令决策更为复杂：4月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增幅收窄至2.3%，创2021 年以 ...

贵金属日报：波动加大 明显回调 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月15日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格明显调整，伦敦金价在跌破近期震荡区间下沿3200后加速下行，国内黄金ETF呈现流 出现象，其中华安黄金ETF份额从5月13日的82.2亿份，下降至81.5亿份。相较之下，伦敦银目前仍在震 荡区间内运行。周边美指先抑后扬，10Y美债收益率继续上行，美股涨跌不一。最终黄金2506合约收报 3180.7美元/盎司，-2.07%；美白银2507合约收报于32.39美元/盎司，-2.15%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合 约收报761.72元/克，-0.11%；SHFE白银2506合约收8195元/千克，+0.16%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 8.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为63.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34.2%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为2.6%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率31.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.7%，累计降息 ...

张津镭：黄金"高空时代"来临！PPI数据夜，谨防市场再掀风暴 昨日黄金走了一个大跌行情，白盘一直高位震荡，反弹至3235附近进场空单，毕竟还是跌势为主，止损 也适当拉大。随后美盘金价开始大跌，直接跌破3200关口，空单亦是于3180附近大赚止盈离场。最终金 价是收盘于3176美元，日线收于一个大阴线。 周四（5月15日）昨日市场上有消息称美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议"接近达成"。资金纷纷 从黄金这个"避风港"里跑出来，跑去拥抱那些风险资产，黄金需求就像坐滑梯一样。因此，现在黄金支 撑不是很强。 不过今晚将公布美国PPI数据，如果继续显示通胀放缓，美联储降息预期可能再升温，黄金或能喘口 气；但如果数据意外强劲，金价可能继续"自由落体，也就是要试探3100关口了。除非特朗普再出幺蛾 子或者中东俄乌冲突新的升级，不然现在局势就是高空为主了。 从技术上来看，日内黄金继续保持看调整预期，上方可关注3200整数关口压力，隔夜回弹仅至3197一 线，后半夜以及今日早盘回弹也均未过3195，所以日内短暂震荡后可能会再有下跌延续，下方关注3140 附近，此位也依然只是暂时的支撑，后期行情持续下跌力度增强的话，短期或可能 ...

周三，国际金价进一步下挫，因商场对交易协议的达观心情日益高涨，这很大程度上缓解了更深层次经济的担忧，抵消了提振避险需求的要 素。纽约产品交易所3个月期金时隔一个月再次失守3200美元关口。 与此同时，上海期货交易所的黄金期货交易量在4月也飙升至前史新高，并在5月初坚持高位。我国人民银行陈述称，4月份接连第六个月购买 黄金，使其黄金储藏增加2.2吨，目前为2295吨，占储藏财物总额的6.8%。 在高涨的需求推进下，上月上海黄金交易所实物交割153吨黄金，同比增长27%。批发黄金需求的改善也反映在黄金价格溢价的上升上，4月份 的均匀溢价为37美元/盎司，远高于3月份的2美元/盎司。 展望未来，国际黄金协会称，劳动节假期后我国黄金首饰的消费量将坚持温和，尽管最近价格调整可能会供给支撑黄金的出资需求，但心情受 制于获利回吐、价格区间波动和美中交易紧张局势降温。 经纪商TDS高级大宗产品策略师加里（Daniel Ghali）以为，周三金价调整首要由于我国ETF活动的放平缓地缘政治达观心情，但全球央行的潜 在支撑和组织惯性使双向危险并不对称。 远景怎么 截至收盘，金价已从上个月的3500美元高点下跌了9%。 我国4月黄金 ...

美指100.10-20区间多，防守5美金，目标101-101.80 宏观面 近期黄金市场波动剧烈，从历史高位显著回调，引发市场热议。其价格下跌主要受两大因素驱动：一是全球贸易紧张局势缓和，中美大幅降低关税并暂停部 分关税 90 天，极大提振市场风险偏好，投资者纷纷撤离避险资产，黄金需求下降；二是美元指数探底回升，周三美元指数上涨 0.08%，美国国债收益率也 创下六周新高，10 年期国债收益率突破 4.5%，美联储降息预期调整，使得黄金这类无息资产吸引力下降。不过，地缘政治风险并未完全消散，美欧贸易谈 判进展缓慢，未来或重新提振黄金避险需求。短期来看，贸易乐观情绪和美元走强或继续压制金价；但中长期，地缘政治不确定性、通胀压力及央行购金需 求将为金价提供支撑。投资者需密切关注贸易谈判、美国经济数据、美联储政策等因素，把握黄金市场波动中的投资机会。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周三美元指数呈现出探底回升态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至101.117的位置，最低则下探至100.242，最终以 101.046的价格收 盘。回顾周三市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线震荡运行，随后正如笔者所言价格进一步下跌，对于欧盘前价格接 ...